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Summer Regional United States Diurnal Temperature Range Variability with Soil Moisture Conditions

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Summer Regional United States Diurnal Temperature Range Variability with Soil Moisture Conditions Summer Regional United States Diurnal Temperature Range Variability With Soil Moisture Conditions THESIS Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Robert Wayne Brewer, B.S. Graduate Program in Atmospheric Science The Ohio State University 2015 Master's Examination Committee: Jeffery Rogers Advisor Jay Stanley Hobgood Jialin Lin Copyrighted by Robert Wayne Brewer 2015 Abstract Long-term (1895-2012) soil moisture proxy data are collected and analyzed for its spatial and temporal variability across the United States in conjunction with air temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) variations over the same period. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) summer data were subjected to a Rotated Principle Component Analysis (RPCA) that identified 10 regions (components) having unique patterns of PDSI spatial and temporal variability. Four of those regions (RPC1: Ohio River Valley; RPC2: upper Midwest and eastern Northern Plains; RPC3: southeastern United States; RPC5: Southern Plains) are analyzed further with regard to DTR variations. In conjunction to the summer PDSI time series scores produced by the RPCA, mean DTR, T-max, and T-min (maximum and minimum temperatures) were obtained using GHCNM station data within each of the regions of interest and analyzed for trends. The twelve wettest and driest summers were also identified for each of the 4 regions based on the rank of their PDSI time series scores. The average temperature/DTR for each of these cases (wet or dry) were then compared. Soil moisture in the Ohio River Valley (RPC1) has an increasing trend throughout the 20th-21st centuries. T-max shows a downtrend of 0.5°C while T-min has increased ~ 0.7°C producing a downward trend in DTR throughout the period of record. The upper Midwest and eastern Northern Plains (RPC2) produced similar behavior as the Ohio ii River Valley with more moist soil conditions at the end of the 20th and early 21st century. DTR trends downward in this region due to a very clear upward trend in T-min coupled with a negligible downtrend in T-max. PDSI in the southeastern United States (RPC3) does not have a strong trend but does show a slight increase. T-max produces a trivial, but slight increasing trend while T-min shows a stronger increase in temperatures. This outcome produces a decreasing trend in DTR. Soil moisture in the Southern Plains (RPC5) shows an overall decline in PDSI. T-max produced a long-term increase of ~ 0.6°C. T-min produces an increasing trend slightly larger than that of T-max causing a very small decreasing DTR trend. The long-term DTR trends in each region seemed to be mostly influenced by the larger long-term increasing trends of T-min as compared to the smaller trends in T-max. However, DTR during the most extreme soil moisture summers (wet or dry) seemed to be influenced more by the variability in T-max, as T-min did not fluctuate as much. The 2012 summer drought was used as a case study to evaluate month-to-month DTR variations in the context of variations in precipitation and drought conditions. On a statewide and month-to-month basis, 2012 DTR variations almost always declined (increased) in response to increases (decreases) in rainfall. This variability agrees with that shown in the DTR soil-moisture portion of the analyses. iii Acknowledgements I would like to recognize my family, friends, Dr. Jialin Lin, Dr. Jay Stanley Hobgood, and especially Dr. Jeffery Rogers. Without your continued support and guidance, I would not be where I am today in my academic career. It has truly been an honor and privilege to surround myself with such knowledge, leadership, and humility during my time at The Ohio State University. Thank you. iv Vita May 2007…………………………………....New Lebanon Dixie High School 2011…………………………………………B.S. Atmospheric Science, The Ohio State University 2013 to present……………………………...Graduate Teaching Assistant, Department of Geography, The Ohio State University Fields of Study Major Field: Atmospheric Sciences v Table of Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………ii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………….iv Vita………………………………………………………………………………………...v List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………….vii List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………...viii Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………1 Chapter 2: Literature Review……………………………………………………………...4 Chapter 3: Data and Methodology……………………………………………………….15 Chapter 4: Results………………………………………………………………………..19 Chapter 5: Case Study: The Drought of 2012 ……………………………………………63 Chapter 6: Conclusions…………………………………………………………………..94 References………………………………………………………………………………..99 vi List of Tables Table 5.1. U.S. Drought Conditions: End of August 2012 70 Table 5.2. States Analyzed for the U.S. Drought of 2012 78 Table 5.3. Statewide Averages for May 2012 80 Table 5.4. Statewide Averages for June 2012 82 Table 5.5. Statewide Temperature Changes from May-June 2012 85 Table 5.6. Statewide Averages for July 2012 87 Table 5.7. Statewide Temperature Changes from June-July 2012 89 Table 5.8. Statewide Averages for August 2012 91 Table 5.9. Statewide Temperature Changes from July-August 2012 93 vii List of Figures Figure 4.1. Spatial Centers of PDSI Components 1-5 20 Figure 4.2. PDSI Scores for the Ohio River Valley (RPC1) 22 Figure 4.3. PDSI Scores for the Upper Midwest/eastern Northern Plains (RPC2) 23 Figure 4.4. PDSI Scores for the southeastern United States (RPC3) 24 Figure 4.5. PDSI Scores for the Southern Plains (RPC5) 25 Figure 4.6. RPC1 Regional Averages of T-max 28 Figure 4.7. RPC2 Regional Averages of T-min 30 Figure 4.8. Ohio River Valley Regional Averages of DTR 31 Figure 4.9. RPC2 Regional Averages of T-max 33 Figure 4.10. RPC2 Regional Averages of T-min 35 Figure 4.11. Upper Midwest/eastern Northern Plains Regional Averages of DTR 36 Figure 4.12. RPC3 Regional Averages of T-max 38 Figure 4.13. RPC3 Regional Averages of T-min 40 Figure 4.14. Southeastern United States Regional Averages of DTR 41 Figure 4.15. RPC5 Regional Averages of T-max 43 Figure 4.16. RPC5 Regional Averages of T-min 44 Figure 4.17. Southern Plains Regional Averages of DTR 46 viii List of Figures Figure 4.18. PDSI Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC1 48 Figure 4.19. T-max, T-min, and DTR for Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC1 51 Figure 4.20. PDSI Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC2 52 Figure 4.21. T-max, T-min, and DTR for Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC2 54 Figure 4.22. PDSI Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC3 55 Figure 4.23. T-max, T-min, and DTR for Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC3 57 Figure 4.24. PDSI Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC5 59 Figure 4.25. T-max, T-min, and DTR for Wettest vs Driest Summers: RPC5 61 Figure 5.1. Climate Division PDSI Values: May-August 2012 67 Figure 5.2. U.S. Drought Monitor: May-August 2012 Drought Expansion 68 Figure 5.3. End of May-End of August U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Severity Ranks 69 Figure 5.4. Climate Division PDSI Values: May-August 1956 72 Figure 5.5. Climate Division PDSI Values: 1956 Drought Peak vs 2012 Drought Peak 73 Figure 5.6. Climate Division PDSI Values: May-August 1988 75 Figure 5.7. Climate Division PDSI Values: May-August 1934 76 Figure 5.8. United States Climate Regions 78 ix Chapter 1: Introduction With increasing global temperatures and the melting of both glacial and polar sea ice, climate change has become reality. The ramifications of climate change have been highly scrutinized both politically and scientifically as extensive research from the past and present try to forecast the potential atmospheric and ecological changes that may come as consequence. One of the oldest climate theories is that of the late Milutin Milankovitch who suggested that ice ages are related to planetary gravitational influences on the Earth’s orbit around the sun. Based on these principles, Milankovitch Cycles are 10,000-100,000 year variations occurring amidst ice ages as high latitude solar insolation waxes and wanes (Smith, 1990; House, 1995; Ruddiman, 2006; Huybers and Curry, 2006; Berger, 2012). Bringing this into today’s perspective, according to these cycles, the Earth should be in the midst of an extensive period of high insolation and high temperatures. The distant future however holds a return of declining insolation and cooling. Since the late 20th and early 21st century however, global anthropogenic carbon emissions have increased leading to a more noticeable increase in temperatures than the Milankovitch Cycles suggests, leading to the underlying principles of anthropogenic global warming and climate change (Shackleton, 2009; United States Environmental 1 Protection Agency, 2012; Hansen and Sato, 2012; National Assessment Synthesis Team, 2014). In the current era of technology and data collection, the effects of climate change can be readily monitored and evaluated. With simple datasets containing long-term time series comprised of daily temperatures and precipitation, short and long-term trends become apparent as deviations from normal recur in one direction. Soil moisture is one parameter that plays a role in temperature variability, although the role it plays is not entirely understood. Droughts and extreme precipitation events are expected to occur more frequently with a changing climate (Seager et al., 2009; Gutzler and Robbins, 2010; Mishra et al., 2010; Mallya et al., 2013). These instances of precipitation variation also influence soil moisture and are a common occurrence of nature that can affect millions of people worldwide every year. It can alter water supplies, crop yields, and livestock which are very important cogs to the well-being of life. Research in problems associated with drought and flooding has expanded, especially in the United States. More recently, ongoing drought has impacted the United States from coast to coast with a protracted drought in the western United States this century and a widespread Midwestern drought in 2012 (Mallya et al., 2013; Grigg, 2014).
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