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What Matters for the Sarawak State Election

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What Matters for the Sarawak State Election ISSUE: 2020 No. 109 ISSN 2335-6677 RESEARCHERS AT ISEAS – YUSOF ISHAK INSTITUTE ANALYSE CURRENT EVENTS Singapore | 2 October 2020 What Matters for the Sarawak State Election Lee Poh Onn* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • The Sarawak state election is expected to take place sometime in the coming months. Its timing is likely to be affected by the currently tenuous situation prevailing for the Perikatan Nasional (PN) which may soon call for a snap general election to consolidate power. • Many factors are working in favour of the ruling coalition, the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS). These include disunity among the opposition parties, its stronger position in the federal government, and its handling of race and religion issues. • The continuing stance of disallowing United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) to enter the state also bodes well for GPS, as Sarawakians, in general, share a distrust towards federal politicians and Peninsular Malaysia. • The protection of native customary rights, managing GPS succession of candidates to minimise in-fighting and the rise of Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) are issues that the GPS will be carefully watching in the months ahead. • As such, GPS is certain to gain more than a two-thirds maJority, but perhaps less than the 72 of 82 seats won during the 11th Sarawak state election in 2016 (SSE 11). * Lee Poh Onn is Senior Fellow and a member of the Malaysia Studies Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. He would like to thank Francis E. HutChinson and Lee Hwok Aun for comments on an earlier draft, and Benjamin Hu for producing the map on Sarawak. 1 ISSUE: 2020 No. 109 ISSN 2335-6677 INTRODUCTION Looming in the mind of Sarawakians is the forthcoming 12th Sarawak state election (SSE 12)1 that has to be held latest by 7 September 2021. However, with the present disarray in the Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition coalition, holding the state election earlier is better for the ruling GPS. The promise made by the PH federal government when it was in power to pay Sabah and Sarawak 20% oil and gas royalties did not bear fruit, and the pledge to return 50% of tax revenue collected from Sarawak have remained unfulfilled. Presently, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) Sarawak is also not without its troubles.2 The recent resignation of Padungan DAP Assemblyperson Wong King Wei surprised many.3 Wong was “disillusioned with the direction and the way the party has been managed which has totally diverted from the aims, objectives and struggle in the earlier days...”.4 This Perspective examines factors that are likely to affect the timing and outcome of SSE 12. These include the currently tenuous situation prevailing for PN at the federal level, GPS support for PN, race and religion issues including Muafakat Nasional, lessons from GE 14 (in-fighting, native customary rights, politics of development), the Malaysia Agreement 1963, and the rise of Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB). GPS is likely to win more than a two- thirds maJority, but less than the 72 of 82 seats won in 2016.5 GPS (formerly Sarawak Barisan Nasional) is a coalition of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), Party Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP). The PBB more or less represents the Muslim community, SUPP the Chinese, and PDP and PRS the non-Muslim indigenous communities. GPS is now in a stronger position than it was in two years ago because it has “reJoined” the present federal government helmed by PN. GPS supports PN but is not a formal part of the coalition. Sarawak is unique. The Malay and Melanau make up about 30 per cent of the total population in Sarawak, the Dayak about 45 per cent and the ethnic Chinese about 24 per cent. Forty-four per cent of Sarawak’s population is Christian and only 30 per cent is Muslim. Since 1978, Sarawak is also the only state in Malaysia that holds its state elections separately from its parliamentary elections. The prerogative lies with each state to decide when to hold state elections. In SSE 12, 82 seats are to be contested (Map 1 below and Appendix 1). Of the constituencies, around 36 are Dayak maJority (22 are Iban predominant), 23 Malay/Melanau maJority, 13 Chinese-maJority, and 10 are mixed-ethnicity seats. In the 2016 state election, 28 constituencies saw three-cornered fights, 12 saw four-cornered fights, and five saw five- cornered fights (drawn from Appendix 1, Column 5). Then, DAP Sarawak and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) from the same coalition contested against each another in six constituencies (Column 5 Appendix 1). 6 The multiple cornered fights and a disunited opposition are expected to continue to work in favour of the GPS.7 TENUOUS SUPPORT FOR THE FEDERAL PN COALITION Analysts have speculated that SSE 12 may take place in November 2020, a month after the national Malaysian budget has been tabled and goodies handed out to Sarawak. In fact, a 2 ISSUE: 2020 No. 109 ISSN 2335-6677 snap General Election may also be called in November to consolidate the currently tenuous Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition which holds 113 parliamentary seats. The opposition holds 109 seats. The recent results of the Sabah state election which went its way may encourage PN to call for a general election in conjunction with Sarawak’s state election.8 Map 1 Note: Please see Appendix 1 (Column 4) for the breakdown of specific GPS component party (PBB, SUPP, PDP, PRS), specific PH component party (DAP, PKR), and their respective state seats. In 2016, GPS (then Sarawak Barisan Nasional) won 72 of the 82 state seats contested. BN direct candidates were required to return to their parties or join any other Sarawak Barisan Nasional component party upon winning a seat. Abdul Karim Rahman Hamzah, Sarawak Minister for Tourism, Art, Culture, Youth and Sports has advised that should a snap general election take place, then Sarawak should also hold its state polls at the same time.9 Not all parties in Sarawak are in favour of holding both elections concurrently, however. DAP Sarawak Chairman, Chong Chieng Jen, has said that holding separate elections has provided for more accountability in the past, as a state election is held about 2 years after a general election.10 The Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) is already reaching out to its 82 branches with about 350,000 members throughout Sarawak through a series of conventions. The first began in Miri on 5 September 2020, followed by one in Betong.11 This will be followed by a convention in Sibu in October, and then one in Kuching. Such conventions seek to remind Sarawak constituents of what GPS has “delivered” in the past few years. 3 ISSUE: 2020 No. 109 ISSN 2335-6677 SUPPORT FOR PN AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL – A STRONGER SARAWAK Benefits have already flowed back to the state, Petronas withdrew its legal challenge against the Sarawak state government over the State Sales Tax on petroleum products. In September, Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) and its subsidiaries handed over a cheque for RM2.96 billion to the Sarawak government as payment of arrears for the State Sales Tax (SST) on petroleum products. 12 Extra funding has also been promised for Sarawak’s dilapidated schools under the forthcoming 12th Malaysian Plan (2021 to 2025), with an additional 529 schools projected for redevelopment.13 GPS has been at pains to explain that it supports PN not because it backs the stance of UMNO and PAS who are the maJor component parties, but because it needs to strengthen its bargaining power and place Sarawakian concerns on a better foothold. Four MPs from GPS are now full ministers, and five others are deputy ministers in the federal government.14 Given the fragility of the ruling PN coalition, GPS is undoubtedly a kingmaker, providing 18 of the 113 parliamentary seats that PN commands. NO ENTRY FOR UMNO Another benefit of the current set-up is that Sarawak is ruled by a coalition of local parties, and the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has no presence in the state. The fear of what happened to Sabah when UMNO entered that state has remained enough a deterrent to ensure that Sarawakians continue to vote for GPS. The non-entry of UMNO has been in place since the time of Taib Mahmud, based on an implicit agreement that as long as the coalition of parties supported the federal BN government, UMNO would not enter the state. Successive Sarawak leaders have kept to that stance. Abang Johari recently said that “[T]hey don’t know our culture. In Sarawak, we co-exist. We will not allow them (Umno) to come into Sarawak, they are extreme. We can take care of ourselves.15 UMNO parliamentarians would harp on religious issues which should be a personal matter between men and God, Abang Johari added.16 RACE AND RELIGION IN SARAWAK INCLUDING MUAFAKAT NASIONAL Because of Sarawak’s demographic make-up, the politics of Ketuanan Melayu and Ketuanan Islam are considered controversial there. The ethnic Malays in Sarawak do not see Peninsular Malays as their brethren as the version of Islam practised in East Malaysia is more tolerant, attributed in part to its demographic composition.17 The Sarawak government actively supports other religions through its Unit for Other Religions (UNIFOR) established on 27 April 2017.18 Sarawak is the only state in Malaysia to have a unit dedicated to helping the different houses of worship other than Islam. In August, it was announced that the Chief Minister Abang Johari has not only provided the 1.2-hectare site for the construction of a UNIFOR Complex but had also provided a grant of RM70 million to cover construction costs.19 Through UNIFOR, churches have received funding for their projects: for example, fourteen houses of worship and religious organisations in the Layar state constituency recently received grants:20 The St Basil’s Parish in Kuching received a total of RM 1.4 million for 4 ISSUE: 2020 No.
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