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Industrial Transformation 2050 Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry

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Industrial Transformation 2050 Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry Industrial Transformation 2050 Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry IN COLLABORATION WITH SUPPORTED BY Industrial Transformation 2050 Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry About Industrial Transformation 2050. This report is part of the Industrial Transformation 2050 project, an initiative convened by the European Climate Foundation in collaboration with the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, the Children's Investment Fund Foundation, Climate-KIC, the Energy Transitions Commission, RE:Source, and SITRA. It is published as part of the Net-Zero 2050 series, an initia- tive of the European Climate Foundation. Industrial Transformation 2050 seeks to work with industry and other stakeholders to set out pathways and policy options for net-zero heavy industry in Europe by 2050, achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement while strengthening industrial competitiveness and the EU’s overall economic development and performance. Publication details The objective of Net-Zero 2050 is to build a vision and evidence base Copyright © 2019 University of Cambridge Institute for Sustaina- for the transition to net zero emission societies in Europe and beyond, bility Leadership (CISL). Some rights reserved. The material featured by mid-century at the latest. Reports in the series seek to enhance un- in this publication is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribu- derstanding of the implications and opportunities of moving to climate tion-NonCommercialShareAlike License. The details of this license may neutrality across the power, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture and be viewed in full at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ forestry sectors; to shed light on near-term choices and actions needed to reach this goal; and to provide a basis for discussion and engage- Please refer to this report as: Material Economics (2019). Industrial Trans- ment with stakeholders and policymakers. formation 2050 - Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry. 2 preface There is intense debate about how to close the gap the myriad of new technologies and business models be- between current climate policy and the aim of the Paris ing discussed can fit together into consistent European Agreement to achieve close to net-zero emissions by industrial strategies to combine a prosperous industrial mid-century. Heavy industry holds a central place in the- base with Paris compatibility, and what big choices and se discussions. The materials and chemicals it produces ‘no regrets’ Europe faces when developing such industrial are essential inputs to major value chains: transportation, strategies. infrastructure, construction, consumer goods, agricul- ture, and more. Yet their production also releases large This report thus explores the technical and economic aspects of the transition but stops short of concrete po- amounts of CO2-emissions: more than 500 Mt per year, or 14% of the EU total. Their emissions have long been licy recommendations. In a separate report, An Industrial considered ‘hard to abate’ compared to those from se- Strategy for a Climate Neutral Europe, a group of policy ctors such as buildings or electricity. experts explore what European policy is best suited to achieve a balanced transition. Policymakers and companies thus have a major task ahead. There is an urgent need to clarify what it would This study has been carried out by Material Economics. take to reconcile a prosperous industrial base with net Wuppertal Institute and the Institute of European Studies at zero emissions, and how to get there in the 30 remaining the Vrije Universiteit Brussel assisted with the analysis. The years to 2050. The journey starts from a point of often work has been supported by the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), the Children's Investment challenging market conditions for EU companies, and the Fund Foundation (CIFF), Climate-KIC, the Energy Transitions EU and its companies rightly is asking how climate and Commission, the European Climate Foundation, RE:Source, wider industrial strategy can be joined together. There is and SITRA. The Steering Group has comprised Martin Porter no doubt that significant innovation and entrepreneurship and Eliot Whittington (CISL), Tom Lorber (CIFF), Sira Sacca- will be required, by companies, policymakers, cities, and ni (Climate-KIC), Adair Turner and Faustine de la Salle (Ener- a range of other actors. gy Transitions Commission), Simon Wolf (European Climate Foundation), Johan Felix (RE:Source), and Mika Sulkinoja This study seeks to support these discussions. It charac- (SITRA). Research guidance have been provided by Dr. terises how net zero emissions can be achieved by 2050 Jonathan Cullen, Prof. Dr. Stefan Lechtenböhmer, Prof. Lars from the largest sources of ‘hard to abate’ emissions: J Nilsson, Clemens Schneider, and Tomas Wyns. We are steel, plastics, ammonia, and cement. The approach very grateful for the contributions of these organisations and starts from a broad mapping of options to eliminate fossil individuals, as well as the more than 80 other industry ex- perts, researchers, policymakers, and business leaders who CO -emissions from production, including many emerging 2 have contributed their knowledge and insight to this project. innovations in production processes. Equally important, The project team has comprised Anders Åhlén, Anna Teiwik, it integrates these with the potential for a more circular Cornelia Jönsson, Johan Haeger, Johannes Bedoire-Fivel, economy: making better use of the materials already pro- Michail Pagounis, and Stina Klingvall. Partner organisations duced, and so reducing the need for new production. Gi- and their constituencies do not necessarily endorse all fin- ven the uncertainties, the study explores several different dings or conclusions in this report. All remaining errors and 2050 end points as well as the pathways there, in each omissions are the responsibility of the authors. case quantifying the cost to consumers and companies, and the requirements in terms of innovation, investment, inputs, and infrastructure. The ambition is to explore how Per Klevnäs Per-Anders Enkvist Partner Managing Partner 3 Industrial Transformation 2050 – Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry / Executive summary Industrial Transformation 2050 – Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry / Executive Summary TABLE OF CONTENTs EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 Chapter 1. ACHIEVING PROSPEROUS, NET-ZERO EU INDUSTRY BY 2050 14 Chapter 2. STEEL – INNOVATION LEADERSHIP FOR LOW-CO2 STEEL 68 Chapter 3. CHEMICALS - CLOSING THE SOCIETAL CARBON LOOP 100 Chapter 4. CEMENT & CONCRETE – REINVENTING A FUNDAMENTAL MATERIAL 156 4 Industrial Transformation 2050 – Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry / Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 Chapter 1. ACHIEVING PROSPEROUS, NET-ZERO EU INDUSTRY BY 2050 14 Chapter 2. STEEL – INNOVATION LEADERSHIP FOR LOW-CO2 STEEL 68 Chapter 3. CHEMICALS - CLOSING THE SOCIETAL CARBON LOOP 100 Chapter 4. CEMENT & CONCRETE – REINVENTING A FUNDAMENTAL MATERIAL 156 4 5 Industrial Transformation 2050 – Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry / Executive summary Industrial Transformation 2050 – Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry / Executive Summary executive summary This study explores multiple ways to achieve net-zero emissions from EU steel, plastics, ammonia and cement production while keeping that production in the EU. It quan- tifies the potential impact of different solutions and finds that emissions from those industries can be reduced to net zero by 2050, confirming the findings of the pathways present- ed in the Commission’s A Clean Planet for All. Many new solutions are emerging, thanks to a more circular economy with greater materials efficiency and extensive recycling of plastics and steel, as well as innovative industrial processes and carbon capture and storage. Many different industrial strategies and pathways can be combined to achieve net-zero emissions. The analysis finds that the impact on end-user/consumer costs will be less than 1% regardless of the path pursued – but all pathways require new production processes that are considerably costlier to industry, as well as significant near-term capital investment equivalent to a 25–60% increase on today’s rates. Keeping EU companies competitive as they pursue deep cuts to emissions will thus require a new net-zero CO2 industrial strategy and policy agenda. There is a need to accelerate innovation, enable early investment, support costlier low-CO2 production, overcome barriers to circular economy solutions, and ensure that companies can access the large amounts of clean electricity and other new inputs and infrastructure they need. Time is short, with 2050 only one investment cycle away, and any further delays will hugely complicate the transition. As the EU ponders its industrial future, this transformation should be a clear priority. 6 Industrial Transformation 2050 – Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry / Executive Summary NET-ZERO EMISSIONS FROM EU HEAVY INDUSTRY IS POSSIBLE BY 2050 The EU has set out a vision to achieve net-zero greenhouse This study confirmsthat it is possible to reduce emissions gas emissions by mid-century as a contribution to achieving from industry to net zero by 2050. It reaches this conclu- the Paris Agreement objectives of limiting global warming. sion by considering a much wider solution set than what is often discussed.
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