BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19

Monitoring Report January 2021

BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19 Monitoring Report January 2021

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2021 REQUIRED CITATION FAO. 2020. Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19: Monitoring Report – January 2021. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb3178en

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Contents

Abbreviations ...... v Key highlights ...... vii

Methodology ...... 1 Background ...... 2 COVID-19 and other risk factors in the country ...... 3 Agricultural production ...... 5 Crop ...... 5 Livestock ...... 6 Supply and markets ...... 7 Food security, livelihoods and coping strategies ...... 9 Conclusion ...... 11 Recommendations ...... 12

References ...... 13

iii Figures

Figure 1. COVID-19 cases in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela from 13 March to 20 October 2020 ...... 3 Figure 2. Rainfall deficit (mm) (average 2000-2018 vs 2020) ...... 6 Figure 3. Sale price of agricultural products compared to before COVID-19 ...... 8 Figure 4. Share of interviewed households that faced shocks ...... 9

iv Abbreviations

COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019

BCV Banco Central de Venezuela (Central Bank of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela)

ENCOVI Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (Survey of Living Conditions)

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

GDP Gross domestic product

JMMI Joint Market Monitoring Initiative

OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

WFP World Food Programme

v

Key highlights

> The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak was first detected in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela in March 2020. In the context of an already destabilized economy, the COVID-19 preventive measures, although necessary to reduce the contagion rate, have affected the Venezuelan’s agri-food systems in multiple ways.

> The national agricultural production prospects for 2020 are unfavourable due to the considerable reduction of the planted areas and the low yields. This is due, among other factors, to the shortage of agricultural inputs and fuel, the presence of some pests and the decrease in rainfall in the period from February to April.

> COVID-19 prevention and containment measures have likely affected the supply and demand of food products, together with other factors considered chronic, such as the lack or high cost of transportation, fuel shortages and inflation. Loss of rural income is the likely result, in particular from a decrease in the sale of agricultural products.

> The presence of constraints to production and marketing was triangulated by non-representative sources. Among the most frequently mentioned there are the reduced access to the market due to movement restrictions or markets closure, lower-than-usual demand and decreased presence of output buyers.

> The households most likely to be affected are those involved in subsistence agriculture and especially those most isolated and far from markets.

vii

Methodology

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is implementing a project (July 2020–July 2021) to contribute to data collection and analysis linked to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to inform evidence-based programming in selected countries.1

The objective is to assess the effects of COVID-19 in the agri-food system, which includes livestock and fishing, food supply, livelihoods and food security of the rural population at national level. Information is collected from primary sources of the production process: producer households, traders or marketers, inputs suppliers, extension officers and key informants.

The first round of data collection has been completed, with rounds II and III foreseen in 2021. Telephone surveys were conducted between August and September 2020 among households and key informants. The focus of this collection were the states of Falcón, Lara, Mérida, Miranda, Portuguesa and Trujillo for the households and the states of Aragua, Guárico, Lara, Mérida, Monagas, Portuguesa and Trujillo for the key informants. The sample was designed to include 1 088 households and 50 key informants. Although all of the targeted key informants responded, the response rate among the selected households was very low (191 or 17.5 percent). The results obtained from households were therefore considered indicative and cannot be generalized to the whole population of the six states.

For the compilation of this Monitoring Report, secondary information was extensively used, including from state institutions and the United Nations system. Additional individual producers, farmers’ associations and agriculture committees of the community councils were also informally approached. Primary data was used mainly for triangulation, i.e., comparing the information from different sources to capture their convergence. In this sense, the robustness of the findings of this report does not come from the analysis of the primary data collected – as would be the case where representative samples were available – but rather from comparing the available data with other sources, triangulating and evaluating to reach indicative conclusions.

1 The FAO project is currently being implemented in the following countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Haiti, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, the Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palestine, the Philippines, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, the Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Togo, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), Yemen and Zimbabwe.

1 Background

The greatest risks to the Venezuelan households and their agricultural activities come from the economic contraction. They are due, among other factors, to the collapse of international oil prices and the adverse effects of the COVID-19 outbreak at the national level.

Low oil prices limit the profitability of extraction, indirectly affecting the non-oil economy through shortages of fuel, public services, goods and revitalized hyperinflation. The Economist Intelligence Unit (2020) estimates a real gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 36.2 percent in 2019, and a further fall of 25.4 percent in 2020. The aggregate GDP contraction since 2013 is estimated at around 80 percent. Data from the Banco Central de Venezuela (Central Bank of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela [BCV]) indicate that accumulated inflation, in the January to September 2020 period, is 844 percent, maintaining sustained inflation for 34 consecutive months (BCV, 2020).

According to the National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística), the poverty rate, evaluated with the basic needs approach, was 17 percent in 2018 (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, 2019). More recent independent and non-official studies, such as the 2019–2020 Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (Survey of Living Conditions [ENCOVI]) by UCAB and the World Vision Rapid Survey for Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) (World Vision, 2020), indicate that: • 96.2 percent of Venezuelan households have an income below the poverty line; • 97 percent of households show some sign of food insecurity; • global acute malnutrition in children under 5 years increased to 30 percent; • infant mortality reached 26 deaths per thousand births2; • increase in mortality and decrease in life expectancy; and • 44 percent of the population over 15 years of age is economically inactive, with important differences between men and women.

This outlines the context in which the COVID-19 outbreak met the Venezuelan population.

2 In contrast to INA (2019) findings of 13 deaths per thousand.

2 COVID-19 and other risk factors in the country

The coronavirus was first detected on 13 March 2020 in Caracas. Contagion rapidly increased to peak in August (Figure 1). By October 2020, the total number of cases reached 91 000.

Figure 1. COVID-19 cases in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela from 13 March to 20 October 2020

3030,000 000

2525,000 000

2020,000 000

1515,000 000

1010,000 000

55,000 000

0 March April Mau June July August September October

Source: Ministry of the People’s Power for Health, 2020

The curve has now flattened due, among other factors, to the measures taken by the Government, in a context of already limited population mobility due to the lack of fuel.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Government has implemented a series of public health measures aimed at reducing the contagion and the number of cases, namely:

• Declaration of the state of alert and a mandatory 30-day quarantine (17 March 2020, later extended). In this period, mobility was almost nil. Since 1 June, these measures were relaxed, while maintaining the state of alert and introducing different phases (partial and monitored3) and the exemption of agri-food activities from the regulations. • Establishment of temporary accommodation spaces in the border states, for the returnees to fulfil a two-week quarantine period, before being transferred.

3 Seven working days, plus seven days of quarantine.

3 • Readjustment of the flexibility scheme since 19 October, relaxing the containment regulations in 21 economic sectors, while maintaining mandatory social distancing, use of masks and hygiene. The aforementioned measures were established in a context of a deteriorating food security situation that preceded the pandemic. The food security assessment conducted between July and September 2019 by the World Food Programme (WFP) through household interviews reported the prevalence of severely food insecure households4 was then 7.9 percent (2.3 million) and 24.4 percent (7 million) in moderate food insecurity – the states with the highest prevalence of food insecurity (> 10.9 percent) were Falcón, Amazonas, Delta Amacuro and Zulia (WFP, 2020).

The analysis of the Food Consumption Score (12.3 percent borderline and 5.5 percent poor) highlights that, although most households had an adequate energy intake, at the time of the interviews, the lack of food diversity is a concern, particularly the lack of animal protein and micronutrient-rich products (WFP, 2020). Additionally, more than a third of the population have experienced a total loss of income (WFP, 2020).

It is important to highlight that part of the country's food-producing states, such as Zulia, Táchira, Mérida, have the status of border states where COVID-19 cases spiked due to the influx of migrant Venezuelans. This had a notable impact on the performance of food markets and trade, and the realization of farm work.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that during the seven months that have elapsed since the declaration of the state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic (March–October), basic services have deteriorated considerably (El Impulso, 2020).

As part of the response, the Venezuelan Government has emphasized the development of crops and food processing plants, including those linked to urban agriculture, to guarantee self-production and consumption of food (Nicolas Maduro, communication on Twitter account @NicolasMaduro, 16 October 2020).

The agriculture programme, Agro-Venezuela Mission (Misión Agro Venezuela), was relaunched in July with the purpose of strengthening the agricultural and agro-industrial development of the country.

Also, the Government is evaluating strategies to strengthen the food distribution system, relying on Local Supply and Production Committees (Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción). The Government’s strategy is to channel and improve the quality, quantity and frequency of food distribution through this mechanism.

4 According to the CARI algorithm. For more information: www.wfp.org/publications/consolidated-approach-reporting-indicators-food-security-cari- guidelines#:~:text=The%20Consolidated%20Approach%20to%20Reporting,of%20four%20food%20security% 20categories.

4 Agricultural production

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has about 21 million ha of agricultural land, of which 3.3 of cropland, such as corn, soybeans and beans, among others (FAO, 2020a; Peláez and Betzari, 2017). Crop The main food product, maize, is grown from October/November (sowing) to April/May (harvest), with a second season in some areas between May/June and October/November. Rice, potatoes and sorghum are also cultivated in the main season. These crops are farmed in very diverse farming systems from the Amazon to the coast. In the Amazon, the main farming system and livelihoods are based on forest resources. Subsistence agriculture is practiced with occasional commercial plantations and extensive cattle ranching, especially in marginal areas. In the centre of the country the dominant system is mainly wooded savanna with more intensive (and commercially more important) crops. In the mixed altitude system, in the northeast, cash crops are farmed in the most favourable areas (valleys with more infrastructure) and subsistence agriculture (maize and pigs) in altitude. The coastal zone has large plantations, typically export-oriented, and mixed subsistence agriculture (FAO, 2020b).

Atypical constraints for production were observed by households and key informants. Although these results are not statistically significant, two out of three surveyed households reported: • greater difficulties, mainly drought, crop pests or diseases; • difficulties in accessing fertilizers and pesticides; and • less frequently, difficulties related to access to seed and the lack of perspective on the possibility of selling the products.

Difficulties in the supply of inputs and seeds (especially in Portuguesa) are the main problem evidenced during the key informants’ interviews, although the presence of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera Frugiperda) has also been an important limitation.

At national level, the 2020 cereal harvest, rice and maize, is almost complete but the production outlook is unfavourable due to the considerable reduction of farmed area and low expected yields (FAO, 2020c). Shortages of agricultural inputs and fuel significantly affected yields, but these factors have been common problems in recent years, and the additional impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and its containment on households’ production are difficult to determine.

In March, when these measures were introduced, the main agricultural season had typically started, and crops should have been in vegetative stage. Additionally to the constraints highlighted above, the reduction in rainfall in the period from February to April in the key producing area of the centre-west also negatively impacted crop production (FAO, 2020c). Figure 2 shows the rainfall deficits, for each of the states selected for this study, comparing the 2020 precipitation estimates with the average for

5 the period 2000–2018. Rainfall deficits in March, April and May 2020 were particularly high in Mérida, Portuguesa and Trujillo.

Figure 2. Rainfall deficit (mm) (average 2000-2018 vs 2020)

120

100

80

60 Falcon Portuguesa 40 Merida

mm deficit Lara 20 Trujillo

0 E F M A M J J A S -20

-40

Source: CHIRPS data compilation

These delays in the onset of rains typically imply replanting and/or delayed planting, potentially until the COVID-19 containment measures were already being applied. So, it is possible that for a proportion of households’ lack of access to seeds and fertilizer and mobility constraints could be attributed to the COVID-19 containment measures.

Livestock Animal production is of utmost importance, since it provides for an important source of protein. The most common animal species are cattle and swine. Cattle and swine producing areas are located near the highest consumption and population’s density areas.

Sheep and goat farming is not very relevant, but it represents an important source of protein in the less rainy areas of the Lara and Falcón states (dry region) and upper parts of the Andes. Poultry farming has acquired great development in the country. Its production is concentrated in the states of Aragua and Zulia. These conclusions are consistent with the responses of households, from a geographical point of view, with a higher prevalence of small herds, between 5 and 15 heads.

From the households’ survey, no atypical problem attributable to COVID-19 is evident, although the supply of veterinary products (especially in Guárico and Trujillo) was indicated by key informants as the main problem in the production process.

6 Supply and markets

The Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) is a pilot project resulting of the joint effort of the Monetary Transfers Group of Venezuela, the Food Security Cluster, the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Cluster and the Housing, Energy and Household Cluster. The August 2020 Bulletin reported that the proportion of food and non-food merchants who faced or expect to face difficulties was 48 percent the month prior to data collection and 79 percent the following month. Specifically, the major difficulties reported were the high price of gasoline (90 percent the previous month and 73 percent the following), the shortage of fuel (79 percent the previous month and 87 percent the following), the high price of transport (74 percent the previous month and 53 percent the following), and that suppliers have stopped their production due to COVID-19 (26 percent the previous month and 47 percent the following). Sixteen percent of the interviews reported that the challenges faced to restock were exclusively due to COVID-19 (JMMI, 2020). In general, it seems more likely that the pandemic affected farmers’ income, rather than agricultural production. Almost all key informants have reported severe restrictions on the transport of products, especially in Guárico, Mérida, Monagas and Portuguesa. The key informants interviewed highlighted movement restrictions and the partial functioning of the markets as major obstacles (mainly in Portuguesa).

It is worth noting the significant proportion of interviewed households (45 percent) claimed to face difficulties in marketing. The biggest restrictions include the cost of transport that is higher than usual, restricted access to the market (movement restrictions or market closure), lower-than-usual demand and that the traders do not visit the zones to buy the production. These conclusions are consistent with the JMMI (2020) results: • 71 percent of the merchants surveyed claimed to have restricted hours of operation; • 68 percent reported lower daily sales, 61 percent a reduction in overall demand; and • 57 percent an increase in prices from suppliers.

This information, together with the erosion of purchasing power (the minimum monthly wage only covers for 5 percent of the basic food basket [Global Report on Food Crisis, 2020]), suggests a reduction in demand, even considering the inflationary trend: more than 30 percent of the households interviewed affirmed that the sale price of the products is higher than the past year (Figure 3).

7 Figure 3. Sale price of agricultural products compared to before COVID-19

Much lower than normal Don't know, 1.6 [>20% lower], 1.0

Lower than normal Much higher than [0-20% lower], 6.3 normal [> 20% higher], 20.9

The same or about the same, 12.0

Higher than normal [0-20% higher], 9.9

Source: FAO 2020; FAO assessment results

The available evidence suggests that in general agricultural sales were lower than normal, although with higher prices. But it is difficult to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the functioning of markets. Other important factors are weighted, including, as reported by the JMMI (2020) respondents, the exchange rate (89 percent), fuel shortages (86 percent) and the effect of mandatory isolation imposed by the COVID-19 preventive measures (61 percent). It seems that movement and marketing restrictions have likely affected the demand and supply of food products, but within the framework of other negative factors considered chronic, such as the lack of transportation, fuel and inflation.

8 Food security, livelihoods and coping strategies

Before the pandemic, most Venezuelan households were not able to meet their needs due to the lack of employment opportunities (World Vision, 2020). In this context, it is likely that COVID-19 and its containment measures affected income – as seen in the previous sections, agricultural sales were reduced in volume. This is confirmed by the responses of the surveyed households. Revenues from the most important income sources have decreased in the three months preceding the survey, compared to last year. The majority of rural households interviewed in the primary data collection process faced one or multiple atypical shocks in 2020. Restriction measures due to the pandemic stand out for their frequencies (Figure 4) in all states, but losses of income and increases in prices could be not totally or necessarily related to COVID-19.

Figure 4. Share of interviewed households that faced shocks

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source: FAO 2020; FAO assessment results

Coping strategies are not, according to the key informants of the study, atypical for the period. This is supported by the households’ survey, indicating using savings, additional debts, selling part of productive assets and consuming less animal protein, among others, as frequent coping mechanisms. Key informants, however, also mentioned some coping mechanisms that are atypical, such as decapitalization and selling livestock.

9 The discussion on the problems of production, marketing, loss of income, mobility restrictions, decapitalization of a part of the population and food shortages at national level (as the dwindling foreign exchange earning limits imports, [Global Report on Food Crisis, 2020]) suggests that rural households have gaps in food consumption, with COVID-19 having compounded the impact of other negative factors. The most vulnerable households are subsistence farmers and especially those that are most isolated and far from markets.

Responses from the households’ survey5 are consistent with the conclusions provided above. The survey asked a series of questions aimed at capturing respondents’ perceptions on food-related coping mechanisms. Each of these questions were followed by a related question: “Was it specifically linked to COVID-19?” The pattern of responses shows that coping strategies affecting food consumption have been largely adopted. For example, more than 70 percent of respondents reported not having enough food or limiting the diversity of their diet, and more than 50 percent reported consuming less healthy and nutritious food. The share of interviewed households having faced more serious coping mechanisms remains high, even when compared with the indicators used by WFP (WFP, 2020): 32 percent exhausted food stocks, 24 percent stayed hungry without eating and 11 percent spent a whole day with no food. In addition, in about half to two thirds of respondents’ perceptions, COVID-19 was specifically linked to all the coping strategies.

5 Food security outcomes were estimated with questions assessing the experience of food insecurity at households’ level (quantity, quality and frequency of food consumption) with a recall period of 30 days.

10 Conclusion

By combining information from secondary sources, available primary data from the FAO survey, as well as informal consultations with community councils, producer associations and other producers not included in the original sample, a consistent, if indicative, picture of the impact of COVID-19 on food security of rural households emerges. It seems clear that COVID-19 related restrictions have been a compounding factor worsening an already precarious food security situation for rural Venezuelans (a total population of 4 million).

In a context of high inflation, shortage of fuel and transportation, unemployment, a contraction of GDP and the imposition of international sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the living conditions of Venezuelan households. The restriction measures likely exacerbated the existing problems of transportation, markets supply and labour mobility, although no direct evidence is found. Agricultural production was affected by indirect causes such as the lack of seed and other inputs, which could be linked to the existing economic emergency and to a lesser extent attributed to the restrictions imposed by COVID-19. Also, delays in the rainy season and pest outbreaks have affected planting and harvesting processes. The production outlook is in fact unfavourable due to the considerable reduction in planting and low expected yields. Livestock production is not particularly affected by COVID-19, but by the same drivers, such as droughts and the lack of fuel, a fundamental element for the irrigation of pastures and water distribution in troughs.

In general, the pandemic has perhaps marginally affected agricultural production so far, but it has more likely affected farmers’ income (limiting the marketing of products) and consumers’ access to food (due to the rise in prices, implying a contraction in demand). For the rural population, these effects translate into income losses in the primary sector.

The available information converges in highlighting the problems of production, marketing, loss of income, mobility restrictions, decapitalization of a part of the population, which suggests food consumption gaps, especially among subsistence farmers and those most isolated and far from markets.

11 Recommendations While no cause-effect relationship has been established in this study, this conclusion suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has added several challenges, despite the measures taken by the Government to protect the rural productive sector. Even from the analysis of secondary sources, some recommendations can be drawn.

• Strengthen public policies according to the legal framework (laws and the National Constitution) related to agriculture and food production. • In addressing the possible contraction in demand, support technical training, job placement and self-employment programmes. • Assist extension officers to be deployed in the field by guaranteeing their permits and logistics, but also provide for the safety and personal protection equipment of field staff. • Design/implement food assistance to targeted population, coupled with nutritional education. • Support urban agriculture as a mean to fight food insecurity, putting production closer to the areas of greatest consumption. • Strengthen social protection measures, including policies that target smallholder production and its contribution to different food supply programmes. • Establish supply chain coordination table at local level, as a way to join public and private actors, exchange information regarding possible lack of supply (seeds, fertilizer, credit and other inputs), coordinate marketing activities and facilitate public-private partnerships.

12 References

Economy Intelligence Unit. 2020. Economic Forecasts 2020–2022. London.

El Impulso. 2020. OCHA: Escasez de gasolina ha impactado en la respuesta humanitaria contra la Covid-19 [online]. Caracas. [Cited 16 October 2020]. https://www.elimpulso.com/2020/10/16/ocha-escasez-de-gasolina-ha-impactado-en-la- respuesta-humanitaria-contra-la-covid-19/

Universidad Católica Andres Bello. UCAB. 2020. Encuesta Nacional sobre las Condiciones de Vida (ENCOVI), ciclo noviembre 2019 – marzo 2020 [online] Caracas. [Cited October 2020]. www.proyectoencovi.com/encovi-2019

FAO. 2020a. FAOSTAT – Definitions and standards. In: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [online]. Rome. [Cited October 2020]. www.fao.org/faostat/en/#definitions

FAO. 2020b. Farming systems and poverty: Latin America and Caribbean. In: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [online]. Rome. [Cited October 2020]. www.fao.org/farmingsystems/maps_LAC_en.htm

FAO. 2020c. GIEWS – Global Information and Early Warning System: Country Briefs – Venezuela. In: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [online]. Rome. [Cited 15 June 2020]. www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=VEN

Food Security Information Network (FSIN). 2020. Global Report on Food Crisis, 2020. Rome. www.fsinplatform.org/report/global-report-food-crises-2020/

Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (INE). 2019. Proyecciones Población 2000–2050 [online]. Caracas. [Cited October 2020]. www.ine.gov.ve

Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI). 2020, Hoja Informativa Venezuela. Geneva.

Peláez C, Betzari. 2017. Venezuela, un país con millones de hectáreas agrícolas cultivables [online]. Mexico. [Cited October 2020]. www.sofoscorp.com/tag/ciclo-corto/

WFP. 2020. WFP Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA) – Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) | Data collected between July and September 2019. Panama.

World Vision. 2020. Evaluación Rápida para Venezuela. Caracas. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Rapid 20Assessment20Report_EspanCC83ol_0.pdf

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Contact FAO Representation in Venezuela [email protected] | www.fao.org/venezuela Caracas, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

FAO Subregional Office for Latin America and Caribbean [email protected] | www.fao.org/americas/oficina-regional Santiago, Chile

Markets and Trade Division – Economic and Social Development [email protected] | www.fao.org/giews Rome, Italy

Office of Emergencies and Resilience [email protected] | www.fao.org/emergencies Rome, Italy

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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