Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood

Strathcona REGIONAL DISTRICT

STAFF REPORT

DATE: January 10, 2020 FILE: 0550-04 Board

TO: Chair and Directors, Regional Board

FROM: David Leitch Chief Administrative Officer

RE: NORTHWEST VANCOUVER ISLAND TSUNAMI MAPPING STUDY

PURPOSE/PROBLEM To consider applying in partnership with the Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tles7et'h' First Nations (KCFN) and Nuchatlaht First Nation (NFN) for a planning grant from the Union of BC Municipalities to help mitigate risk and develop in-depth tsunami modelling for the northwest coast of Vancouver Island (Cape Scott to Gold River).

POLICY ANALYSIS Having detailed information regarding the extent and potential vulnerabilities of tsunami events will enable the Regional District and other public bodies to better prepare, strategize and plan responses to such events and thereby meet their obligations under the Emergency Program Act.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Community Emergency Preparedness Fund (CEPF) is a suite of funding programs intended to enhance the resiliency of local governments and their residents in responding to emergencies. The Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping and Flood Mitigation Planning Grant program is part of the CEPF and is designed to support local governments to ensure that they have accurate knowledge of the flood hazards they face and to develop effective strategies to mitigate and prepare for those risks. The grant program can contribute up to 100% of the cost of eligible activities to a maximum of $150,000, provided the application has a Council or Board resolution confirming support for the proposed activities and for providing overall grant management. Local governments can submit one application per intake. The submission deadline for this grant is January 24, 2020.

The UBCM has advised that: a) since neither the KCFN, NFN or Strathcona Regional District have received this stream of grant funding in the past, this increases their chances of receiving this grant; and b) the grant application (if submitted as a joint venture) should be limited to a maximum of three $150,000 grants for a total of $450,000.

The Regional District would enter into a Memorandum of Understanding with the other public entities involved to provide overall supervision, coordination and financial resourcing for the project and seek reimbursement from the other project partners following its completion.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. THAT the report from the Chief Administrative Officer be received. Staff Report — Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mappinq Grant Paqe 2

2. THAT an application for $450,000 in funding for the Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Study be authorized for submission to the CEPF 2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping and Flood Mitigation Planning Grant program in conjunction with the partners identified in the January 10, 2020 report from the Chief Administrative Officer, and

THAT the Regional District commit to providing overall project management if the application is approved.

3. THAT the proposed Memorandum of Understanding with the Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:t1es7et'h' First Nations and the Nuchatlaht First Nation regarding the Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Study be approved for execution.

Respectfully:

/7 David Leitch /' / Chief Administrative Officer

BACKGROUND/HISTORY There are no high-resolution models for many sites on the northwest coast of Vancouver Island that are considered highly vulnerable to the effects of tsunami events. To date the only tsunami modelling that has been conducted for the northwest coast of Vancouver Island is the Coast Vulnerability Study that studied the area around Ehattesaht First Nation as well as Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tIes7et'h' First Nations and the 1997 research paper by Benson et. al that studied tsunami deposits from the 1700 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake. From an emergency planning and impact assessment perspective, the lack of relevant data diminishes the ability of public entities to adequately plan and prepare for such events.

The geographic scope the project under consideration would, at a minimum, model the area from Gold River to Cape Scott Provincial Park. The sources of the tsunami hazards considered for this study will be the Cascadia and Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zones. The conditions under which the tsunami threat would be modeled would be peak king tides under present conditions and those that are possible under a 1-metre (predicted year 2100) sea level rise. The objectives of the project would be to develop a series of maps that show the expected depth of water and the speed of the currents from an earthquake-generated tsunami, and further to:

• analyze the data specific to the geography of the region and identify seismic-generated tsunami hazards; • conduct flood modelling for most likely and worst-case tsunami hazard scenarios to determine potential inundation levels and velocities; • conduct a hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis that: o indicates the level of hazard in the assessment area and the potential risks to affected communities; o identifies populations and key infrastructure likely to be affected by tsunami events.

Tsunami inundation mapping is the first step in the development of effective response and evacuation plans for communities at risk as well as providing valuable date for future land-use planning decisions. Staff Report — Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Grant Page 3

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS Following is a breakdown of the activities proposed to be conducted under the auspices of the study project, if approved:

Estimated Proposed Activities Cost Analyze data specific to geography of the region to determine the potential levels of $60 000 inundation and tidal velocities during a high-water event in the assessment area. Indicate the level of hazard in the assessment area and the potential risks to affected $30 000 communities. Identify key infrastructure which is likely to be affected. $5,000 Identify and inform emergency response program development. $5,000 Creation of a tsunami inundation map, vulnerability map and hazard map for the $15 000 assessment area. Completion of Risk Assessment Information Templates for each community. $27,000 Staff I Governance Presentations $3,000 Community Presentations $5,000 Total $150,000

The information shown above is based on the scenario of the Regional District conducting its own study independently of the KCFN and NFN. If successful in its joint project submission with the KCFN and NFN, it is anticipated that the project budget would essentially be triple that shown.

LEGAL IMPLICATIONS Providing support for a CEPF grant indicates that the Strathcona Regional District is prepared to accept responsibility for this project and to provide overall grant management.

Section 6(2) of the Emergency Program Act states that a local authority must prepare or cause to be prepared local emergency plans respecting preparation for, response to and recovery from emergencies and disasters. The information obtained from this project would enable the Regional District to plan and prepare more effectively to deal with tsunami events within the region.

INTERGOVERNMENTAL/REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS Once completed, the proposed project will support local governments' and First Nations' ability to better understand and manage flood risk, as required under the British Columbia's Emergency Program Act, and: • to provide a comprehensive plan to all emergency management organizations, local governments, electoral areas and First Nations within the region for their use. • to support subsequent regional and local scale flood hazard land use planning and policy development, emergency planning, capital investment planning, capacity building and public outreach efforts; • to help to protect homes, businesses, and livelihoods from being damaged and destroyed by tsunami flooding; and • to aid in public education and preparedness efforts. By joining together and undertaking a regional effort the interested parties anticipate that economies of scale that would not otherwise be available can be realized. The results of the project will be made public and will be available for sharing with neighbouring jurisdictions. CITIZEN/PUBLIC RELATIONS IMPLICATIONS The geographic scope this project would, at minimum, model the area from Gold River I Yuquot to Cape Scott Provincial Park. The northwest coast of Vancouver Island has a largely forestry, aquaculture and tourism-based economy and the population varies significantly throughout the Staff Report — Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mappinq Grant Paqe 4 year. Like many tourism-orientated communities the number of people increases on weekends and also in the summer months. A listing of the physical and human assets within the area follows: Critical Assets: powerlines, marine transportation infrastructure (docks, marinas, fueling stations), health centres, sewer mains, water mains, ESS facilities, RCMP detachments, BCEHS ambulance stations, and local fire departments. Commercial / Recreational Assets: Provincial parks, fishing, retail and resort infrastructure. Cultural or Historical Assets: culturally modified trees and places of local importance to First Nations. Provincial Parks: Raft Cove Provincial Park, Cape Scott Provincial Park, Rugged Point Marine Park, Brooks Peninsula Provincial Park, Bligh Island Marine Provincial Park, Woss Lake Provincial Park, Tahsish-Kwois Provincial Park, Marble River Provincial Park. According to the 2016 census the population of the area is as follows:

2016 Census Community Population

Winter Harbour (unincorporated) 5

Holberg (unincorporated) 40

Coal Harbour (Local Community) 140

Port Alice (Village) 664

Quatsino (unincorporated) 70

Ehattesaht First Nation 90

Zeballos (Village) 107

Ka:yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tles7et'h' First Nations 180

Walter's Island (unincorporated) 100

Nuchatlaht First Nation 163

Tahsis (Village) 248

Gold River (Village) 1,212

INTERDEPARTMENTAL INVOLVEMENT/IMPLICATIONS Financial Services would manage the financial resources for the project and Protective Services would provide overall supervision of project deliverables.

Prepared by: S. Koopman — Protective Services Coordinator Staff Report — Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mappincj Grant Paqe 5

Attachments: A: Memorandum of Understanding B: Letter of Partnership Support from Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:t1es7et'h' First Nations C: Letter of Partnership Support from Nuchatlaht First Nations D: Map of proposed assessment area E: Community Emergency Preparedness Fund Grant Application Form F: Letter of Support from BC Parks G: Letter of Support from School District 84 H: Letter of Support from Mowachaht/Muchalaht First Nation I: Letter of Support from the Immigrant Welcome Centre J: Letter of Support from the Village of Port Alice MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING Between Strathcona Regional District and Nuchatlaht Tribe and Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tIes7eVh' First Nations

THE PARTIES This Memorandum of Understanding (hereinafter referred to as MOU) is entered into by and between the Strathcona Regional District, Ka:'yu:'k't'hYChe:k:tles7eth' First Nations, and the Nuchatlaht Tribe.

PURPOSE The purpose of this MOU is to facilitate the payback of the funds lent by the Strathcona Regional District to Ka:'yu:'k'Vh'/Che:k:tles7eVh' First Nations and the Nuchatlaht Tribe for the Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Project.

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

The Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Modelling Project is a joint venture partnership between the Strathcona Regional District, Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tles7et'h' First Nations, and the Nuchatlaht Tribe.

The purpose of this project is to:

• Analyze the data specific to the geography of the region and identify seismic- generated tsunami hazards; • Conduct flood modelling for most likely and worst-case tsunami hazard scenarios to determine potential inundation levels and velocities; • Conduct a hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis that: o Indicates the level of hazard in the assessment area and potential risks to affected communities. o Identifies populations and key infrastructure likely to be affected by tsunami events.

Project deliverables include:

• Completion of a Flood Risk Assessment, including: o Updating the tsunami component of a Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability Assessment; and o Completion of Risk Assessment Information Templates for each community.

• Developing or updating tsunami inundation maps to address tsunami risk including: o Acquisition of ground elevation data, bathymetry and mapping; o Plotting historical tsunami data and inundation mapping; o Hydrologic analysis including climate change forecasting and subsequent hydraulic modelling of several tsunami scenarios; o Geospatial, mapping and modelling activities including producing mapping of forecast; o Identifying locations of structures, people and assets that might be affected by tsunamis. . Presentations of the results to the governance committee and community.

METHODOLOGY The parties agree that the Regional District will assume responsibility for managing the project and disbursing funds as required to fulfill the objectives of the project. The parties will share equally in the costs of the project. Upon completion of the project the Regional District will be reimbursed by the other parties for their share of project costs.

BACKGROUND In order for the Strathcona Regional District to manage funds for the proposed Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Project that is being pursued through the Union of BC Municipalities' (UBCM) Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping and Flood Mitigation Planning Grant, the three partners are required to submit three applications for the same project. Each of the other partners will reimburse the Strathcona Regional District at the end of the project.

DETAILS OF THE AGREEMENT

• Ka:'yu:'k'VhYChe:k:tles7et'h' First Nations and Nuchatlaht Tribe agree to receive the initial $75,000 deposit from UBCM and safeguard the funds. • Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tles7eVh' First Nations and Nuchatlaht Tribe agree to issue Purchase Orders (P0) to the selected vendor in order to authorize the work. • Ka:'yu:'k't'hYChe:k:t1es7et'h' First Nations and Nuchatlaht Tribe agree that the Strathcona Regional District will manage project. • Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tles7eVh' First Nations and Nuchatlaht Tribe agree to sign the UBCM Final Grant Report prepared by the Strathcona Regional District and submit this document to the UBCM. • Ka:'yu:'k'VhYChe:k:tles7et'h' First Nation and Nuchatlaht Tribe agree to remit the final $75,000 final payment back to the Strathcona Regional District at the completion of the project.

CONTACT INFORMATION Strathcona Regional District Dave Leitch Chief Administrative Officer 301 — 990 Cedar St. Campbell River, BC V9W 7Z8 dleitch @ srd.ca 250-830-6700

Ka:'yu:'k't'hYChe:k:tles7et'h' First Nation Cynthia Blackstone Band Manager 190 Houpsitis Rd. Kyuquot, BC VOP 1JO General Delivery, Kyuquot, BC VOP 1J0 cynthiab@ kcfirstnations.com 250-332-5210

Nuchatlaht Tribe Helena Michael Band Manager #13 Upper Level Rd. Zeballos, BC VOP 2A0 P0 Box 40 Zeballos, BC VOP 2A0 Helena.michael @ nuchatlaht.com 250-332-5908

SIGNATURES

Date:

Helena Michael, Nuchatlaht Tribe

Date:

Cynthia Blackstone, Ka:'yu:'k't'h/Che:k:tles7et'h' First Nation

Date:

Dave Leitch, Strathcona Regional District

Dear Strathcona Regional District Board of Directors

The purpose of this letter is to express the interest and support of the Nuchatlaht Tribe to partner with the Strathcona Regional District for the Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Project and enter into a Memorandum of Understanding to pursue the project. Should you have any questions please feel free to contact me at 250-332-5908 or [email protected]

Sincerely,

Helena Michael

Band Manager

Nuchatlaht Tribe Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Modelling Project

0 15 30 60 Kilometers

Esri, HERE, Garmin, (c) OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community, Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, µ USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Community

Community Emergency Preparedness Fund Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning 2020 Application Form

Please complete and return the application form by January 24, 2020. All questions must be answered by typing directly in this form. If you have any questions, contact [email protected] or (250) 387-4470.

SECTION 1: Applicant Information AP (for administrative use only)

Name of Local Government or First Nation: Date of Application: January 20/2020 Strathcona Regional District

Contact Person*: Shaun Koopman Position: Protective Services Coordinator

Phone: 250-830-6702 E-mail: [email protected]

* Contact person must be an authorized representative of the applicant.

SECTION 2: Project Summary

1. Name of the Project: Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Project

2. Type of Project. Please identify each component you are applying for: Flood Risk Assessment Flood Mapping Flood Mitigation Planning

3. Project Cost & Grant Request: Total Project Cost: $150,000.00 Total Grant Request: $150,000 Have you applied for or received funding for this project from other sources (i.e. National Disaster Mitigation Program or Gas Tax) or any other flood planning project in your region? If yes, please elaborate. NA 4. Project Summary. Please provide a summary of your project in 150 words or less. To date there has been minimal tsunami modelling conducted for the northwest coast of Vancouver Island. For public messaging we say "20 meters in 20 minutes" for the northwest coast of Vancouver Island, but the islands and inlets will likely have different impacts on the tsunami wave depending on which fault the tsunami is generated by. From an emergency planning perspective, it is important that we obtain as accurate data as possible. The geographic scope this project would, at minimum, model from Gold River / Yuquot to Cape Scott Provincial Park. The source of the tsunami hazard considered for this study will be the Cascadia Subduction Zone; and the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone. Both models would study present-day and year-2100 sea level rise and model a tsunami that would occur at the time of high-water slack tide (Higher High Water Mean Tide).

SECTION 3: Detailed Project Information

5. Project Area. a. Describe the proposed project area (location, size, population, land use, etc.). Map indicating the location of the proposed project must be included with this application The geographic scope this project would, at minimum, model from Gold River / Yuquot to Cape Scott Provincial Park. The northwest coast of Vancouver Island has a largely forestry, aquaculture and tourism based economy and the population varies significantly throughout the year. Like many tourism orientated communities the number of people increases on weekends and also in the summer months. Critical Assets: Powerlines, Marine Transportation Infrastructure (docks, marina, fueling), Health Centres, Sewer Mains, Water Mains, ESS Facilities, RCMP Stations, BCEHS Stations, and Fire Departments. Commercial / Recreational Assets: Fishing, Retail, and Resort Infrastructure. Cultural or Historical Assets: Culturally modified trees and places of local importance to First Nations. Provincial Parks: Raft Cove Provincial Park, Cape Scott Provincial Park, Rugged Point Marine Park, Brooks Peninsula Provincial Park, Bligh Island Marine Provincial Park, Woss Lake Provincial Park, Tahsish-Kwois Provincial Park, and Marble River Provincial Park. According to the 2016 census the population of: Ehattesaht First Nation: 90 Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tles7et'h' First Nation: 180 Mt. Waddington Regional District’s Electoral Areas is: Coal Habour 140 Holberg 40 + on site forestry workers Winter Harbour 5 Nuchatlaht First Nation 163 Strathcona Regional District’s Electoral Areas is

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 2 Walter’s Cove: 100 The Village of Gold River: 1,212 The Village of Port Alice: 664 The Village of Tahsis: 248 The Village of Zeballos: 107

b. Does the proposed project build on other recent projects in your region? If yes, please explain. Yes Coastal Vulnerability Study - Phase 2 - Ehattesaht First Nation Draft Report Coast Vulnerability Study - Phase 2 - Kyuquot First Nation Draft Report Canadian Coast Guard lightstation studies. The Canadian Coast Guard emphasizes that the study was preliminary and based on an intermediate-scale numerical grid with no wetting-and-drying (run-up and inundation) capability.

6. Proposed Activities. a. What specific activities will be undertaken as part of the proposed project? Please refer to Section 4 of the Program & Application Guide for eligibility and note that activities must align with the required workplan and budget. *Completion of a Flood Risk Assessment, including: o Updating the flood component of a Hazard, Risk, and Vulnerability Assessment o Completion of Risk Assessment Information Templates (RAITs) *Developing or modernizing flood maps to address flood risk identified by a risk assessment, including: o Acquisition of ground elevation data, bathymetry and mapping o Plotting of historical flood data and inundation mapping o Hydrologic analysis including climate change forecasting and subsequent hydraulic modelling of several design flood scenarios (i.e. Q200, Q500, etc.) to calculate design flood elevations, extents, hazards and risks (as applicable) o Geospatial, mapping and modelling activities including producing mapping of forecasted design flood extents, hazards, risks and flood construction elevations (as applicable) o Identifying locations of structures, people and assets that might be affected by flooding *Presentation of the Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Map and/or Flood Mitigation Plan to Council, Board, Band Council or Treaty First Nation government, community organizations, etc. b. If applicable, describe how hydrology analysis and/or hydraulic modeling may be conducted as part of your project. The methodology for hazard identification, where possible, will determine tsunami occurrence and frequency based on predictive data for the surrounding area, as well as any existing historical data and Indigenous stories. Tsunami occurrence is characterized by the identification of possible seismic tsunamigenic sources and their general characteristics needed for tsunami generation, propagation and inundation modeling. Inundation modelling

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 3 will take a probabilistic approach, in which multiple tsunami scenarios are considered and an assessment of the vulnerability of the coast to tsunami hazard is evaluated. The following should be used to determine tsunami wave hazards: • Wave height and run-up; • Wave period and direction of approach; • Regional and site-specific water depth; • Tsunami-induced current speed; • An inundation line with associated probability; • Return period (recurrence interval); • Annual exceedance probability; and • Tsunami frequency-magnitude relationships. The deliverables in the identification of hazards consist of computer modelling of tsunami inundation - requiring the creation of a detailed tsunami source model(s), wave propagation model, and digital elevation model. Additional deliverables include a hazard map (identifying maximum current velocities and wave heights), an inundation map - which will aid in the identification of local hazards, at-risk areas for flooding/inundation, associated emergency routes, and affirmation of emergency mustering stations that are located outside of at risk areas, and a Risk Assessment Information Template (RAIT) for each community listed in Section 5.

7. Implementation Risks. List any potential implementation risks that may impact the ability to deliver on the project, and explain what mitigation measures are in place to address them (e.g. staff capacity, procurement, etc.). *If the Strathcona Regional District were to receive less than the provincial funding identified within the project budget. *If the firm awarded the contract were unable to complete the work on time, on budget, or to the Strathcona Regional District's satisfaction. *Availability of tsunami hazard information, weather conditions impacting capacity for data collection (if required). Mitigation Measures *Validate potential contractors with rigorous due diligence. *Evaluate the capabilities of the contractors, and if they intend to use them, their subcontractors. *Ensure the contractors are a viable, legitimate business. *Ensure contractors have the financial capability and organizational resources to provide the required services. *Ensure the contractors are not engaged in questionable ethical or legal activities. *Ensure the contractor provides a project plan outlining deliverables and timelines. *Ensure the contractor provides a clear, accurate and timely report, including the breakdown of expenditures. *Ensure oversight, accountability and transparency of the funds and how they are spent. *Ensure the contractor meets their obligations. *The Strathcona Regional District's Protective Services Coordinator will oversee the project, manage the contract and ensure receipt of deliverables.

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 4 *Consultants will be hired using open, fair and competitive procurement practices. *Regular project and financial reporting will be provided to the funders and partners.

8. Rationale. What is the rationale and evidence for undertaking this project? This may include local flood hazard and/or seismic vulnerability as identified in the Emergency Plan or flood mapping, threat levels identified in completed flood risk assessments and/or recent flood history (e.g. evacuation order and/or disaster financial assistance). To date the only tsunami modelling that has been conducted for the northwest coast of Vancouver Island is the Coast Vulnerability Study that studied the area around Ehattesaht First Nation and the 1997 research paper by Benson et. al that studied tsunami deposits from the 1700 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake. For public messaging we say "20 meters in 20 minutes" for the whole west coast of Vancouver Island, but the islands and inlets along the northwest coast of Vancouver Island will likely have different impacts on the tsunami wave depending on which fault the tsunami is generated by. From an emergency planning and impact assessment perspective I feel that it is important that we seek to obtain as accurate data as possible. As the northwest coast of Vancouver Island is located on the shores of the Pacific Ocean it is exposed to potential risk from tsunami events. In the event of a tsunami, there will be extensive damage to residential, commercial and institutional buildings as well as infrastructure. Tsunami waves have long wavelengths, exert large forces, and often carry debris with them. This will cause levels of damage that are higher than other types of coastal flooding. The largest tsunamis in British Columbia result from great (magnitude 8 or larger) earthquakes at the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a convergent plate boundary that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It poses the most significant and widespread tsunami threat to the BC coast because of its proximity and the expected magnitude of its earthquakes. Great megathrust earthquakes occur in the Cascadia sSubduction Zone roughly once every 500 years. The cost of recovery has not been estimated, however, the recovery costs for many other tsunamis in the world has been in the order of billions. For northwest Vancouver Island specifically, recovery would likely involve some level of repair or reconstruction for most infrastructure and a conservative estimate would put this cost in the order of millions of dollars. The recovery time for the northwest Vancouver Island is expected to be long. With a combination of damaged homes, businesses, and infrastructure across the region, the needs will be great and the available resources few. Immediate recovery with likely be in the order of months and longer term recovery likely in the order of years. The BC coast is also affected by tsunamis generated by more distant seismic sources in the Pacific. Other subduction zones can generate far field tsunamis with impacts to the northwest coast of Vancouver Island. Among distant tsunamis, the largest tsunami to strike BC was generated by the 1964 Alaska earthquake. The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone is a 4,000km long convergence boundary between the North American and Pacific plates, that extends from the Alaska Range to the Kamchatka Peninsula. The 1964 Alaska earthquake produced the largest tsunami waves to date on the BC coast. A warning for such an event was issued on January 23rd, 2018. A M7.9 earthquake occurred on a strike-slip fault, in the Gulf of Alaska, about 250 km SE of Kodiak Island and 100 km south of the Alaska-Aleutians trench. The earthquake generated a small tsunami that was recorded on a DART deep ocean sensor less than ten minutes after the earthquake and registered less than one-foot amplitudes on tide gauges in nearby Alaska. A peak amplitude of 0.13m was recorded at the north end of Haida

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 5 Gwaii. No damage occurred in northwest Vancouver Island, however it was a good test of community warning systems and emergency procedures. Therefore, both the Cascadia and Alaska-Aleutian subduction zones, the most severe cases for seismic-generated tsunamis, will be adopted in this proposed project.

9. Engagement & Collaboration a. Describe how the proposed project will contribute to a comprehensive, cooperative and regional approach to flood planning. The proposed project will support local government's ability to better understand and manage flood risk, as required under the British Columbia’s Emergency Program Act. It will also help to support local government's ability to develop and implement emergency plans and other preparedness, response and recovery measures. It will provide a comprehensive plan to all emergency management organizations, local governments, electoral areas and First Nations within the region for their use; allowing local governments and other stakeholder The proposed project will support subsequent regional and local scale flood hazard land use planning and policy development, emergency planning, capital investment planning, capacity building and public outreach efforts. The project will help to protect homes, businesses, and livelihoods from being damaged and even destroyed by tsunami flooding. It will aid in public education and preparedness effort. And economies of scale will be met by undertaking a regional effort. Results will be shared with neighbouring jurisdictions. b. List current and potential stakeholders and partnerships, and describe their level of engagement and commitment to the project. Ka:’yu:’k’t’h’/Che:k:tles7et’h’ First Nation - Project partner Nuchatlaht First Nation - Project Parnter BC Parks - Letter of Support Ehattesaht First Nation - In kind contributions Natural Resources Canada - Developing guidelines for tsunami and coastal storm sruge hazard and risk modelling in Canada. Mowachaht Muchalaht First Nation - In kind contributions Mt Waddington Regional District - In kind contributions Village of Gold River - In kind contributions Village of Tahsis - In kind contributions Village of Port Alice - In kind contributions Village of Zeballos - In kind contributions Interfor - Letter of support provided Immigrant Welcome Centre - Letter of support provided Nootka Sound Timber Company - Letter of support provided School District 84 - Letter of support provided Western Forest Products - Letter of support provided

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 6 10. Proposed Deliverables & Outcomes a. What specific deliverables will result from this project? *Tsunami maps illustrating potential levels on inundation and velocities associated with tsunami events; and *Improved emergency preparedness, mitigation, planning and response initiatives based on hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis. *Completion of Risk Assessment Information Templates (RAITs) for each community listed above. *Public education regarding their risk. b. Describe how the proposed project considers climate change in the project methodology and mitigates the impacts of climate change through the final deliverables. The geographic scope this project would, at minimum, model from Gold River / Yuquot to Cape Scott Provincial Park. The source of the tsunami hazard considered for this study will be the Cascadia Subduction Zone; and the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone. Both models would study present-day and year-2100 sea level rise and model a tsunami that would occur at the time of high-water slack tide (Higher High Water Mean Tide). Climate change will have an important role in tsunami vulnerability analysis in the near future. Based on worldwide tide gauge records, global sea level has risen more than 0.2m since the late 19th century and global mean sea levels are rising at approximately 3mm/yr. the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase in the future although projections of sea level rise are highly uncertain. the sea level rise policy for BC recommends using a 1.0m rise in global mean sea level between the year 2000 and 2100 for planning purposes. This study will incorporate a "future climate change" risk assessment and assume that 1.0m of local relative sea level rise has occurred. A full 1.0m of increased water level will be simulated to examine the behaviour of tsunami waves in the region. Assessment of climate considerations should be performed by reviewing global practices of tsunami awareness planning as it relates to climate change, and should incorporate considerations relevant to a local context. To identify the potential impacts of climate change, all data collection in the development of potential emergency scenarios and outcomes will take into account the most recently available scientific predictions related to climate change. It is anticipated that focus will be on long-term changes in coastal water levels due to regional tectonic processes, global eustatic sea level rise, storm surge frequency and intensity, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and the El Niño-La Niña cycle. These scenarios, which reflect potential future 'worst cases' will be incorporated into emergency response planning.

c. How will this proposed project lead to a better understanding of the social and economic impacts of flood events to the community? Risk evaluation via the employment of a risk matrix will determine if the estimated risks are tolerable, and then, if required, determine the appropriate and necessary risk mitigation options to reduce risks to within tolerable limits. Standardized risk assessment techniques will be utilized in order to populate the NDMP Risk Assessment Information Template (RAIT) and drive additional future recommendations regarding mitigation if necessary. Community resilience to a tsunami-related incident will be measured through an assessment of Coastal Community Resilience (CCR) - a method developed by the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Tsunami Research. The method involves a "rapid assessment, to be conducted as a collaborative

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 7 and participatory undertaking by coastal communities, national and local government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, private sector groups, and other key stakeholders to identify strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities to enhance resilience at local and national levels. The assessment should be conducted by a multidisciplinary team that includes members experienced in community development, coastal management, and disaster management." This CCR assessment may then be shared with all stakeholder groups to improve emergency response across a variety of government and non- government sectors. d. If applicable, how does this project address and/or inform existing or future amendments to local plans, policies, building codes, floodplain zoning bylaws, and/or public awareness/education? The project will inform hazard reduction measures including: *Further development of regulations and land use in coastal flood hazard areas; *Improvement of emergency preparedness plans and procedures; *Evacuation considerations; *Aiding the development of more refined public outreach and reduction on the tsunami hazard and mitigation measures; *Allowing for further identification of vulnerable areas, infrastructure and populations; and *Identifying areas requiring tsunami risk mitigation projects and investment.

11. Monitoring & Performance Measures. Describe how the project will be monitored and what performance measurements will be used (e.g. work progress reports, timeline review, resource planning, procurement plan and roll out, etc.). *The Strathcona Regional District's Protective Services Coordinator will oversee th eproject, manage the contract, and ensure the receipt of deliverables. *Consultants will be hired using an open, fair an competitive process. *Regular project and financial reporting will be provided to the funders and partners. *Issues and proposed changes to the project scope and design will be tested again the project charter.

12. Qualified Professionals. Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping and Flood Mitigation Planning require extensive technical knowledge and experience to successfully manage and efficiently complete. Outline your procurement process to engage the necessary subject matter expertise (Qualified Professionals) required for this work and the criteria you will use to make the selection. Proposals will be evaluated against the following criteria: Relevant project experience Financial terms including but not limited to hourly and weekly rates and payment terms with an indication of a fixed price not to exceed $150,000 inclusive of all project costs. Methodology, proposed method for collection, management of project related data Proposed method for collection and management of project related data Project team credentials Demonstrated plan for providing the services within the proposed project schedule

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 8 Demonstrated ability to incorporate ground truthing and Indigenous knowledge and Indigenous stories into project study Value added by mapping one or more scenarios beyond the project’s geographic scope to include areas of northeast Vancouver Island Value added items such public education components (documents and/or presentations) History of past performance and dealings with the Strathcona Regional District Value added items – mitigation plans and suggested mitigation measures References

13. Additional Information. Please share any other information you think may help support your submission. As advised by Rebecca Bishop at UBCM this partnership project between Kyuquot First Nations, Nuchatlaht First Nations and Strathcona Regional District was instructed not to apply for more than $450,000 (3 separate applications). In preparation for receiving this grant, Strathcona RD staff have performed and collected a literature review on West Coast Numerical Tsunami Model Publications which we will make available to the selected contractor: Fine, Isaac V., Richard E. Thomson, Lauren M. Lupton and Stephen Mundschutz. 2018. Numerical Modelling of an Alaska 1964-type Tsunami at the Canadian Coast Guard Base in Seal Cove, British Columbia. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean Sci. 321: v + 33p.

Fine, Isaac V., Richard E. Thomson, Lauren M. Lupton and Stephen Mundschutz, 2018. Numerical Modelling of a Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunami at the Canadian Coast Guard Base in Seal Cove, Prince Rupert, British Columbia. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean Sci. 322: v + 34p.

Fine, Isaac V. Fine, Richard E. Thomson, Lauren M. Lupton and Stephen Mundschutz 2018. Numerical Modelling of an Alaska 1964-type Tsunami at the Canadian Coast Guard Base in Victoria, British Columbia. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean Sci. 323: v + 28p.

Fine, Isaac V., Richard E. Thomson, Lauren M. Lupton and Stephen Mundschutz 2018. Numerical Modelling of a Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunami at the Canadian Coast Guard Base in Victoria, British Columbia. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean Sci. 324: v + 30p.

Fine, I.V., Cherniawsky, J.Y., Thomson, R.E., Rabinovich, A.B., Krassovski, M.V. Observations and numerical modeling of the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami off the coast of British Columbia, Pure Appl. Geophys., 2015, 172 (3-4), 699-718; doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-1012-7.

Thomson, R., I. Fine, A. Rabinovich, S. Mihály, E. Davis, M. Heesemann, and M. Krassovski. Observation of the 2009 Samoa tsunami by the NEPTUNE-Canada cabled observatory: Test

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 9 data for an operational regional tsunami forecast model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2011, 38, L11701, doi:10.1029/2011GL046728.

Rabinovich, Alexander B., Richard E. Thomson, Lauren M. Lupton and Stephen Mundschutz, 2018. Historical Tsunamis at the Seal Cove and Victoria Canadian Coast Guard Stations, British Columbia. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean Sci. 325: viii + 44p

Fine, I.V., A.B. Rabinovich, R.E. Thomson, and E.A. Kulikov, Numerical modeling of tsunami generation by submarine and subaerial landslides. In: Submarine Landslides and Tsunamis, edited by A.C. Yalciner, E.N. Pelinovsky, C.E. Synolakis, and E. Okal, NATO Adv. Series, Kluwer Acad. Publ., Dordrecht, 2003, 69-88. Rabinovich, A.B., R.E. Thomson, B.D. Bornhold, I.V. Fine, and E.A. Kulikov, Numerical modelling of tsunamis generated by hypothetical landslides in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Pure Appl. Geophys., 2003, 160, (7), 1273-1313.

Thomson, R.E., A.B. Rabinovich, E.A. Kulikov, I.V. Fine, and B.D. Bornhold, On numerical simulation of the landslide-generated tsunami of November 3, 1994 in Skagway Harbor, Alaska, in Tsunami Research at the End of a Critical Decade, edited by G. Hebenstreit, Kluwer Acad. Publ., Dordrecht, 2001, 243-282.

Fine, I.V., Cherniawsky, J.Y., Rabinovich, A.B. and Stephenson F.E. Numerical modeling and observations of tsunami waves in Alberni Inlet and Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Pure Appl. Geophys., 2008, 165, (11/12), 2019-2044.

General interest

Rabinovich, A.B., and F.E. Stephenson, Longwave measurements for the coast of British Columbia and improvements to the tsunami warning capability, Natural Hazards, 2004, 32, (3), 313-343. Fine, I.V., A.B. Rabinovich, B.D. Bornhold, R.E. Thomson, and E.A. Kulikov, The Grand Banks landslide-generated tsunami of November 18, 1929: Preliminary analysis and numerical modeling. Marine Geology, 2005, 215, 45-57. Thomson, R.E., D.J. Spear, A.B. Rabinovich, and T.A. Juhász, The 2011 Tohoku tsunami generated major environmental changes in a distal Canadian fjord, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2013, 40, doi:10.1002/2013GL058137. Rabinovich, A.B., R.E. Thomson, and I.V. Fine, The 2010 Chilean tsunami off the west coast of Canada and the northwest coast of the United States, Pure Appl. Geophys., 2013, 170, 1529- 1565, doi 10.1007/s00024-012-0541-1.

SECTION 4: Required Application Materials

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 10 Only complete applications will be considered for funding. The following separate attachments are required to be submitted as part of the application: • Local government Council or Board resolution, Band Council resolution or Treaty First Nation resolution, indicating support for the current proposed activities and willingness to provide overall grant management. • Detailed workplan and budget for each component identified in the application. This must include a breakdown of work activities, tasks, deliverables or products, resources, timelines (start and end dates), and other considerations or comments. The budget must clearly identify the CEPF funding request, applicant contribution, and/or other grant funding. • Map identifying the location of the proposed project. • If applicable, copies of any relevant documents that support the rationale for this project must be included with this application. i.e., Mitigation Planning applications should be supported by flood mapping and/or risk assessments for the proposed area.

Eligible applicants and qualified professionals must consult with the following documents (as necessary) to assist in developing the work plan and budget: • Provincial Flood Hazard Area Land Use Management Guidelines • Professional Practice Guidelines – Legislated Flood Assessments in a Changing Climate in BC • Specifications for LiDAR for the Province of British Columbia • Flood Mapping in BC: APEGBC Professional Practice Guidelines V 1.0 • Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series

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SECTION 5: Signature

I certify that: (1) to the best of my knowledge, all information is accurate and (2) the area covered by the proposed project is within our local authority’s jurisdiction (or appropriate approvals are in place).

Name: Shaun Koopman Title: Protective Services Coordinator

Signature: Date: January 20/2020 An electronic or original signature is required.

Submit applications to Local Government Program Services, Union of BC Municipalities E-mail: [email protected] Mail: 525 Government Street, Victoria, BC, V8V 0A8

2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping & Flood Mitigation Planning - Application Form 11

January 7, 2020

File: 99200-40/Strathcona Regional District

The Evaluation Committee of the UBCM 2020 C/O Shaun Koopman Protective Services Coordinator Strathcona Regional District 301 - 990 Cedar Street Campbell River BC V9W 7Z8

Via Email: [email protected]

Dear Mr. Koopman:

Re: Community Emergency Preparedness Fund – Flood Planning Grant

The purpose of this letter is to express the support of BC Parks, West Coast Region, for the Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Modeling Project being pursued by the Strathcona Regional District through the Union of BC Municipalities Community Emergency Preparedness Fund Flood Planning Grant.

Tsunami inundation mapping is the first step in the development of effective evacuation plans for communities at risk. These maps also provide a base for stakeholders in communities to reduce risk.

BC Parks would benefit from the final result of this project, which is a series of maps that show the expected depth of water and the speed of the currents from an earthquake generated tsunami.

BC Parks would benefit from this project with a better understanding of risk related mapping for the following Provincial Parks in the study area: Raft Cove Provincial Park, Cape Scott Provincial Park, Rugged Point Marine Park, Brooks Peninsula Provincial Park, Bligh Island Marine Provincial Park, Woss Lake Provincial Park, Tahsish-Kwois Provincial Park and Marble River Provincial Park.

…2

Ministry of Environment and West Coast Region Mailing Address: Telephone: 250 337-2406 Climate Change Strategy BC Parks 1812 Miracle Beach Drive Facsimile: 250 337-5695 Black Creek BC V9J 1K1 Website: www.gov.bc.ca/env

The Evaluation Committee of the UBCM 2020 C/O Shaun Koopman Protective Services Coordinator Strathcona Regional District - 2 - January 7, 2020

Building disaster resilient communities requires teamwork with regional partners. We hope you will seriously consider this grant application for funding.

Yours truly,

Brent Blackmun Nootka Area Supervisor cc: Jessie Moore, Cape Scott Area Supervisor, BC Parks, Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy