Age and Ethnic Structure NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 6 Taranaki Region, June 2014 With 16.1 per cent aged 65+ years in 2013, the population of the Taranaki Region is New Zealand’s sixth-oldest (of 16 regions; nationally 14.2 per cent is aged 65+ years). However age structures differ markedly by ethnic group. Figure 7 compares the age structures of the Taranaki Region’s European and Ma ori populations*, which account for 76 and 15 per cent of the total (compared with 65 and 13 per cent nationally—note that these data are based on multiple count ethnicity and thus sum to more than 100 per cent). In 2013 the median age for the region’s Ma ori population was 23.6 years (that is, one-half of the Ma ori population was aged less than 24 years), compared with 41.1 years for those of TARANAKI REGION – KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS European origin. The graphs also show how each population has aged structurally since 2001 (unshaded bars), due to 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 6 3 the demographic changes already discussed. The Taranaki Region is somewhat less multi-ethnic than is the case nationally, with just 1.4 per cent Pacific Island, 3.0 per cent Asian, 0.4 per cent Middle Eastern/Latin American/African, Natalie Jackson and 4.5 per cent ‘not identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per cent respectively at national level. Inside this issue: Taranaki Region Population Size and Growth Figure 7: Age Structure: Taranaki Region, European and Māori 2001 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars) Components of 2 European Mäori Change by 85+ 85+ The population of the Taranaki Region has grown slowly over the past 27 years, from 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 107,499 in 1986 to 109,700 in 2011 and 110,500 in 2013 (+2.8 per cent), albeit 70-74 70-74 Taranaki has New Zea- 65-69 65-69 experiencing a period of decline between 1996 and 2001 (Figure 1). The population is 2 60-64 60-64 land’s sixth-oldest Re- Migration by Age 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 gional population, but— projected to grow slowly over the next two decades with the Statistics New Zealand medium
45-49 45-49 Males
40-44 Males 40-44 Females
Females series projections (2006-base) indicating a population of 111,460 by 2031. However 35-39 35-39 as elsewhere—the popu-
Age Group (years)GroupAge 30-34
Age Group (years)GroupAge 30-34 25-29 25-29 lation of European origin numbers could range as high as 125,500 (high series) or as low as 97,750 (low series). Taranaki’s Movers 3 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 is relatively old, and the and Stayers 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 Figure 1: Population of Taranaki Region 1986-2011 and projected to 2031 0-4 0-4 population of Māori 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 origin, extremely young. Population Ageing 3 Percentage at each age group Percentage at each age group Source: Statistics New Zealand, Area of Usual Residence (2001, 2006 and 2013) and Ethnic Group (Total Responses) by Age (Five Year Groups) and Sex For the census Observed (ERP) High Medium Low usually resident population count Notes: *Statistics New Zealand's Multiple Count method of enumeration means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group 140,000 125,500 Age and Ethnic 4 120,000 109,700 107,499 111,460 Structure Summary 100,000 97,750 Summary 4 80,000 The population of the Taranaki Region has grown slowly Net migration gains at younger and several older ages par- over the past 27 years, from 107,499 in 1986 to 109,700 tially offset that loss, but are not perfect substitutes because Number 60,000 in 2011 and 110,500 in 2013 (+2.8 per cent). The popu- the sustained loss at young adult ages compounds over time 40,000 to reduce the primary reproductive age group (20-39 lation is projected to grow slowly over the next two dec- 20,000 ades with the Statistics New Zealand medium series pro- years), and thus the number of children. The trends have resulted in the Taranaki Region having the sixth-oldest pop- 0 jections indicating a population of 111,460 by 2031. 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 ulation of New Zealand’s 16 regions, albeit the region is not However numbers could range as high as 125,500 (high Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update) series) or as low as 97,750 (low series). ageing as fast as many. Mover and stayer data indicate that between 71 and 76 per Components of Change The major cause of the region’s growth is natural increase, cent of those enumerated as living in the Taranaki Region National Institute of with net migration loss occurring across most of the on Census night at the past four Censuses had been living The major component of the Taranaki Figure 2: Components of change: Taranaki Region Demographic and 1990s and 2000s, but decreasingly so. Increasingly, Economic Analysis there 5 years previously. Auckland has increasingly provid- Region’s population growth has long been ‘natural increase’ will be driven by growth at 65+ years, as (NIDEA) ed the region’s largest gains of internal migrants, followed natural increase (the difference the baby boomer cohorts move into these age groups and Natural Increase Estimated Net Migration Net Change by Manawatu-Wanganui, Waikato and Wellington. The between births and deaths) (Figure 2). 1,500 Faculty of Arts & Social numbers rise due to increasing longevity. Eventually the same regions feature as the main destinations for Tarana- Significant net migration loss occurred Sciences, same cohorts will drive the end of natural growth, as deaths 1,000 ki’s leavers, but Manawatu-Wanganui has twice beaten across most of the 1990s and to a lesser University of Waikato will increase and will not be replaced by births. Private Bag 3105 Auckland as the largest recipient. 500 extent across the 2000s, with that loss Hamilton 3240, The Taranaki Region experiences an on The Taranaki Region has a slightly greater proportion Ma ori completely offsetting natural increase - New Zealand going problem in terms of net migra- than the national average, and a smaller proportion of those across the period 1996-2001 and -500 tion loss at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age; of Pacific Island, Asian, or Middle Eastern/Latin Ameri- explaining the overall decline. Although the Number Phone: however that loss has reduced over the -1,000 can/African origin. The relative youth of the region’s Ma ori region’s natural increase experienced a 07 838 4040
past three Census periods. -1,500 population has the potential to bestow an economic ad- small rise over the mid–to late-2000s (as E-mail: March Years June Years vantage as population ageing proceeds, as the older Europe- elsewhere in New Zealand), this -2,000 [email protected] an population disproportionately enters retirement, and the component of growth is steadily reducing 1992
ISSN 2382-039X
1993-94 1996-97 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2006-07 2009-10 2011-12 1994-95 1995-96 1997-98 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 number of youthful labour force entrants declines. as the population ages and larger 1992-93 1999-2000 (Print) proportions reach the age at which they Taranaki REGION ISSN 2382-0403 References: have completed childbearing. Source: Compiled from Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare (Online) Jackson, N. O., and Pawar, S. (2013). A Demographic Accounting Model for New Zealand. Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi: Regional Impacts of Demographic and Economic Change – 2013-2014. MBIE-funded project. , Hamilton, New Zealand: National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato. NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 6 P a g e 2 P a g e 3 NIDEA DemographicTaranaki Snapshot Region –No. k e 6 y Taranaki Region, June 2014 Taranakidemographic Region, June trends 2014
Components of Change by Component Flow Taranaki’s Movers and Stayers
Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’ migration, which we call the ‘residual’ component (+852 Data from the 2013 Census indicate that 71 per cent of Leavers: The data for those who had been living in the (Jackson & Pawar 2013), the broad components of the people enumerated as having moved to the region those enumerated as living in the Taranaki Region on Taranaki Region in 2008 but were living elsewhere at the Taranaki Region’s population change can be broken down between 2008 and 2013, but their 2008 origin is Census night 2013 (March 5th) had been living there in 2013 Census show marked similarity to the main regions to give an approximation of their underlying flows. Figure unknown). The model further disaggregates each known 2008, similar to the proportion at the 2006 Census but of origin, the single-largest proportions of leavers having 3 shows that between 2008 and 2013, the Taranaki net migration component into its respective inflows and lower than in 1996 and 2001 (76 per cent). At the 2013 gone to Auckland, Wellington, Manawatu-Wanganui, Region grew by approximately 3,000 persons (+2.8 per outflows (8,517 internal immigrants and 8,754 internal Census, those who had not been born in 2008 accounted followed by Waikato. cent). Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted emigrants; 6,067 PLT international immigrants and 6,859 for the single largest component of arrivals (accounting for 3,177 persons, slightly reduced by an estimated net PLT international emigrants). As for most regions, the for 7.2 per cent of the 2013 population), followed by those Perhaps the most interesting observation from these data migration loss of 177 persons. The natural increase overall picture is one of considerable ‘churn’, generated by who had been living elsewhere in New Zealand but not is that the patterns have been remarkably consistent over component was in turn comprised of 7,835 births partially large numbers of leavers and arrivals relative to the net further defined (5.0 per cent). The next largest the past four Censuses, the regions of origin and offset by 4,658 deaths. From estimated net migration (- outcome. Data for the 1996-2001 and 2001-2006 periods contingents were those who had been overseas in 2008 destination of Taranaki’s internal migrants remaining 177) we then account for ‘known’ net migration (-1,029), are available on request from NIDEA. and those who did not state where they had been living almost identical over time, although in both 1996 and comprised of net internal migration (-237) and net (4.6 per cent each). Internally, the next largest 2006 Manawatu-Wanganui out-performed Auckland as international permanent/long term (PLT) migration (- contributions came from Auckland, Manawatu-Wanganui, the main region of destination. 792). This leaves an unaccounted for component of the Waikato and Wellington. Between 2008 and 2013, the Figure 3: Components Flows—Taranaki Region 2008-2013 Taranaki Region grew by 3,000 Figure 5: Taranki’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013 NET CHANGE in Estimated Population Start 107,500 110,500 End persons, all of which was ac- (ERP2008 - ERP2013) +3,000 +2.8% counted for by natural increase.
NATURAL INCREASE ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION The past four censuses in- (Births - Deaths) + dicate that between 71 and +3,177 +105.9% -177 -5.9% 76 per cent of people enu-
NET KNOWN MIGRATION Residual Component of Migration merated as living in the Births Deaths (Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration) Estimated Net Migration - Net Known Migration) 7,835 +261.2% 4,658 -155.3% -1,029 -34.3% +852 +28.4% Taranaki Region at each Census had been living in Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration the Region five years previ- -237 -7.9% -792 -26.4% ously .
Internal In-migrants Internal Out-migrants PLT Arrivals PLT Departures
+8,517 +283.9% - -8,754 -291.8% +6,067 +202.2% -6,859 -228.6%
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources Migration by Age Population Ageing
Figure 4 shows that the Taranaki Region’s Figure 4: Net migration by age — Taranaki Region 1996-2001, 2001-2006 and As elsewhere, declining birth rates, increasing longevity, and—in Taranaki’s case—net migration loss at 15-24 overall net migration loss between 2008 and 2008-2013 years, are causing the population to age structurally. Currently, the Taranaki Region has the sixth oldest age 2013 was largely accounted for by those at 15- structure of New Zealand’s 16 regions, but it is not ageing as fast as some; in 2006 it had the second oldest age 19 and 20-24 years of age; however loss at 1,000 structure. The New Plymouth and Stratford Districts are slightly older (17 per cent aged 65+ years), and South Taranaki slightly younger (15.3 per cent aged 65+ years). At regional level, all age groups below 65 years are these ages has reduced quite systematically 500 over the last three Census periods. Across the projected to decline in size across the period 2011-2031, and those at 65+ years to increase (Figure 6). By 2031, 2001-2006 and 2008-2013 periods, small net 0 26.2 per cent of the population of the Taranaki Region is projected to be aged 65+ years, up from 16.1 per cent in 2011. The Taranaki Region and Stratford District can expect to have more elderly than children by 2021, around gains occurred at 0-9 years, and larger gains at -500 25-39 years, indicating the net arrival of young five years earlier than for total New Zealand, while this will occur for New Plymouth a little earlier, around 2016, -1,000 and not until 2026 for South Taranaki.
adults/parents and children (note that these 1996-2001 Number data have allowed for change in cohort size). -1,500 Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age group Between 2008 and 2013 there was also a small 2001-2006 -2,000 2008-2013 increase in net migration gain at 60-89 years, 0-14 years indicating the increasing arrival of retirees. The -2,500 120.0 15-24 years 100.0 underlying data show that most age groups saw -3,000
2031 80.0 25-39 years
both internal and international arrivals and -
0-4
90+ 5-9
60.0
10-14 85-89
35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 75-79 80-84 20-24 25-29 30-34 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 departures, with around half of the 2008-2013 15-19 40-54 years net gain at 30-34 and 60-69 years being of Age Group 40.0 55-64 years international migrants. 20.0 Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources 0.0 65-74 years
-20.0 Percentage Change, 2011 2011 Change, Percentage -40.0 75-84 years Taranaki Region New Zealand 85+ years
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
ource: Jackson,