Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch
September 11, 2020 Special Note
• All forecasts in the report are based on conditions as of September 1. Any potential impacts from below freezing temperatures after September 1 will be reflected in future reports.
• NASS collected additional harvested acreage information for corn and soybeans in Iowa in response to the August 10 derecho. Corn harvested for grain area was reduced 550,000 acres; soybean acres were unchanged. NASS will collect harvested acreage for corn and soybeans in Iowa for the October Crop Production report since producer decisions were not final for all impacted acres.
• As is done every year in September, planted and harvested acreage was reviewed for cotton, peanuts, and rice using all available data, including FSA Certified Acreage Data.
September 11, 2020 Data Sources
Operator Reported Ag Yield Sample Size = 9,140 August 29 - September 7 Survey
Field Objective Yield Sample Size = 3,930 August 25 - September 1 Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through (Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt August 27 September 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes
September 11, 2020 Iowa Derecho August 10, 2020
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and _Science/Disaster-Analysis/index.php
September 11, 2020 U.S. Drought Monitor September 1, 2020
September 11, 2020 United States Corn Condition Percent Rated Good to Excellent Percent 80
75
70
65
60
55
50 5/24 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 United States Corn Progress Percent Dented Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Corn Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 92,006 83,473 178.5 14,899,557 % Change from Previous Estimate NC ↓ 0.7 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 2.5
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.6 ↑ 2.6 ↑ 6.6 ↑ 9.4
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Iowa 14,000 ↑ 3.7 13,000 ↓ 0.4 191 ↓ 3.5 2,483,000 ↓ 3.9 Illinois 10,900 ↑ 3.8 10,700 ↑ 4.9 203 ↑ 12.2 2,172,100 ↑ 17.7 Nebraska 9,800 ↓ 3.0 9,450 ↓ 3.7 188 ↑ 3.3 1,776,600 ↓ 0.5 Minnesota 8,100 ↑ 3.8 7,650 ↑ 5.5 200 ↑ 15.6 1,530,000 ↑ 22.0 Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 186 ↑ 10.1 976,500 ↑ 19.9
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Corn Yield United States
Bushels per Acre 190 178.5 176.6176.4 180 174.6 171.0 168.4 167.4 170 164.4 160.3 158.1 160 153.3 152.6 150.7 149.1 147.9 146.8 150 142.2 138.6 136.9138.2 140 134.4133.8 131.5 129.3 127.1126.7 130 123.1
120 113.5 108.6 110 100.7 100 90 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Corn Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Corn NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Corn Objective Yield Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region
Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre 29,500 195
190
29,000 185
180 28,500
175
28,000 170
165 27,500
160
27,000 155
Final
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September September 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ears per Acre Yield
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Corn Production United States
Billion Bushels
16.0 15.1 14.6 14.9 14.2 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.6 14.0 12.3 12.0 10.8
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 2020 U.S. Corn Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 15.5
15.4
15.3
15.2
15.1
15.0
14.9
14.8
14.7 August September October November Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 11, 2020 United States Soybean Condition Percent Rated Good to Excellent Percent 80
75
70
65
60
55
50 5/24 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 United States Soybean Progress Percent Dropping Leaves Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Soybeans Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 83,825 83,020 51.9 4,312,819 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 2.6 ↓ 2.5
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.2 ↑ 10.8 ↑ 9.5 ↑ 21.4
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Illinois 10,400 ↑ 4.5 10,350 ↑ 5.0 62.0 ↑ 14.8 641,700 ↑ 20.5 Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 54.0 ↓ 1.8 503,280 ↑ 0.3 Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 52.0 ↑ 18.2 381,160 ↑ 28.0 Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 60.0 ↑ 17.6 340,800 ↑ 24.7 Nebraska 5,000 ↑ 2.0 4,950 ↑ 2.3 60.0 ↑ 2.6 297,000 ↑ 4.9
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Soybean Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
54 51.9 51.9 50.6 49.3 48.0 49 47.5 47.4
44.0 44.0 43.5 43.1 42.9 44 42.2 42.0 41.4 41.7 40.0 39.6 39.7 38.9 38.9 38.1 38.0 39 37.6 37.6 36.6 35.3 34.2 33.9 34 32.6
29 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Soybean Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Soybeans NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Soybean Objective Yield Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region
Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre 2,000 60
1,900 55
1,800
50 1,700
1,600 45
1,500
40 1,400
1,300 35
Final
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September September 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Soybean Production United States
Billion Bushels
5.0 4.41 4.43 4.5 4.30 4.31 3.93 3.93 4.0 3.55 3.5 3.36 3.10 3.04 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 2020 U.S. Soybean Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 4.50
4.45
4.40
4.35
4.30
4.25
4.20
4.15
4.10 August September October November Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
September 11, 2020 United States Cotton Condition Percent Rated Good to Excellent Percent 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 United States Cotton Progress Percent Bolls Opening Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Cotton Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales) United States 12,116 9,005 910 17,064 % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.6 ↓ 2.6 ↓ 3.0 ↓ 5.6
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.6 ↓ 14.3
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Pounds/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bales) % ∆ PY Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 737 ↑ 27.5 5,959 ↓ 6.0 Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 932 ↓ 2.2 2,310 ↓ 15.7 Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7 Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,179 ↑ 6.0 1,290 ↓ 20.4 Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 976 ↑ 5.2 905 ↓ 12.0
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Cotton Acres United States
Million Acres 14.7 15.0 14.1 13.7 14.0 12.7 13.0 12.3 12.1
12.0 11.1 10.4 11.6 11.0 10.1 11.1 10.0 10.0 9.0 8.6 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.0 8.1 7.0 7.5 6.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Planted Harvested
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Cotton Yield United States
Pounds per Acre 980
905 910 930 892 879 882 867 880 855 831 838 822 823 814 813 812 830 790 776 766 780 730 708 730 700 705 705 673 665 680 652 625 632 630 606 607 580 537 530 480 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Cotton Yield Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Cotton Production United States
Million Bales
25.0
20.9 19.9 20.0 18.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.3 15.6 15.0 12.9 12.9
10.0
5.0
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Chickpeas 254 249 1,561 Lb 3,889 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 16.4 ↓ 16.5 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 43.7 ↓ 38.3 ↑ 1.1 ↓ 37.6 Pima Cotton 201 193 1,388 Lb 559 Bale % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.8 ↑ 1.8 ↓ 1.0 ↑ 0.8 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.3 ↓ 13.5 ↓ 5.7 ↓ 18.5 Upland Cotton 11,915 8,812 899 Lb 16,505 Bale % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.6 ↓ 2.7 ↓ 3.2 ↓ 5.8 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.6 ↑ 11.0 ↓ 14.2 Lentils 518 486 1,338 Lb 6,504 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.3 ↑ 5.4 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.6 ↑ 12.8 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 20.7 Peanuts 1,665 1,623 4,185 Lb 6,793,220 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 10.0 ↑ 10.2 ↓ 0.8 ↑ 9.3 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.6 ↑ 16.6 ↑ 6.0 ↑ 23.6 Dry Edible Peas 999 949 1,953 Lb 18,534 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.5 ↑ 5.2 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 9.4 ↓ 9.8 ↓ 8.1 ↓ 17.1
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Rice 3,037 2,988 7,529 Lb 224,952 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.0 ↑ 4.1 ↓ 0.9 ↑ 3.1 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 20.9 ↑ 0.8 ↑ 21.8 Sorghum 5,620 4,845 73.9 Bu 357,910 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 3.5 ↓ 3.5 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.7 ↑ 3.6 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 4.8 Sugarcane N/A 932 36.6 Ton 34,138 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.9 ↑ 1.1 ↑ 2.0 % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 4.6 ↑ 6.9 Sugarbeets 1,148 1,127 31.2 Ton 35,143 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.6 ↓ 0.7 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 15.1 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 22.9 Tobacco N/A 196 1,880 Lb 368,065 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.5 ↓ 0.6 ↓ 1.1 % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.8 ↓ 8.7 ↓ 21.3
September 11, 2020 September 2020 Fruit and Nuts Production
Hazelnut Production Production Unit Oregon
(1,000 Units) Thousand Tons
80.0 Hazelnuts (OR) 71.0 Ton 71.0 70.0 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 60.0 51.0 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 61.4 50.0 45.0 44.0 44.0 38.5 40.0 35.5 36.0 Navel Oranges (CA) 1,680 Ton 31.0 32.0 30.0 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 20.0
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.2 10.0
Walnuts (CA) 780 Ton 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.4 Walnut Production California
Thousand Tons
900 780 800 689 679 700 630 653 606 600 571 497 492 500 461
400
300
200
100
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020 Selected Upcoming Reports
September 24 Hogs and Pigs
September 25 Cattle on Feed
Agricultural Prices September 30 Grain Stocks Small Grains Summary
Cotton System October 1 Fats & Oils Grain Crushings
Cotton Ginnings October 9 Crop Production
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php
September 11, 2020 USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting
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