North American
Fiber Broadband Report
FTTH AND 5G Review And Forecast
To 2025
January 2019
January 2021
NORTH AMERICAN FIBER BROADBAND 2021 REPORT FTTH & 5G REVIEW AND FORECAST TO 2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION A. 2021 – The Year U.S. Fully Comes Into Its Own! 7
II. METHODOLOGY AND BACKGROUND A. Deployment Forecast Background And Accuracy 8 B. Forecast Methodology 8
III. CURRENT NORTH AMERICAN FTTH DEPLOYMENT STATUS A. Overview Of North American FTTH Growth 9 U.S. Homes-Marketed vs. Homes-Passed vs. Homes-Connected Non-Redundant Homes-Marketed Fiber Share Of Market Annual Homes-Marketed Canadian Homes-Marketed vs. Homes-Connected FTTH Penetration Of Total Households B. FTTH Progress Versus Previous Wireline Builds 12 C. The Increasing Importance Of Small Players In U.S. FTTH Builds 12
IV. CHARACTERISTICS OF FIBER INTERNET A. Fiber – Fastest (both bandwidth and latency), Symmetrical, and Most Reliable 14 B. Will Another Technology Supersede Fiber? 15 C. Synergy Of Fiber With Wireless Broadband, Intelligent Transportation, And The Internet Of Things (IoT) 15
V. FTTH CONSUMER IMPORTANCE AND IMPACT A. Broadband Need 17 B. Broadband Differentiation 20 C. Fiber Impact 22
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.)
VI. ESTIMATING LOCAL FIBER PROJECT FEASIBILITY ..ADOPTION, MARKET SHARE, AND TAKE- RATES A. Understanding the Measurement Concepts For A Fiber Project 24 Overview Broadband or Internet Adoption Individual Wireline Provider Market Share and Take-Rates B. Estimating Individual Take-Rates 26 Primary Determinates of Take-Rates Simple Model To Roughly Estimate Take-Rates Actual Take-Rate Histories For Comparison The Place Of Local Market Survey Studies Mitigating Deployment Risks And Beating Take-Rate Projections
VII. 5G/ WIRELESS SMALL CELL AND FIBER SUPPORT NEEDS A. Overview Of Next Generation Wireless/ 5G 33 B. Importance Of Densification/ “Small Cells” 33 C. Expected Distance Between Small Cells 33 D. Forecast For Small Cells 34 E. Forecast For Fiber Miles To Support Small Cells 34
VIII. OVERALL ESTIMATE OF FIBER ROUTE MILES IN THE U.S. A. Route Miles By Segment 35 B. Route Miles Compared To Conduit Data 35
IX. REVIEW OF 2021-2025 FTTH FORECAST A. Overview And Drivers Of the Overall Current Forecast 36 B. Deployment History & Five-Year Forecasts Of The Largest NA FTTH Providers 38 U.S. Tier-1 Telcos AT&T Fiber History and Plans Lumen/ CenturyLink Fiber History and Plans Frontier Fiber History and Plans Verizon Fiber History and Plans Ziply Fiber History and Plans Other Significant U. S. Network Operators Altice Communications Fiber History and Plans Google Fiber History and Plans Consolidated Communications Fiber History and Plans Cincinnati Bell Fiber History and Plans Canadian Tier-1 Telcos Bell Canada Fibre History and Plans Telus Fiber History and Plans
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.)
C. Forecast And Addressable Market by Market Segments 46 D. Overview Of U.S. FTTH Forecast 47 E. Overview Of Canadian Forecast 49 F. Overview Of Caribbean Forecast 50 G U.S. Capex Investment Forecast 51 H. Total Fiber Route Miles From Forecast 52
X. DETAILED HISTORY AND FORECAST BY SEGMENTS STATUS A. Homes-Marketed Cumulative Forecast 53 B. Homes-Marketed Annual Forecast 54 C. Homes-Connected Cumulative Forecast 55 D. Homes-Connected Annual Forecast 56 E. U.S. FTTH Investment Forecast 57
XI. APPENDIX A. Index of Graphs 58
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