From 905 to 416: the Gta Majority

FROM 905 TO 416: THE GTA MAJORITY

L. Ian MacDonald

In the final days of the 2011 campaign, with the spectacular rise of the NDP in Quebec, bad memories of a disastrous NDP government would help Stephen Harper close the deal for a national majority in Ontario, and specifically in the Greater Toronto Area. It was the GTA that produced the majority. Where the Conservatives held 11 seats in the suburban 905 belt at dissolution, they would win 21 out of 22 on election day. And where they had no seats in 416, and hadn’t won a seat in the city since 1988, they won 9 out of 23 seats in Toronto itself. Astonishingly, the Conservatives are now the GTA party. Our Editor spent part of the campaign on the ground in 905 and 416.

En fin de campagne, l’ascension phénoménale du NPD au Québec a fait resurgir en Ontario le spectre du désastreux mandat au pouvoir des néodémocrates de Bob Rae, ce qui a permis à Stephen Harper de conquérir une majorité de sièges grâce à l’appui de cette province, et notamment de la région du Grand Toronto. Car c’est bel et bien à cette région que les conservateurs doivent leur exploit. Ils ont ainsi raflé 21 des 22 circonscriptions de la couronne de banlieue du 905, contre les 11 qu’ils détenaient à la dissolution de la chambre des communes. Et dans les circonscriptions du 416 de la ville même, où ils n’avaient obtenu aucun siège depuis 1988, leurs candidats ont été élus dans 9 des 23 circonscriptions. Contre toute attente, voici donc les conservateurs devenus le parti de la région du Grand Toronto. Le rédacteur en chef d’Options politiques a passé quelques jours de la campagne sur le terrain du 905 et du 416.

t 6.00 a.m. on the second Monday of the spring “How does it feel here?” Flaherty was asked. campaign, Jim Flaherty was at the Pickering GO sta- “Good, very good, maybe too good,” he said. “It feels A tion, meeting commuters on their way to work in like 1995 at Queen’s Park.” The year of Mike Harris and the Toronto. From 905 to 416, the two area codes making up the Conservative sweep that ousted the NDP government of Greater Toronto Area which would on May 2 deliver the Bob Rae, the only man ever to have days named after him long-sought Conservative majority. for the wrong reasons. At the finance minister’s side was Chris Alexander, the In the final days of the 2011 campaign, with the spec- former Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan, and star tacular rise of the NDP in Quebec, bad memories of a disas- Conservative candidate against Liberal incumbent Mark trous NDP government would help Stephen Harper close Holland in the riding of Ajax-Pickering, whom he would go the deal for a national majority in Ontario. on to defeat by six points. The Conservatives would elect 22 new MPs from At the two entrances of the station, Alexander’s volun- Ontario, 73 in all, up from 51 in the last House. But it was teers handed out his campaign pamphlet to voters and the GTA that produced the majority. Where the asked if they wanted to say hello to Flaherty and the candi- Conservatives held 11 seats in 905 at dissolution, they date. Herding cats. Sleepy cats. would win 21 out of 22 on election day. And where they “Come and meet our finance minister,” Alexander said had no seats in 416, and hadn’t won a seat in the city since over and over again. 1988, they won 9 out of 23 seats in Toronto itself. “Nice to meet you,” Flaherty said. “How are you doing In all, the Conservatives gained 19 seats in the GTA, taking today?” them across the majority threshold. Overall, the Conservatives “Keep up the good work,” several voters told him. won 166 seats, 11 more than required for a majority, up from “You’re doing a great job.” 143 in the last House. The Liberals, who had 32 GTA seats before Two GO bus drivers actually got off their buses to come the election, were left with only seven. Their leader, Michael over and shake Flaherty’s hand. You don’t see that every day. Ignatieff, lost his own 416 seat of Etobicoke Centre.

38 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2011 From 905 to 416: The GTA majority

And the Conservatives, astonish- smarts to be a closer. On May 1, as part direction...so let’s be clear, a vote for ingly, are now the GTA party. of a cross-Canada sprint on the final the NDP is a vote for an NDP govern- When the election was over, day of the campaign, he delivered a ment. And a vote for the Liberals is Flaherty convened a GTA caucus meet- strong stump speech in London, where now a vote for an NDP government. ing at the ministers’ regional office in the Conservatives would unexpectedly And let me speak very clearly to tradi- downtown Toronto. “We couldn’t fit win all three seats in the southwestern tional Liberal voters. I know that many everyone around the table in the Ontario city. of you do not want NDP economic policies, that you do not In the final days of the 2011 campaign, with the spectacular want NDP tax hikes, and rise of the NDP in Quebec, bad memories of a disastrous NDP that is why to make sure the government would help Stephen Harper close the deal for a next Parliament does not national majority in Ontario. raise taxes, Canada needs a stable, Conservative majori- boardroom, there were members who “The choice in this election is ty government.” had to stand,” he said later. “We used increasingly stark,” he said. “You can While some Ontario Liberals to meet in a phone booth.” have an NDP government or a switched to the NDP to prevent Harper Conservative government.” from getting a majority, many more or the Conservatives, the road to a He continued: “In this election, Blue Grits voted for the Conservatives F majority always ran through 905. Mr. Ignatieff has taken the Liberal Party to make sure he got one. In the final To their own surprise, it also ran away from its roots, and in an NDP five days of the campaign, the Liberals through 416, where their best case in the war room before the election was that they might win four or perhaps five seats. Nine seats in 416 was way beyond their expectations. The Conservatives’ sweep of 905 began in the banquet halls of its multicultural communities. The first messenger was Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, who had spent several years flying into ethnic dinners in Toronto. And the message was that Conservatives shared their entrepre- neurial spirit and family values, while the Liberals had, for far too long, taken their votes for granted. The second messenger was Flaherty, the popular finance minister who himself represented the 905 riding of Whitby-Oshawa and was minister responsible for the GTA. He campaigned tirelessly up and down the 401 and 407, with a few side trips into the city on the Don Valley Parkway. And the third messenger was Harper himself, pouring it on in the final days of the campaign, charging through Ontario, warning of the dan- gers of an opposition coalition, one now led by the NDP, with Ignatieff reduced to the role of passenger in the back seat. In the last five days of the campaign, when he pivoted from the Liberals to the NDP, Harper finally proved he had the stamina and the Courtesy CTV News

POLICY OPTIONS 39 JUNE-JULY 2011 L. Ian MacDonald

plummeted six points in Ontario in As Conservative Senate Leader Given the Liberals’ standing as the the Nanos daily tracking poll, while Marjory LeBreton later noted: “West of most successful brand in Canadian the Tories got a ballot box bounce on the Ottawa River, we won 48 percent politics in the 20th century, it was as if election day, as voters streamed to the of the vote.” McDonald’s had suddenly fallen to polls to block an NDP-led coalition. third place in fast-food in the 21st cen- Martha Hall-Findlay, a popular and or the Liberals, as they surveyed the tury. Except that it didn’t happen personable Liberal MP, defeated in her F wreckage of their campaign, the overnight. It happened over three 416 riding of Willowdale, later called it numbers were eloquent. It was easily decades of neglect of the most storied a “double whammy,” saying she got their worst showing in history, both in political franchise in Canadian history. “squeezed from both sides.” share of the popular vote and seats in Call it the reverse echo effect, which the House. Their worst previous share wo events in the fall of 1980 attested to the influence of the polls. of the pop-vote was 26 percent under T would have long-term disastrous Reading the polls and coverage of the Stephane Dion in 2008. Ignatieff won consequences for the Liberals. The first Orange Wave in Quebec, Ontarians less than 19 percent in 2011. was the National Energy Program, thought it was a very good thing for And their worst previous score in which left the Liberals out of the game Canada that Smilin’ Jack Layton and the terms of seats was 40 under John Turner in the West from that day to this. And NDP were taking down the Bloc. But in the Mulroney landslide of 1984, in the second was the failed First they wanted no part of an NDP-led coali- what was then a 282-seat House. Ministers’ Conference on the tion to defeat a Conservative minority Ignatieff’s Liberals won only 34 seats in a Constitution, which ultimately led to government. So, thanks to Layton’s his- 308-seat House, numerically and propor- patriation with the entrenched Charter toric gains in Quebec, the voters handed tionately a much worse score than even of Rights in 1981 and 1982, over the Harper his majority in Ontario. the Turner debacle. The Liberals find objections of Quebec, principal home You could feel it on the doorsteps themselves, for the first time in history, to one of Canada’s two official lan- in a new subdivision in Flaherty’s rid- the third-place party in the Commons. guage communities. Or as Trudeau ing on Easter Saturday. First-time To go along with their 11 seats in himself described Quebec at the time: homeowners, many of them too Ontario, the Liberals won only four in “Le foyer principale du Canada francais.” young to remember Rae Days, sponta- the West, seven in Quebec and 12 in The patriation of the neously told Flaherty that “you have the Atlantic, and none in the three Constitution was followed by the to get a majority to stop the NDP.” northern territories. And this from a death of the Meech Lake Accord in They’d heard about the accidental and party that in 2000, only a decade ago, 1990, a seminal moment in which the disastrous NDP government from their won more than 100 seats out of 106 in principal negative actors were parents, and the best thing about that from the Given the Liberals’ standing as the most successful brand in Conservative perspective Canadian politics in the 20th century, it was as if McDonald’s was that Rae himself was had suddenly fallen to third place in fast-food in the 21st still around — as a Liberal. century. Except that it didn’t happen overnight. It happened n election night, the over three decades of neglect of the most storied political O numbers turned up franchise in Canadian history. perfectly for the Conservatives in Ontario. They won 44 Ontario because of the splits on the Trudeau and Jean Chrétien. The percent of the Ontario vote, while the right between the Canadian Alliance demise of Meech gave birth to the Liberals and NDP were virtually tied at and the Progressive Conservatives. Bloc Québécois, which Lucien 25 percent. Harper couldn’t have script- This was the party that, just three Bouchard led to 54 seats and 49 per- ed better splits than that, resulting in 73 decades ago, won 74 out of 75 seats cent of the vote in the 1993 federal Conservatives, 22 New Democrats and and 68 percent of the votes in Quebec, election. This was followed by the only 11 Liberals across the province. in the exceptional circumstances of the blowback of the 1995 Quebec referen- Thus was born the Harper prelude to the first referendum, where dum, which in turn begat the federal Coalition, Ontario and the West, Quebecers wanted Pierre Trudeau as waving of the Canadian flag that which may only be solidified in future their federalist champion. resulted in the sponsorship scandal elections, as the Conservatives bring In 2011, the Liberals were reduced and the Gomery Commission. This forward electoral redistribution to to seven seats and only 14 percent of sustained the Bloc’s narrative of griev- expand the House from 308 to 338 the vote in Quebec, all of those seats in ance in the 2004 and 2006 elections. seats, all of the new ones in Ontario non-francophone ridings on the island The Conservatives’ self-inflicted and the West. of Montreal. wounds in 2008, over cultural cuts and

40 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2011 From 905 to 416: The GTA majority kiddie crime, enabled the Bloc to get Duceppe was playing the sepa- his French was imperfect, his accent through that campaign with 49 seats, ratist card at a separatist meeting, and was colloquial. Layton reminded even though its popular vote fell to 38 while it might have played well in the Quebecers, especially by showing up percent from 49 percent in 2004 and room, there was a much larger audi- in a Canadiens sweater during the 42 percent in 2006. ence that was appalled by the prospect playoffs, that Montreal was his team, The declining trend line of the BQ of another referendum that would as well as his home town, despite hav- should have been a signal that the divide Quebecers and perhaps break ing spent decades in Toronto. In a mat- Bloc brand of poutine stands was in up the country. To make matters ter of weeks, he became a favourite son trouble in 2011. A party born in griev- worse, Duceppe brought out Jacques in Quebec, the most powerful card in the deck of Canadian poli- It was the GTA that produced the majority. Where the tics in that province. Conservatives held 11 seats in 905 at dissolution, they would Quebecers caucused win 21 out of 22 on election day. And where they had no over their choice autour de seats in 416, and hadn’t won a seat in the city since 1988, la table de la famille on Easter weekend, a week they won 9 out of 23 seats in Toronto itself. before the vote. They ance had no narrative of grievance. Parizeau to campaign with him a week decided that Jack was indeed their Gilles Duceppe got away with it for a later. Duceppe might as well have cam- guy. And that they were going to vote while, but he proved in 2011 to be not paigned with the ghost of Leonid for him. In the last week, the trend to only tired and old, but totally tone Brezhnev in the streets of Moscow. the NDP in Quebec became as hard as deaf to the voices of his own people. Parizeau personified all the bad memo- the boards at the Bell Centre. ries of the 1995 referendum. nd in a single sound bite in a Quebecers might show up for rom 23 percent in the Nanos track- A speech to a Parti Québécois policy another referendum, but that didn’t F ing poll on the day of Duceppe’s convention in Montreal on April 17, mean they wanted one. disastrous speech, the NDP grew to 43 Duceppe created the surge that took percent in Quebec on election day. Jack Layton and the NDP all the way o what did they do? They went, Meanwhile, the Bloc plummeted from from the low 20s in the Nanos daily S spontaneously, to Jack Layton, le 39 percent on April 17 to 23 percent on tracking poll to the mid-40s on elec- bon Jack, a good guy. Layton had been May 2, a loss of more than a point a tion day, the point where the rising growing in the Nanos tracking poll, day. In previous elections, the Liberals tide lifts all the boats, electing 59 from the mid-teens at the outset of the and then the Conservatives in 2006 members of the NDP in Quebec, to campaign, through a four-point bump had benefited from polarization as the only seven for the Liberals, five for the after his appearance as a gars sympa on default choice of federalist voters as the Conservatives and four for the BQ. Tout le monde en parle, the Radio- Block the Bloc party. But none of the “We have only one task to accom- Canada talk show that draws up to 1.8 federalist parties played that card in plish,” Duceppe said at the PQ conven- million Quebecers on Sunday night, 2011. The voters decided to Block the tion. “Elect the maximum number of an audience bigger than Habs hockey, Bloc entirely on their own. sovereignists in Ottawa and then we even in the playoffs. As a result, the Bloc was reduced to go to the next phase — electing a PQ Quebecers saw and heard that a rump of only four seats, losing its government. A strong Bloc in Ottawa. Layton had won the English-language standing as a recognized party in the The PQ in power in Quebec. And then debate on April 12 with Michael House. Not only did the Bloc lose staff everything again becomes possible.” Ignatieff, delivering a haymaker on and research funding, it lost its place in Et tout redevient encore possible. This the Liberal leader’s poor attendance in question period. Where it used to have was a direct echo of the PQ slogan in the House. It played into the French- three or four questions a day, its small the 1995 referendum campaign, Oui, et language debate the following night, deputation, sitting as private members, tout devient possible. Duceppe would where Layton more than held his own will be fortunate to get one question lose his East End Montreal seat of with Duceppe. Replying to Duceppe’s every couple of weeks. And it will lose Laurier-Ste.-Marie by more than 5,000 argument that neither one of them the federal subsidy of $2 per vote on votes and more than 10 points to the could become prime minister, Layton which it has subsisted for years. Having NDP’s Helene Laverdiere, a retired offi- responded, with a smile, that this was received 1.7 million votes as recently as cial from the Foreign Affairs depart- rather arrogant on the part of the BQ 2004, it won only 889,000 in 2011, near- ment. Layton himself campaigned in leader. ly one million fewer votes in Quebec. the riding on Easter Saturday, pulling Though this was Layton’s fourth nearly 2,000 people to a rally without national campaign, he succeeded in re- here did the Liberal campaign bussing anyone in. inventing himself in Quebec. While W go so disastrously wrong,

POLICY OPTIONS 41 JUNE-JULY 2011 L. Ian MacDonald

sliding from a peak of 32 percent at the has the Conservatives 10 points the Governor General, that’s what hap- end of March in the Nanos daily poll ahead,” said former Prime Minister pens, that’s how the rules work. And if to a historic nadir of 18.9 percent on Brian Mulroney, who from the begin- the Governor General wants to call on election day? The answer is every- ning of the campaign to the end pri- other parties or myself, for example, to where and in every way. vately predicted a Tory majority, try to form a government, then we try For openers, the Liberals forced an though he warned that “anything can to form a government. That’s exactly election Canadians didn’t want, over happen in the debates, as I know from how the rules work, and what I’m trying an issue, contempt of Parliament, my own experience.” to say to Canadians, I understand the about which voters were generally rules, I respect the rules, and I will fol- indifferent. They had a message that hat happened is that Ignatieff low them to the letter and I’m not going couldn’t be sold, and a messenger, W took one on the chin from to form a coalition government and I’m Ignatieff, who couldn’t sell it. Layton over his poor attendance prepared to talk to Mr. Layton or Mr. “You know how many questions I record. “If you want to be prime min- Duceppe or even Mr. Harper and say, got at the door about contempt of ister, you’d better learn how to be a Look, we have an issue and this is how I Parliament?” asked Conservative cabi- Member of Parliament first,” Layton want to solve it. Here’s the plan that I net minister John Baird, who was re- said. “You know, most Canadians, if want to put before Parliament. You elected in Ottawa West-Nepean. “Four. they don’t show up for work, they know, this is the budget that we would Exactly four questions. I got six ques- don’t get a promotion. You missed 70 bring in and then we take it from there.” tions on the long form census, because percent of the votes.” Game over. If the Conservatives it’s Ottawa. And I got 30 complaints Instead of replying that he was out couldn’t win a majority after a gift about changes to a local bus route.” meeting voters, doing his real job as like that, which again played perfect- Opposition Leader, Ignatieff stuttered and ly into Harper’s narrative, then they he Liberal frame of contempt was stumbled a lame reply that no one could wouldn’t deserve one. There was an T also counterintuitive in the sense remember. Ignatieff, the most experi- enduring and annoying professorial that Harper had managed his way enced television performer and debater quality about Ignatieff. Here he was through two minority Houses in five on the stage, was never in it after that. As turning a dangerous hypothetical years, and that Flaherty had successful- a telling point — the Liberals had raised question into a lecture on constitu- ly steered five consecutive budgets $3 million in the campaign up to the tional convention, when his answer through minority Parliaments, includ- debates, but only $10,000 came in on the should have been “Ask the Governor ing one in the midst of the steepest syn- day after the English debate. General, I’m campaigning to lead a chronized global recession in 60 years. And then in his feature-length Liberal majority government.” Harper had a simple ballot ques- interview with CBC News anchor Peter When the Liberal slippage reached tion, majority or minority, words that Mansbridge the following week, the point where they were overtaken by had been banned from the Ignatieff allowed himself to be drawn the NDP in the polls due to the orange Conservative vocabulary in his previ- into a discussion on the conditions surge in Quebec, the bottom fell out of ous three elections. And Ignatieff was dogged from Ontarians thought it was a very good thing for Canada that the beginning by hypothet- Smilin’ Jack Layton and the NDP were taking down the Bloc. ical questions about But they wanted no part of an NDP-led coalition to defeat a whether he would bring down a Conservative gov- Conservative minority government. So, thanks to Layton’s ernment and form an oppo- historic gains in Quebec, the voters handed Harper his sition coalition. Roll the majority in Ontario. video of the Three Stooges Coalition from 2008. This played under which he would form a coali- their campaign in Ontario. And in the right into Harper’s narrative and tion, the very question his advisers closing stretch, the Liberals, who had framed his ballot question. had implored him to avoid. always been the party of strategic vot- There was also an element of insti- Mansbridge politely persisted, and ing, saw their voters in Ontario flock to tutional entitlement in Ignatieff pro- Ignatieff finally went there. “All right, the NDP and the Conservatives. posing another frame, that of “a red let’s run it out so we’re all clear,” door or a blue door,” when as it turned Ignatieff said. “If Mr. Harper wins the nd there were two elections, the out, there was also an orange door. most seats and forms a government, but A one in the bubble and the one on For the first half of the campaign, does not secure the confidence of the the ground. Trapped in the bubble, hardly anything moved. “Another day House, and I’m assuming that hunched over their BlackBerries send- when I wake up to see that Nik Nanos Parliament comes back, then it goes to ing tweets to each other, most members

42 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2011 From 905 to 416: The GTA majority

Policy Options photo Finance Minister Jim Flaherty campaigning with star Conservative candidate Chris Alexander at the GO train station in Pickering, Ontario, on the morning of April 11. The Conservatives would win 21 out of 22 seats in suburban 905, a gain of 10, and picked up 9 seats in the city of Toronto, where they previously had none. In all the Conservatives gained 19 seats in the GTA, which gave them their majority.

of the National Press Gallery missed the corps being so disrespectful to the pres- All five 905 ridings were held by the story on the ground. With rare excep- ident of the United States. But then, Liberals, three of them won by margins tions such as National Post columnist journalism is the only profession in of five points or less. All of them were in John Ivison, who actually broke out of which inappropriate behaviour is not play. Flaherty’s role was to fire up cam- the bubble and went out on his own to only tolerated, but encouraged. paign volunteers to get out the vote. talk to real live voters, most journalists On the ground it was very differ- “We are on the cusp of a majori- travelling with the leaders were content ent from the bubble. Voters were angry ty,” Flaherty told a crowd of 500 at to stay in the cocoon. There was the about the election, and even knew Parm Gill’s committee room in daily spat on Harper’s tour of how how much it cost — $300 million that, Brampton-Springdale. “It matters for many questions he would take every as Flaherty would tell people at his the brilliant future of Canada that we day, when no one in the real world many stops in 905, could be put to bet- have a majority.” Gill would beat Ruby cared. Then there was the spectacle of ter use for taxpayers. Dhalla by 20 points. the CBC’s Terry Milewski asking Harper On the second Sunday of the cam- At every stop, Flaherty openly if he was “a coward or a chicken” for paign, Flaherty set out down the 401 campaigned on the “M” word that was declining a one-on-one debate with from his home in Whitby to visit five not allowed to pass the lips of Ignatieff. It is impossible to imagine 905 ridings, with a side trip into 416 Conservative candidates in the last any member of the White House press for an evening fundraiser. three elections.

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And this led him to the prospect “As a member of Parliament from Flaherty visited six ridings that day, of an opposition coalition in the the GTA, I get lonely in Ottawa,” and the Conservatives would win every event the Conservatives were Flaherty said. “We need more members one of them. And in Liberal Fortress returned with a third consecutive from the GTA. It matters for the bril- Toronto, the Conservatives would win minority government. liant future of Canada that we have a the multicultural and Jewish vote, core “They’ve done it before and majority.” constituencies of the Liberal Party, not they’ll do it again,” Flaherty said, There was the “M” word again. by a little, but by a lot. recalling the Three Stooges Down in Mississauga South, Stella On the morning of the election, Coalition. “What they tried to do Ambler was running against long-time Flaherty looked at the last set of poll was take over the government. The Liberal incumbent Paul Szabo. He won numbers and liked what he saw — finance critic of the NDP sat in my last time by less than five points. the splits in Ontario that didn’t even office and said, ‘You may be finance Ambler would beat him by 10 points. capture the Conservatives’ ballot minister now but you won’t be in a “I’ve had Jim as a boss,” said box bounce. week. We’re taking over.’ Ambler, who used to run his Toronto “We’re there,” he said. “We’re “We’ve come out of the recession ministerial office. “But I’d love to have good. It’s a majority.” in better shape than any other coun- him as a colleague.” And finally, Stephen Joseph try in the world, with nearly half a “This is a riding we should win,” Harper is the Prime Minister of a million new jobs,” Flaherty contin- Flaherty said on the drive back into majority government. ued. “We have a wonderful reputation Toronto for a Rosedale fundraiser for in the world. Tim Geithner, the US Mark Adler. In York Centre, the L. Ian MacDonald, Editor of Policy treasury secretary, calls us ‘virtuous Jewish vote was on the move to Options, is the author of Mulroney: Canada.’ In the UK, they’ve had dra- Harper because of his staunch sup- The Making of the Prime Minister, conian cuts, with 400,000 civil ser- port for Israel. “The Jewish vote is 24 and From Bourassa to Bourassa: vants laid off.” percent of the riding,” said Adler, Wilderness to Restoration. He is also The partisan crowds liked the nar- grandson of a holocaust survivor. a national affairs columnist with the rative of Canada coming safely “And 70 percent of it is coming to Montreal Gazette and Sun Media, as through the economic storm. It had us.” On election day he would beat well as a frequent commentator on the added virtue of being true, and hockey legend Ken Dryden by 15 CTV, CPAC and CBC Radio. imacdon- told by the guy who was at the wheel. points. [email protected]

44 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2011