Why Get Hung up on Democracy? a Modest, “Swiftian” Proposal
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The Latent Characteristics That Structure Autocratic Rule
The Latent Characteristics That Structure Autocratic Rule Joseph Wright∗ November 4, 2019 Abstract Research on autocratic regimes in comparative politics and international relations often uses categorical typologies of autocratic regimes to distinguish among different forms of autocracy. This paper introduces historical data on dozens of features of dictatorships to estimate latent dimensions of autocratic rule. We identify three time-varying dimensions of autocracy that correspond to ideal types proposed in the literature: party dominance, military rule, and perso- nalism. We show that dimensions of autocratic rule are orthogonal to commonly-used measures of democracy-autocracy, and compare these dimensions to existing typologies of autocracies, showing that time-varying information on personalism is unique. We discuss a measurement model of personalism and illustrate the time-varying features of this measure in applied research on conflict initiation and regime collapse. 8864 words including text, references, footnotes, and figure titles and descriptions (not including the Abstract, Author Note, or Online Appendix). ∗Pennsylvania State University. [email protected]. This research is funded by the Minerva Rese- arch Initiative (ONR #N000141211004). The author thanks Jos Bartman, Jos´e Cheibub, Michael Coppedge, Rob Franzese, Fabrice Lehoucq, Michael Miller, Bumba Mukerjee, Phil Schrodt, Daniel Stegmueller, Milan Svo- lik, and participants at the University of Illinois Comparative Politics Workshop (2/2014), an APSA panel (9/2014), the \Political Institutions and the Behavior of States in the International System" (4/2015) conference at Yale, and the Lansing B. Lee, Jr. Seminar in Global Politics at the University of Virginia (9/2015) for helpful feed- back. The data introduced in this paper was collected by Barbara Geddes and her team at UCLA; this pro- ject and resulting research was supported by the National Science Foundation (BCS-0904478 and BCS-0904463). -
Directors Fortnight Cannes 2000 Winner Best Feature
DIRECTORS WINNER FORTNIGHT BEST FEATURE CANNES PAN-AFRICAN FILM 2000 FESTIVAL L.A. A FILM BY RAOUL PECK A ZEITGEIST FILMS RELEASE JACQUES BIDOU presents A FILM BY RAOUL PECK Patrice Lumumba Eriq Ebouaney Joseph Mobutu Alex Descas Maurice Mpolo Théophile Moussa Sowié Joseph Kasa Vubu Maka Kotto Godefroid Munungo Dieudonné Kabongo Moïse Tshombe Pascal Nzonzi Walter J. Ganshof Van der Meersch André Debaar Joseph Okito Cheik Doukouré Thomas Kanza Oumar Diop Makena Pauline Lumumba Mariam Kaba General Emile Janssens Rudi Delhem Director Raoul Peck Screenplay Raoul Peck Pascal Bonitzer Music Jean-Claude Petit Executive Producer Jacques Bidou Production Manager Patrick Meunier Marianne Dumoulin Director of Photography Bernard Lutic 1st Assistant Director Jacques Cluzard Casting Sylvie Brocheré Artistic Director Denis Renault Art DIrector André Fonsny Costumes Charlotte David Editor Jacques Comets Sound Mixer Jean-Pierre Laforce Filmed in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Belgium A French/Belgian/Haitian/German co-production, 2000 In French with English subtitles 35mm • Color • Dolby Stereo SRD • 1:1.85 • 3144 meters Running time: 115 mins A ZEITGEIST FILMS RELEASE 247 CENTRE ST • 2ND FL • NEW YORK • NY 10013 www.zeitgeistfilm.com • [email protected] (212) 274-1989 • FAX (212) 274-1644 At the Berlin Conference of 1885, Europe divided up the African continent. The Congo became the personal property of King Leopold II of Belgium. On June 30, 1960, a young self-taught nationalist, Patrice Lumumba, became, at age 36, the first head of government of the new independent state. He would last two months in office. This is a true story. SYNOPSIS LUMUMBA is a gripping political thriller which tells the story of the legendary African leader Patrice Emery Lumumba. -
President for Life, and Then Some - Nytimes.Com Page 1 of 2
Letter from Africa - President for Life, and Then Some - NYTimes.com Page 1 of 2 • Reprints This copy is for your personal, noncommercial use only. You can order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers here or use the "Reprints" tool that appears next to any article. Visit www.nytreprints.com for samples and additional information. Order a reprint of this article now. May 11, 2010 President for Life, and Then Some By HOWARD W. FRENCH In the months before his death in 1993 at the age of 88 (or, as widely rumored, as old as 100) and after 33 years in power, the president of Ivory Coast, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, fondly repeated a formula he had once announced publicly to the nation. “A king of the Baoulé has no right to know the identity of his successor,” he is reported to have said. Mr. Houphouët-Boigny may have belonged to royal lineage, but critics said he seemed to be forgetting that the Baoulé were only one of Ivory Coast’s 50 or so ethnic groups, and that he was the president of a would-be modern country. Few were fooled about the old leader’s real intention to rule as president for life, come what may in his aftermath. And the aftermath in Ivory Coast has indeed been grim. West Africa’s most prosperous country has been ripped apart by a civil war whose roots trace directly back to the contested circumstances of his succession, and the old regime has been replaced by a predatory authoritarianism under new leaders determined to hang on at all costs. -
To Download Senator Rubio's Speech Transcript
Remarks as Delivered to the Ronald Reagan Institute on April 30, 2019 By Senator Marco Rubio Thank you very much. Thank you, Fred, for inviting me, for introducing me, that’s very kind. I want to thank John Heubusch, Roger Zakheim, Rachel Hoff, and your colleagues at the Institute for giving me this opportunity and for organizing this event to mark the 35th anniversary of that speech, which you just saw a snippet of a moment ago. I wanted to spend today with you doing 3 things. The first, I wanted to talk about the historic significance of that speech, not just to U.S.- China relations, but to the cause of freedom and liberty around the world. Then I wanted to turn to the complex and challenging relationship today between China in the 21st century and our country. And third, some of the difficult choices we face with regards to that relationship. Let’s talk first about the speech. Some of you here today probably don’t remember that speech very well in 1984. I would have been in 8th grade. Actually, April 1984, I would have been in 7th grade. I remember that year only because it was Dan Marino’s second year and the Dolphins were a football team. But we’re coming back. Many people who work for me weren’t even born in 1984. But it was a part, as you said, of that historic six-day visit, and it was directed at the Chinese people. And the speech was typical Reagan. It overflowed with hope and optimism. -
Political Leaders in Africa: Presidents, Patrons Or Profiteers?
Political Leaders in Africa: Presidents, Patrons or Profiteers? By Jo-Ansie van Wyk Occasional Paper Series: Volume 2, Number 1, 2007 The Occasional Paper Series is published by The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD). ACCORD is a non-governmental, non-aligned conflict resolution organisation based in Durban, South Africa. ACCORD is constituted as an education trust. Views expressed in this Occasional Paper are not necessarily those of ACCORD. While every attempt is made to ensure that the information published here is accurate, no responsibility is accepted for any loss or damage that may arise out of the reliance of any person upon any of the information this Occassional Paper contains. Copyright © ACCORD 2007 All rights reserved. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. ISSN 1608-3954 Unsolicited manuscripts may be submitted to: The Editor, Occasional Paper Series, c/o ACCORD, Private Bag X018, Umhlanga Rocks 4320, Durban, South Africa or email: [email protected] Manuscripts should be about 10 000 words in length. All references must be included. Abstract It is easy to experience a sense of déjà vu when analysing political lead- ership in Africa. The perception is that African leaders rule failed states that have acquired tags such as “corruptocracies”, “chaosocracies” or “terrorocracies”. Perspectives on political leadership in Africa vary from the “criminalisation” of the state to political leadership as “dispensing patrimony”, the “recycling” of elites and the use of state power and resources to consolidate political and economic power. -
Will Xi Jinping Succeed?
1 Will Xi Jinping Succeed? William H. Overholt I want to offer you a way of understanding China and a very different way of viewing its current leadership. China is the latecomer of a group of Asian miracle economies. It faces a turning point shared by all the Asian miracles, a crisis of success. These crises of success are caused by complexity. Economic success creates a highly differentiated society. The extraordinary complexity of a modern economy can’t be managed from the offices of the top leaders. Likewise, the social complexity requires different political management. The crisis of success A crisis of success is a moment in development of a successful business or a country where continued success requires organizational transformation. Think of an entrepreneur who invents a cool widget and the business takes off, managed as the entourage of that one successful inventor. Soon the point comes where a simple business becomes complicated. It needs to list 1 2 on the stock exchange. It needs professional accounting and professional human resources management. It needs a board of directors and a public rule book. It requires an organizational transformation, and its future success or failure depends on successful transformation. Call it an Elon Musk moment. Xi Jinping’s job is to manage China’s Elon Musk moment. These crises of success share certain characteristics. Like South Korea and Taiwan in the 1980s China finds itself overleveraged, threatened by debt, bubbles, inflation and bankruptcies. The big companies find themselves indebted and unprofitable. Politics also grows more complex, with rising demonstrations and powerful interest groups demanding control over policies. -
Loyalist Monitoring, and the Sorcery Masonic Lodge∗
Chapter 4 of Inside Autocracy Expanding the Governing Coalition: \Unite and Rule", Loyalist Monitoring, and the Sorcery Masonic Lodge∗ Brett L. Cartery November 4, 2012 Abstract Scholars have long believed autocrats \divide and rule" their elite; divided elites, the argu- ment goes, are unable to conspire against the autocrat. Yet historical evidence suggests some autocrats do precisely the opposite. This chapter's theoretical model argues an autocrat may create a compulsory elite social club if his inner circle is sufficiently large. Frequent interaction between the inner circle and less trustworthy elite enables the loyalists to learn about { and thus prevent { nascent conspiracies. By reducing the probability of coups d'´etat from less trustwor- thy elites, \unite and rule" monitoring enable the autocrat to expand his governing coalition. Sassou Nguesso's compulsory elite social club takes the form of a Freemasonry lodge, created just before he seized power in 1997. After providing statistical evidence that high level appoint- ment is the best predictor of lodge membership, the chapter employs a matching estimator to establish that lodge membership causes elites to engage in less anti-regime behavior. ∗This research was made possible by grants from the National Science Foundation, United States Institute of Peace, Social Science Research Council, Smith Richardson Foundation, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, and Institute for Quantitative Social Science. Thanks to Robert Bates, John Clark, Wonbin Kang, Steve Levitsky, James Robinson, and Yuri Zhukov for helpful comments and encouragement, as well as seminar participants at Harvard University and University of Wisconsin-Madison. My greatest debts are to several Congolese friends, who made this research possible and must remain anonymous. -
Everyday Life
Everyday Life The North Korean people live under a strict communist regime. They have no say in how their country is managed. The central government controls nearly every aspect of life in the country. Most jobs don’t have salaries. Food and clothing are mostly provided by the government. People who do have a job with a paycheck earn around $1,500 per year. The majority of North Korean people are very poor. They don’t have things like washing machines, fridges, or even bicycles. Practicing a religion is not allowed as the state sees it as a threat. Instead, children are raised to worship Kim Il Sung, “the President for life”. There are over 34,000 statues of Kim Il Sung in North Korea, and all wedding ceremonies must take place in front of one. Portraits of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il can be found pretty much everywhere. All citizens must hang these portraits, which are provided by the government. Once a month, the police come over and check whether the portraits are still hanging and properly taken care of. Electricity is very unreliable in the country; most homes only have electricity a few hours per day. When buildings on one side of the street are blacked out, the other side gets electricity. When this situation occurs, there is a mad rush of children who run to their friends’ apartments on the other side. Internet is only available to the elite in North Korea. Even cellphones are extremely rare. Only people who are trusted by the government can buy a cell phone, but they must pay a registration fee of $825. -
Xi Jinping: Personality and Policies Prasanna Aditya a Intern, Chennai Centre for China Studies June 12 2020
Image Courtesy: New York Times Issue Brief III Xi Jinping: Personality and Policies Prasanna Aditya A Intern, Chennai Centre For China Studies June 12 2020 Introduction Disappointed with the rise of „bourgeois elements‟ in society, Chairman Mao Zedong unleashed what he called the „Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution‟ in 1966 which went on to be seared in Chinese collective memory as a period of unspeakable horror. He exhorted the masses to root out the capitalist sympathisers and preserve the revolution. Mao was a towering figure in Chinese politics since the People‟s Republic of China was founded in 1949. Even before the PRC became a sovereign country, the clout that Mao commanded in its territory was enormous. He built his base across the Chinese countryside and was genuinely viewed by his supporters and the masses as a revolutionary figure. The civil war between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by Mao and the nationalist Kuomintang was long and exhausting. The Japanese occupation of China in 1937 gave the fighters a cause to shed their differences and unite in defence of a common cause. Once the Japanese were expelled from their land with the end of the Second World War, the Chinese continued their infighting. After a protracted period of struggle, the CCP came out on top and founded the People‟s Republic of China and banished the Kuomintang to an island 140 miles off the coast now known as Taiwan. Since the genesis of the state, its history was intertwined and indistinguishable from that of the Communist Party. Mao, with his undisputed leadership of the party, was its face and his authority over the affairs of the state was supreme and unquestionable. -
Kitona Operations: Rwanda's Gamble to Capture Kinshasa and The
Courtesy of Author Courtesy of Author of Courtesy Rwandan Patriotic Army soldiers during 1998 Congo war and insurgency Rwandan Patriotic Army soldiers guard refugees streaming toward collection point near Rwerere during Rwanda insurgency, 1998 The Kitona Operation RWANDA’S GAMBLE TO CAPTURE KINSHASA AND THE MIsrEADING OF An “ALLY” By JAMES STEJSKAL One who is not acquainted with the designs of his neighbors should not enter into alliances with them. —SUN TZU James Stejskal is a Consultant on International Political and Security Affairs and a Military Historian. He was present at the U.S. Embassy in Kigali, Rwanda, from 1997 to 2000, and witnessed the events of the Second Congo War. He is a retired Foreign Service Officer (Political Officer) and retired from the U.S. Army as a Special Forces Warrant Officer in 1996. He is currently working as a Consulting Historian for the Namib Battlefield Heritage Project. ndupress.ndu.edu issue 68, 1 st quarter 2013 / JFQ 99 RECALL | The Kitona Operation n early August 1998, a white Boeing remain hurdles that must be confronted by Uganda, DRC in 1998 remained a safe haven 727 commercial airliner touched down U.S. planners and decisionmakers when for rebels who represented a threat to their unannounced and without warning considering military operations in today’s respective nations. Angola had shared this at the Kitona military airbase in Africa. Rwanda’s foray into DRC in 1998 also concern in 1996, and its dominant security I illustrates the consequences of a failure to imperative remained an ongoing civil war the southwestern Bas Congo region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). -
New Nations in Africa
3 New Nations in Africa MAIN IDEA WHY IT MATTERS NOW TERMS & NAMES REVOLUTION After World War II, Today, many of those • Negritude • Ahmed Ben African leaders threw off independent countries are movement Bella colonial rule and created engaged in building political •Kwame •Mobutu independent countries. and economic stability. Nkrumah Sese Seko • Jomo Kenyatta SETTING THE STAGE Throughout the first half of the 20th century, Africa resembled little more than a European outpost. As you recall, the nations of Europe had marched in during the late 1800s and colonized much of the conti- nent. Like the diverse groups living in Asia, however, the many different peoples of Africa were unwilling to return to colonial domination after World War II. And so, in the decades following the great global conflict, they, too, won their inde- pendence from foreign rule and went to work building new nations. TAKING NOTES Achieving Independence Clarifying Use a chart to list an idea, an event, or a The African push for independence actually began in the decades before World War leader important to that II. French-speaking Africans and West Indians began to express their growing sense country’s history. of black consciousness and pride in traditional Africa. They formed the Negritude movement, a movement to celebrate African culture, heritage, and values. When World War II erupted, African soldiers fought alongside Europeans to Ghana “defend freedom.” This experience made them unwilling to accept colonial dom- Kenya ination when they returned home. The war had changed the thinking of Zaire Europeans too. Many began to question the cost, as well as the morality, of main- taining colonies abroad. -
Do Executive Term Limits Work
ON THE EVASION OF EXECUTIVE TERM LIMITS TOM GINSBURG ,* JAMES MELTON ** & ZACHARY ELKINS *** ABSTRACT Executive term limits are precommitments through which the polity restricts its ability to retain a popular executive down the road. But in recent years, many presidents around the world have chosen to remain in office even after their initial maximum term in office has expired. They have largely done so by amending the constitution, sometimes by replacing it entirely. The practice of revising higher law for the sake of a particular incumbent raises intriguing issues that touch ultimately on the normative justification for term limits in the first place. This Article reviews the normative debate over term limits and identifies the key claims of proponents and opponents. It introduces the idea of characterizing term limits as a type of default rule executives may overcome if sufficient political support is apparent. It then turns to historical evidence to assess the probability of attempts, both successful and unsuccessful, to evade term limits. It finds that, notwithstanding some high-profile cases, executives observe term limits with remarkable frequency in consolidated democracies. The final Part considers alternative institutional designs that may accomplish some of the goals of term limits, but * Professor of Law, University of Chicago. This Article is an outgrowth of the Wythe Lecture delivered at William & Mary Law School on April 8, 2010. We thank Jose Cheibub, Henry Dietz, Rosalind Dixon, Lee Ann Fennell, David Fontana, Jennifer Gandhi, Guadalupe Gonzalez, Donald Horowitz, Wendy Hunter, Aziz Huq, Brian Kalt, Brian Leiter, Raul Madrid, Anup Malani, Eric Posner, Adam Przeworski, Adam Samaha, Alexei Trochev, Adrian Vermeule, and Kurt Weyland for their comments and suggestions.