New Armed Groups in Colombia: the Emergence of the Bacrim in the 21St Century a Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment O
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New Armed Groups in Colombia: The Emergence of the Bacrim in the 21st Century A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Tara Alexandra McGovern Master of Arts Georgetown University, 2005 Bachelor of Arts Wellesley College, 2004 Director: Louise I. Shelley, Professor Schar School of Policy and Government Fall Semester 2016 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2016 Tara A. McGovern All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION To my beloved son, Aiden; I look forward to exploring the world with you. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my family, friends, co-workers, and professors for their kindness and support as I worked for many hours over the years. In particular, thanks to my Chair, Dr. Louise Shelley, for her tremendous insight and knowledge, and my colleague, Dr. Richard White, for reading multiple drafts and offering his criticism and suggestions. Thank you also to committee members, Dr. Mark Rozell and Dr. Joseph Maxwell for waiting so patiently. I would also like to thank my parents for their love and dedication. Finally, I would like to thank my husband, Eric, for his outstanding programming skills and database support, as well as his unwavering encouragement. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations ......................................................................................................... xi Abstract ............................................................................................................................ xiv 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 A. A Problem of Terminology .................................................................................. 1 B. The Importance of This Research ........................................................................ 6 2. Literature Review...................................................................................................... 20 A. Transnational Organized Crime ......................................................................... 20 B. The State and Civil Society in the Latin American Context .............................. 35 3. Perspective on Recent Colombian History ............................................................... 43 A. La Violencia ....................................................................................................... 45 B. The Guerrilla War .............................................................................................. 50 C. The Era of the Cartels ........................................................................................ 59 D. The Rise of the Paramilitaries ............................................................................ 64 E. Summary of the Key Participants ...................................................................... 76 F. Conclusion ......................................................................................................... 81 4. Research Design and Methods .................................................................................. 83 A. Research Questions ............................................................................................ 83 B. Competing Hypotheses ...................................................................................... 84 C. Methods.............................................................................................................. 84 D. Definitions & Framework .................................................................................. 92 5. Case Study of the Bacrim ....................................................................................... 102 A. Counting and Identifying Early Bacrim Groups (2006-2010) ......................... 102 B. General Characteristics Attributed to the Bacrim ............................................ 109 C. Five Bacrim in Focus ....................................................................................... 139 D. Qualitative Conclusions ................................................................................... 195 6. Quantitative Analysis .............................................................................................. 197 A. Analysis of Criminal Activity (1963-2013) ..................................................... 198 B. Public Opinion in Colombia ............................................................................ 223 C. Panel Data Analysis ......................................................................................... 233 D. Quantitative Conclusions ................................................................................. 251 7. Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 254 A. Synthesis of Qualitative and Quantitative Findings......................................... 254 v B. Policy Implications .......................................................................................... 257 C. Closing Thoughts ............................................................................................. 261 Appendix A: Timeline .................................................................................................... 264 Appendix B: Additional Data Source Information ......................................................... 270 Appendix C: Full Quantitative Results ........................................................................... 272 A. Panel 1 Results ................................................................................................. 272 B. Panel 2 Results ................................................................................................. 275 Appendix D: FOIA Letter ............................................................................................... 281 Appendix E: Interview Questions ................................................................................... 282 References ....................................................................................................................... 284 A. General References .......................................................................................... 284 B. Statistics References ........................................................................................ 334 C. Data Sets/Sources............................................................................................. 337 D. Declassified Documents ................................................................................... 339 E. OFAC, U.S. Department of the Treasury – Kingpin Designations ................. 340 F. Tweets .............................................................................................................. 340 G. Interviews ......................................................................................................... 340 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Comparison of Definitions of Organized Crime ................................................. 21 Table 2. Transnational Organized Crime and the State .................................................... 25 Table 3. Bandoleros and Pájaros ....................................................................................... 50 Table 4. The Growth of the FARC throughout Colombia ................................................ 54 Table 5. Activities of the Paramilitaries ........................................................................... 70 Table 6. Demobilizations during Uribe’s First Term (2002-2006) ................................... 74 Table 7. Census 2005 – Percent of Select Ethnic Groups by Department (>40%) .......... 79 Table 8. Major Characteristics and Associated Attributes of Illegal Organizations ....... 100 Table 9. Key Distinctions between Paramilitary and Criminal Organizations ............... 101 Table 10. Significant Features that Differentiate between Drug Trafficking Organizations, Gangs & New Organized Crime ............................................................. 101 Table 11. Thirty-Four Groups Identified by CNRR ....................................................... 104 Table 12. Seventy-Nine Groups Identified by INDEPAZ (Antioquia-La Guajira) ........ 106 Table 13. Table 12 Continued (Magdalena-Vichada) ..................................................... 107 Table 14. Non-Drug Crimes Typically Associated with the Bacrim .............................. 121 Table 15. Groups Associated with or Subsumed by Los Urabeños (2014) .................... 186 Table 16. Comparison of Bacrim Characteristics ........................................................... 196 Table 17. Comparative Homicide Rates per 100,000 Persons (2012) ............................ 201 Table 18. Homicide Rates (per 100,000) (2001-2013) ................................................... 205 Table 19. The Most Important Problem in the Country (2005-2013) ............................. 224 Table 20. The Most Important Problem in the Country (Focus on Major Cities/Departments) ........................................................................................................ 225 Table 21. Model I-IV Description of Variables .............................................................