Regional Upper Midwest Region Market Update Rain and snow have stalled harvest this week in many parts of Minnesota and Iowa, where about one- quarter of the corn crop remains in the fields yet. Soybean harvest is nearly complete. The additional moisture will also delay anhydrous ammonia application in some areas. Ammonia demand has been good in Illinois, where harvest is nearly wrapped up. Harvest delays are also complicating shipment of some dry fertilizers, due to transportation and storage challenges. As a result, fewer-than-normal tons have been applied yet.

The past week has seen good levels of urea buying, both prompt and spring tons, spurred partly by rising prices. Requests for UAN price quotes are also starting to pick up. Urea Price outlook: Firm Domestic market: The market has continued to strengthen this week due to stronger international buying levels. The U.S. discount to the global market has been reduced, but not eliminated. Middle East and Chinese values have continued to climb. The Nola market has turned a bit more cautious, after a rapid run-up. The current disparity between Nola and warehouse pricing is an indication that current urea buying is more trader-driven than dealer-driven. Global factors: Egyptian prices have moved up this past week, with several small deals being done. India announced a purchase tender for closure next Monday for an unspecified quantity to be shipped by December 22. That country took only 215,000 tons in its last tender and is expected to need at least two more to amass all the urea it needs for the season ahead.

Ammonium Sulfate Price outlook: Sideways to soft Domestic market: Demand continues to be limited. Exports continue to be the key outlet for domestic producers.

UAN Price outlook: Stable to firm Domestic market: Prices dipped a bit earlier this week but moved higher mid-week, partly due to increasing interest and partly due to continued production problems at the Trinidad plant (see below). Strength in the UAN market appears to be following the urea market, but at a more measured pace. With buying interest picking up this week, it remains a good time to layer in a little more product. Global factors: Egypt’s Abu Qir postponed its tender for 25,000 tons of UAN from this week to next week. The latest news from Trinidad is that startup of the plant there will be delayed at least until next week. For each week the plant is down, one vessel’s worth of production is lost. This is adding to the overall tightness of global UAN supplies.

Ammonia Price outlook: Stable to firm Domestic market: Demand is picking up in the Midwest, as harvest nears completion in many states. Several inches of snow fell in Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin this week, stalling application there, while to the east, more rains slowed prompt ammonia demand in parts of Illinois. Demand is fairly strong in North Dakota. Supplies remain adequate in most parts of the Midwest, although they are likely to tighten in the coming weeks, as demand picks up. Global factors: With ammonia production set to restart at several plants in the Black Sea region, and overall demand slowing, western markets have softened a bit this past week, while pricing in the eastern region remains stable.

Phosphates Price outlook: Soft Domestic market: Fall barge demand continues to be slow and few transactions have taken place this week. Global factors: International demand continues to be limited.

Potash Price outlook: Flat Domestic market: Some product is going to the field but little additional potash buying has taken place and barge demand has been limited. U.S. imports were up 18 percent in August over a year ago, despite flat to soft pricing. Global factors: International demand remains slow, as well.