Quarterly Climate Impacts Midwest Region and Outlook March 2020
Midwest – Significant Events for December 2019–February 2020
Several significant events impacted the Midwest over the winter. Weather impacted travel at the end of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend with heavy snows in northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Upper Michigan. The system also brought heavy rains in Kentucky. Additional storms in Minnesota and nearby states in late December, mid-January, and early February fortified a deep snow cover that lasted throughout the winter. Flooding hit central Illinois in January as the Kaskaskia River breached a levee and closed many highways and roads near Vandalia. Flooding in eastern Kentucky in early February damaged more than 200 homes. Floodgates in Harlan County, Kentucky, were shut and many were trapped at home as the waters rose. Lakes in the upper Midwest remained at elevated levels. Streamflows and soil moisture remained high as well. Warm conditions were persistent, especially in the eastern Midwest. Toledo, Ohio, had just 21 of 91 days below normal vs. 26 days that were more than 10°F above normal. The longest string of below-normal days was just four days while the longest stretch of above-normal days lasted 27 days. Regional – Climate Overview for December 2019–February 2020
Winter Temperature Winter temperatures averaged near normal in the northwest and above normal across Departure from Normal the rest of the region for the season as a whole. Both December and January had above- normal temperatures across the region while February saw a range of temperatures mostly within a couple degrees of normal. The winter ranked as the 10th warmest in the 125-year record for the Midwest. Precipitation was above normal for most of the Midwest and much above normal in the extreme northern areas and also the extreme southeastern areas. An area that covered much of Iowa, northern Missouri, northwestern Illinois, and the southwestern corner of Wisconsin had below-normal precipitation for the season. In the extreme north and extreme southeast, precipitation was 150 to 200 percent of normal for the season. The winter season ranked as the 10th wettest in the 125-year record for the region. Despite the overall wet pattern for the winter, December was fairly dry in Iowa, Missouri, Winter Precipitation and Illinois, and February was very dry in the % of Normal northwestern half of the region. February Soil Moisture Percentile Snowfall was well below normal in the south- eastern third of the region and also downwind of the southern half of Lake Michigan. Due to extremely wet soil moisture conditions from 2019, streamflows continued to be well above normal across the region. In addition to wet soils, snowmelt kept river and lake levels high.
Contact: Doug Kluck ([email protected]) Midwest Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2020 https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports Regional Impacts – December 2019–February 2020
Transportation Agriculture The fall wetness, late maturity, and Some roads and rail tracks along the early snows in the upper Midwest Mississippi River and also the Missouri have led to many cornfields in River have not yet been repaired from Wisconsin and Minnesota with the flooding damage in 2019. Winter 2019 crop still standing in the fields. flooding in the southern Midwest on The upcoming spring harvest of these the Missouri, Mississippi, Wabash, fields will need to be completed and and Ohio rivers also impacted travel. thus will push back field work and Roads, including Route 51, near planting for 2020. Kaskaskia, Illinois, were closed in mid- Standing corn near La Crosse, Wisconsin, January due to levee breach. Fields across the region remain in late winter. Farmers in Minnesota and saturated or near saturated. Even Wisconsin with standing corn will need normal precipitation could lead to time for harvest in addition to planting delays accessing fields, and heavy this spring. Credit Jeff Boyne. rains could severely affect spring field work and planting. Ponds and Rapid winter temperature swings in lakes remain very high. Streamflows Iowa are thought to be responsible for are also above normal, leaving little bud damage on apple trees noted in capacity in the system to absorb early 2020. additional water. Warm conditions in March could Winter wheat in the eastern Midwest increase the risk of damages if there emerged early raising the concern were to be seasonal or later freezes Route 51 flooding in central Illinois due to for damage due to possible freezing into April. levee breach. Credit Trent Ford. conditions in the spring. Regional Outlook – April–June 2020 Midwest Region Partners The outlook for Midwestern Regional Climate temperatures from April Center through June calls for an enhanced probability American Association of State Climatologists of warmer than normal conditions for the National Oceanic and Midwest. Probabilities Atmospheric Administration are highest for Ohio as NWS Climate Prediction Center well as eastern Michigan National Centers for and Kentucky. The Environmental Information precipitation outlook for the same months National Weather Service shows above normal risk Central Region for the Midwest. The North Central area covering most of River Forecast Center Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Ohio River Forecast Center Kentucky has the highest probabilities for above normal precipitation. After a very wet 2019 the National Drought Mitigation Center region still has above normal moisture in the water system (soils, lakes, reservoirs, rivers), thus, an enhanced flood risk. National Integrated Drought Information System The NOAA spring flood outlook for March through May shows a greater than 50% chance of moderate flooding on several major rivers in the USDA Midwest Climate Hub region. A 50% chance of major flooding exists on the Red River of the North, the James River in eastern South Dakota, and the Mississippi River along the Iowa-Illinois border.
Contact: Doug Kluck ([email protected]) Midwest Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook| March 2020 https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports