Windstormii Practical Risk Management Guidance for Marine & Inland Terminals
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Portugal – an Atlantic Extreme Weather Lab
Portugal – an Atlantic extreme weather lab Nuno Moreira ([email protected]) 6th HIGH-LEVEL INDUSTRY-SCIENCE-GOVERNMENT DIALOGUE ON ATLANTIC INTERACTIONS ALL-ATLANTIC SUMMIT ON INNOVATION FOR SUSTAINABLE MARINE DEVELOPMENT AND THE BLUE ECONOMY: FOSTERING ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD 7th October 2020 Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure Azores and mainland Portugal On average: 1 rapid cyclogenesis every 1 or 2 wet seasons ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 Source: Pinto, P. and Belo-Pereira, M., 2020: Damaging Convective and Non-Convective Winds in Southwestern Iberia during Windstorm Xola. Atmosphere, 11(7), 692. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland Maximum wind gusts: Official station 140 km/h Private station 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 203 km/h (in the most affected area) Source: Pinto, P. -
Descripción, Análisis Y Consecuencia Que Tuvo En La Navegación De La Época, El Óptimo Climático En La Edad Media
Autor: Imad El Bali Tutor: Xavier Martínez de Osés DNM, Julio de 2013 DESCRIPCIÓN, ANÁLISIS Y CONSECUENCIA QUE TUVO EN LA NAVEGACIÓN DE LA ÉPOCA, EL ÓPTIMO CLIMÁTICO EN LA EDAD MEDIA. DESCRIPCIÓN, ANÁLISIS Y CONSECUENCIA QUE TUVO EN LA NAVEGACIÓN DE LA ÉPOCA, EL ÓPTIMO CLIMÁTICO EN LA EDAD MEDIA. 1 DESCRIPCIÓN, ANÁLISIS Y CONSECUENCIA QUE TUVO EN LA NAVEGACIÓN DE LA ÉPOCA, EL ÓPTIMO CLIMÁTICO EN LA EDAD MEDIA. Índice 1. Resumen .................................................................................................................... 6 2. Introducción ................................................................................................................ 7 3. Evolución histórica .................................................................................................... 10 4. Climatología .............................................................................................................. 16 4.1. Concepto ........................................................................................................... 16 4.2. Factores ............................................................................................................ 17 4.2.1. Factores astronómicos ............................................................................... 18 4.2.2. Factores geográficos .................................................................................. 22 4.2.3. Factores meteorológicos ............................................................................ 24 4.3. Clasificación ..................................................................................................... -
Program At-A-Glance
Sunday, 29 September 2019 Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Monday, 30 September 2019 Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM) Session 1: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM) Chair: Michael Riemer Time Author(s) Title 8:00–8:40 Spengler 100th Anniversary of the Bergen School of Meteorology Paper Raveh-Rubin 8:40–9:00 Climatology and Dynamics of the Link Between Dry Intrusions and Cold Fronts and Catto Tochimoto 9:00–9:20 Structures of Extratropical Cyclones Developing in Pacific Storm Track and Niino 9:20–9:40 Sinclair and Dacre Poleward Moisture Transport by Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere 9:40–10:00 Discussion Break (10:00–10:30 AM) Session 2: Jet Dynamics and Diagnostics (10:30 AM–12:10 PM) Chair: Victoria Sinclair Time Author(s) Title Breeden 10:30–10:50 Evidence for Nonlinear Processes in Fostering a North Pacific Jet Retraction and Martin Finocchio How the Jet Stream Controls the Downstream Response to Recurving 10:50–11:10 and Doyle Tropical Cyclones: Insights from Idealized Simulations 11:10–11:30 Madsen and Martin Exploring Characteristic Intraseasonal Transitions of the Wintertime Pacific Jet Stream The Role of Subsidence during the Development of North American 11:30–11:50 Winters et al. Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions 11:50–12:10 Discussion Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM) Session 3: Rossby Waves (1:10–3:10 PM) Chair: Annika Oertel Time Author(s) Title Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the Persistence of 1:10–1:30 Röthlisberger et al. -
Idealised Simulations of Stingjet Cyclones
Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones Article Published Version Baker, L. H., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2014) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 96-110. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131 Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/33269/ It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from the work. Published version at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2131/full To link to this article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131 Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society All outputs in CentAUR are protected by Intellectual Property Rights law, including copyright law. Copyright and IPR is retained by the creators or other copyright holders. Terms and conditions for use of this material are defined in the End User Agreement . www.reading.ac.uk/centaur CentAUR Central Archive at the University of Reading Reading's research outputs online Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2013) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones L. H. Baker,* S. L. Gray and P. A. Clark Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK *Correspondence to: L. H. Baker, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. E-mail: [email protected] An idealised modelling study of sting-jet cyclones is presented. Sting jets are descend- ing mesoscale jets that occur in some extratropical cyclones and produce localised regions of strong low-level winds in the frontal fracture region. -
The Role of Serial European Windstorm Clustering for Extreme Seasonal
The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, Joaquim G. Pinto Response to reviewer 1 Dear Reviewer, We thank you for the comments and suggestions that you have made to our manuscript, which have helped improve its quality. Please find below a response to all of your comments and questions raised. Any page and line numbers refer to the initial NHESSD document. The italicised black text are the comments to the manuscript. Our responses are in red with any changes described. An amended version of the manuscript has also been uploaded to highlight the changes. In the marked version, text which has been removed has been struck through, with new additions being in red. This paper presents an analysis of temporal clustering of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the associated windstorm losses over central Europe. The studies shows the seasonally aggregated losses are substantially underestimated if temporal clustering is not taken into consideration. Also the relative contribution of the cyclone resulting in the highest losses per season to the overall seasonal losses is investigated. This contribution is very variable and ranges between 25 to 50%. The study makes use of decadal hindcasts to analyze hundreds of years of present day simulations and statistics based on this large sample are very robust. The quality of the text, the figures and the science is high. The only point that should be scrutinized is the GPD fit to the ERA- interim data. -
Covariance of Storm Hazards in the Atlantic Basin Michael Angus, Gregor C
Covariance of Storm Hazards in the Atlantic Basin Michael Angus, Gregor C. Leckebusch & Ivan Kuhnel Royal Meteorological Society Atmospheric Science Conference 2019 Are Regional Climate Perils Related? Risk of Global Weather Connections, Lloyd’s and Met Office 2016 2 Hypothesis The Atlantic Hurricane Season and European winter windstorm season are not independent from one another A pathway exists between the two through a climate teleconnection 3 Hypothesised pathways Gray 1984 Scaife et al. 2017 4 Hypothesised pathways Fan and Schneider 2012 Hallam et al. 2019 Wild et al. 2015, Dunstone et al. 2016 5 Data Limitations Atlantic Basin Reliable count data for both Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones only in the satellite era (1979-present) Extend by building event climatology from Pearson Correlation coefficient: -0.2 Ensemble Prediction Not significant at the 95th percent confidence level Tropical Cyclone count: IBTrACS best Track data System Extratropical Cyclone count: Cyclone Tracking in ERA-interim 6 Methodology Repurpose a forecast ensemble to treat each ensemble member as a different climate realization National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina Uncertainty August 25th 7 Ensemble Prediction System European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) System 5 EPS (SEAS5) 51 ensemble members over 36 years (1981-2016), total of 1836 model years Initialised 1st of each month, run for 7 months. Selected 1st of August initialisation to cover peak Atlantic Hurricane Season (Aug-Oct) and peak European Windstorm season (Dec-Feb) Horizontal grid spacing TCo319 (~35km, cubic grid) 8 Event Tracking Methodology Find Clusters of 98th percentile Hurricane Floyd Hurricane Sandy windspeed exceedance (Leckebusch et al. 2008) Track storms over time using nearest neighbour approach (WiTRACK; Kruschke 2015) Focus on area of damaging winds, rather than central core pressure 9 Event Tracking Methodology EUMETSAT storm track, from Meteo Sat-9 Air Mass Product. -
Future Changes in European Windstorm Severities and Impacts Jennifer L Catto Alex Little* Matthew Priestley
Future changes in European windstorm severities and impacts Jennifer L Catto Alex Little* Matthew Priestley University of Exeter *Now at JBA Risk. EGU 2021 Session AS1.6 - Fri, 30 Apr, 13:30–15:00 (CEST) Introduction Motivation Research Questions • Future climate changes will be felt through changes in the weather systems. • How will the severity of European windstorms change in the future? • In Europe one of the most important weather systems is extratropical cyclones. • How will the impacts of European • There are currently a lot of uncertainties windstorms change in the future? around how the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones will change over • What will be the role of adaptation to Europe, associated with competing storm severity for decreasing the impacts? dynamical effects, and global climate model uncertainties. • How will future population changes • Another aspect of uncertainty comes from influence the impacts of European the different ways in which intensity is windstorms? defined. • Using models from the latest suite of CMIP, and applying a storm severity index, we investigate future changes in characteristics of windstorms over Europe. December 2020 Alex Little II. POPULATION DENSITY PROJECTIONS Methods and Data December 2020 Alex Little H SSP5 Lagrangian Feature Tracking - Using TRACK (HodgesII. PopulationPOPULATION data DENSITY1980 – 2010 PROJECTIONS 1994,1995) applied to 6-hourly 850hPa relative SSP2 Population data are vorticity (truncated to T42 resolution) from ERA5 taken from the (1980-2010) and 8 CMIP6 models. Socioeconomic data Models and applications ACCESS-CM2 MIROC6 center (SEDAC) at https://sedac.ciesin.co BCC-CSM2-MR MPI-ESM1.2-HR H lumbia.edu/data/set/pSSP5 SSP2 1980 – 2010 EC-Earth3 MPI-ESM1.2-LR opdynamics-1-8th- pop-base-year- KIOST-ESM MRI-ESM2-0 F1 F1 2040 – 2070 2040 – 2070projection-ssp-2000- Present day: Historical simulations for 1980-2010. -
The Role of Serial European Windstorm Clustering for Extreme Seasonal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high-resolution global climate model data Matthew D. K. Priestley1, Helen F. Dacre1, Len C. Shaffrey2, Kevin I. Hodges1,2, and Joaquim G. Pinto3 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK 2NCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK 3Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Correspondence: Matthew D. K. Priestley ([email protected]) Received: 1 June 2018 – Discussion started: 18 June 2018 Revised: 4 October 2018 – Accepted: 26 October 2018 – Published: 12 November 2018 Abstract. Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging nat- the accumulated seasonal loss does not change with return ural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs period, generally ranging between 25 % and 50 %. when many intense cyclones affect one specific geographic Given the realistic dynamical representation of cyclone region in a short period of time which can potentially lead to clustering in HiGEM, and comparable statistics to ERA- very large seasonal losses. Previous studies have shown that Interim, we conclude that our estimation of clustering and its intense cyclones may be more likely to cluster than less in- dependence on the return period will be useful for informing tense cyclones. We revisit this topic using a high-resolution the development of risk models for European windstorms, climate model with the aim to determine how important clus- particularly for longer return periods. -
European Windstorm Insurance Industry “Key Questions” Short Descriptions
European Windstorm Insurance Industry “Key Questions” Short Descriptions CATIN SIGHT 02 EUROPEAN WINDSTORM - INSURANCE INDUSTRY “KEY QUESTIONS” - SHORT DESCRIPTIONS 03 01. Natural variability of Europe Windstorms vs. cycles vs. trends/climate There has been a geographical shift of windstorm activity in recent years whereby France has been hit by four windstorms and the UK has remained relatively quiet. Furthermore, models are starting to include a “short term” view of risk to allow for the fact that windstorm activity is perceived to have decreased in the past 20-25 years. • Are these changes natural variability of part of an ongoing climate-related trend? • Can we develop a better understanding of the natural variability “mechanisms” (e.g. NAO) and their relation to storminess? 02. Storms in the tail: better understanding limits to EUWS footprints: intensity, size, shape There is concern within the catastrophe modelling industry y that the storms that inhabit the tail of the curve (i.e. event with loss return periods of >200 years) have a size and direction unlike the most severe historical storms. • Can we get some more data-points from the “tail” of climate model runs to sit alongside existing catastrophe model output as a “second set of eyes”? 03. Correlation between wind and flood risk There is currently very little understanding (or indeed implementation in catastrophe models) of the correlation between wind and flood in Europe. • Do winters that possess multiple damaging windstorms also contain loss-making flood events? • How well correlated are wind and flood hazards not just in the tail but at shorter return periods? • Do stormier winter mean that the chance of an event with both wind/flood losses is greater owing to antecedent conditions? 04 EUROPEAN WINDSTORM - INSURANCE INDUSTRY “KEY QUESTIONS” - SHORT DESCRIPTIONS 04. -
Dicionarioct.Pdf
McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Earth Science Second Edition McGraw-Hill New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be repro- duced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 0-07-141798-2 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: 0-07-141045-7 All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare, Special Sales, at [email protected] or (212) 904-4069. TERMS OF USE This is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“McGraw- Hill”) and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decom- pile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill’s prior consent. -
A Predictive Relationship Between Early Season North Atlantic Hurricane Activity and the Upcoming Winter North Atlantic Oscillation
Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 18, EGU2016-4308, 2016 EGU General Assembly 2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. A predictive relationship between early season North Atlantic hurricane activity and the upcoming winter North Atlantic Oscillation Jessica Boyd (1) and Mark Saunders (2) (1) JBA Risk Management, Skipton, United Kingdom ([email protected]), (2) Department of Space and Climate Physics, University College London, United Kingdom ([email protected]) The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is linked strongly to European winter climate including windstorms. Predicting the winter NAO is key to making successful seasonal predictions of European winter climate. We observe that in recent decades there are many instances of an inverse relationship between the strength of the North Atlantic hurricane season and the strength of the subsequent European winter windstorm season. Stormy European winter seasons often follow quiet Atlantic hurricane seasons and calm European winters follow active hurricane seasons. We explore the strength and temporal stability of this inverse relationship, consider a facilitating physical mechanism, and briefly discuss the implications of our findings for end users, in particular global reinsurers. We find there is a statistically significant link between North Atlantic hurricane activity and the upcoming winter NAO. The relationship is established by the midway point of the hurricane season in early September. The link is strongest when hurricane activity is in the upper or lower tercile and when summer ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is neutral. The relationship works well going back 40 years to the mid 1970s. The early winter (October-November-December) NAO is predicted best but since the early 1980s the predictive link extends to the main winter (December-January-February) NAO. -
A Critical Review of the Hypothesis of a Medieval Origin for Portolan Charts
A critical review of the hypothesis of a medieval origin for portolan charts i Roelof Nicolai A critical review of the hypothesis of a medieval origin for portolan charts Keywords: portolan, chart, medieval, geodesy, cartography, cartometric analysis, history, science ISBN/EAN: 978-90-76851-33-4 NUR-code: 930 Uitgeverij Educatieve Media, Houten. E-mail: [email protected] Vormgeving en drukwerkrealisatie: Atalanta, Houten Cover design: Sander Nicolai The cover shows part of the Carte Pisane, Bibliothèque nationale de France, Cartes et Plans, Ge B 1118. Copyright © by Roelof Nicolai All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be repro- duced or utilised in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy- ing, recording or by information storage and retrieval system, without the prior permission of the author. ii A critical review of the hypothesis of a medieval origin for portolan charts Een kritische beschouwing van de hypothese van een middeleeuwse oorsprong voor portolaankaarten (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof.dr. G.J. van der Zwaan, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op maandag 3 maart 2014 des middags te 2.30 uur door Roelof Nicolai geboren op 20 november 1953 te Achtkarspelen iii Promotor: Prof. dr. J. P. Hogendijk Co-promotoren: Dr. S. A. Wepster Dr. P. C. J. van der Krogt iv He had bought a large map representing the sea, Without the least vestige of land: And the crew were much pleased when they found it to be A map they could all understand.