The UK Wind Regime - Observational Trends and Extreme Event Analysis and Modelling
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2867–2882, 2014 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/2867/2014/ doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2867-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 P. Stucki1, S. Brönnimann1, O. Martius1,2, C. Welker1, M. Imhof3, N. von Wattenwyl1, and N. Philipp1 1Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland 2Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, Bern, Switzerland 3Interkantonaler Rückversicherungsverband, Bern, Switzerland Correspondence to: P. Stucki ([email protected]) Received: 17 April 2014 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 28 May 2014 Revised: 12 September 2014 – Accepted: 23 September 2014 – Published: 4 November 2014 Abstract. In recent decades, extremely hazardous wind- The damage to buildings and forests from recent, extreme storms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastruc- windstorms, such as Vivian (February 1990) and Lothar (De- ture and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal cember 1999), have been perceived as unprecedented and and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of his- unanticipated (Bründl and Rickli, 2002; Holenstein, 1994; torical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind Schüepp et al., 1994; Brändli, 1996; WSL, 2001). data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. Public perception of a potentially increasing windstorm For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of hazard (Schmith et al., 1998) motivated several studies on windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive the intensity and occurrence frequency of high-impact storms (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact (e.g., Pfister, 1999). -
The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live. -
Portugal – an Atlantic Extreme Weather Lab
Portugal – an Atlantic extreme weather lab Nuno Moreira ([email protected]) 6th HIGH-LEVEL INDUSTRY-SCIENCE-GOVERNMENT DIALOGUE ON ATLANTIC INTERACTIONS ALL-ATLANTIC SUMMIT ON INNOVATION FOR SUSTAINABLE MARINE DEVELOPMENT AND THE BLUE ECONOMY: FOSTERING ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD 7th October 2020 Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure Azores and mainland Portugal On average: 1 rapid cyclogenesis every 1 or 2 wet seasons ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 Source: Pinto, P. and Belo-Pereira, M., 2020: Damaging Convective and Non-Convective Winds in Southwestern Iberia during Windstorm Xola. Atmosphere, 11(7), 692. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland Maximum wind gusts: Official station 140 km/h Private station 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 203 km/h (in the most affected area) Source: Pinto, P. -
Monitoring Black Grouse Tetrao Tetrix in Isère, Northern French Alps: Cofactors, Population Trends and Potential Biases
Animal Biodiversity and Conservation 42.2 (2019) 227 Monitoring black grouse Tetrao tetrix in Isère, northern French Alps: cofactors, population trends and potential biases L. Dumont, E. Lauer, S. Zimmermann, P. Roche, P. Auliac, M. Sarasa Dumont, L., Lauer, E., Zimmermann, S., Roche, P., Auliac, P., Sarasa, M., 2019. Monitoring black grouse Tetrao tetrix in Isère, northern French Alps: cofactors, population trends and potential biases. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation, 42.2: 227–244, Doi: https://doi.org/10.32800/abc.2019.42.0227 Abstract Monitoring black grouse Tetrao tetrix in Isère, northern French Alps: cofactors, population trends and potential biases. Wildlife management benefits from studies that verify or improve the reliability of monitoring protocols. In this study in Isère, France, we tested for potential links between the abundance of black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) in lek–count surveys and cofactors (procedural, geographical and meteorological cofactors) between 1989 and 2016. We also examined the effect of omitting or considering the important cofactors on the long–term population trend that can be inferred from lek–count data. Model selections for data at hand highlighted that the abundance of black grouse was mainly linked to procedural cofactors, such as the number of observers, the time of first observation of a displaying male, the day, and the year of the count. Some additional factors relating to the surface of the census sector, temperature, northing, altitude and wind conditions also appeared depending on the spatial or temporal scale of the analysis. The inclusion of the important cofactors in models modulated the estimates of population trends. The results of the larger dataset highlighted a mean increase of +17 % (+5.3 %; +29 %) of the abundance of black grouse from 1997 to 2001, and a mean increase in population of +47 % (+16 %; +87 %) throughout the study period (1989–2016). -
Program At-A-Glance
Sunday, 29 September 2019 Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Monday, 30 September 2019 Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM) Session 1: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM) Chair: Michael Riemer Time Author(s) Title 8:00–8:40 Spengler 100th Anniversary of the Bergen School of Meteorology Paper Raveh-Rubin 8:40–9:00 Climatology and Dynamics of the Link Between Dry Intrusions and Cold Fronts and Catto Tochimoto 9:00–9:20 Structures of Extratropical Cyclones Developing in Pacific Storm Track and Niino 9:20–9:40 Sinclair and Dacre Poleward Moisture Transport by Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere 9:40–10:00 Discussion Break (10:00–10:30 AM) Session 2: Jet Dynamics and Diagnostics (10:30 AM–12:10 PM) Chair: Victoria Sinclair Time Author(s) Title Breeden 10:30–10:50 Evidence for Nonlinear Processes in Fostering a North Pacific Jet Retraction and Martin Finocchio How the Jet Stream Controls the Downstream Response to Recurving 10:50–11:10 and Doyle Tropical Cyclones: Insights from Idealized Simulations 11:10–11:30 Madsen and Martin Exploring Characteristic Intraseasonal Transitions of the Wintertime Pacific Jet Stream The Role of Subsidence during the Development of North American 11:30–11:50 Winters et al. Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions 11:50–12:10 Discussion Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM) Session 3: Rossby Waves (1:10–3:10 PM) Chair: Annika Oertel Time Author(s) Title Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the Persistence of 1:10–1:30 Röthlisberger et al. -
Return Periods of Losses Associated with European Windstorm Series in a Changing Climate
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate J.G. Pinto (a,b) M.K. Karremann (b) M. Reyers (b) M. Klawa (c) (a) Univ. Reading, UK (b) Univ. Cologne, Germany (c) Deutsche Rück, Germany Contact: [email protected] 1 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Motivation - European Storm Climatology, Top 15 Events Storm Storm Economic Damage Storm Name Fatalities rank Year Actual (USD) 1 1999 Lothar 137 11,350,000,000 2 2007 Kyrill 47 10,000,000,000 1990 season 3 1990 Daria 97 7,000,000,000 1999 season 4 2010 Xynthia 64 6,100,000,000 5 1999 Martin 90 6,000,000,000 6 2009 Klaus 28 6,000,000,000 7 2005 Erwin 18 5,505,000,000 8 1976 Capella 0 5,000,000,000 9 1987 Great Storm of 1987 23 4,000,000,000 10 1990 Vivian 50 3,500,000,000 11 1999 Anatol 27 3,000,000,000 12 2002 Jeanett 38 2,531,000,000 13 1995 Thalia 28 2,310,000,000 Multiple occurrences per year may be critical 14 1990 Wiebke 67 2,260,000,000 for contractual reasons 15 1990 Herta 30 1,960,000,000 Source: Perils 2 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Serial clustering of cyclones over North Atlantic / Europe Physical processes: a) Steering by large-scale patterns b) Secondary cyclogenesis (cyclone families) Jet stream, NAO++ Dispersion Dispersion statistics Ψ <0: serial regularity All P95 Ψ =0: serial randomness Ψ >0: serial clustering Sources: Pinto et al., 2009, Clim. -
Idealised Simulations of Stingjet Cyclones
Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones Article Published Version Baker, L. H., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2014) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 96-110. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131 Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/33269/ It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from the work. Published version at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2131/full To link to this article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131 Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society All outputs in CentAUR are protected by Intellectual Property Rights law, including copyright law. Copyright and IPR is retained by the creators or other copyright holders. Terms and conditions for use of this material are defined in the End User Agreement . www.reading.ac.uk/centaur CentAUR Central Archive at the University of Reading Reading's research outputs online Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2013) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones L. H. Baker,* S. L. Gray and P. A. Clark Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK *Correspondence to: L. H. Baker, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. E-mail: [email protected] An idealised modelling study of sting-jet cyclones is presented. Sting jets are descend- ing mesoscale jets that occur in some extratropical cyclones and produce localised regions of strong low-level winds in the frontal fracture region. -
The Role of Serial European Windstorm Clustering for Extreme Seasonal
The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, Joaquim G. Pinto Response to reviewer 1 Dear Reviewer, We thank you for the comments and suggestions that you have made to our manuscript, which have helped improve its quality. Please find below a response to all of your comments and questions raised. Any page and line numbers refer to the initial NHESSD document. The italicised black text are the comments to the manuscript. Our responses are in red with any changes described. An amended version of the manuscript has also been uploaded to highlight the changes. In the marked version, text which has been removed has been struck through, with new additions being in red. This paper presents an analysis of temporal clustering of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the associated windstorm losses over central Europe. The studies shows the seasonally aggregated losses are substantially underestimated if temporal clustering is not taken into consideration. Also the relative contribution of the cyclone resulting in the highest losses per season to the overall seasonal losses is investigated. This contribution is very variable and ranges between 25 to 50%. The study makes use of decadal hindcasts to analyze hundreds of years of present day simulations and statistics based on this large sample are very robust. The quality of the text, the figures and the science is high. The only point that should be scrutinized is the GPD fit to the ERA- interim data. -
I Don't Think I Need to Remind Anyone Here What a Catastrophic Event The
I don’t think I need to remind anyone here what a catastrophic event The Great Storm of 1987 was. In the build-up to its 30th anniversary last month we were treated to almost round the clock coverage in the media – on its meteorological back story - its violent trajectory across the southern half of the country - and everything from well-publicised and embarrassing forecasting failures - to the exponential loss of trees. I have a very personal reason for writing this book and this evening, I’d like to tell you how I came to write it, and where it all began; what I learned about storms and what this one, in particular, taught us and also how the themes of the title, Landscape, Legacy and Loss - came to define my own unique perspective - in the reframing and retelling of this powerful, collective national memory - 30 years on. 1 But let’s start with the weather… As our lifestyles change - as fewer of us work outdoors or have our livelihoods influenced by the weather – we’re much less affected by it than we used to be. This gradual disconnection from the outside world, means that weather events need to be truly exceptional before they stick in our minds - and that we quickly forget all but the most extreme, the most outrageous. If you were to ask a cross section of the population to give you their most vivid weather memories - each generation would be able to tell you about their own exceptionally hot or wet summer or their coldest, most severe winter. -
Pension News Dec 14.Pdf
Pearl Group Staff Pension Scheme December 2014 PENSION news INSIDE: • Club updates pages 4-6 • Lunch at High Holborn page 7 2 Pension news It is our sad duty to tell you that Lynne Coniff, who edited Pension News for the last 13 years, passed Hello… and welcome to away on 22 November 2014. As Lynne had already prepared this the December 2014 issue of Pension News. latest edition we thought it was It seems like no time at all since I The Editor, Pearl Pension News, fitting that it should be published as introduced you to the Summer issue! First Actuarial LLP, First House, Lynne had intended. Lynne will be I’m glad to report that you’re still Minerva Business Park, Lynch Wood, missed by everyone who had the enjoying stirring up old memories Peterborough PE2 6FT. privilege of working with her and of your time with the Pearl – we’ve our thoughts are with Mike, Lynne’s Wishing you a wonderful Christmas had a couple of replies to the ‘mighty husband, and the rest of her family and a happy New Year. oaks’ article in the last issue, which at this difficult time. Lynne Coniff celebrated the 150th birthday of Pearl, Editor and the 65th birthday of the Pearl 2015 pension pay dates Pension Scheme. We also have two more ‘add the name’ challenges – one The pension pay dates for 2015 in the form of a sketch, which should are as follows: prove interesting! 23 Jan 22 May 25 Sept 25 Feb 25 June 23 Oct As always, please keep your 25 March 24 July 25 Nov contributions coming: 24 April 25 Aug 22 Dec Pension news 3 Stirring up memories Mr Alan F Lankshear Allan G Cook from Halstead, Essex wrote: “I recognised several Following the article ‘From little acorns, mighty names but one in particular prompted memories of my early oaks grow’ in the last issue, we received two days at Pearl and that is of Mr Alan F Lankshear. -
Covariance of Storm Hazards in the Atlantic Basin Michael Angus, Gregor C
Covariance of Storm Hazards in the Atlantic Basin Michael Angus, Gregor C. Leckebusch & Ivan Kuhnel Royal Meteorological Society Atmospheric Science Conference 2019 Are Regional Climate Perils Related? Risk of Global Weather Connections, Lloyd’s and Met Office 2016 2 Hypothesis The Atlantic Hurricane Season and European winter windstorm season are not independent from one another A pathway exists between the two through a climate teleconnection 3 Hypothesised pathways Gray 1984 Scaife et al. 2017 4 Hypothesised pathways Fan and Schneider 2012 Hallam et al. 2019 Wild et al. 2015, Dunstone et al. 2016 5 Data Limitations Atlantic Basin Reliable count data for both Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones only in the satellite era (1979-present) Extend by building event climatology from Pearson Correlation coefficient: -0.2 Ensemble Prediction Not significant at the 95th percent confidence level Tropical Cyclone count: IBTrACS best Track data System Extratropical Cyclone count: Cyclone Tracking in ERA-interim 6 Methodology Repurpose a forecast ensemble to treat each ensemble member as a different climate realization National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Katrina Uncertainty August 25th 7 Ensemble Prediction System European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) System 5 EPS (SEAS5) 51 ensemble members over 36 years (1981-2016), total of 1836 model years Initialised 1st of each month, run for 7 months. Selected 1st of August initialisation to cover peak Atlantic Hurricane Season (Aug-Oct) and peak European Windstorm season (Dec-Feb) Horizontal grid spacing TCo319 (~35km, cubic grid) 8 Event Tracking Methodology Find Clusters of 98th percentile Hurricane Floyd Hurricane Sandy windspeed exceedance (Leckebusch et al. 2008) Track storms over time using nearest neighbour approach (WiTRACK; Kruschke 2015) Focus on area of damaging winds, rather than central core pressure 9 Event Tracking Methodology EUMETSAT storm track, from Meteo Sat-9 Air Mass Product. -
Future Changes in European Windstorm Severities and Impacts Jennifer L Catto Alex Little* Matthew Priestley
Future changes in European windstorm severities and impacts Jennifer L Catto Alex Little* Matthew Priestley University of Exeter *Now at JBA Risk. EGU 2021 Session AS1.6 - Fri, 30 Apr, 13:30–15:00 (CEST) Introduction Motivation Research Questions • Future climate changes will be felt through changes in the weather systems. • How will the severity of European windstorms change in the future? • In Europe one of the most important weather systems is extratropical cyclones. • How will the impacts of European • There are currently a lot of uncertainties windstorms change in the future? around how the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones will change over • What will be the role of adaptation to Europe, associated with competing storm severity for decreasing the impacts? dynamical effects, and global climate model uncertainties. • How will future population changes • Another aspect of uncertainty comes from influence the impacts of European the different ways in which intensity is windstorms? defined. • Using models from the latest suite of CMIP, and applying a storm severity index, we investigate future changes in characteristics of windstorms over Europe. December 2020 Alex Little II. POPULATION DENSITY PROJECTIONS Methods and Data December 2020 Alex Little H SSP5 Lagrangian Feature Tracking - Using TRACK (HodgesII. PopulationPOPULATION data DENSITY1980 – 2010 PROJECTIONS 1994,1995) applied to 6-hourly 850hPa relative SSP2 Population data are vorticity (truncated to T42 resolution) from ERA5 taken from the (1980-2010) and 8 CMIP6 models. Socioeconomic data Models and applications ACCESS-CM2 MIROC6 center (SEDAC) at https://sedac.ciesin.co BCC-CSM2-MR MPI-ESM1.2-HR H lumbia.edu/data/set/pSSP5 SSP2 1980 – 2010 EC-Earth3 MPI-ESM1.2-LR opdynamics-1-8th- pop-base-year- KIOST-ESM MRI-ESM2-0 F1 F1 2040 – 2070 2040 – 2070projection-ssp-2000- Present day: Historical simulations for 1980-2010.