Ethiopia: Security Assessment

June 27, 2007

ETHIOPIA: SECURITY ASSESSMENT

Country The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia is the oldest independent country in Africa. Except for a brief period from 1936 to 1941, when it was occupied by fascist Italy, Ethiopia was never colonized by a foreign power. It is a landlocked country in East Africa two times the size of France and bordered by Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea, Kenya and Djibouti. It has nine regions that are divided by ethnicity and two city administrations, Dire Dawa and the capital city Addis Ababa. Tensions among the various ethnic groups in Ethiopia have been high, particularly among the three largest groups -- the Oromo, Amhara and Tigray.

Ethiopia also is one of the least developed countries in the world, according to the 2006 U.N. Human Development Report, which ranks Ethiopia 170 out of a possible 177. The country has a population of approximately 72 million, with poverty affecting about 81 percent of the people.

The U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia is located in Addis Ababa on Entoto Avenue (P.O. Box 1014). The daytime telephone number is (251) (11) 124-2424, which can be called from 8 a.m. to 10:45 a.m. and from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. Monday through Thursday and from 8 a.m. to 12 p.m. on Friday. Regional Security Officer Michael Bishop can be reached during the day at (251) (91) 120-7828. After hours, American citizens should call the embassy Marine security guard post at (251) (11) 124-2400 or (251) (11) 517-4313. Cell phone coverage outside of the capital, particularly in rural areas of Ethiopia, is unreliable.

SNNPR The Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR) is one of nine ethnic regions in Ethiopia. It shares a border with Kenya to the south, the Ilemi Triangle (an area claimed by Sudan, Kenya and Ethiopia) to the southwest, Sudan to the west and two other Ethiopian regions to the north. The SNNPR capital is Awasa. Other major cities and towns in the region include Arba Minch, Bonga, Chencha, Dila, Irgalem, Mizan Teferi, Sodo, Wendo and Worabe. The estimated population of the SNNPR is approximately 15 million.

The most dangerous areas in the SNNPR are those along the Kenya and Sudan borders because of the increased criminal, militant and insurgent activity that occurs near most international borders on Africa.

Terrorism There are several ethnic-based militant groups operating in Ethiopia, including the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Oromo Liberation Front and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. These groups are primarily engaged in separatist or independence movements against the Ethiopian government and do not present a significant threat to Western interests. However, because Ethiopia has a limited counterterrorism capability, a transnational terrorist organization such as al Qaeda would be capable of attacking symbols of Western culture in the country such as embassies and hotels.

There is actually little anti-Western or anti-American sentiment in Ethiopia aside from that expressed by Muslims and ethnic Somalis, who view Ethiopia -- which is engaged in ongoing military operations in Somalia -- as a Western proxy in the region. Many of the terrorist incidents that do occur in Ethiopia stem from conflict between militant groups and government forces. The most recent terrorist attacks in Ethiopia occurred in May and September 2006 in Jijiga, the capital of the Somali region in Eastern Ethiopia. The targets primarily were local businesses, including a bar, a hotel and several cafes. Three bombs also exploded in Addis Ababa in March at a restaurant, hotel and shop in the Mercato open-air market, causing significant damage and injuring several people.

Travelers to Ethiopia should be mindful of the places that have been targeted by terrorists. These include commercial and public areas frequented by foreigners such as hotels, restaurants, bars, clubs, markets and other tourist attractions. Airports and other transportation hubs also are potential targets (in September 2003, unidentified militants attacked a train heading from Djibouti to Dire Dawa). Overall, terrorist attacks that have occurred in Ethiopia have been relatively small in scale and not particularly deadly.

The danger of terrorism in Ethiopia is medium.1

Crime Petty crime such as pickpocketing and purse-snatching is relatively common in Ethiopia, particularly in crowded urban areas, and foreigners are often targeted. Crime in the cities is rarely violent, and when it is it usually involves physical force (knives and fists) rather than firearms. Travelers should limit the amount of cash they carry and leave valuables like passports, jewelry and airline tickets in a secure place such as a hotel safe. Wallets and keys should be carried in front, not back, pockets, and purses should be worn across the chest, not over the shoulder. Many reported burglaries in Ethiopia have been of closed businesses or vacant residences,

and burglars can often be deterred by the possibility of confrontation and resistance.

Travelers in Ethiopia should be aware of their surroundings at all times, especially in the rural areas and particularly on the roadways, where highway banditry and armed carjackings have been known to occur. Outside of the urban areas, it is best to travel by road only during the day and to travel in convoys whenever possible. If confronted by criminals, the best course of action is to give them what they want rather than risk escalating the situation into an act of violence. One of the most recent incidents involving foreigners occurred March 1, 2007, when a group of Western visitors were kidnapped by bandits in Ethiopia’s Afar region, which is in the northeastern part of the country. The Westerners were released unharmed, but the kidnappers said they would abduct any other foreigners who entered their territory.

NGO workers have been specifically targeted for robbery and kidnapping throughout Ethiopia, usually in the Somali region and the northern part of Afar. The SNNPR is relatively quiet in terms of criminal activity, although crime along the international borders is still a problem. Criminals have the ability to rob or kidnap a victim on one side of the border and slip into another country without suffering any consequences.

Police in Addis Ababa are generally honest and cooperative when dealing with travelers; however, they lack the necessary training and resources to be fully effective in handling complicated matters. American citizens needing police assistance to resolve serious issues are advised to contact the U.S. Embassy. Other emergency services in Ethiopia are inadequate. Response times are slow, and first- responders tend to be poorly trained and ill-equipped. Outside the capital, police and emergency services are virtually nonexistent.

Ethiopia serves as a transit point for heroin coming in from Southwest and Southeast Asia that is then sent to Europe and North America as well as cocaine meant for markets in southern Africa. Qat, a flowering plant native to East Africa, contains an amphetamine-like stimulant and is cultivated legally in Ethiopia for local use and regional export, mainly to Djibouti and Somalia. It is highly unlikely that foreign travelers will become involved with any drug- or organized-crime-related violence in Ethiopia if they are not participating in the activity since organized criminal elements do not target foreigners.

Due to the risk of violent crime along rural roads in Ethiopia, the threat of crime in the country is high.2

War and Insurgency Since December 2006, Ethiopian troops have been involved in fighting the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia, and although the fighting has been limited to Somalia, there is always the possibility of militant attacks directed against Ethiopia. Travelers should avoid the areas bordering Somalia as well as Ethiopia’s border with Kenya and Sudan, where armed groups are common and the threat of banditry and kidnapping is high. Travel to the border region between Ethiopia and Eritrea also is not advised because of the volatile security situation and high tensions that stem from an unresolved border dispute between the two countries. It is important for travelers going to any border region or remote area of Ethiopia to exercise extreme caution since Ethiopian security forces do not have a significant presence in those areas.

One example of the violence that occurs in the border regions is a major attack April 24 in the Ogaden area of the Somali region in eastern Ethiopia. Gunmen from the rebel ONLF attacked a Chinese-owned oil facility in Jijiga, killing 74 people, including nine Chinese nationals, and kidnapping several others. Numerous locals also were wounded in the attack. The ONLF has been clashing with government forces since the mid-1990s.

Because of the high number of rebel groups and border conflicts in Ethiopia, the threat of war and insurgency is high.3

Political Instability The last national elections in Ethiopia, on May 15, 2005, returned the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front party to power and left considerable political tension in their wake. There was strong public support for the opposition parties during the elections, and following their defeat, opposition leaders rejected the results (despite having won more than 170 seats in parliament). Calls for civil disobedience resulted in disturbances in Addis Ababa and other cities, including several particularly violent demonstrations in June and November of 2005 in which 193 protesters were killed by police and military forces.

The demonstrations in 2005 were not the first signs of civil unrest and violent response in Ethiopia. There were multiple incidents in 2001, some of which involved the use of live ammunition against protesters, reportedly resulting in scores of deaths in Addis Ababa. In May 2002, in Awasa, SNNPR, military forces shot into a crowd of protesting farmers, killing and wounding more than 50.

The SNNPR region has a history of civil unrest, and conditions still exist for it to happen again. In March 2002 in Tepi, two minority groups, the Sheko and Majenger, fought with police and local officials over their political rights. At least 18 civilians and one official were killed in the initial violence. Subsequent attacks ordered by local authorities on nearby villages killed more than 100 and left about 5,800 homeless.

There also have been sporadic ethnic clashes in Ethiopia’s Gambela region, which borders the SNNPR to the northwest. Violence broke out between the Anuak and Nuer communities in December 2003 and January 2004, leading to the deaths of hundreds of civilians and resulting in an increase in the military presence in Gambela town. Military personnel were actually involved in the violence, including the destruction of entire villages, but the Ethiopian government failed to take any action against the troops. The security situation in Gambela town is currently stable; however, the remainder of the region continues to be unpredictable and violence

could flare up again without warning. Travel to the Gambela region is highly discouraged.

A number of opposition leaders, journalists and activists who were critical of the election results were arrested following the protests in November 2005 and many of them remain in custody, facing charges ranging from treason to genocide. In general, detention without a trial is a relatively common occurrence in Ethiopia, where prison conditions are poor (and where there also have been allegations of torture). Any journalist who criticizes the Ethiopian government risks being arrested.

The threat of political instability in Ethiopia is high.4

Miscellaneous Threats The rainy season, which extends from June to September in Ethiopia, can significantly affect the condition of roads in rural areas (including the SNNPR), making some impassable because of flooding. Travelers leaving the cities during the rainy season should bring vehicle-recovery kits and take two vehicles.

Driving conditions in the country can be hazardous to begin with, since most roads are generally in poor condition. Local motorists also drive too fast, animals roam the roads, vehicles are poorly maintained and roadway lighting is insufficient. Driving at night outside the main urban areas should be avoided. When traveling between cities, travelers should make sure their vehicle is in good repair, has enough fuel to make the journey and is equipped with reliable communications equipment, spare tires and parts, food, water and a first-aid kit. Seatbelts should be worn and doors and windows should be locked at all times. Any long-range travel should be done in convoys of two or more vehicles with a set schedule and pre-established check-in procedures.

Vehicle accidents are a common occurrence in Ethiopia and can prove fatal because of the poor road conditions and unreliable emergency response. The scarcity of police in rural areas can result in locals taking the law into their own hands. If an accident occurs outside the capital, residents can become aggressive, especially if the accident injures or kills someone or someone’s livestock.

Land mines leftover from previous conflicts also are a problem in rural Ethiopia, especially on isolated dirt roads. Land mines are particularly plentiful in border areas such as the Somali and Tigray regions in eastern and northeastern Ethiopia. Every part of the country has been a battlefield in modern times, and although some areas have been cleared of land mines and unexploded ordnance, the border areas remain the biggest concern because the fighting there is the most recent (or is still going on).

Terrorist attacks against the train system in Ethiopia as well as incidents of sabotage and derailment by various militant groups in the country have resulted in a number of deaths, so travel by rail is discouraged.

Access to ATMs in Ethiopia is limited in Addis Ababa and practically nonexistent elsewhere. And aside from major international hotels such as the Hilton and Sheraton in Addis Ababa, restaurants, shops and other local businesses typically do not accept credit cards. Many businesses also might be reluctant to accept foreign currency, so it is best for foreign visitors to use only local currency.

Travelers should note that it is illegal to photograph military installations, police or military personnel, industrial facilities, government buildings and infrastructure, including roads, bridges, dams and airfields. Photographing prohibited locations can result in confiscation of the film and camera and possibly arrest. Fortunately, most sites are clearly marked. Because of cultural sensitivities concerning photography in Ethiopia, it is suggested that travelers not take pictures of any people, places or livestock without first obtaining permission.

Health facilities in Ethiopia are inadequate outside of Addis Ababa, and any foreign traveler who sustains a serious injury or illness anywhere in the country should be medically evacuated to Europe or a nearby country such as the United Arab Emirates. Medical evacuation insurance is encouraged, and the insurance company will often decide where to send the patient.

Insect-born diseases in particular pose a threat in Ethiopia, including Malaria, dengue fever, leishmaniasis, filariasis and African sleeping sickness. Travelers are encouraged to take prophylaxis to help prevent Malaria and try to avoid insect bites by wearing long shirts and pants and regularly applying insect repellant, especially when outside between dusk and dawn. Insect-borne illnesses are not as much of a problem in the higher elevations (over 6,500 feet).

Other diseases prevalent in Ethiopia include typhoid, hepatitis, polio, measles, tuberculosis, brucellosis and meningitis. Vaccinations for these diseases are encouraged before traveling. Because the untreated water in Ethiopia contains parasites that can transmit diseases, travelers there are advised not to drink water unless it is bottled and not to swim in any body of water. It is important for visitors suffering from fever or diarrhea to promptly seek medical attention. As do most sub- Saharan African countries, Ethiopia has a high rate of HIV/AIDS.

The high altitudes in the mountainous areas of Ethiopia, including Addis Ababa at 8,300 feet, also could cause difficulties for travelers who have lung or heart problems. Even otherwise healthy travelers can experience the effects of less oxygen at higher elevations, including shortness of breath, fatigue, nausea, headache and insomnia.

There also is a risk of earthquakes occurring in and around Ethiopia, which lies within the geologically unstable East African Rift. Should the magnitude be high enough, it is possible that strong tremors could lead to the collapse of buildings. The most recent earthquake recorded in Ethiopia occurred on May 17, 2007, with an epicenter about 145 miles northeast of Addis Ababa. With only a 4.4 magnitude, the earthquake caused no significant damage.

Because of Ethiopia’s location on the Horn of Africa and proximity to maritime trade routes and chokepoints, foreign governments tend to be interested in what goes on there. Intelligence assets from Israel and Russia -- and possibly China, India and France -- have been known to monitor the activities of NGOs in Ethiopia and they operate with more or less a free hand, given the primitive state of Ethiopian counterintelligence capabilities.

The miscellaneous threat level in Ethiopia is high.5 ______

1. Terrorism threat levels. Low: No known credible threat. Medium: Potential but unsubstantiated threats by capable indigenous or transnational actors. High: Demonstrable history and continued potential for militant attacks against generalized targets. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are not specifically targeted. Critical: Demonstrable history and continued likelihood of militant attacks. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are specifically targeted.

2. Crime threat levels. Low: Relatively low crime rate, mainly property or petty crime. Medium: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, low potential for violence. High: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, probability of violence and moderate risk of physical crime. Critical: Extensive criminal activity targeting foreigners with a high possibility of physical crime, including violence and kidnapping; heavily armed criminal elements abundant.

3. War and Insurgency threat levels. Low: No or relatively low threat of violent insurgency. Medium: Nearby insurgency with the potential of affecting city, region, country or transportation network. High: Insurgency within the city, region or country but with little direct effect on foreigners. Critical: Insurgency within the city, region or country directly threatening foreigners.

4. Political Instability threat levels. Low: No or minimal visible activity directed against the government. Medium: Sporadic street demonstrations, largely peaceful. High: Routine large-scale demonstrations, often affecting traffic and having the potential for violence. Critical: Endemic strikes, protests and street demonstrations almost always affecting traffic with a high probability of associated violence.

5. Miscellaneous threat levels. Low: Little or no known threats posed by disease, weather, natural disasters, transportation hazards or other dangers. Medium: Moderate level of risk posed by some or all of these threats. High: Considerable danger posed by some or all of these threats. Critical: Extremely high level of danger posed by some or all of these threats.