The Perspectives of Economic Integration in the South

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T THE In partialIn fulfillment ofthe r HE A CCESSION TO THE CCESSION TO

P S OUTH OUTH ERSPECTIVES OF ERSPECTIVES C AUCASUS: THE THE AUCASUS: Supervisor: Professor Toka Gabor Department ofPolitical Science Central European University Budapest, Hungary Akop Gabrielyan equirements for the degree Masterof Arts of Submitted to E E URASIAN URASIAN (2014) CONOMIC CONOMIC By

I MPACT OF OF MPACT

USTOMS I

NTEGRATION IN IN NTEGRATION

A RMENIA’S RMENIA’S U NION

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...... Contents - - -

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...... The Eurasian Customs Union: realities and prospects The modern economic and political image of Souththe Caucasus The South Caucasus integration projects in the 20

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CEU eTD Collection 3 FIGURE O LEVEL THE 2 FIGURE OF DYNAMICS 1 FIGURE RA AVERAGE TABLE 10: CROSS TABLE 9: N TABLE 8:ARMENIA’S CROSS TABLE 7: CROSS TABLE 6: CROSS TABLE 5: AC TABLE 4:NATIONAL OF TABLE 3:INDEXES RATE GROWTH TABLE 2: TABLE 1 L ist of MILLION DOLLARS. 200 DOLLARS. MILLION 2001 ARME IN (PERCENTAGE) 1977 SURVEY 1990 FOR THE SEPT AS OF 2001 ...... : USSR PER CAPITA IN CAPITA USSR PER : ATTITUDE TO THE ECU ECU THE TO ATTITUDE - - Tables

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CEU eTD Collection 3 (Was Session. 66th 2d Congress, Harbord. G. James Gen. ByMaj. 266, No. SenateDocument Europe 2 itself. ofthe issue understanding corresponding will ease definition this through integration Understanding 1 Organization, Treaty organizations, with processes powers regional and international foreign Additionally, have who Azerbaijan, and Armenia between Georgia forcibly the economic, direct a took political sideormilitary over control theregion, establis third a when only strifes their mitigated largely countries prosperity enjoy to order in tensions i the however failed. the of one presented peculiarly. very Caucasus interaction of sphere other any or political economic, common Introduction

De Waal, Waal, De Project ofIntegration Failure Persistent The Region: “ABroken ThomasWaal, De of notion given finds Author the ot Cauc South nability - Asia Studies Asia The causes of those failures those of causes The Today co close of way a as Integration . ,

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thought that have been dominant in political theory since the second half half second the since theory political in dominant been have that thought

- s for interpretation and action". and interpretation for s 957. Additionally, see Anthony Giddens, Giddens, Anthony see Additionally, 957. - 369 369

of the given work: it will be shown through the the through shown be will it work: given the of 6

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reader with the previous attempts of integration in the South Caucasus starting from the first Caucasus theSouth the attempts ofintegration startingfrom in reader withthe previous As it was already hinted, it was particu it hinted, was As already it Process” Universal the and European The Integration: “International Ernst Haas, Thus, the first chapter after introduction will conduct a historical survey, familiarizing survey, historical a conduct will introduction after chapter first the Thus, regional of understanding clear a have to order in namely, task, second the Regarding

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followed by a struggle b struggle a by followed

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21. no.3 21.

Armenian Center for Nat for Center Armenian oeg support foreign sion countries received timely Western assistance. … The The … assistance. Western timely received countries sion Stephania Stephania

(2013): Villa, Villa,

381 vr Nagorno over Century” And the Political Background to the Revival the Revival to Background Political the Century”And

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CEU eTD Collection as acting of capable being afterwards Azerbaijan), of exception democraci liberal Western the from support financial external large without time of period short quite a in economies their reorganize to able themselves found countries the as view, of point quantitative) (read statistical purely the from remarkable quite are Baku and Tbilisi, Yerevan, of achievements economic current the Nonetheless, issues. economic solve to trying simultaneously countries, neighboring with problems military and al for experience heritagewhich Caucasian thethree ofindependentfor South states used have economic current respect, that In also but conciliation, a to brought approach that Nonetheless, Center single a of fist strong the by regulated being i.e. top, the from were pacified parties the that fact the to attributed largely be can cooperation in success although it like initiative single a within cooperation from prosperity considering differencesand political pathsofcurrent ineconomic development. well, so not works fact in whole" a "as of perception similarities, traditional and cultural some sharing from apart that suggests Caucasus South the consider Conclusion Initial independent development after the Communist collapse was a painful painful a was collapse Communist the after development independent Initial H beginning the At ing istorically countries were able to mitigate their tensions in order to enjoy economic enjoy to order in tensions their mitigate to able were countries istorically

the region as a whole. The important inference in that matter a matter that inferencein important Thewhole. a as regionthe

the l of the states, but also and especially for those who had some geopolitical some had who those for especially and also but states, the of l chara macroeconomic feature macroeconomic

is perceived externally as a whole, a quick glance from inside the region the inside from glance quick a whole, a as externally perceived is possibilityfor trsis r te eut o te oit oiy f industrialization, of policy Soviet the of results the are cteristics the author appealed to T. De Waal, who Waal, De T. to appealed author the economic s that the states had in the in had states the that s certain degree not only political and ethnic ethnic and political only not degree certain 71 growth under the programs of industrialization. of programsthe under growth

rein Goga, n Azerbaijani and Georgian, Armenian, o ccurred in in ccurred

es (perhaps with (perhaps es questioned lot mature almost 19 the the 90 ssumes that even if even that ssumes s and some of the of some and s case with case their

possibility

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Moscow.

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CEU eTD Collection that is issue whole the but view, of point economic pure the from advantages of states, from apart those f diversified country, compensationalthough notwithout guarantee the entering correspondingly Russia, ally geostrategic Armenia whereas themselves found Azerbaijan and Georgia eventually of each between relationship of conditions powers. great those by proposed initiatives integration different regarding positions their explicitly more clarify Armenia, prompted conjuncture international time, same the influence, real/potential of realm their of part a as region the see to them allows conjuncture international current states, accept communist the to join but to and alternative bolshevetization other no had Azerbaijan Georgia, Armenia, when century last fully became states that much,having reserves which vast ofnaturaleconomy. resources supported their building decease Dutch the by accompanied was crisis the because also most, the suffered Armenia like countries Some investments. of paradigm the changed drastically consist states the in flowed which capital foreign attracted economies. The Eurasian Customs Union can be generally atoward can springboard as viewed be Union The Customs Eurasian three Caucasian South the politically maturation, economic with Simultaneously

exercis se s

ctor, whereas some states lik states some whereas ctor,

maintenance of that relationship that of maintenance orm of integration that can also bring political changes to the prospect member member prospect the to changes political bring also can that integration of orm cnmc auain f the of maturation Economic e

comp consistently - fledged actors of actors fledged

n ih o te ofit vr NKR, over conflict the of light In lementarism named named preserves its utmost strong economic and political ties with its with ties political and economic strong utmost its preserves macroeconomic modifications. Clearly, the ECU has a numberECU has a Clearly, the macroeconomic modifications. ,

trying to play on the interest the on play to trying

international process international e Azerbaijan e three

the . and gives a number of economic benefits for the the for benefits economic of number a gives and

72 regional states with each with states regional

ot Caucasian South de jure de . Compared to the beginning of the the of beginning the to Compared . retd oe oad h West, the toward more oriented ently until the last financial crisis financial last the until ently

were not influenced by the crisis the by influenced not were Eura of

each to a deferent degree. degree. deferent a to each Georgia, ifrn political different s sian Customs Customs sian

of those great powers who powers great those of

tts n h 2000 the in states

that smote the house the smote that of of and the Azerbaijan great powers, powers, great no that Union - economic a

coun a also s more more

try At At to - CEU eTD Collection whereas initiative, ECU the of beneficiary a become can also Georgia willingness, political perspective. gi can accession the that aftermath particular about the least respectively. ex attractive Union the creating behind idea the find extent different a to who and states Caucasian South three the in live who people ordinary of opinion the to address would assessm proper give to trying opinions, of number a are there evidenced, research the as Meanwhile Azerbaijan whereas affairs, foreign its in flexibility international for room more has Georgia Armenia, West. the with broadly, more and, Europe with ties military cultural, economic, EC the join to decision very CaucasianSouth realm. of proliferation seeking other each with those because also wh forcesinternational different of interest but the represent initiatives differ, initiatives general those of and demands custom and because requirements economic only not impossible is initiative example Association for Partnership and, ECU both within simultaneously integration economic of degree same The world. the of rest the of some from coming initiatives, similar wh pected, Armenians are the most positive about it, whereas people living in Azerbaijan are Azerbaijan in living people whereas it, about positive most the are Armenians pected, ich

oiin isl wt te no s bie t rcnie is cnmc is ih other with ties economic its reconsider to obliged is Union the with itself positions All in all, despite all, in All ra widesame The the albeit maneuvering, for room less leaves accession of decision the Armenia For ent

of Armenia's decision andof Armenia's of consequences ofthat choice. il ahr osdr lentv t te C otos f xenl cooperation. external of options ECU the to alternative consider rather will However in a short a in However

nge of estimations about the ECU in general is present once a reader a once present is general in ECU the about estimations of nge

those public views and views public those de nt en ht h cuty il u al t political, its all cut will country the that mean not does U - and mid and - term perspective term their 73 own influence across the globe, including the the including globe, the across influence own

assessment ve on a regional level in a long term term long a in level regional a on ve s , u , nder the conditions of necessaryof conditions the nder , it seems still too early to talk to early too still seems it , o in a broad a in o

te Eastern the , scale compete compete scale Compared to Compared .

As it was it As profound

CEU eTD Collection of the Eurasian be will Union,whichalso Economic hopefully researched. ongoing, is integration of process the because especially and including investigation, further of subject talks. coo not will Azerbaijan seemingly Howbeit, the author hopes that the issues regarding the impact of accession can be a be can accession of impact the regarding issues the that hopes author the Howbeit,

and because the ECU will open a door for the next level of integration in the form form the in integration of level next the for door a open will ECU the because and perate with the ECU as a whole, pr whole, a as ECU the with perate 74

eferring direct national national direct eferring

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