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COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS -Paradise,

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of October 1, 2012

Summary

Economy and a portion of the estimated 44,000 Housing Market Area other vacant units, which may return With recent improvements in , to the market. the leading industry in the Las Vegas- Paradise HMA, economic conditions Rental Market are slowly recovering from a 3-year period of job losses that ended in 2010. Rental housing market conditions in the HMA are currently soft, with a Lincoln During the 12 months ending Septem­- 10.5-percent estimated vacancy rate. Nye ber 2012, nonfarm payrolls increased by 7,100 jobs, or nearly 1 percent, to Although recent lower levels of multi-

Clark Nevada average 812,400 jobs, and the average family construction have helped con- ditions improve since 2010, a significant Inyo unemployment rate decreased from influx of investor-owned single-family Mohave 14.1 to 12.5 percent. and Encore , , MGM homes in the rental market prevented rent increases. No additional market- San Bernardino Grand Hotel & , and ARIA Resort & Casino Las Vegas, the lead- rate rental units should be constructed ing private employers in the HMA, in the HMA during the 3-year forecast The Las Vegas-Paradise Housing Mar-­ are located along the . period (Table 1) to allow for the ab­- ket Area (HMA), at the southern tip of Nonfarm payrolls are expected to in­- sorption of excess vacant units. Nevada, is coterminous with the Las crease by an average annual rate of Vegas-Paradise metropolitan statistical 1.6 percent during the next 3 years. area and with Clark County. The HMA Table 1. Housing Demand in the is home to the largest casino gaming Sales Market Las Vegas-Paradise HMA, market in the nation, with gaming 3-Year Forecast, October 1, revenues of $9.4 billion and nearly 40 Sales housing market conditions in 2012, to October 1, 2015 million visitors during the 12 months the HMA are currently soft, with Las Vegas-Paradise HMA ending September 2012, according to a 5.5-percent estimated vacancy Sales Rental the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors rate. During the 12 months ending Units Units Authority (LVCVA). September 2012, existing home sales Total demand 6,350 0 totaled 48,800, down nearly 7 percent Under compared with the number sold dur- construction 2,000 1,400 ing the preceding 12 months. During Notes: Total demand represents estimated Market Details production necessary to achieve a balanced Economic Conditions...... 2 the next 3 years, demand is estimated market at the end of the forecast period. for 6,350 new homes with prices start- Units under construction as of October 1, Population and Households...... 5 2012. A portion of the estimated 44,000 ing at $125,000 (Table 1). Some of the other vacant units in the HMA will likely Housing Market Trends...... 7 demand will be satisfied by the 2,000 satisfy some of the forecast demand. Source: Estimates by analyst Data Profile...... 12 homes currently under construction Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLabor Statistics Note: Current isbasedon12-month averages through September 2012. Figure 1. – 50 Economic Conditions – 40 SectorGrowthinthe – 30 – 20 – 10 0 Las Vegas-Paradise HMA 10 average 39,400jobs, or annual rateof ity, payrolls nonfarm increased byan strongtourismandbuildingactiv of posted substantialjobgains. Because increased, theeconomy intheHMA housing andmajorhotel-casinoresorts activity forbothresidential struction into theHMAacceleratedandcon­ 16,600, or2.4percent.Asmigration creased atanaverage annual rateof by thenationalrecessionasjobsin­ payrollsfarm were relatively unaffected 2010. From 2000through2002,non- joblossesthatendedin period of are slowly recovering froma3-year E currently withhomesalesat928,000 gains. payrolls Nonfarm peakedcon­ respectively, payroll totalnonfarm of accounting for21and18percent, job growth from2003through2007, sectorsledthe and businessservices and hospitalitytheprofessional or 7.2percent,in2005.Theleisure 58,900jobs, with apeakgrowth of 4.9 percent,from2003through2007, 20 LasVegas-Paradise HMA conomic conditionsinthe 30 40 , PercentageChange,2000toCurrent 50 60 -

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Economic recovery beganinlate2011 date.current by sectorfrom2000throughthe Figure 1illustratesnetjobgrowth thetotaljobloss. sented 16percentof sector, whichlost19,700jobs,­ repre 2010, alljoblossesfrom2008through cent of 57,900 jobsandaccountedfor47per­ subsectordeclinedby construction the softeningsaleshousingmarket, in housingproductionresponseto declines jobs, or9.4percent.Becauseof percent; in2009,thelosswas 85,400 41,500jobs, or4.7 age annual rateof payrollsnonfarm declinedbyanaver ­ jobs in2007.From 2008through2010, with payrolls duringthepreceding relatively unchanged compared 2011,whichwasending September 805,300 jobsduringthe12months payrollsson, nonfarm averaged 2012.Bycompari ending September 812,400 jobsduringthe12months 1 percent,orby7,100jobs, toaverage payrollsNonfarm increasednearly and hasslowly gainedmomentum. 80 and theleisurehospitality Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Transportation &utilities Manufacturing Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Wholesale &retail trade Mining, logging,&construction Information

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Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Numbers maynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding. Notes: Basedon12-monthaveragesthroughSeptember2011and September2012. Figure 3. Table 2. Figure 2. Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics Note: Basedon12-monthaveragesthroughSeptember2012. Labor force & Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Goods-producing sectors resident employment Service-providing sectors 1,010,000 Government Otherservices Leisure &hospitality Education&healthservices  Financialactivities Information Transportation &utilities Wholesale&retail trade Manufacturing Mining,logging,&construction Economic Conditions 610,000 710,000 810,000 910,000 Leisure &hospitality32.9% Professional &businessservices

Paradise HMA,bySector 12-Month Average NonfarmPayroll JobsintheLasVegas-

ment Rateinthe Trends inLaborForce,ResidentEmployment,andUnemploy by Sector Current NonfarmPayroll JobsintheLasVegas-Paradise HMA, Labor force 2000 Other services3.0% Education &healthservices9.0% 2001 Government 11.3% Government

2002

2003 Las Vegas-ParadiseHMA,

Continued

Resident employment 2004 September 2011 2005 12 Months 258,500 101,000 113,900 746,700 805,300 Ending 12 months ending September 2012, 12 monthsendingSeptember average payrolls bysector. Duringthe and payrolls current bysector, share of 12-month period.Figure2shows the 94,500 23,600 71,500 39,700 34,800 19,500 39,100 58,600 Mining, logging,&construction4.5%

2006 9,300 Table 2shows the12-month Manufacturing 2.4% 2007 services 12.3% Professional &business

2008 Wholesale &retail trade14.2% September 2012 Financial activities4.7% Transportation &utilities4.4% Information 1.2% 12 Months 267,200 115,700 755,800 812,400

2009 Ending 2000Through2011 92,000 24,300 73,200 99,900 38,200 35,900 19,800 36,800 56,600 9,400 Unemployment rate

2010

2011 Change Percent – 2.6 – 1.1 – 3.9 – 6.0 – 3.5 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 3.1 3.4 2.3 1.3 3.1 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Unemployment rate - Hospital andmultiple VA clinics, the LasVegasthe $600millionNorth VA Despite theAugust 2012openingof expand forthe22ndconsecutive year. sectorcontinued to health services healthcare services, theeducation and With gainsprimarily inambulatory below payroll levels recordedin2008. sale andretailtradesectorsremained leisure andhospitalitythewhole­ recent strong additions to payrolls, the 2.3 percent,respectively. Despitethe 1,800, and1,700jobs, or3.4,1.7,and sectors, whichincreasedby8,700, and educationhealthservices hospitality, wholesaleandretailtrade, growth was ledbytheleisureand 12 months ending September 2012, the 2012, the 12 monthsending September the LVCVA indicatedthat,during the for oneinevery threejobs. Datafrom leisure andhospitalitysectoraccounts Las Vegas-Paradise HMA,andthe Tourism inthe istheleadingindustry through 2011. the unemployment ratefrom2000 labor force, resident employment, and period. Figure 3illustrates trends in 14.1 percentinthepreceding12-month HMA was 12.5 percent, down from the average unemployment ratein the 2012, the 12months ending September in thefinancial 1,500jobs, or3.9percent, decrease of contributedtothe other creditservices banksand sector. Consolidationsof sub­ or 6.1percent,intheconstruction 2,400jobs, ledtoadeclineof Airport, June International 2012atMcCarran $2.4 billionTerminal 3thatopened projects,infrastructure suchasthenew majorpublic and thecompletionof weakness inthehomesalesmarket budget cuts. Persistent because of nated atthelocalgovernment level primarily because2,400jobswere elimi­ 2,500jobs, or2.6percent, a lossof government sectorasawholerecorded activities sector. During - - -

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Source: NevadaDepartment ofEmployment,Training, andRehabilitation Note: Excludeslocal schooldistricts. Table 3. Rio AllSuitesHotel &Casino University ofNevada,LasVegas Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Caesars PalaceLasVegas Mandalay BayHotel&Casino ARIA MGM GrandHotel&Casino Bellagio Wynn LasVegas Clark County Economic Conditions Resort&CasinoLasVegas Name ofEmployer

Major Employersinthe

Continued Nonfarm Payroll Sector Leisure &hospitality Government Government Leisure &hospitality Leisure &hospitality Leisure &hospitality Leisure &hospitality Leisure &hospitality Leisure &hospitality Government Las Vegas-Paradise HMA the LVCVA, duringthe12monthsend­ levels reachedin2007.Accordingto employment remainbelow thepeak record levels, gamingrevenue and to Although visitorcountsreturned than the90percentrecordedin2007. preceding 12-monthperiodbutlower the 83percentrecordedduring period, whichisslightly higherthan 12-month the HMAduringcurrent percent forthe150,600hotelroomsin that average hoteloccupancywas 84 peakattendance. TheLVCVAof noted 39.2millionin2007,thelastyear of thevisitorcount 2 percent,surpassing creased to39.5million,upmorethan visitorstotheHMAin­ number of employees and is part of the $9 billion employees of and is part private employer hasatleast7,000 Casino LasVegas, largest thefourth least 8,000people. ARIAResort & opened in2007andnow employs at Las Vegas andEncoreHotel,which the LasVegas Strip, ledbytheWynn the HMA(Table 3)arelocatedalong The seven largest private employers in 273,100jobs inthissector.level of a 4-year highbutisstillbelow the2007 sector averaged 267,200jobs, whichis payrolls intheleisureandhospitality During thesame12-monthperiod, $10.9billion. the 2007peakrevenue of billion, whichis13percentlessthan increased nearly 4percentto$9.4 2012, gamingrevenueing September 4,500–4,999 5,000–5,499 5,000–5,499 5,000–5,499 6,500–6,999 7,000–7,499 7,500–7,999 7,500–7,999 8,000–8,499 8,000–8,499 Employees Number of -

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services sectors.services Growth willbecon­ trade andtheeducationhealth marily fromthewholesaleandretail Employment gainsareexpected pri­ with growth acceleratingeachyear. 1.6 percentduringthenext 3years crease byanaverage annual rateof payrollsNonfarm areexpected toin­ and condominiumunits. ing approximately 6,000hotelrooms retail complex andfive towers offer­ that time. CityCenter now includesa projectinthenationat construction Dubai World, was thelargest single and tween MGMResorts International in 2009.CityCenter, be­ apartnership CityCenter complex, whichopened beginning by2016. Accordingtothe research facility, withconstruction city tobuilda$395millionmedical Cleveland Cliniccontractedwiththe by Cleveland ClinicHealthSystem. andlateracquired Health was completed in2010 2012. TheLouRuvo CenterforBrain arts,forming whichwas completedin 2,050-seat SmithCenterfortheper­ projects, includingthe$248million, is beingredeveloped withnumerous railroad yard indowntown LasVegas, Symphony Park, a220-acreformer realestateacquisitionsin 2012. of pany’s expansion and$45million withthecom­ retail activity starting plans torevitalize commercialand by Tony Hsieh,.com’s founder, Downtown Project,privately funded employees willbehiredby2015. nounced thatatleastanother2,000 in October2013.Zappos.com an­ hall afterrenovations arecompleted LasVegasHMA, totheformer city from Henderson,whichisalsointhe employees, willrelocateitsheadquarters Online retailerZappos.com, with1,200 town areacontinues toberedeveloped. cen­ trated inLasVegas asthedown -

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Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 Economic Conditions Population andHouseholds

Continued or 0.7percent,sinceApril2010.The an average 13,900, annual increaseof estimated at1.99millionrepresenting T million $100 town Grandwillfinishits plans.ing earlyIn 2013, the Down several hotel-casinoscomplete remodel­ the leisureandhospitalitysectoras subsectorand from theconstruction LVCVA, modestgrowth isalsoexpected conditions inthe HMA. weakening employment because of date from 2010throughthecurrent the HMAeachyear thanmoved in Approximately 700morepeople left growth. accounting for53percentof through 2009,withnetin-migration or 1.9percent,annually from2007 tion growth slowed to35,800people, thatgrowth. Popula­ for 81percentof accounting percent, within-migration average 68,500,or4.4 annual rateof the populationgrew rapidly atan From 2000through2006, California. new residentsoriginatingfrom of nation, withapproximately 30percent attracts peoplefromevery stateinthe intotheHMA.TheHMA migration of led todecreasingrates out thecountry sales housingmarketconditionsthrough­ employment conditionsandthesoft significantly since2007becauseweak Population growth intheHMAslowed ily inParadise. Manor. TheLasVegas Stripisprimar­ Paradise, SpringValley, andSunrise Enterprise, towns of the unincorporated Las Vegas, LasVegas and North and Henderson, arethethreecitiesof theLasVegas major communities of Paradise HMAiscurrently he populationintheLasVegas------

annual rate of 3.4percent,whichis annual rateof households increasedbyanaverage 2000 through2010,thenumber of is currently estimatedat747,600.From householdsintheHMA The number of by2014. begin construction LasVegas to contract withthecityof hotel, TheCharliePalmer, isalsounder 650 hotelrooms. Theplanned400-suite Casino inLasVegas andwilloffer Lady theformer Luck remodeling of tion growth ratesanticipated during 2010 Censusbutissimilarto popula 1.8-percent raterecordedsince the cast period,whichisslower thanthe or 6,900households, duringthefore­ at anaverage 0.9 percent, annual rateof householdsisexpected toincrease of from 2007through2009.Thenumber 18,850people nual of netin-migration is substantially below theaverage an­ average 4,450peopleannually, which isanticipatedto Net in-migration intotheHMA. in-migration support the forecastperiodasjobgrowth 20,650, or 1.0 percent, through rate of pated toincreaseatanaverage annual The populationintheHMAisantici­ and smallerhouseholds. new kets encouraged of theformation costs inboththesalesandrentalmar­ growth becausethedeclininghousing exceededhold formation population 0.7percentannually.average of House­ cent whilethepopulationgrew an by anaverage 1.8per­ annual rateof householdsincreased the number of period. From date, 2010tothecurrent populationduringthesame rate of close tothe3.6-percent annual growth - - - -

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Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 Population andHouseholds

Continued Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census and2010Census;current—estimatesbyanalyst Figure 6. Figure 4. illustrate trendsinpopulationand totheHMA.Figures4and5 to return familiesisexpected of net in-migration people toselltheirhomesmorereadily, recover nationwide, whichwillenable the next 3years. Ashousingmarkets by analyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast—estimates Figure 5. by analyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast—estimates 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

50,000 Average annual change Average annual change – 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 5,000 0 0

0 HMA, Number ofHouseholdsbyTenureinthe HMA, Population andHouseholdGrowth inthe Paradise HMA, Components ofPopulationChangeinthe

2000toForecast 2000 toCurrent 2000 to2010 2000 2000 to2010 2000toForecast Net naturalchange Population Renter

2010 tocurrent 2010 tocurrent 2010 the current date.the current holds bytenure from2000through house­ thenumberFigure 6depicts of theforecastperiod,respectively.through population change from2000 nents of household growth andthecompo Owner Households Net migration Las Vegas-Paradise Las Vegas-Paradise Las Vegas- Current toforecast Current toforecast Current - -

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Housing Market TrendsHousing sales level of 51,750 from 2008 through 51,750from2008through sales level of was alsolessthantheaverage annual 12 months. salesvolume Thecurrent the number soldduringtheprevious down nearly 7percent and condominiumstotaled48,800, ing single-family homes, exist 2012,salesof ending September CoreLogic, Inc., duringthe 12 months by the2010Census. Accordingto less thanthe6.2-percentraterecorded cancy rate. vacancy The current rateis soft, withanestimated5.5-percentva­ Las Vegas-Paradise HMAarecurrently Sales housingmarketconditionsinthe Sales Market existing homesalespricesaveraged 2012, 12 monthsending September ceding 12-monthperiod.During the down from65percentduring thepre­ in themostrecent12-monthperiod, allexisting homesales 57 percentof salesconstituted 2009. REOandshort and peakingasa75-percentsharein 2006 toa16-percentsharein2007 existing homesalesfrom2000through all rising fromlessthan2percentof as thesesalesbecamemorecommon, exert downward pressureonprices salesbeganto REO homesandshort in 2008,theyjumpedto6.9percent. status increasedquickly to3.6percent; loansinforeclosure orREO centage of in late2007, the per­ Owned). Starting or transitionedintoREO(Real Estate allactive loanswere inforeclosure of an average 1.0percent annual rateof 2006, $347,500.From 2000through high of increase until2007,whenitreacheda anexisting homecontinued to price of existing homessold,theaverage sales sales activity peakedin2004at71,900 provided somestimulus. from April2008throughMay 2010, whichwas tax creditprogram, ineffect 2010, whenthefirst-timehomebuyer CoreLogic, Inc., recordedthat compared with townhomes, Although

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90 ormoredays delinquent,were in homeloansintheHMAthatwere of to LPSAppliedAnalytics, thepercent double thenationallevel. According and arelative basis, asitisnearly extremely highbothonanabsolute been decreasingsince2010butremains Foreclosure activity intheHMAhas during theprevious 12-month period. tively, comparedwithaverage prices less-than-1-percent decrease, respec increase, a10-percentdecrease, anda ular resales, a2-percent reflecting sales,for short and$149,200forreg­ $113,600 forREOhomes, $148,700 CityCenter and .CityCenter and Turnberry ects targeting seasonalbuyers included homes forseasonaluse. Notableproj­ were marketedtobuyers seeking per squarefoot,thesecondominiums With at$600 originalprices starting primarily alongtheLasVegas Strip. ium towers builtduringthe2000s highrisecondomin­ luxury consists of home.ium a primary The first segment buyer intendstomakethecondomin­ onwhetherthe segments depending Vegas-Paradise HMAhastwo distinct The condominiummarketintheLas going intoforeclosure. loans processing andthenumber of loansin reduced boththenumber of ing theforeclosureprocess, AB284 ing morerequirementsonlendersdur­ took effectin October 2011. Assembly BillNo. 284(AB284), Nevada thepassage of because of The declineinforeclosureactivity is 7.4percentinOctober2012. figure of anational Applied Analytics reported October 2010.Bycomparison,LPS tober 2011andfrom20.1percentin 2012, down from16.1percentinOc­­ declined to14.0percentinOctober1, foreclosure, ortransitionedintoREO y impos­- By which which

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Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalyst Notes: Includestownhomes. Includesdatathrough September2012. Figure 7. 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 5,000 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing 0

Single-Family BuildingPermitsIssuedinthe 2000 Paradise HMA,

2001 Continued

2002

2003 2000to2012

2004

2005 prices decreased 59 percent, to $290,100, prices decreased59percent,to$290,100, soft market.Asaresult,average sales unitswere addedtothe 2009 creased 5percent,to$720,500.During homes, andtheaverage salespricein­ units solddeclined49percent,to1,425 condominium to 2008,thenumber of Living, LLC, that, from 2007 reported . HiRise these kindsof LLC, aREALTOR inventory, accordingtoHiRiseLiving, condominium were addedtotheluxury fected until2008,when3,500units projectswas relatively unaf­ types of in2006,salesactivity atthese starting As theoverall salesmarketweakened 8,650 existing condominiumssold, 2012, 12 monthsendingSeptember REALTORS Greater LasVegas Associationof cash purchases. Accordingtothe are generally moreabletomakeall- requirements astheseasonalbuyers currently affectedbystricterfinancing ownership byyear-round residents, is The secondsegment,condominium increased 22percent,to$283,200. in 2011,andtheaverage salesprice to 750homes, from thesameperiod condominiums solddeclined25percent, luxury 2012,thenumberSeptember of in 2010.Duringthe9monthsending in 2009and22percent,to$225,200, 2006 and 2010, another 2,725 luxury and 2010,another2,725luxury 2007

2008 ® (GLVAR), duringthe

2009 ® Las Vegas- specializingin 2010

2011

2012

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in thelast4years. sales activity intheLasVegas Valley GLVAR20 percentof totalhome approximatelyum salesrepresented $240,000.Condomini 2007 peakof salespricedeclines fromthe years of the firstincreaseafter4consecutive the preceding12-monthperiodand was than $83,050,3percentgreater anexisting condominium price of 2012,theaverageSeptember sales 2011. Duringthe12monthsending 3,275 salesin2007to10,050 increased eachyear fromalow of By comparison,condominiumsales during thepreceding12-monthperiod. a 15-percentdeclinefromthesales ing theprevious 12-monthperiod. increase fromthenumber issueddur­ issued for5,550homes, a47-percent were 2012,permits ending September data,duringthe12months preliminary from 2009through2011.Basedon 4,075 homeswere annually permitted each year until2009.Anaverage of 40percent with anaverage decreaseof thendeclined significantly,permitted single-family homes The number of family homesannually (Figure7). 25,800single- issued foranaverage of were2000 through2005,permits in2006.From starting permitted, single-family homes the number of activity,construction asmeasuredby itable. Buildersreducednew home new homeslessprof of construction pushed down quickly, renderingthe during 2007,homepriceswere enteredthesalesmarket properties 7 percentduring2006.Asdistressed 38,450 homessold,anditdeclined home salespeakedin2005,when new CoreLogic, Inc., thevolume of single-family homes. Accordingto new also adversely affectedsalesof foreclosure activity The highlevel of

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Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Source: Estimatesbyanalyst 44,000 other vacantunitsintheHMA willlikelysatisfysome oftheforecast demand. Note: The2,000homescurrently underconstructionandaportionoftheestimated Table 4. Sales Market Market TrendsHousing

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousinginthe Las Vegas-Paradise HMA,October1,2012,to2015 400,000 350,000 300,000 275,000 225,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 From Price Range($) Continued and higher 399,999 349,999 299,999 274,999 224,999 174,999 149,999 To miniums totaled5,075,down nearly family homes, townhomes, andcondo­ new single- 2012,salesof September Inc., duringthe12monthsending investors. AccordingtoCoreLogic, all-cash transactions, mostlikely from sales inthepast2years have been allhome that50percentof reported easier optiontobuy. TheGLVAR buyers toconsidernew homesan existing homes, however, ledsome petition frominvestors purchasing prices andattractbuyers. Strongcom­ downsized squarefootage tolower ing activity recently increased.Builders family homeseven thoughhomebuild­ Demand remainsweak fornew single- 2009. The availability of thetax 2009. Theavailability of 18percentthrough annual rateof and thendecreasedbyanaverage sold peakedat$379,400in2007 anew home The average priceof homebuyer taxcredit was available. through 2010,whenthefirst-time new homessoldannually from2008 7,050 comparison, anaverage of less than1percentto$217,900.By and theaverage salespricedeclined sold duringtheprevious 12months, 3 percentcomparedwiththenumber Demand Units of 1,275 1,275 1,275 190 190 570 640 950 Percent of Total 10.0 15.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 3.0 3.0 9.0

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listing prices starting at$145,000.In listing pricesstarting Solera atStallionMountain,with its840-home, age-restricted cent of Webb Las Vegas. rim,Del Intheeastern the Raven Hillsubdivision inNorth lis AirForce Base, andat$138,000in $120,000 inSunriseManor, nearNel , at listing pricesstart Valley. the of part Inthenorthern theLasVegas the outerperimeterof activity along iscurrently occurring new construction levelThe greatest of decline from2009. was a1-percent $237,500,reflecting in 2010,whentheaverage salesprice credit temporarily stabilizedprices a portion of demand. of a portion tothesalesmarketwillsatisfy return 44,000 othervacant unitsthatmay theestimated and someof construction single-family homescurrently under under $225,000(Table 4).The2,000 new homeswillbeforthosepriced thedemandfor Nearly 60percentof as employment conditions improve. theforecastperiod subsequent year of Demand isexpected toincreaseeach at$125,000(Tableprices starting 1). single-family homesintheHMA,with anticipated for6,350new market-rate, During thenext 3years, demandis $160,000 inSummerlin. Courtyards, at withpricesstarting Homes, Inc., isbuildingWest Park Enterprise. Inthewest, William Lyon at$130,000Trissino,starting in Homes haslistingprices StoryBook at Inspirada,inHenderson,and inthe$130,000s listing pricesstarting valley,the southern KBHomehas ® issellingtheremaining10per­

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Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesbyanalyst Figure 8. 10.0 12.0 14.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Housing Market TrendsHousing

2000 toCurrent Rental Vacancy Ratesinthe 2000 9.7

Continued 2010 13.4 cated that 37 percent of allrenter cated that37percentof American Community Survey indi­ market.The ment intheapartment however, prevented notableimprove rental marketduringthepast4years, owned single-family homesinthe investor- of 2010. Asignificantinflux have helpedconditionsimprove since from2008through2011 construction multifamily(Figure 8).Lower levels of the 13.4-percentvacancy ratein2010 10.5-percent vacancy rate, down from currently soft,withanestimated in theLasVegas-Paradise HMAare Rental housingmarketconditions Rental Market third quarter of 2012. of third quarter bedroom units, respectively, inthe and $940forone-,two-, andthree- averaged approximately $650,$780, 2008.Askingrents of third quarter $850recordedinthe last peakof rents remainsignificantly below the 2011. Average of quarter from theaverage rentinthesame 2012,unchanged of the thirdquarter rentsaveragedApartment $740in 2011. of percent inthethirdquarter 2012,down from8.4 of third quarter vacancy ratewas 7.9percentinthe MPF Research, rental theapartment a single-family house. Accordingto new renterhouseholdsoccupied cent of through 2011,approximately 53per­ homes in2011andthat,from2007 households lived insingle-family Las Vegas-Paradise HMA, Current 10.5

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average asking rent of $940,accord average askingrentof with a4.4-percentvacancy rateandan ing areawas southwest LasVegas, ­ 2012,thestrongest perform of quarter allunitsduring2008.Inthethird of 2011anddown from38percent of allunitsinthethirdquarter percent of 2012,down from52 of third quarter units offeredconcessionsduringthe all 8percent.Only 22percentof of the concessionremainedanaverage offering concessionsdeclinedeven as units cent intotal,theprevalence of significantly since2008,down 13per­ Because average rentshave declined family unitswere annually permitted approximatelyaverage 8,650multi­ of homes. From 2001through2007,an single-family rental of from theinflux ket conditionsfromsoftening further since 2008,whichhelpedprevent mar­ hasbeen slowpermitted, intheHMA units as measuredbythenumber of activity,Multifamily construction to achieve occupancylevel. thecurrent allunits concession on31percentof this areaneededtooffera10-percent 2009inSummerlin/TheLakes, of units were addedinthefirstquarter 2010.Although260 of first quarter absorbing a310-unitcomplex inthe 2011after levels of inthefirstquarter Valley attainedstabilizedoccupancy $870.Green average askingrentof had a5.8-percentvacancy rateandan Summerlin/The Lakesarea,which $800,andthe average askingrentof a 5.0-percentvacancy rateandan the GreenValley area,whichhad The next strongest marketswere in 2011. of inthesecondquarter tory 180 unitswere addedtorentalinven­ 2012because of the secondquarter area attainedstabilizedoccupancyin ing toMPFResearch. Thesouthwest -

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Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 11 Sources: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey;estimates byanalyst Notes: Excludestownhomes.IncludesdatathroughSeptember2012. Figure 9. 10,000 12,000 14,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 Rental Market Market TrendsHousing

Multifamily BuildingPermitsIssuedinthe Paradise HMA, 2000

2001 Continued

2002

2003 2000to2012

2004

2005 period areestimatedforowner occu­ family 12-month unitsinthecurrent multi approximately 15percent of That percentage hassincefallen,and werepermits forcondominium units. allmultifamily mately 37percentof from 2004through2007,approxi risingsalesactivity,time of especially ceding 12-monthperiod.Duringthe with thenumber duringpre­ permitted ber 2012,down 21percentcompared during the12monthsendingSeptem 1,150 multifamily unitswere permitted annually. data, Basedonpreliminary 2,700 multifamily unitspermitted the average declined69percentto (Figure 9).From 2008through2011, 2006 projectin est isa660-unitapartment thelarg­ currently underconstruction, pancy. the1,400multifamily units Of

2007

2008 Las Vegas- 2009

2010

2011

2012 - - -

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median income. Ovation Develop thearea 50percentof seniors earning two-bedroom unitsthatarelimitedto for the$500one-bedroomand$590 2012 andwas completebyJune 2012 tober 2012.PreleasingbeganinApril Deer SpringWay byOc anticipates completingthe75-unit Vegas Valley. Nevada H.A.N.D., Inc., residents locatedthroughouttheLas projects limitedtoelderly ordisabled 2013,and260unitsinfive spring of son, scheduledforcompletioninthe complex inHender anapartment of are320units Also underconstruction 2013. completion inthesummerof LasVegasNorth thatistargeted for will satisfyallthedemand. units currently underconstruction excess available vacant unitsand the (Table supply 1).Thecurrent of during the3-year forecastperiod intheHMA should beconstructed additional market-raterentalunits Because therentalmarketissoft,no median income. thearea no morethan40percentof will offer65unitstothoseearning 2013. Thismixed-income complex inlate Mountain SeniorApartments ment willcompletethe75-unitLone - - - Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 12 Data Profile Table DP-1. Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalyst and the12monthsthrough September 2012. Median FamilyIncomesare for 1999,2009,and2011. Employment data represent annual averages for 2000, 2010, rounding. of because totals to add not may Notes: Numbers Median FamilyIncome Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Nonfarm payroll jobs Unemployment rate Total resident employment Las Vegas-Paradise HMA

1,375,765 $48,900 559,799 209,419 302,834 512,253 697,700 693,933 40.9% 59.1% 2000 9.7% 2.6% 4.6% DataProfile, 2000toCurrent 1,951,269 $65,400 840,343 307,159 408,206 715,365 803,600 853,969 2010 13.4% 42.9% 57.1% 14.1% 6.2% 1,986,000 $63,400 855,100 337,500 410,200 747,700 812,400 861,100 Current 10.5% 45.1% 54.9% 12.5% 5.5%

2000 to2010 Average AnnualChange(%) 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.0 3.4 3.6 1.4 2.1 2010 toCurrent – 1.5 0.7 3.8 0.2 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 13 pdf publications/pdf/CMARtables_LasVegasNV_13. market forthisHMA,goto For tothehousing additionaldatapertaining building permits. single-family andmultifamily the discussionsof activity. theseestimates areincludedin Someof thisadditional construction makes anestimateof As aresult,theanalyst, through diligent fieldwork, intheresidential buildingpermits.not reflected are some unitsclassifiedascommercialstructures For buildingpermit. example, a differenttypeof orareissued or createdwithoutabuildingpermit occurs inanHMA.Someunitsareconstructed sarily allresidentialbuildingactivity that reflect Building Permits: donotneces­ Buildingpermits Census Bureau. specifiedas“other”vacantthe category bythe workers;or occasionaluse;usedbymigrant and but notoccupied;heldforseasonal,recreational, thereforeincludes unitsrentedorsold The term units thatarenotavailable forsaleorrent. analysis, othervacant unitsincludeallvacant Housing andUrbanDevelopment’s (HUD’s) Other Vacant Units:IntheU.S. of Department the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousingproduction the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis Forecast period:10/1/2012–10/1/2015— date:10/1/2012—Analyst’sCurrent estimates 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. Decennial Census 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. Decennial Census Data DefinitionsandSources Analyst’s estimates . www.huduser.org/publications/econdev/mkt_analysis.html For onothermarketareas, additionalreports please goto www.huduser.org/

The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport housing marketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis builders, mortgagees, withlocal andothersconcerned tion, findings, andconclusionsmay alsobeusefulto HUDinitsoperations. Thefactualinforma guidance of This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeenprepared [email protected] 415–489–6518 HUDRegional Office Pamela J. Leong, Economist Contact Information on localeconomicandhousingmarketconditions. government officials whoprovided dataandinformation sourcesandstate local appreciation tothoseindustry fied bysubsequentdevelopments. HUDexpresses its sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusionsmay bemodi datefromlocalandnational tion available ontheas-of ­ as possiblebasedoninforma are asthoroughandcurrent and MarketAnalysis Division. Theanalysis andfindings guidelines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economic . - - -