Ethiopia: Security Assessment
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June 27, 2007 ETHIOPIA: SECURITY ASSESSMENT Country The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia is the oldest independent country in Africa. Except for a brief period from 1936 to 1941, when it was occupied by fascist Italy, Ethiopia was never colonized by a foreign power. It is a landlocked country in East Africa two times the size of France and bordered by Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea, Kenya and Djibouti. It has nine regions that are divided by ethnicity and two city administrations, Dire Dawa and the capital city Addis Ababa. Tensions among the various ethnic groups in Ethiopia have been high, particularly among the three largest groups -- the Oromo, Amhara and Tigray. Ethiopia also is one of the least developed countries in the world, according to the 2006 U.N. Human Development Report, which ranks Ethiopia 170 out of a possible 177. The country has a population of approximately 72 million, with poverty affecting about 81 percent of the people. The U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia is located in Addis Ababa on Entoto Avenue (P.O. Box 1014). The daytime telephone number is (251) (11) 124-2424, which can be called from 8 a.m. to 10:45 a.m. and from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. Monday through Thursday and from 8 a.m. to 12 p.m. on Friday. Regional Security Officer Michael Bishop can be reached during the day at (251) (91) 120-7828. After hours, American citizens should call the embassy Marine security guard post at (251) (11) 124-2400 or (251) (11) 517-4313. Cell phone coverage outside of the capital, particularly in rural areas of Ethiopia, is unreliable. SNNPR The Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR) is one of nine ethnic regions in Ethiopia. It shares a border with Kenya to the south, the Ilemi Triangle (an area claimed by Sudan, Kenya and Ethiopia) to the southwest, Sudan to the west and two other Ethiopian regions to the north. The SNNPR capital is Awasa. Other major cities and towns in the region include Arba Minch, Bonga, Chencha, Dila, Irgalem, Mizan Teferi, Sodo, Wendo and Worabe. The estimated population of the SNNPR is approximately 15 million. The most dangerous areas in the SNNPR are those along the Kenya and Sudan borders because of the increased criminal, militant and insurgent activity that occurs near most international borders on Africa. © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 1 Terrorism There are several ethnic-based militant groups operating in Ethiopia, including the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Oromo Liberation Front and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. These groups are primarily engaged in separatist or independence movements against the Ethiopian government and do not present a significant threat to Western interests. However, because Ethiopia has a limited counterterrorism capability, a transnational terrorist organization such as al Qaeda would be capable of attacking symbols of Western culture in the country such as embassies and hotels. There is actually little anti-Western or anti-American sentiment in Ethiopia aside from that expressed by Muslims and ethnic Somalis, who view Ethiopia -- which is engaged in ongoing military operations in Somalia -- as a Western proxy in the region. Many of the terrorist incidents that do occur in Ethiopia stem from conflict between militant groups and government forces. The most recent terrorist attacks in Ethiopia occurred in May and September 2006 in Jijiga, the capital of the Somali region in Eastern Ethiopia. The targets primarily were local businesses, including a bar, a hotel and several cafes. Three bombs also exploded in Addis Ababa in March at a restaurant, hotel and shop in the Mercato open-air market, causing significant damage and injuring several people. Travelers to Ethiopia should be mindful of the places that have been targeted by terrorists. These include commercial and public areas frequented by foreigners such as hotels, restaurants, bars, clubs, markets and other tourist attractions. Airports and other transportation hubs also are potential targets (in September 2003, unidentified militants attacked a train heading from Djibouti to Dire Dawa). Overall, terrorist attacks that have occurred in Ethiopia have been relatively small in scale and not particularly deadly. The danger of terrorism in Ethiopia is medium.1 Crime Petty crime such as pickpocketing and purse-snatching is relatively common in Ethiopia, particularly in crowded urban areas, and foreigners are often targeted. Crime in the cities is rarely violent, and when it is it usually involves physical force (knives and fists) rather than firearms. Travelers should limit the amount of cash they carry and leave valuables like passports, jewelry and airline tickets in a secure place such as a hotel safe. Wallets and keys should be carried in front, not back, pockets, and purses should be worn across the chest, not over the shoulder. Many reported burglaries in Ethiopia have been of closed businesses or vacant residences, © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 2 and burglars can often be deterred by the possibility of confrontation and resistance. Travelers in Ethiopia should be aware of their surroundings at all times, especially in the rural areas and particularly on the roadways, where highway banditry and armed carjackings have been known to occur. Outside of the urban areas, it is best to travel by road only during the day and to travel in convoys whenever possible. If confronted by criminals, the best course of action is to give them what they want rather than risk escalating the situation into an act of violence. One of the most recent incidents involving foreigners occurred March 1, 2007, when a group of Western visitors were kidnapped by bandits in Ethiopia’s Afar region, which is in the northeastern part of the country. The Westerners were released unharmed, but the kidnappers said they would abduct any other foreigners who entered their territory. NGO workers have been specifically targeted for robbery and kidnapping throughout Ethiopia, usually in the Somali region and the northern part of Afar. The SNNPR is relatively quiet in terms of criminal activity, although crime along the international borders is still a problem. Criminals have the ability to rob or kidnap a victim on one side of the border and slip into another country without suffering any consequences. Police in Addis Ababa are generally honest and cooperative when dealing with travelers; however, they lack the necessary training and resources to be fully effective in handling complicated matters. American citizens needing police assistance to resolve serious issues are advised to contact the U.S. Embassy. Other emergency services in Ethiopia are inadequate. Response times are slow, and first- responders tend to be poorly trained and ill-equipped. Outside the capital, police and emergency services are virtually nonexistent. Ethiopia serves as a transit point for heroin coming in from Southwest and Southeast Asia that is then sent to Europe and North America as well as cocaine meant for markets in southern Africa. Qat, a flowering plant native to East Africa, contains an amphetamine-like stimulant and is cultivated legally in Ethiopia for local use and regional export, mainly to Djibouti and Somalia. It is highly unlikely that foreign travelers will become involved with any drug- or organized-crime-related violence in Ethiopia if they are not participating in the activity since organized criminal elements do not target foreigners. Due to the risk of violent crime along rural roads in Ethiopia, the threat of crime in the country is high.2 © 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 3 War and Insurgency Since December 2006, Ethiopian troops have been involved in fighting the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia, and although the fighting has been limited to Somalia, there is always the possibility of militant attacks directed against Ethiopia. Travelers should avoid the areas bordering Somalia as well as Ethiopia’s border with Kenya and Sudan, where armed groups are common and the threat of banditry and kidnapping is high. Travel to the border region between Ethiopia and Eritrea also is not advised because of the volatile security situation and high tensions that stem from an unresolved border dispute between the two countries. It is important for travelers going to any border region or remote area of Ethiopia to exercise extreme caution since Ethiopian security forces do not have a significant presence in those areas. One example of the violence that occurs in the border regions is a major attack April 24 in the Ogaden area of the Somali region in eastern Ethiopia. Gunmen from the rebel ONLF attacked a Chinese-owned oil facility in Jijiga, killing 74 people, including nine Chinese nationals, and kidnapping several others. Numerous locals also were wounded in the attack. The ONLF has been clashing with government forces since the mid-1990s. Because of the high number of rebel groups and border conflicts in Ethiopia, the threat of war and insurgency is high.3 Political Instability The last national elections in Ethiopia, on May 15, 2005, returned the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front party to power and left considerable political tension in their wake. There was strong public support for the opposition parties during the elections, and following their defeat, opposition leaders rejected the results (despite having won more than 170 seats in parliament). Calls for civil disobedience resulted in disturbances in Addis Ababa and other cities, including several particularly violent demonstrations in June and November of 2005 in which 193 protesters were killed by police and military forces. The demonstrations in 2005 were not the first signs of civil unrest and violent response in Ethiopia. There were multiple incidents in 2001, some of which involved the use of live ammunition against protesters, reportedly resulting in scores of deaths in Addis Ababa.