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Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
A Study of the Health of the Employees of Atomic Energy of Canada Limited
124+ AECL-6813 ATOMIC ENERGY flKB L'ENERGIE ATOMIQUE OF CANADA WAITED TA&J DU CANADA UMITEE A STUDY OF THE HEALTH OF THE EMPLOYEES OF ATOMIC ENEMY OF CANADA LIMITED I. SETTING UP THE STUDY ETUDE DE LA SAUTE DU PERSONNEL DE L'ENEtCIE ATOMIQUE DU CANADA UMITEE I. ORGANISATION DE L'ETUDE J. L. Weeks Whiteshell Nuclear Research Etablissement de Recherches Establishment Nuclfaires de Whiteshell Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1LO September 1981 septembre ATOMIC ENERGY OF CANADA LIMITED A STUDY OF THE HEALTH OF THE EMPLOYEES OF ATOMIC ENERGY OF CANADA LIMITED I. SETTING UP THE STUDY by J.L. Weeks Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1LO 1981 September AECL-6813 ETUDE DE LA SANTE DU PERSONNEL DE L1ENERGIE ATOMIQUE DU CANADA LIMITEE I. ORGANISATION DE L1ETUDE par J.L. Weeks RESUME Ce rapport resume l'etat present de 1'Etude de la sante du personnel de 1'Energie Atomique du Canada Limitee; il est redige sous forme de source de reference pour les personnes travaillant a cette etude. II contient, sous une forme revisee, quelques extraits d'une publication precedente (J.L. Weeks, Un Registre pour 1'Etude de la sante des travailleurs sous rayonnement employes par 1'Energie Atomique du Canada Limitee, AECL-6194 ('1979), de meme que des renselgnements sur les methodes employees lors de 1'organisation de I1etude. Les differences entre ce rapport et AECL-6194 decoulent des developpements du concept de I1etude intervenus au cours d'une periode de deux ans. Certains details de ce rapport pourraient interesser les per- sonnes travaillant a des programmes similaires. -
Phillip STILLMAN, the Narrative of Human Extinction and the Logic Of
Phillip Stillman Two Nineteenth- Century Contributions to Climate Change Discourse: The Narra- W e a tive of Hu- t h e r man Extinction S c a and the p e g o Logic of Eco- a t 8 sys- tem Management 92 The Narrative of Human Extinction ... Consider the following passage from Oscar Wilde’s “Decay of Lying” (1891): Where, if not from the Impressionists, do we get those wonderful brown fogs that come creeping down our streets, blurring the gas-lamps and changing the houses into monstrous shadows? [...] The extraordinary change that has taken place in the climate of London during the last ten years is entirely due to a particular school of Art. [...] For what is Nature? Nature is no great mother who has borne us. She is our creation. It is in our brain that she quickens to life. Things are because we see them, and what we see, and how we see it, depends on the Arts that have influenced us.1 The speaker is Vivian, a self-consciously sophistical aesthete, and his argument is that “Nature” is the causal consequence of “Art.” Not long ago, a literary critic might have quoted such a passage with unmitigated approbation: “Things are because we see them, and what we see, and how we see it, depends on the Arts that have influenced us.” The post-structural resonance of that kind of claim is strong, and the Jamesonian tradition of treating art as a means through which ideology reproduces itself depends heavily on the conviction that between the knower and the known, there must be some determining symbolic mediation.2 Now, however, it is difficult not to hesitate over the assertion that the “extraordinary change that has taken place in the climate of London during the last ten years is entirely due to a particular school of Art.” Now we tend to take referential 1 Oscar Wilde, “The Decay of Lying,” in The claims about “Nature” very seriously, especially with regard to Artist as Critic: Critical Writings of Oscar Wilde, ed. -
Effects of Electron Irradiation and Percent Composition on the Glass Transition Temperature and Damping of Boron-Epoxy Composites
W&M ScholarWorks Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects Theses, Dissertations, & Master Projects 1996 Effects of Electron Irradiation and Percent Composition on the Glass Transition Temperature and Damping of Boron-Epoxy Composites Ian Ivan Nieves College of William & Mary - Arts & Sciences Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wm.edu/etd Part of the Physical Chemistry Commons Recommended Citation Nieves, Ian Ivan, "Effects of Electron Irradiation and Percent Composition on the Glass Transition Temperature and Damping of Boron-Epoxy Composites" (1996). Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects. Paper 1539626045. https://dx.doi.org/doi:10.21220/s2-rs2j-6j40 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, & Master Projects at W&M ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects by an authorized administrator of W&M ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Effects of Electron Irradiation and Percent Composition on the Glass Transition Temperature and Damping of Boron-Epoxy Composites A Thesis Presented to the Department of Chemistry The College of William and Mary in Virginia In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts by Ian Ivan Nieves 1996 APPROVAL SHEET This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Ian Ivan Nieves Approved, September 1996 Richard E. Kiefer William H. Starnes, Jr. Robert D. Pike TABLE OF CONTENTS -
Global Catastrophic Risks Survey
GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS SURVEY (2008) Technical Report 2008/1 Published by Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom At the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17‐20 July, 2008) an informal survey was circulated among participants, asking them to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. This report summarizes the main results. The median extinction risk estimates were: Risk At least 1 million At least 1 billion Human extinction dead dead Number killed by 25% 10% 5% molecular nanotech weapons. Total killed by 10% 5% 5% superintelligent AI. Total killed in all 98% 30% 4% wars (including civil wars). Number killed in 30% 10% 2% the single biggest engineered pandemic. Total killed in all 30% 10% 1% nuclear wars. Number killed in 5% 1% 0.5% the single biggest nanotech accident. Number killed in 60% 5% 0.05% the single biggest natural pandemic. Total killed in all 15% 1% 0.03% acts of nuclear terrorism. Overall risk of n/a n/a 19% extinction prior to 2100 These results should be taken with a grain of salt. Non‐responses have been omitted, although some might represent a statement of zero probability rather than no opinion. 1 There are likely to be many cognitive biases that affect the result, such as unpacking bias and the availability heuristic‒‐well as old‐fashioned optimism and pessimism. In appendix A the results are plotted with individual response distributions visible. Other Risks The list of risks was not intended to be inclusive of all the biggest risks. -
Modern Technology and Human Extinction
Proceedings of Informing Science & IT Education Conference (InSITE) 2016 Cite as: Schultz, R. A. (2016). Modern technology and human extinction. Proceedings of Informing Science & IT Edu- cation Conference (InSITE) 2016, 131-145. Retrieved from http://www.informingscience.org/Publications/3433 Modern Technology and Human Extinction Robert A. Schultz Woodbury University, Burbank, CA, USA [email protected] Abstract [Note: Portions of this paper were previously published in Schultz, 2014.] The purpose of this paper is to describe and explain a central property of modern technology that makes it an important potential contributor to human extinction. This view may seem strange to those who regard technology as an instrument of human growth. After discussing modern tech- nology and two important candidates for extinction, other technological candidates for serious contribution to human extinction will be examined. The saving contribution of information tech- nology is also discussed. Keywords: technology, classical technology, modern technology, information technology, gradu- al extinction, sudden extinction. Introduction Helping to further human extinction is not a feature of all technology, but rather of technology we can call modern. In this paper, modern technology is considered to be technology since the in- dustrial revolution. Its distinctive feature is that it regards everything as resources for its own processes. Serious conflicts with the ecosystems that support all life are inevitable and not easily preventable. A Very Brief History of Technology Technology can be thought of as having four stages: >> Proto-technology, early tool development before civilization, one million, possibly 2 million years old. >> The classical technology of agriculture and cities that enabled the rise of civilization, roughly 10,000 years old. -
The Coral Reef Environmental "Crisis": Negotiating Knowledge in Scientific Uncertainty and Geographic Difference Ba#Rbel G
Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2010 The Coral Reef Environmental "Crisis": Negotiating Knowledge in Scientific Uncertainty and Geographic Difference Ba#rbel G. Bischof Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & PUBLIC POLICY THE CORAL REEF ENVIRONMENTAL “CRISIS”: NEGOTIATING KNOWLEDGE IN SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY AND GEOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCE By BÄRBEL G. BISCHOF A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Geography in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree Awarded: Summer Semester, 2010 i The members of the committee approve the dissertation of Bärbel G. Bischof, defended on May 7, 2010. !!!!!!_____________________________________________ !!!!!!Philip E. Steinberg !!!!!! Professor Directing Dissertation !!!!!!_____________________________________________ !!!!!!Ronald E. Doel !!!!!! University Representative !!! !!!!!!_____________________________________________ !!!!!!James B. Elsner !!!!!! Committee Member !!!!!!_____________________________________________ !!!!!!Xiaojun Yang !!!!!! Committee Member !!!!!! Approved: ______________________________________________________________ Victor Mesev, Chair, Department of Geography ______________________________________________________________ David W. Rasmussen, Dean, College of Social Sciences & Public Policy The Graduate School has verified and approved the -
Asia's Next Challenge: Securing the Region's Water Future
Asia’s Next Challenge: Securing the Region’s Water Future A report by the Leadership Group on Water Security in Asia Asia’s Next Challenge: Securing the Region’s Water Future A report by the Leadership Group on Water Security in Asia April 2009 WITH SUPPORT FROM: Rockefeller Brothers Fund Alfred and Jane Ross Foundation Asia Society Leadership Group on Water Security in Asia Chairman Tommy Koh, Singapore’s Ambassador at Large; Chairman, Asia Pacific Water Forum Project Director Suzanne DiMaggio, Director, Asian Social Issues Program, Asia Society Principal Advisor Saleem H. Ali, Professor of Environmental Planning and Asian Studies, University of Vermont Members Andrew Benedek, Founder, Chairman, and CEO, ZENON Environmental, Inc. Gareth Evans, President, International Crisis Group; former Foreign Minister of Australia Ajit Gulabchand, CEO, Hindustan Construction Co. (India); founding member of the Disaster Resource Network (DRN) in collaboration with the World Economic Forum Han Sung-joo, Chairman and Director, Asan Institute for Policy Studies; former Foreign Minister of South Korea Yoriko Kawaguchi, Member, House of Councillors; Chair of the Liberal Democratic Party Research Commission on Environment; former Foreign and Environment Minister of Japan Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Director- General, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Surin Pitsuwan, Secretary-General, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); former Foreign Minister of Thailand Jeffrey Sachs, Director, Earth Institute, -
Resilience to Global Catastrophe
Resilience to Global Catastrophe Seth D. Baumi* Keywords: Resilience, catastrophe, global, collapse *Corresponding author: [email protected] Introduction The field of global catastrophic risk (GCR) studies the prospect of extreme harm to global human civilization, up to and including the possibility of human extinction. GCR has attracted substantial interest because the extreme severity of global catastrophe makes it an important class of risk, even if the probabilities are low. For example, in the 1990s, the US Congress and NASA established the Spaceguard Survey for detecting large asteroids and comets that could collide with Earth, even though the probability of such a collision was around one-in-500,000 per year (Morrison, 1992). Other notable GCRs include artificial intelligence, global warming, nuclear war, pandemic disease outbreaks, and supervolcano eruptions. While GCR has been defined in a variety of ways, Baum and Handoh (2014, p.17) define it as “the risk of crossing a large and damaging human system threshold”. This definition posits global catastrophe as an event that exceeds the resilience of global human civilization, potentially sending humanity into a fundamentally different state of existence, as in the notion of civilization collapse. Resilience in this context can be defined as a system’s capacity to withstand disturbances while remaining in the same general state. Over the course of human history, there have been several regional-scale civilization collapses, including the Akkadian Empire, the Old and New Kingdoms of Egypt, and the Mayan civilization (Butzer & Endfield, 2012). The historical collapses are believed to be generally due to a mix of social and environmental causes, though the empirical evidence is often limited due to the long time that has lapsed since these events. -
Curriculum Vita
CURRICULUM VITA Joseph Peggs Kalt Compass Lexecon 200 State Street, 9th Floor Boston, MA 02109 +1 617 520 0201, [email protected] PROFESSIONAL POSITIONS JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY CAMBRIDGE, MA Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy, 1992-2012; emeritus 2012- present Areas of specialization include Industrial Organization, Economics of Antitrust and Regulation, Natural Resource Economics, Public Choice and Political Economy, Economic Development, Microeconomic Theory. Co-Director, The Harvard Project on American Indian Economic Development, 1987- present Faculty Chair, Harvard University Native American Program, 2000-2006 Chair, Economics and Quantitative Methods Cluster, 1995-2000 Professor of Political Economy, 1986-1992 Faculty Chair and Academic Dean for Research, 1992-1994 Chairman, Environment and Natural Resources Program, Center for Science and International Affairs, 1990-1994 Chairman of Degree Programs, 1990-1992 Chairman of Ph.D. Programs, 1989-1990 Assistant Director for Natural Resources, Energy and Environmental Policy Center, 1985- 1990 Co-Director, Harvard Study on the Future of Natural Gas Policy (with Frank C. Schuller), Energy and Environmental Policy Center, 1984-1986 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, HARVARD UNIVERSITY, CAMBRIDGE, MA Associate Professor of Economics, 1983-1986 Assistant Professor of Economics, 1980-1983 Instructor in Economics, 1978-1980 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, TUCSON, AZ Visiting Professor, Rogers College of Law, 2008-2013; Faculty Affiliate, 2013-present Visiting Professor, Eller College of Management, 2005-2010 Visiting Professor, School of Government and Public Policy, 2009-2012 Faculty Chair for Nation Building Programs, Native Nations Institute for Leadership, Management, and Policy, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, 2005-present Visiting Professor, American Indian Studies Department, 2005-2006; Faculty Affiliate, 2013-present Joseph P. -
ATOMIC ENERGY M&& L'&IERGIE ATOMIQUE of CANADA UNITED Y
AECL-6797 ^1^ ATOMIC ENERGY m&& L'&IERGIE ATOMIQUE OF CANADA UNITED Yfi9 DU CANADA LIMlrfE RADIATION EFFECTS ON LIVING SYSTEMS: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF AECL PUBLICATIONS EFFETS DES RAYONNEMENTS SUR LES ORGANISMES VIVANTS: UNE BIBLIOGRAPHIE DES PUBLICATIONS DE L'EACL Norma J. Hawley Whifeshell Nuclear Research Etablissement de Recherches Establishment Nucteaires de Whiteshell Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1LO October 1980 ocfobre ATOMIC ENERGY OF CANADA LIMITED RADIATION EFFECTS ON LIVING SYSTEMS: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF AECL PUBLICATIONS Compiled by Norma J. Hawley Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1L0 1980 October AECL-6797 EFFETS DES RAYONNEMENTS SUR LES ORGANISMES VIVANTS: UNE BIBLIOGRAPHIE DES PUBLICATIONS DE L'EACL par Norma J. Hawley RESUME Cette bibliographie comprend des communications et des comptes- rendus rédigés par des savants de l'Energie Atomique du Canada, Limitée en ce qui a trait aux effets qu'exercent les rayonnements sur les organismes vivants. Elle se divise en trois parties: la Radiobiologie, la Radiobiochimie et la Radiochimie. Il est prévu que cette biblio- graphie sera mise à jour sur une base annuelle. Etablissement de Recherches Nucléaires de Whiteshell Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1L0 1980 octobre AECL-6797 RADIATION EFFECTS ON LIVING SYSTEMS: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF AECL PUBLICATIONS by Norma J. Kawley ABSTRACT This bibliography includes papers and reports by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited scientists concerning radiation effects on living systems. It is divided into three sections: Radiobiology, Radiation Biochemistry and Radiation Chemistry. It is intended that the bibliography will be brought up to date on a yearly basis. Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1L0 1980 October AECL-6797 CONTENTS Page 1. -
Curriculum Vita
CURRICULUM VITA Joseph Peggs Kalt John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 (617) 495-4966 [email protected] PROFESSIONAL POSITIONS JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY CAMBRIDGE, MA Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy, 1992-2012; emeritus 2012- present Areas of specialization include Industrial Organization, Economics of Antitrust and Regulation, Natural Resource Economics, Public Choice and Political Economy, Economic Development, Microeconomic Theory Co-Director, The Harvard Project on American Indian Economic Development, 1987-present Faculty Chair, Harvard University Native American Program, 2000-2006 Chair, Economics and Quantitative Methods Cluster, 1995-2000 Professor of Political Economy, 1986-1992 Faculty Chair and Academic Dean for Research, 1992-1994 Chairman, Environment and Natural Resources Program, Center for Science and International Affairs, 1990-1994 Chairman of Degree Programs, 1990-1992 Chairman of Ph.D. Programs, 1989-1990 Assistant Director for Natural Resources, Energy and Environmental Policy Center, 1985- 1990 Co-Director, Harvard Study on the Future of Natural Gas Policy (with Frank C. Schuller), Energy and Environmental Policy Center, 1984-1986 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, HARVARD UNIVERSITY, CAMBRIDGE, MA Associate Professor of Economics, 1983-1986 Assistant Professor of Economics, 1980-1983 Instructor in Economics, 1978-1980 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, TUCSON, AZ Visiting Professor, Rogers College of Law, 2008-2013; Faculty Affiliate, 2013-present Visiting Professor, Eller College of Management, 2005-2010 Visiting Professor, School of Government and Public Policy, 2009-2012 Faculty Chair for Nation Building Programs, Native Nations Institute for Leadership, Management, and Policy, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, 2005-2015 Visiting Professor, American Indian Studies Department, 2005-2006; Faculty Affiliate, 2013- 2016 Joseph P.