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Analysis of Barriers to Renewable Energy Development in Kazakhstan” 저작자표시-비영리-변경금지 2.0 대한민국 이용자는 아래의 조건을 따르는 경우에 한하여 자유롭게 l 이 저작물을 복제, 배포, 전송, 전시, 공연 및 방송할 수 있습니다. 다음과 같은 조건을 따라야 합니다: 저작자표시. 귀하는 원저작자를 표시하여야 합니다. 비영리. 귀하는 이 저작물을 영리 목적으로 이용할 수 없습니다. 변경금지. 귀하는 이 저작물을 개작, 변형 또는 가공할 수 없습니다. l 귀하는, 이 저작물의 재이용이나 배포의 경우, 이 저작물에 적용된 이용허락조건 을 명확하게 나타내어야 합니다. l 저작권자로부터 별도의 허가를 받으면 이러한 조건들은 적용되지 않습니다. 저작권법에 따른 이용자의 권리는 위의 내용에 의하여 영향을 받지 않습니다. 이것은 이용허락규약(Legal Code)을 이해하기 쉽게 요약한 것입니다. Disclaimer Ph.D. Dissertation in Engineering Promoting a Clean Power Industry in the Kazakhstan framework of Green Economy February 2020 Graduate School of Seoul National University Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program Akbota Amantay i Promoting a Clean Power Industry in the Kazakhstan framework of Green Economy 2020 년 2 월 서울대학교 대학원 협동과정 기술경영경제정책전공 Akbota Amantay 아크보타 아만타이의 박사학위논문을 인준함 2020 년 2 월 위 원 장 허은녕 (인) 부위원장 김연배 (인) 위 원 부경진 (인) 위 원 한훈 (인) 위 원 유진근 (인) ii Abstract This study aims to analyze the electricity sector within the conceptual framework of the "Green Economy" in Kazakhstan. The electricity sector in the Republic of Kazakhstan plays a significant role in contributing to environmental pollution, especially through the availability of coal, oil, and gas. In accordance with the Concept of a “Green Economy”- Kazakhstan plans to modernize its electricity sector over the next 30 years in order to reduce CO2 emissions, gasify some regions, and increase the share of renewable energy. The main objective of this study was to examine three questions: The first essay, “The Environmental Consequences of Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Republic of Kazakhstan,” concerns the impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan, controlling for energy consumption, in the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework. The results show that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is confirmed, energy consumption increases CO2 emissions, and that government policy which was interpreted in estimation by dummy variable (D07), has negative significance in CO2 emissions. This also means that the CO2 emissions reduction policy is working. The second essay, is the “Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation by using Coal and Gas fuels in Kazakhstan”, performs an analysis of the past patterns of CO2 emissions from electricity generation, while also analyzing the driving factors, based on index decomposition analysis (LMDI) over three periods: 1990-2000, 2000-2008 and 2008-2016. The economic activity effect ∆GDP increased CO2 from -0.72 Mt during the first period to 0.00 Mt and, the electricity intensity effect ∆EI from -0.26Mt to 0.33Mt. while, the electricity generation efficiency effect ∆EGEF has decreased from at 0.66Mt during the first period to 0.04 Mt. The thermal power structure effect ∆SEG increased from the -0.65Mt during the first period to 0.10Mt, while the changes in the electricity structure effect ∆STPG increased from -0.23Mt to 0.45 by the last period. Third essay is “Analysis of barriers to renewable energy development in Kazakhstan”. We determined 16 (four main criteria and 12 sub-criteria) barriers from previous studies, articles and papers, as well as through interactions with experts in energy fields from two groups ( private and iii government experts).We used the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) methodology to identify the importance ranks of barriers regarding renewable energy. The results show that for government experts, economic barriers, and for private experts, technical barriers are the most important. Overall, in terms of these barriers, government experts rank low levels of investment as the most important factor, while private experts rank the lack of infrastructure and transmission system sub- criterion as the most important factor. Key words: ARDL approach, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), LMDI, Republic of Kazakhstan, Renewable energy sources, CO2 emissions, Electricity, Green economy. Student number: 2016-30760 iv Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. iii Contents ................................................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ xi Chapter 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Purpose of study ................................................................................................................................ 4 1.3 Dissertation structure.......................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2. The Current Status of the Electricity Industry in Kazakhstan ...................................... 9 2.1. Electricity industry in Kazakhstan .................................................................................................... 9 2.2. Current situation .............................................................................................................................. 12 2.3. Green Economy as a way to develop sustainable power industry................................................... 14 Chapter 3. First essay: The Environmental Consequences of Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Republic of Kazakhstan ....................................................................................................... 20 3.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 20 3.2. Policy of reducing CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan .......................................................................... 21 3.3. Purpose of study .............................................................................................................................. 27 3.4. Literature review ............................................................................................................................. 29 3.5 Research question ............................................................................................................................. 35 3.6. Model and methodology: ARDL approach. .................................................................................... 35 3.7. Analysis and result .......................................................................................................................... 39 3.8. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 44 v Chapter 4. Second essay: Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation by using Coal and Gas fuels in Kazakhstan .................................................................. 47 4.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 47 4.2. The role of coal and gas in electricity generation ........................................................................... 48 4.3. Purpose of study .............................................................................................................................. 51 4.4. Literature review ............................................................................................................................. 53 4.5. Research question ............................................................................................................................ 54 4.6. Model and Methodology: LMDI approach .................................................................................... 59 4.7. Data source ...................................................................................................................................... 59 4.8. Analysis result ................................................................................................................................ .62 4.9. Contribution of study ...................................................................................................................... 63 4.9.1. Analysis of CO2 emissions .......................................................................................................... 63 4.9.2. Decomposition analysis................................................................................................................ 64 4.10. Comparison analysis ..................................................................................................................... 81 4.10.1. Decomposition analysis for Kazakhstan in 1990-2016 years ..................................................... 81 4.11. Conclusion and Policy Implication ............................................................................................... 89 Chapter 5. Third essay: Analysis of barriers to renewable energy development in Kazakhstan ..........................................................................................................................................
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