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London Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Modelling London Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Modelling Assessment Report Southend Borough Council/Essex County Council/Rochford District Council April 11 2013 Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Modelling Assessment Report Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for Southend Borough Council, Essex County Council & Rochford District Council’s information and use in relation to reporting the modelling outcomes from the JAAP assessment. Atkins assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. This document has 77 pages including the cover. Document history Job number: 5112258 Document ref: Modelling Assessment Report Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev 1.0 First draft for distribution SF/RP 06/02/13 Rev 2.0 Revision after comments VJ/SF Unchecked 22/02/13 Rev 3.0 Issue to Client SF AA AA AA 22/03/13 Issue to Client Comments Rev 4.0 SF AA AA AA 11/04/13 Amended Client signoff Client Southend Borough Council/Essex County Council/Rochford District Council/Rochford District Project London Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Document title London Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Job no. 5112258 Copy no. Document Modelling Assessment Report reference Atkins Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan | Version 4.0 | April 11 2013 | 5112258 Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Modelling Assessment Report Table of contents Chapter Pages 1. Introduction 6 1.1. Background 6 1.2. Modelling Assessment 7 1.3. Model Structure 8 1.4. Document Structure 9 2. Model Scenarios 10 2.1. Planning Proposals 10 2.2. Infrastructure/Transport Proposals 10 3. Forecast Model Inputs 15 3.1. Development Data (Local Planning Forecasts) 15 3.2. National Trip End Forecasts (TEMPRO) 17 3.3. Value of Time and Distance 19 3.4. Public Transport Fare 20 3.5. LGV and HGV Growth 21 4. Reference Case Demand 22 4.1. Matrix Segmentation 22 4.2. Matrix Build Procedure 23 4.3. Trip Distribution for Development Sites 27 5. Forecast Model Outputs 29 5.1. Model Convergence 29 5.2. Demand Response 30 5.3. Highway Conditions 34 5.4. Public Transport Trips 41 5.5. Screenline Flows 43 5.6. Bus Route Analysis 47 6. Outline Economic Case 56 7. Summary 57 7.1. Summary of Key Findings 57 7.2. JAAP Policies 58 7.3. Suitability for Further Assessments 58 Appendix A. Reference Case Matrices 60 A.1. PA Level 60 A.2. OD Level 60 Appendix B. Post VDM Matrices 61 B.1. PA Level 61 B.2. OD Level 61 Appendix C. Public Transport Data 62 C.1. Heat Map Analysis 62 Appendix D. JAAP Transport Assessment 75 Atkins Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan | Version 4.0 | April 11 2013 | 5112258 Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Modelling Assessment Report Tables Table 1. Proposed Development Sites 10 Table 2. Scenario Summary 11 Table 3. Adopted Development Trip Rates (TRICS) 12 hours (0700-1900) 15 Table 4. Applied Trip Rates by Development (12 hours 0700-1900) 16 Table 5. TEMPRO Sectors 18 Table 6. TEMPRO Planning Forecasts (v6.2) 18 Table 7. TEMPRO Trip End Forecasts (v6.2) 24 Hour Period 19 Table 8. Person Values of Time (pence per minute, 2002 prices) 19 Table 9. Values of Time/Distance (pence per minute/per kilometre 2002 prices) 19 Table 10. Historical Growth in Bus Fares (real terms) 20 Table 11. Historical Growth in Rail Fares (real terms) 20 Table 12. LGV & HGV Growth Factors from 2009 (NTM Growth Factors v5 –RTF11) 21 Table 13. Purpose Proportions by Mode (Base year observed) 22 Table 14. TEMPRO Background Growth 24 Hour PA Level (all modes) 23 Table 15. Development Trip ends PA Level (all modes) 24 Table 16. TEMPRO 24hr Reduced Background Growth (Development Trips removed) 24 Table 17. Forecast Trip End Growth from Base Year 25 Table 18. Reference Case (RC) Demand Whole Model 26 Table 19. Demand Model Convergence 29 Table 20. Highway Model Convergence 30 Table 21. Trips by Mode (Whole Model Area) 30 Table 22. Trips by Mode Proportions (Whole Model) 31 Table 23. Trips by Mode (JAAP Area) 32 Table 24. Trips by Mode Proportions (JAAP Area) 33 Table 25. Trips Saxon Business Park by Mode/Proportion 33 Table 26. Rail Trips Accessing Saxon Business Park 34 Table 27. Highway Journey Times A127 Borough Boundary to Cuckoo Corner 34 Table 28. Highway Journey Times HQPT Corridor 34 Table 29. HQPT Boarding and Alighting AM Peak hour 2021 DS 47 Table 30. HQPT Boarding and Alighting PM Peak hour 2021 DS 47 Table 31. Southend Airport Multimodal Interchange (Do something) 2021 55 Table 32. AM Peak Line Load Summary 55 Table 33. PM Peak Line Load Summary 56 Table 34. Appraisal Summary Table (2002 prices) 56 Atkins Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan | Version 4.0 | April 11 2013 | 5112258 Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Modelling Assessment Report Figures Figure 1. Study Area 7 Figure 2. Southend Forecast Model Structure 8 Figure 3. Report Structure 9 Figure 4. Proposed Development Sites 12 Figure 5. Proposed Infrastructure 13 Figure 6. Junction Improvements - Existing vs Proposed 14 Figure 7. Southend and surrounding TEMPRO Sectors 17 Figure 8. Distribution of Car and Bus trips to and from Saxon Business Park 2021 (12 hour OD level) 28 Figure 9. Route Map: Highway Journey Time Routes 36 Figure 10. Highway Flow Difference (Do Something – Do Minimum) AM Peak 2021 37 Figure 11. Highway Flow Difference (Do Something – Do Minimum) PM Peak 2021 38 Figure 12. Highway Junction Delays Comparison AM Peak 2021 39 Figure 13. Highway Junction Delays Comparison PM Peak 2021 40 Figure 14. Rochford and A127 Junctions (average delay seconds) AM Peak 2021 41 Figure 15. Public Transport Passengers Flow Difference (Do Something – Do Minimum) AM Peak 2021 42 Figure 16. Public Transport Passengers Flow Difference (Do Something – Do Minimum) PM Peak 2021 43 Figure 17. Screenline Flows- Highway Flows (in Vehicles) 2021 44 Figure 18. Screenline Flows- Bus Flows (in Persons) 2021 45 Figure 19. Screenline Flows- Rail Flows (in Persons) 2021 46 Figure 20. HQPT Boarding and Alighting AM Peak hour 2021 49 Figure 21. Proposed Bus Routes A, B, C & D 50 Figure 22. Route A Boarding and Alighting AM Peak hour 2021 51 Figure 23. Route B Boarding and Alighting AM Peak hour 2021 52 Figure 24. Route C Boarding and Alighting AM Peak hour 2021 53 Figure 25. Route D Boarding and Alighting AM Peak hour 2021 54 Atkins Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan | Version 4.0 | April 11 2013 | 5112258 1. Introduction 1.1. Background Atkins was commissioned by Southend-on-Sea Borough Council and Essex County Council to develop a comprehensive forecast of travel conditions in Southend and the southern area of Rochford district. The background to this work is proposals to develop land at and surrounding the London Southend Airport (LSA) into new employment provision through a series of business parks. LSA has planning permission to expand its passenger operations up to 2 million passengers per annum (MPPA). The airport began operating regular passenger services in April 2012 with a passenger throughput in 2012 of approximately 0.6 MPPA. It is recognised that this growth in passenger numbers represents a significant opportunity to increase the level of employment locally. Evidence from comparable locations such as Bournemouth, suggest that airports act as hubs for a number of industries which in turn leads to the creation of employment opportunities. In response to this Southend-on-Sea Borough Council (SBC) and Rochford District Council (RDC) have jointly developed the Southend Airport and Environs Joint Area Action Plan (JAAP). The JAAP sets out the proposals for the area and seeks to quantify the opportunities and challenges generated through the proposed employment provision linked to the growth of the airport. This document provides an assessment of the modelling with the objective of providing evidence for the travel conditions in a future year assuming all development is realised. For instance the assessment will determine if increased demand will result in unacceptable levels of highway congestion. The assessment is multi modal and therefore considers highway and public transport provision in a future year through the use of a model designed to consider traveller responses to changes in travel cost. This model is the Southend- on-Sea multi modal model (SoSMMM). SoSMMM is a comprehensive trip forecasting tool developed in line with industry best practice (Department for Transport – Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG)). The modelling reflects a 2021 forecast year which was identified as being in line with the predicted planning horizon for the majority of JAAP led developments and the airport reaching its capacity of 2 MPPA. In response to the growth outlined within the JAAP a number of proposed infrastructure improvements have already been identified. The JAAP submission document sets out a number of objectives for transport within the study area: • Ensuring good connectivity to the development area by all modes of transport, with appropriate improvements to sustainable transport and the highway network; and • Minimise traffic impacts and congestion. To achieve the above a number of improvements have been proposed. This includes increasing capacity at individual highway junctions, new bus corridors and a multi modal interchange at the airport to link the railway station, the airport terminal, hotel and employment related to these locations with the wider bus network. The proposals are considered within this assessment in conjunction with the long standing aspiration to reduce congestion and improve reliability along the A127 corridor at recognised bottlenecks.
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