Strathcona REGIONAL DISTRICT STAFF REPORT DATE: January 10, 2020 FILE: 0550-04 Board TO: Chair and Directors, Regional Board FROM: David Leitch Chief Administrative Officer RE: NORTHWEST VANCOUVER ISLAND TSUNAMI MAPPING STUDY PURPOSE/PROBLEM To consider applying in partnership with the Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tles7et'h' First Nations (KCFN) and Nuchatlaht First Nation (NFN) for a planning grant from the Union of BC Municipalities to help mitigate risk and develop in-depth tsunami modelling for the northwest coast of Vancouver Island (Cape Scott to Gold River). POLICY ANALYSIS Having detailed information regarding the extent and potential vulnerabilities of tsunami events will enable the Regional District and other public bodies to better prepare, strategize and plan responses to such events and thereby meet their obligations under the Emergency Program Act. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Community Emergency Preparedness Fund (CEPF) is a suite of funding programs intended to enhance the resiliency of local governments and their residents in responding to emergencies. The Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping and Flood Mitigation Planning Grant program is part of the CEPF and is designed to support local governments to ensure that they have accurate knowledge of the flood hazards they face and to develop effective strategies to mitigate and prepare for those risks. The grant program can contribute up to 100% of the cost of eligible activities to a maximum of $150,000, provided the application has a Council or Board resolution confirming support for the proposed activities and for providing overall grant management. Local governments can submit one application per intake. The submission deadline for this grant is January 24, 2020. The UBCM has advised that: a) since neither the KCFN, NFN or Strathcona Regional District have received this stream of grant funding in the past, this increases their chances of receiving this grant; and b) the grant application (if submitted as a joint venture) should be limited to a maximum of three $150,000 grants for a total of $450,000. The Regional District would enter into a Memorandum of Understanding with the other public entities involved to provide overall supervision, coordination and financial resourcing for the project and seek reimbursement from the other project partners following its completion. RECOMMENDATIONS 1. THAT the report from the Chief Administrative Officer be received. Staff Report — Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mappinq Grant Paqe 2 2. THAT an application for $450,000 in funding for the Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Study be authorized for submission to the CEPF 2020 Flood Risk Assessment, Flood Mapping and Flood Mitigation Planning Grant program in conjunction with the partners identified in the January 10, 2020 report from the Chief Administrative Officer, and THAT the Regional District commit to providing overall project management if the application is approved. 3. THAT the proposed Memorandum of Understanding with the Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:t1es7et'h' First Nations and the Nuchatlaht First Nation regarding the Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Study be approved for execution. Respectfully: /7 David Leitch /' / Chief Administrative Officer BACKGROUND/HISTORY There are no high-resolution models for many sites on the northwest coast of Vancouver Island that are considered highly vulnerable to the effects of tsunami events. To date the only tsunami modelling that has been conducted for the northwest coast of Vancouver Island is the Coast Vulnerability Study that studied the area around Ehattesaht First Nation as well as Ka:'yu:'k't'h'/Che:k:tIes7et'h' First Nations and the 1997 research paper by Benson et. al that studied tsunami deposits from the 1700 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake. From an emergency planning and impact assessment perspective, the lack of relevant data diminishes the ability of public entities to adequately plan and prepare for such events. The geographic scope the project under consideration would, at a minimum, model the area from Gold River to Cape Scott Provincial Park. The sources of the tsunami hazards considered for this study will be the Cascadia and Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zones. The conditions under which the tsunami threat would be modeled would be peak king tides under present conditions and those that are possible under a 1-metre (predicted year 2100) sea level rise. The objectives of the project would be to develop a series of maps that show the expected depth of water and the speed of the currents from an earthquake-generated tsunami, and further to: • analyze the data specific to the geography of the region and identify seismic-generated tsunami hazards; • conduct flood modelling for most likely and worst-case tsunami hazard scenarios to determine potential inundation levels and velocities; • conduct a hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis that: o indicates the level of hazard in the assessment area and the potential risks to affected communities; o identifies populations and key infrastructure likely to be affected by tsunami events. Tsunami inundation mapping is the first step in the development of effective response and evacuation plans for communities at risk as well as providing valuable date for future land-use planning decisions. Staff Report — Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mapping Grant Page 3 FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS Following is a breakdown of the activities proposed to be conducted under the auspices of the study project, if approved: Estimated Proposed Activities Cost Analyze data specific to geography of the region to determine the potential levels of $60 000 inundation and tidal velocities during a high-water event in the assessment area. Indicate the level of hazard in the assessment area and the potential risks to affected $30 000 communities. Identify key infrastructure which is likely to be affected. $5,000 Identify and inform emergency response program development. $5,000 Creation of a tsunami inundation map, vulnerability map and hazard map for the $15 000 assessment area. Completion of Risk Assessment Information Templates for each community. $27,000 Staff I Governance Presentations $3,000 Community Presentations $5,000 Total $150,000 The information shown above is based on the scenario of the Regional District conducting its own study independently of the KCFN and NFN. If successful in its joint project submission with the KCFN and NFN, it is anticipated that the project budget would essentially be triple that shown. LEGAL IMPLICATIONS Providing support for a CEPF grant indicates that the Strathcona Regional District is prepared to accept responsibility for this project and to provide overall grant management. Section 6(2) of the Emergency Program Act states that a local authority must prepare or cause to be prepared local emergency plans respecting preparation for, response to and recovery from emergencies and disasters. The information obtained from this project would enable the Regional District to plan and prepare more effectively to deal with tsunami events within the region. INTERGOVERNMENTAL/REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS Once completed, the proposed project will support local governments' and First Nations' ability to better understand and manage flood risk, as required under the British Columbia's Emergency Program Act, and: • to provide a comprehensive plan to all emergency management organizations, local governments, electoral areas and First Nations within the region for their use. • to support subsequent regional and local scale flood hazard land use planning and policy development, emergency planning, capital investment planning, capacity building and public outreach efforts; • to help to protect homes, businesses, and livelihoods from being damaged and destroyed by tsunami flooding; and • to aid in public education and preparedness efforts. By joining together and undertaking a regional effort the interested parties anticipate that economies of scale that would not otherwise be available can be realized. The results of the project will be made public and will be available for sharing with neighbouring jurisdictions. CITIZEN/PUBLIC RELATIONS IMPLICATIONS The geographic scope this project would, at minimum, model the area from Gold River I Yuquot to Cape Scott Provincial Park. The northwest coast of Vancouver Island has a largely forestry, aquaculture and tourism-based economy and the population varies significantly throughout the Staff Report — Northwest Vancouver Island Tsunami Mappinq Grant Paqe 4 year. Like many tourism-orientated communities the number of people increases on weekends and also in the summer months. A listing of the physical and human assets within the area follows: Critical Assets: powerlines, marine transportation infrastructure (docks, marinas, fueling stations), health centres, sewer mains, water mains, ESS facilities, RCMP detachments, BCEHS ambulance stations, and local fire departments. Commercial / Recreational Assets: Provincial parks, fishing, retail and resort infrastructure. Cultural or Historical Assets: culturally modified trees and places of local importance to First Nations. Provincial Parks: Raft Cove Provincial Park, Cape Scott Provincial Park, Rugged Point Marine Park, Brooks Peninsula Provincial Park, Bligh Island Marine Provincial Park, Woss Lake Provincial Park, Tahsish-Kwois Provincial Park, Marble River Provincial Park. According to the 2016 census the population of the area is as follows: 2016 Census Community Population Winter Harbour (unincorporated)