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Balaji Telefilms REDUCE Balaji Telefilms 4QFY2009 Result Update REDUCE Performance Highlights Price Rs44 Fall in Top-line continues, declines 49%: Balaji Telefilms (BTL) posted a decline of 48.8% yoy in Top-line (2nd consecutive quarter of decline) to Target Price Rs35 Rs49.4cr (Rs96.5cr) on a standalone basis largely owing to a dip in commissioned programming hours by 51% yoy to 42.5 hours (3 shows on Investment Period 12 Months Star and 1 on Zee TV were called off during the quarter). Moreover, with higher realisation serials (Kyunki and Kahaani) off-air, average realisation Stock Info per hour dipped by 41% yoy (led by 26% dip in commissioned realisation/hour) to Rs1.3mn (Rs2.2mn) further denting the Top-line. On qoq Sector Media basis, the total programming hours increased by 25% to 304 hours (low base Market Cap (Rs cr) 286 effect due to GEC content strike) and the Average realisations dipped 22% from Rs1.66mn. For full year FY2009, BTL posted a decline of 10.8% in Beta 0.7 consolidated Top-line to Rs337.5cr (Rs378.4cr). The Movie subsidiary (Balaji Motion Pictures) posted revenue of Rs42.6cr (Rs36.5cr) for the year. 52 WK High / Low 222/25 One-off costs drag Operating performance: At the operating front, the Avg Daily Volume 171,791 company registered its first ever loss of Rs17.4cr (Profit of Rs34.8cr) on account of weak Top-line which led to significant jump in Cost of Production Face Value (Rs) 2 (increased 3,227bp yoy partially aided by launch of new shows). Moreover, BSE Sensex 12,020 Other Expenditure increased by a whopping 200% yoy to Rs23cr (Rs7.7cr) largely on account of significant jump in provision for doubtful debts (dues Nifty 3,635 from INX Media) to Rs15.7cr, legal charges against Star and partly due to BSE Code 532382 diminution in long term investments further adding to the woes. NSE Code BALAJITELE Earnings dip into negative territory: In terms of Earnings, the company registered a loss of Rs14.6cr (Profit of Rs23.9cr) in standalone Bottom-line Reuters Code BLTE.BO owing to weak Top-line and sharp rise in Operating costs. Moreover, Bloomberg Code BLJT @IN depreciation charges jumped 268% yoy to Rs12.5cr (Rs3.4cr) denting Bottom-line growth. During the year, BTL depreciated a set, constructed Shareholding Pattern (%) exclusively for a serial which was called off-air, in entirety as it is not likely to be used for any other purpose. Consequently, the depreciation charges this Promoters 50.0 quarter increased by an additional Rs9.53cr. For full year FY2009, BTL posted a whopping decline of 99.5% yoy in consolidated Bottom-line to MF/Banks/Indian FIs 20.1 Rs0.5cr (Rs95.6cr) owing to weak Top-line, substantial losses in Movie business and higher provisions for doubtful debts (dues from INX Media). FII/ NRIs/ OCBs 15.2 Indian Public 14.7 Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr Net Sales 378.4 337.5 217.9 255.6 % chg 18.2 (10.8) (35.4) 17.3 Sensex (%) 24.8 (28.3) (1.7) Net Profit 95.6 0.5 25.5 28.3 Balaji Tele (%) 14.9 (74.3) (73.3) % chg 20.6 (99.5) - 10.9 OPM (%) 35.7 4.8 11.8 13.2 Anand Shah EPS (Rs) 14.7 0.1 3.9 4.3 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334 P/E (x) 3.0 - 11.3 10.1 e-mail: [email protected] P/BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 RoE (%) 25.8 0.2 6.5 6.7 RoCE (%) 32.3 (1.9) 2.2 3.3 EV/Sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 0.4 4.0 1.5 0.9 Source: Company, Angel Research May 13, 2009 1 Balaji Telefilms Media Key Highlights for the quarter Programming Hours increase qoq due to base effect: During the quarter, the commissioned programming hours increased by 22.5% qoq to 193.5 hours from 158 hours largely due to a low base effect (3QFY2009 included the impact of three week long content strike where no fresh programs were telecasted on any GEC). During the quarter, another four serials went off-air viz. Karam Apnaa Apnaa, Kasturi, Kayamath (Star Serials) and Kasamh Se (Zee TV Serial). The sponsored programming hours increased by 27% qoq to 185.5 hours as two new serials, Kankanna (Udaya TV) and Kanmaneeye (Sun TV) started only in mid-3QFY2009. During the quarter, BTL has started three new shows viz. Kitni Mohabbat Hai, Bandini (NDTV Imagine) and Koi Aane Ko Hai (Colors). BTL has currently five shows running on commissioned model (2 on Star, 2 on NDTV Imagine and 1 on Colors) and six shows running on sponsored model). It is also planning to launch a new serial on Zee TV titled Pavitra Rishta from first week of June 2009 which is likely to be aired in the prime time slot of 9pm. Realisations take a toll: In terms of realisation, BTL continued to face downwards pressure owing to discontinuation of its high yielding shows (Kyunki and Kahaani) and addition of new serials (command lower realisations). The commissioned realisation per hour dipped 21% qoq to Rs2.20mn whereas Sponsored realisation per hour dipped 17.9% qoq to Rs0.37mn. Average Realisation dipped by 21.6% qoq to Rs1.3mn (Rs1.66mn). Exhibit 1: Operational Highlights – Programming Hours and Realisations 4QFY2009 4QFY2008 % chg 3QFY2009 % chg Revenues (Rs cr) Commissioned 42.5 85.9 (50.5) 43.9 (3.3) Sponsored 6.9 10.6 (34.7) 6.6 4.3 Total Sales 49.4 96.5 (48.8) 50.6 (2.3) Programming Hours Commissioned 193.5 289.5 (33.2) 158.0 22.5 Sponsored 185.5 145.0 27.9 146.0 27.1 Total Hrs of Programming 379.0 434.5 (12.8) 304.0 24.7 Realisation/Hour (Rs mn) Commissioned 2.20 2.97 (26.0) 2.78 (21.0) Sponsored 0.37 0.73 (49.0) 0.45 (17.9) Avg Realisation 1.30 2.22 (41.3) 1.66 (21.6) Source: Company, Angel Research Movie Business registers a loss of Rs23.3cr: Balaji Motion Pictures Ltd (BMPL), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, released four movies for the year viz. Sarkar Raj, C Kkompany, EMI and Mission Istanbul. BMPL posted revenue of Rs42.6cr (Rs36.5cr) for the year and a Net loss of Rs23.3cr. Profitability of this division was partially hit due to Rs8.85cr write-off which the company took on account of advances made for Movie Projects which it doesn’t expect to pursue further (due to financial non- viability of the projects). Significant Organisational restructuring underway: BTL has made significant management changes during the quarter in order to revamp its business model. Headed by Puneet Kinra (Group CEO – ex PwC), BTL has appointed three new divisional CEOs viz. Nachiket Pandvaidya (CEO – Television), Uday Sodhi (CEO – New Media) and Ajit Thakur (CEO – Movies, replaced Ramesh Sippy) to head their respective verticals. BTL plans to invest in team building for its new vertical – New Media covering Internet and Mobile space. May 13, 2009 2 Balaji Telefilms Media Outlook and Valuation We believe BTL is going through extremely tough times owing to its ongoing tussle with Star, lack of demand for its content and falling realisations. FY2009 (2HFY2009) turned out to be an exceptionally bad year for BTL as all its key shows were called off, it registered one-off losses due to content provided to INX Media (Rs27.8cr including provisions and set costs) and incurred substantial losses in its Movie business (Rs23.3cr). Going ahead, we expect BTL’s financial performance to remain under pressure owing to low visibility of its programming slate (3 out of 5 commissioned shows on-air were launched in 4QFY2009) and dipping realisations. We expect Balaji to report a de-growth in consolidated Topline by 13% CAGR as we expect commissioned revenues (which contribute 80% to the total revenues) to de-grow by 15.9% CAGR over FY2009-11E. In terms of Movie business, we expect Balaji’s subsidiary Balaji Motion Pictures to contribute Rs25cr and Rs30cr in FY2010E and FY2011E respectively to the consolidated Topline. At the operating front, we expect Balaji to witness severe pressure on Margins which are likely to dip in mid-teens owing to deteriorating yields of its shows. Moreover, investments in Movie business and venturing into New Media business (Mobile and Internet) are only likely to drag BTL’s profitability in the near-term. Hence, we have revised our Earnings estimates downwards for FY2010E by 51% to factor in weaker Top-line and higher Margin pressures. However, higher Other income (driven by surplus cash balance of Rs216cr) coupled with lower Tax rate (due to losses in Movie business) should partially aid Net margins. Given significantly poor 4QFY2009 results, limited show pipeline, sharp losses in Movie business and lack of demand for its content, we downgrade the stock from Accumulate to Reduce with a Target Price of Rs35 (Rs52) based on cash on books of Rs216cr (likely to act as downside cushion). Moreover, exodus of Top level Management, ongoing tussle with Star and lack of clarity over dues from INX Media is likely to weigh heavily on the stock. Exhibit 2: Quarterly Financial Update Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY2009 4QFY2008 % chg FY2009 FY2008 % chg Net Sales 49.4 96.5 (48.8) 294.9 329.0 (10.4) Cost of Prod 41.6 50.2 (17.0) 180.7 161.2 12.1 (% of sales) 84.3 52.0 61.3 49.0 Staff cost 2.1 3.9 (45.7) 13.2 13.6 (3.0) (% of sales) 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.1 Other expenditure 23.0 7.7 200.4 61.3 30.2 102.6 (% of sales) 46.6 7.9 20.8 9.2 Total Expenditure 66.8 61.7 8.2 255.2 205.1 24.4 Operating Profit (17.4) 34.8 - 39.8 123.9 (67.9) OPM (35.1) 36.0 13.5 37.7 Interest - - - - Depreciation 12.5 3.4 267.6 23.5 12.7 85.2 Other Income 6.1 4.7 29.2 21.3 17.3 23.1 PBT (excl.
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