Coastal Water Quality Assessment of the Port Honduras Marine

COASTAL WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF THE PORT HONDURAS MARINE

RESERVE, BELIZE: A CASE STUDY OF HUMAN-ENVIRONMENTAL INTERACTIONS

BRENNA SWEETMAN

MICHAEL K. STEINBERG, COMMITTEE CHAIR MATTHEW LAFEVOR JULIA CHERRY

A THESIS

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in the Department of Geography in the Graduate School of The University of Alabama

TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA

2018

ABSTRACT

This study examines temporal changes in water quality of the Port Honduras Marine

Reserve (PHMR), Belize. Trends in dissolved oxygen (DO), salinity, temperature and pH were analyzed from ten sites throughout PHMR for statistically significant relationships from 1998–

2015. This information was complemented by field observations and an evaluation of human population changes at the local, regional and national level to gain a broad perspective of water resources. Maintaining satisfactory water quality is critical for sustaining healthy ecosystems and the communities and economies reliant upon them. PHMR represents a unique link between upland watersheds and marine ecosystems, which comprise important habitat for many aquatic species. Ecotourism activities in PHMR have become increasingly popular in recent decades and generate direct and indirect income opportunities for local communities. As a result, degradation of water quality of PHMR through human activities could have substantial ecological and economic consequences for southern Belize. Overall, the analysis of water quality revealed significant seasonal patterns, slight increasing trends in DO and salinity, but overall relatively stable water quality. These results are likely related to several factors including limited coastal development, the absence of coastal beaches and low population density in southern Belize. This study provides baseline information for future research opportunities and outlines recommendations for effective management strategies of PHMR to mitigate impacts from current and future threats to water quality.

DEDICATION

This thesis is dedicated to my parents Christine and Harold Sweetman.

iii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS

CZMAI Coastal Zone Management Authority Institute

DO Dissolved Oxygen

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

MPA Marine Protected Area

NGO Non-governmental Organization

PHMR Port Honduras Marine Reserve

PPT Parts per Thousand

TIDE Toledo Institute for Development and Environment

°C Degrees Celsius

Mg/l Milligram per Liter

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Thank you, Dr. Steinberg, for sharing the beauty of Belize and providing me the opportunity to study there. Many thanks to my committee members Dr. Cherry and Dr. LaFevor, whose guidance and comments greatly improved the content of my thesis. Thank you to my parents, Christine and Harold Sweetman, for the many years of guidance and encouragement of my educational pursuits. Thank you to fellow graduate students Alysa Delgado and Jonathan

Kleinman, who supported my thesis work both near and far. Much gratitude goes to the Yellow

Dog Community Conservation Foundation and the Conference of Latin Americanist

Geographers that provided financial support for this project. Thank you to the Toledo Institute for Development and Environment in Punta Gorda, Belize; to Science Director James Foley; and to all of the community research assistants and marine biologists who collected the water quality data.

CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ...... ii

DEDICATION ...... iii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS ...... iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... v

LIST OF TABLES ...... viii

LIST OF FIGURES ...... ix

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

2. METHODS ...... 6

2.1 Study Area ...... 6

2.2 Water Quality Data Collection ...... 9

2.3 Statistical Analyses ...... 10

2.4 Human Population Data Collection and Field Observations ...... 12

3. RESULTS ...... 14

4. DISCUSSION ...... 24

4.1 Water Quality Discussion ...... 24

4.2 Human Population Discussion ...... 25

4.3 Water Quality Field Observations ...... 26

4.4 Current and Future Water Quality Threats ...... 29

4.5 Limitations ...... 32

4.6 Recommendations ...... 33

4.7 Challenges and Opportunities ...... 36

5. CONCLUSION ...... 41

REFERENCES ...... 43

viii

LIST OF TABLES

1. Summary of mean value and standard deviation of wet, dry and annual seasonal variation in water quality of temperature, pH, DO, salinity for ten sites of Port Honduras Marine Reserve (PHMR), Belize 1998–2015 ...... 16

2. Spearman’s rho correlation analysis of all water quality parameters and precipitation for Port Honduras Marine Reserve (PHMR), Belize 1998–2015 ...... 21

3. Monotonic trends in DO, temperature, salinity derived with the seasonal Kendall test for 10 sites of Port Honduras Marine Reserve (PHMR), Belize 1998–2015. Slope significance is indicated with asterisks...... 22

4. Summary of Belize human population change and population density in Belize, the six districts of Belize, and the town of Punta Gorda located within the Toledo District...23

LIST OF FIGURES

1. Map of study location in Belize illustrating ten water quality sampling locations, seven adjacent watersheds, the conservation and preservation zones of PHMR, the location of Punta Gorda Town and the municipal waste site...... 7

2. Time series graphs of temperature at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015) ...... 17

3. Time series graphs of dissolved oxygen (DO) at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015) ...... 18

4. Time series graphs of salinity at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015) ...... 19

5. Time series graphs of pH at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015) ...... 20

6. Photo of flat stones user for domestic use along the Rio Grande River by the San Pedro de Colombia Mayan village ...... 27

7. Photo of the Punta Gorda unregulated municipal waste site, “the dump,” located less than 1 km from the Rio Grande River ...... 29

8. Photo of waters surrounding West Snake Caye, the location of proposed tourism infrastructure ...... 31

1. INTRODUCTION

Marine and coastal ecosystems are considered some of the most biodiverse and highly vulnerable ecosystems globally (Gray 1997; Roberts et al. 2002; Worm et al. 2006). Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as the Port Honduras Marine Reserve (PHMR) in southern Belize, are commonly used to maintain marine biological diversity and protect ecosystem health by ensuring the sustainable utilization of natural resources (Kelleher and Kenchington 1991; Jones

1994). These aims are accomplished through monitoring and regulating human activities to conserve, maintain and restore species and their habitat (Salm et al. 2006; Di Lorenzo et al.

2016).

Water quality is the foundation of healthy marine ecosystems. Degradation of water quality, habitat, or a combination of both, can have severe consequences for fisheries and associated ecosystems (Karr 1981). Traditionally, water quality has been defined as the physical and chemical constituents of water required for human or ecosystem needs (Karr and Dudley

1981). To maintain reproductive rates and competitive abilities, fish species, among other aquatic organisms, require specific water quality standards. Deviation from normal water quality ranges typically results in adverse ecological impacts and declining populations (Jobling 1981;

Karr and Dudley 1981). For example, the depletion of dissolved oxygen (DO) influences aquatic species metabolic activity (Kramer 1987); salinity, a variable highly influenced by freshwater influx and precipitation, is critical for fish species growth and reproduction; (Montague and Ley

1993); and temperature is closely linked to biological productivity (Brett 1969; Houde 1989).

Moreover, coral reefs, such as those in PHMR, are highly sensitive to particular stressors

including changes in salinity, sedimentation, temperature and exposure to pollutants and nutrients (Bell 1992; Glynn 1993; Fabricius 2005). Sedimentation and nutrients generated from runoff are one of the biggest potential sources of reef degradation in Belize and worldwide.

(McCulloch et al. 2003; Rogers 1990). Nutrients stimulate algal growth which can lead to deoxygenation of water when algae die, resulting in the death of the ecosystem.

Marine water quality is complex and these variables can be influenced by both natural and anthropogenic processes (Karydis and Kitsiou 2013; Krembs and Sackmann 2015).

Upland land-use change and associated human population growth are variables that have been identified as causing accelerated changes in coastal water quality (Meador and Goldstein 2003;

Foley et al. 2005). For PHMR, threats to water quality have been identified as watershed-based pollution, nutrient fertilizer runoff and erosion from the adjacent watersheds that discharge to the coastal waters (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999; Burke and Sugg 2006; Foley et al. 2015). In addition to understanding direct human impacts, examining indirect anthropogenic influences on water resources from climate change is an issue of increasing global concern (Vörösmarty et al. 2000).

Geospatial modeling scenarios for 2020 to 2080 for Central America indicate the possibility of higher temperatures and reduced precipitation rates for Belize, potentially perturbing water temperature and salinity of shallow tropical ecosystems (Anderson et al. 2008). Long-term water quality data are therefore critical to understand directional changes in water resources associated with climate change (Ahmadia et al. 2015).

MPAs serve crucial ecological roles by protecting fish nurseries, managing fisheries, preserving habitat, among others (Lauck et al. 1998; Beck et al. 2001; Blyth-Skyrme 2006). In addition to high ecological value, MPAs also provide important economic value by enhancing tourism and promoting sustainable development (Dixon et al. 1993; Cho 2005). For Belize, 30

percent of the nation’s gross domestic product is directly related to commercial ecotourism activities that occur in the coastal zone, with sport fishing highlighted as one of the most economically lucrative (Cho 2005; Robinson et al. 2004; Moreno 2005). Shallow coastal waters, such as those of PHMR, are well known for providing habitat for juvenile and adult sport fish including the highly esteemed species bonefish (Albula vulpes), Atlantic tarpon (Megalops atlanticus) and permit (Trachinotus falcatus) (Beck et al. 2001; Gilliers et al. 2004; Adams and

Cooke 2015). Sport fishing for permit, bonefish and tarpon in PHMR is considered a major component of the ecotourism industry in southern Belize, generating more than US$695,000 in

2005 (Coleman and Diamond). The lagoons and adjacent patch reefs of PHMR provide the focal destination for permit guides in Belize and many view PHMR as the most important permit fishing grounds in all of southern Belize. In the Toledo District, and elsewhere in the country, guiding for sport fish is considered one of the most desirable jobs and is passed down from father to son. These activities generate significant economic benefits through direct and indirect expenditures to the local communities. Other ecotourism activities associated with PHMR include kayaking, hiking, birding and snorkeling (Cho 2005). In 2007, approximately 117,000 visitors were recorded to have visited MPAs in Belize, spending an estimated US$17 million on accommodation, recreation, food and other expenses (Cooper 2009). The overall value of reef- and mangrove-related fisheries, tourism and shoreline protection services in Belize is estimated to be US$395-$559 million per year (Cooper 2009). Robinson et al. estimated that PHMR generates annual revenues of approximately US$2.41 million based on fisheries, tourism and recreation values, highlighting the strong economic significance of PHMR (200).

Although other studies have examined water quality of the PHMR region in the past

(Sullivan et al. 1995; Heyman and Kjerfve 1999), none have evaluated long-term changes since

the establishment of PHMR as an MPA in 2000. Water quality data for a 17-year study period is a valuable and impressive quantity of data for a tropical, developing country. In Belize, the southern region is a historically understudied area of Belize relative to the northern, more accessible parts of the country. The objectives of this study were to, (1) analyze the temporal trends of DO, salinity, temperature and pH of the coastal waters of PHMR between 1998– 2015 and, (2) examine human population changes in Belize at multiple scales during the study period, to gain a broad understanding of human impacts on an ecologically complex and economically important marine landscape for improved management and research efforts. These objectives were achieved by using a mixed-methods approach integrating both quantitative and qualitative approaches of geography to achieve a holistic perspective of water resources and management in southern Belize.

Geography has, and will continue to have, a variety of approaches, areas of study, and traditions associated with it (Castree 2005). Early cultural geographer Carl Sauer argued that geography studies the way in which man has manipulated the physical landscape and the ways in which the physical landscape has shaped man (Sauer 1925). He promoted the concept of geography as a subjective rather than objective science, which formed the roots of human geography that later expanded in the twentieth century. While some have created a distinct boundary between human and physical geography, others have attempted to integrate the two to deepen the understanding of human-environmental interactions (Goudie 1986; Massey 1999).

One example that demonstrates the complex relationship between humans and the natural environment is the issue of resource allocation. Inherently, resource allocation is a geographic issue because it is based on the spatial domains of resources and resource users (Giordano 2003).

The “tragedy of the commons,” describing the over-use and decline of “common” resources by humans based on their own self-interests, is now a widely used concept to describe human interaction with natural resources (Hardin 1968). It’s an issue of increasing global concern because the extraction of resources is occurring at an unsustainable rate. One major problem Hardin identified in his discussion of the commons was the exceedingly large human population, which has since increased exponentially since the initial time of his argument (1968).

Of the global increase in population, population growth and economic development have increased most rapidly in tropical countries and coastal areas such as Belize (Wilkinson and

Salvat 2012). MPAs are widely-used tools for managing marine commons. In marine environments, over-fishing can have unsustainable consequences on fish populations from increased human populations (Wilkinson and Salvat 2012). MPAs limit access to fisheries and represent a prime example of attempting to allocate natural resources appropriately (McWhinnie

2009). Hardin argued the solution to the human-environmental debate of the tragedy of the commons and is rooted in morality with no simple, straightforward solution. This represents a substantial challenge for marine resource managers who strive to balance the interests of resource users and ecological resources. Through the synthesis of multiple, broad perspectives, such as those used in this study examining water quality and human population growth, a more comprehensive perspective of water resources and potential management approaches is achievable.

2. METHODS

2.1 Study Area

The coastal portions of Belize are a component of the wider tri-national Gulf of

Honduras. PHMR is located between the latitudes 16° 08’ N and 16° 12’ N and longitudes

88° 25’ W and 88° 45’ W on the coast of southern Belize and covers an area of 414 km2 (Fig. 1).

East of PHMR is the southern extension of the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System, the second largest barrier reef in the world (UNESCO 2017). Inland and west of PHMR is the Toledo

District, the southernmost district of Belize. The Toledo District contains the Maya Mountain

Marine Corridor and the seven watersheds that drain into PHMR. These watersheds are Deep

River, Golden Stream, Middle River, Monkey River, Punta Ycacos Lagoon, Rio Grande and

Indian Hill Lagoon (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999) (Fig. 1).

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) defines an MPA as an area of sea especially dedicated to the protection and maintenance of biological diversity, and of natural and associated cultural resources, and managed through legal and or other effective means (IUCN 2017). According to the IUCN’s classification of protected areas, PHMR is equivalent to a Category IV Habitat/Species Management, with the primary objective of maintaining, conserving and restoring species and habitats while simultaneously allowing multiple uses of the reserve (Foster et al. 2011; IUCN 2017). The wide variety of habitats results in tremendous biodiversity in the reserve (Robinson et al. 2004).

Figure 1. Map of study location in Belize illustrating ten water quality sampling locations, seven adjacent watersheds, the conservation and preservation zones of PHMR, the location of Punta Gorda Town and the municipal waste site. Site numbers correspond to those in Table 1.

PHMR is a tropical, semi-estuarine embayment that supports complex and diverse marine ecosystems including mangrove forests, seagrass vegetation and coral reefs (Foster et al. 2011;

Clarke et al. 2012). Three zones divide PHMR based on use: 95% is a General Use Zone, where commercial, subsistence and recreational fishing activities are allowed; 4% is a Conservation

Zone, where “no-take” recreational activities are permitted; and 1% is a Preservation Zone, where no humans are permitted unless approved for research purposes (Foster et al. 2011) (Fig.

1). The specific section of the reef adjacent to Belize, known as the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve

System, was classified as an UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1996 (UNESCO 2017). This reef system is unique in that it is the largest in the Atlantic-Caribbean region (UNESCO 2017). In recent decades, human activities and natural disturbances have caused significant changes to the coral reef ecosystems with conditions continuing to worsen (Almalda-Villela et al. 2002; Foster et al. 2011).

In addition to coral reef species, PHMR supports other complex and diverse marine ecosystems such as mangrove and seagrass vegetation (Clarke et al. 2012). These ecosystems provide prime habitat for several endangered species including the hawksbill turtle

(Eretmochelys Imbicata), the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), goliath grouper

(Epinephelus itajara), the American crocodile (Crocodylus Acutus) and staghorn and elkhorn corals (Acropora cervicornis and Acropora Palmata) (USAID 2012). The reserve also protects habitat for the commercially viable species of queen conch (Strombus gigas) and spiny lobster

(Panulirus argus), both of which contribute significantly to the local economy and are a local food source (Foster et al. 2011). In 2014 the estimated value of lobster exports was US$6.8 million and US$2.4 million for queen conch (McDonald et al. 2017). Additionally, the ecosystems of PHMR support over 70 fish species, of which 40 have commercial value (Foster et al. 2011). Further, the large number of undeveloped islands in PHMR with unique natural features provide habitat for birds, invertebrates, reptiles and amphibians (Sullivan et al. 1995).

The dominant vegetation type on the coast and of the cayes throughout PHMR is red mangrove

(Rhizophora mangle), which offers habitat for many larval and juvenile fish species while also helping to stabilize the coastline (Robertson and Duke 1987; Robinson et al. 2004). As a result, the interface of the coastal wetlands plays an important role in protecting water quality.

The Toledo District has a high annual precipitation of 4064 mm from the close proximity to the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (HYDROMET 2017). The region is also characterized by significant seasonal variation in precipitation between the wet and dry season, with wettest months of the year defined as June through September (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999). Little variation in annual air temperature exists with seasonal climate most influenced by precipitation rates. The high rainfall rates associated with the rainy season in particular contribute to high watershed runoff entering PHMR, causing an inshore to offshore gradient in salinity, temperature and turbidity during the wet season (Sullivan et al. 1995). The inner Gulf of Honduras receives a total estimated 1232 m3s-1 annual freshwater discharge from 42,408 km2 of drainage area encompassing watersheds of Guatemala, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico (Thattai et al. 2003).

Consequently, water quality is sensitive to the watershed processes and land cover of the countries surrounding Belize.

During the wet season discharge typically exceeds the dry season discharge by a factor of

5-9 (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999; Burke and Sugg 2006). High precipitation during the wet season contributes to significant runoff of sediment and freshwater which drive gravitational currents. A

2008 remote sensing study estimated terrestrial runoff to the Gulf of Honduras using river discharge and numerical ocean circulation models and showed that the Gulf undergoes considerable seasonal influence of suspended sediments and dissolved nutrients (Chérubin et al.

2008). The intense precipitation during wet season is one of the three factors controlling currents in the Gulf of Honduras (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999; Chérubin et al. 2008). The second factor is the northerly Cayman Current that creates a cyclonic counter current gyre between Belize and

Guatemala (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999; Chérubin et al. 2008). Third, there are occasional flows

of deep, oceanic waters entering the Gulf of Honduras from the Caribbean Sea with deep currents flowing opposite to surface currents (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999; Ezer et al. 2005).

2.2 Water Quality Data Collection

Water samples were collected in situ from ten sampling sites at monthly intervals from

January 1998–December 2015 (Fig. 1). Data collection was completed by the Toledo Institute for Development and Environment (TIDE) and the Coastal Zone Management Authority and

Institute (CZMAI). Site determination was based on existing monitoring locations established by

CZMAI and continued by TIDE, the leading conservation and research non-governmental organization (NGO) of Southern Belize. All sites were located inside PHMR, with the exception of 1A, located south of the reserve of the mouth of the Rio Grande River. The physical parameter measured was temperature and the chemical parameters measured were salinity, DO and pH.

Measurements were taken using a Minisonde Hydro-lab water quality multi-probe Model 52 and

YSI ProPlus probe Model 32. The instruments were calibrated and inserted to a 1 m depth to record the values of surface water characteristics. Monthly precipitation data from the weather observing station in Punta Gorda were acquired from the National Meteorological Service of

Belize for January 1998–December 2015. These data of field parameters were compiled into a comprehensive database and appropriate measures were implemented for quality control purposes.

2.3 Statistical Analyses

Exploratory analyses and descriptive statistics were performed to understand annual and seasonal variations of the water quality parameters at the ten sampling sites. Time series graphs for temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH were created from 1998 to 2015 to visualize long-trends. Irregularities in sampling frequency and data collection resulted in missing data,

outliers and nonparametric data distribution. As a result, only nonparametric statistical analyses were performed to accommodate this idiosyncrasy. The nonparametric Mann-Whitney U test was performed to understand significant temporal variation of the water quality variables between the wet and dry season by comparing wet season data (June–September) to dry season data (October–May) (Mann and Whitney 1947; González et al. 2008; Sebastiá et al. 2013;

Fatema et al. 2014). The strength of the association between temperature, salinity, DO, pH, precipitation and season was analyzed using the Spearman’s rho correlation analysis (Stanley and Nixon 1992; Helsel and Hirsch 2002; Singh et al. 2004; Shrestha and Kazama 2007; Sebastiá et al. 2013; Sanfilippo et al. 2016). These statistical analyses were performed in SPSS ver. 24.0 statistical package.

Long-term temporal analyses were used to detect the existence of increasing or decreasing trends for the parameters of DO, temperature and salinity in PHMR from 1998–2015.

Detection of water quality trends is complex, particularly when seasonal variations are substantial, as is the case of southern Belize (Helsel and Hirsch 2002). As a result, the Seasonal

Kendall test, a modification of the Mann-Kendall test, was applied to the data for each sampling site (Hirsch et al. 1982). The Seasonal Kendall test has been widely used to examine water quality of tropical and estuarine environments (Wiseman et al. 1990; Walker 1991; Stanley and

Nixon 1992; Boyer et al. 1999; Stoddard et al. 1999; Donohue et al. 2001). The goal of this test is to understand continuous, monotonic (increasing or decreasing) long-term trends of water quality variables. The Seasonal Kendall test is robust and recommended for use with water quality datasets that contain missing data observations and seasonal autocorrelation, two principal characteristics of our dataset (Hirsch et al. 1982). Although there are several large gaps in the dataset (2001-2003, 2003-2004, 2006-2007), Helsel and Hirsch recommend a monotonic

trend test over a step analysis if the data gap is less than one third of the total record, as is the case for this study (1992). Missing data for pH spanning several years resulted in its omission from the Seasonal Kendall test. Twelve “seasons” were selected to represent each month of sampling. For example, an observation for January was compared to other January observations to determine an increase or decrease with time. Sen’s slope estimator was used to find the rate of change (i.e. the median slope) by estimating the slope of the trend and variance of the residuals

(Sen 1968; Helsel and Hirsch 2002). A positive slope represents an increasing trend and a negative slope represents a decreasing trend. The Seasonal Kendall analyses was performed in

XLSTAT ver. 2017.5 using significance thresholds of p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001.

2.4 Human Population Data Collection and Field Observations

Changes in human population were measured as an approach to quantify potential anthropogenic pressure on water quality of PHMR. This approach was utilized to determine if water quality deterioration could be linked to human population change during the study period.

Human population data were acquired from the Statistical Institute of Belize’s census reports for the population of Belize, the six districts of Belize, and the town of Punta Gorda 1998–2017.

Data from national, regional and local scales were collected to gain a comprehensive understanding of human population change at multiple levels in multiple geographic areas.

Human population growth was calculated as a percentage by comparing the 1998 population sizes to 2017 population sizes.

Field observations of PHMR and the Rio Grande watershed were also conducted during

June and July of 2017. These observations were conducted through boat expeditions with TIDE to water quality sampling sites throughout PHMR as well as through car travel to observe the Rio

Grande River. The Rio Grande watershed is the second largest watershed that empties into

PHMR directly and was selected for field observations because it is the most easily accessible from the town of Punta Gorda. During this time three casual conversations occurred with local community members to understand their perceptions of water resources. Two conversations were conducted with upland Mayan residents in the communities of San Miguel and San Pedro de

Colombia and a third conversation was conducted with a Punta Gorda marine tour guide. These individuals were selected through their close connection with TIDE’s “Ridge to Reef” ecotourism expeditions.

3. RESULTS

The results of the exploratory analyses showed mean water temperatures were highly seasonal ranging from 30.29 °C during the wet season (site 2A) to 27.80 °C during the dry season (site 4C) (Table 1). Mean salinity ranged from 23.05 ppt (2A) during the wet season to

35.13 ppt (4B) during the dry season. Mean DO varied from 5.54 mg/l during the wet season

(4C) to 6.19 mg/l during the dry season (4A). A comparison of mean values of temperature and salinity between wet and dry season demonstrated a seasonal pattern at all stations, whereas mean values of DO and pH showed little seasonal variation. The time series graphs demonstrate the cyclical fluctuations of wet and dry season for temperature (Fig. 2) at the ten sites but show weaker seasonal fluctuations for DO, salinity, and pH (Fig. 3, Fig 4., Fig. 5). In general, repeated trends are visible for each site over time, demonstrating relative spatial homogeneity across the ten sampling sites. The time series graphs depict trends over time but are not statistically significant.

The results of the temporal analysis revealed statistically significant seasonal fluctuations for temperature, DO, salinity, pH and precipitation between the wet and dry season, with pH demonstrating the least fluctuation. The results of Spearman’s rho correlation analysis identified moderate (0.40–0.59) to strong (0.60–0.79) positive associations between season, temperature, salinity and precipitation at the p < 0.01 threshold (Table 2). Season was negatively correlated with temperature (-0.58), positively correlated with salinity (0.46), and negatively correlated with precipitation (-0.71). Salinity and precipitation also showed an inverse relationship (-0.51).

The results of the Seasonal Kendall test indicated statistically significant increasing trends with positive Sen’s slope for DO at eight sampling sites and an increasing salinity trend at six sampling sites (Table 3). No significant trends were found for temperature at any of the sites.

The maximum slope value was 0.30 for salinity at site 3A. No slope values were greater than

0.30, indicating considerably low rates of change over the 17-year study period.

Table 1. Summary of mean value and standard deviation of wet, dry and annual seasonal variation in water quality of temperature, pH, DO, salinity for ten sites of Port Honduras Marine Reserve (PHMR), Belize 1998–2015.

Site Site name Seasona Temperature (°C) pH DO (mg/l) b Salinity (ppt)c 1A Rio Grande Wet 29.92 ± 0.95 8.05 ± 1.00 6.03 ± 1.33 33.66 ± 3.92 Dry 28.11 ± 1.46 8.04 ± 0.70 6.08 ± 1.53 28.51 ± 5.21

Annual 28.77 ± 1.56 8.04 ± 0.90 6.05 ± 1.40 31.74 ± 5.08

2A Golden Stream Wet 30.29 ± 1.30 7.95 ± 0.71 5.82 ± 1.35 23.05 ± 7.53 Dry 28.61 ± 1.78 8.01 ± 0.89 5.66 ± 1.37 31.40 ± 6.11

Annual 29.22 ± 1.80 7.99 ± 0.62 5.72 ± 1.36 33.61 ± 5.19

2B Hen and Chick Wet 30.00 ± 1.06 8.05 ± 0.74 5.78 ± 1.15 28.25 ± 4.59 Dry 28.03 ± 1.59 8.07 ± 0.98 5.91 ± 1.30 33.34 ± 4.66

Annual 28.74 ± 1.71 8.00 ± 0.55 5.87 ± 1.24 28.40 ± 5.23

2C Moho/Stuart Caye Wet 29.82 ± 0.75 8.06 ± 0.73 5.93 ± 1.21 30.11 ± 4.09 Dry 28.18 ± 1.36 8.09 ± 1.15 6.11 ± 1.47 34.22 ± 3.77

Annual 28.78 ± 1.41 8.08 ± 0.48 6.04 ± 1.38 31.48 ± 5.28 3A Deep River Wet 30.23 ± 0.99 7.95 ± 0.75 5.65 ± 1.21 28.66 ± 5.83 Dry 28.31 ± 1.54 8.05 ± 0.88 5.87 ± 1.31 33.06 ± 4.70

Annual 28.99 ± 1.64 8.01 ± 0.83 5.79 ± 1.27 31.74 ± 5.54

3B Wilson Caye Wet 29.87 ± 0.72 8.11 ± 0.93 5.74 ± 1.12 32.01 ± 4.22 Dry 28.05 ± 1.37 8.22 ± 1.16 6.08 ± 1.39 34.69 ± 3.42

Annual 28.69 ± 1.46 8.18 ± 0.76 5.95 ± 1.30 31.46 ± 5.10

3C West Snake Caye Wet 29.99 ± 0.74 7.97 ± 0.93 5.70 ± 1.12 31.95 ± 3.71 Dry 28.06 ± 1.40 8.12 ± 1.06 6.02 ± 1.26 34.58 ± 3.71

Annual 28.76 ± 1.51 8.06 ± 0.69 5.91 ± 1.21 33.73 ± 5.14

4A Punta Ycacos Wet 29.89 ± 0.69 8.04 ± 0.78 5.81 ± 1.14 33.37 ± 2.29 Dry 27.90 ± 1.31 8.16 ± 0.81 6.19 ± 1.47 35.11 ± 2.19

Annual 28.60 ± 1.48 8.11 ± 0.41 6.06 ± 1.37 32.70 ± 5.33

4B Middle Snake Caye Wet 29.82 ± 0.71 8.04 ± 0.80 5.82 ± 1.19 33.36 ± 2.56 Dry 27.91 ± 1.27 8.17 ± 1.02 6.07 ± 1.45 35.13 ± 3.40

Annual 28.57 ± 1.43 8.13 ± 0.34 5.99 ± 1.36 34.49 ± 5.37

4C East Snake Caye Wet 29.79 ± 0.75 8.25 ± 0.17 5.54 ± 0.14 34.20 ± 1.10 Dry 27.80 ± 1.55 8.43 ± 0.27 5.94 ± 0.48 35.15 ± 1.16

Annual 28.98 ± 1.62 8.00 ± 0.27 5.87 ± 1.33 34.50 ± 5.42

a Wet season = Jun., Jul., Aug., Sept. Dry season = Oct., Nov., Dec., Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May b DO = dissolved oxygen c PPT = parts per thousand

Rio Grande Hen and Chick

34 34 32 32 30 30 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Wilson Caye Moho/Stuart Caye

34 34 32 32 30 30 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 West Snake Caye East Snake Caye

)

(

34 34

r 32 32

t 30 30

r 28 28 e 26 26

p 24 24

e 22 22 T 20 20 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Deep River Punta Ycacos

34 34 32 32 30 30 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Golden Stream Middle Snake Caye

34 34 32 32 30 30 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Year Year

Figure 2. Time series graphs of temperature at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015).

Rio Grande Hen and Chick 12 12 10 10 8 8

6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Wison Caye Moho/Stuart Caye 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 West Snake Caye East Snake Caye

12 n 12

g 10 10

x ) 8 8

O L

d g 6 e 6

( l 4 o 4

s 2 i 2

D 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Deep River Punta Ycacos 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Golden Stream Middle Snake Caye

12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Year Year

Figure 3. Time series graphs of DO at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015).

Rio Grande Hen and Chick 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Wilson Caye Moho/Stuart Caye 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 West Snake Caye East Snake Caye 60 60 50 50

)

p 40

(

y 30 30

i l 20 20 a S 10 10 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 JDul-e04epN oRvi-0v7erFeb-11 Jun-14 Punta Ycacos 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Golden Stream Middle Snake Caye 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Year Year

Figure 4. Time series graphs of salinity at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015).

Rio Grande Hen and Chick 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Wilson Caye Moho/Stuart Caye

14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 West Snake Caye East Snake Caye 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8

H p 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Deep River Punta Ycacos

14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Golden Stream Middle Snake Caye

14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Jan-98 Apr-01 Jul-04 Nov-07 Feb-11 Jun-14 Year Year

Figure 5. Time series graphs of pH at the ten water quality sampling sites in PHMR, Belize (January 1998–December 2015).

Table 2. Spearman’s rho correlation analysis of all water quality parameters and precipitation for Port Honduras Marine Reserve (PHMR), Belize 1998–2015. ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05.

Temp DO Salinity Precipitation pH

Temp 1.000 -.097** -.199** .356** -.117**

DO 1.000 .024 -.048 .151**

Salinity 1.000 -.512** .199**

Precipitation 1.000 -.006 pH 1.000

Table 3. Monotonic trends in DO, temperature, salinity derived with the seasonal Kendall test for 10 sites of Port Honduras Marine Reserve (PHMR), Belize 1998–2015. Slope significance is indicated with asterisks.

Site number Site name Parameter Sen's slope 1A Rio Grande Temperature 0.009

DO -0.007

Salinity 0.009 2A Golden Stream Temperature -0.018

DO 0.101*

Salinity -0.158 2B Hen and Chick Temperature -0.025

DO 0.075

Salinity 0.108* 2C Moho/Stuart Caye Temperature -0.026

DO 0.151**

Salinity 0.047 3A Deep River Temperature -0.018

DO 0.101*

Salinity 0.301*** 3B Wilson Caye Temperature 0.061

DO 0.096**

Salinity 0.173 3C West Snake Caye Temperature -0.071

DO 0.144*

Salinity 0.255* 4A Punta Ycacos Temperature -0.007

DO 0.104**

Salinity 0.070* 4B Middle Snake Caye Temperature 0.023

DO 0.157***

Salinity 0.185** 4C East Snake Caye Temperature -0.024 DO 0.121** Salinity 0.116* (* = p < 0.05, ** = p < 0.01, and *** = p < 0.001)

The human population percent change was calculated between 1998 and 2017: nationally

Belize’s population increased 62.63%, Toledo’s population increased 61.93% and Punta Gorda’s population increased 22.71% (Table 4). The 2017 human population density of the districts

Toledo, Orange Walk, Stann Creek, Cayo, Corozal, and Belize were 7.9/km2, 10.7/km2,15.6/km2,

16.9/km2, 24.5/km2, and 25.7/km2, respectively. Nationally, the population density in 2017 was

16.1/km2 and the town of Punta Gorda’s population density was 14/km2.

Table 4. Summary of Belize human population changes and population density in Belize, the six districts of Belize, and the town of Punta Gorda located within the Toledo District.

Year Population Change % Population density Country Total 2017 387,879 62.63 16.1/km2

1998 238,500 Toledo 2017 36,695 61.94 7.9/km2

1998 22,660 Corozal 2017 47,437 45.92 24.5/km2 1998 32,510 Stann Creek 2017 42,230 76.22 15.6/km2 1998 23,965 Orange Walk 2017 50,968 28.80 10.7/km2 1998 39,570 Belize 2017 117,196 66.58 25.7/km2 1998 70,355 Cayo 2017 93,352 88.82 16.9/km2

1998 5,010 Punta Gorda town 2017 6,148 22.71 14/km2

1998 5,010

4. DISCUSSION

4.1 Water Quality Results Discussion

The seasonal patterns visible for temperature, salinity and precipitation were anticipated because strong correlations often exist between precipitation, temperature and salinity in tropical marine environments that experience wet seasons (Schaffelke et al. 2012). The seasonal analysis highlights the strong influence of season as a major source of variation in the surface coastal water quality of PHMR, an important consideration for addressing future climate change variability. Global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems, with possible nonlinear shifts in water quality predicted (Harley et al. 2006; Hoegh-Guldberg and

Bruno 2010). For example, dramatic changes in season as a result of climate change coupled with other anthropogenic influences could accelerate water quality degradation with other impacts unknown (Lotze et al. 2006). The unique conditions created from these shifts have the potential to impact spawning, growth and recruitment of many fish species (Meals et al. 2011).

However, MPAs are increasingly recognized as important buffers to enhance the resilience of marine ecosystems to human impacts (Agardy 1994; Gaines et al. 2010; Edgar et al. 2014).

Although climate change has the potential to adversely affect water resources, the results of the long-term trend analyses demonstrate relatively stable water quality. Six sites showed increasing salinity trends and eight sites showed increasing DO trends. These sites are mostly clustered in the northern latitudes of PHMR. DO is one of the most critical components of water quality and low levels are known to cause harmful problems to fisheries (Heisler et al. 2008).

The examination of DO in this study showed no hypoxic (< 2.0 mg/l) or anoxic (0.2 mg/l)

conditions at any time for any of the sampling sites (Diaz and Rosenberg 2008). On the contrary, the increasing DO values represent an improvement of water quality. This assessment contrasts with other studies of global trends of coastal water quality that generally identify decreasing marine DO and degradation of water quality in coastal environments (Mallin et al.

2000; De Jonge et al. 2002; Joos et al. 2003; Brodie et al. 2008; Diaz and Rosenberg 2008). The lack of directional temperature trends for all sites over the 17-year study period implies little change in optimal physiological ranges for fishes and low impacts on associated biological processes. This consistency bodes well for stakeholders such as sport fishing guides who rely on predictable environmental conditions. The relatively stable water quality of PHMR during the study period is likely associated with several factors. The absence of beaches, limited coastal development, and low population density of the Toledo District relative to the rest of Belize are probable explanations contributing to the lack of water quality degradation.

4.2 Human Population Discussion

Belize is a country known for its relatively small population with limited development compared to neighboring countries Guatemala and Honduras. From 1998 – 2017 Belize experienced a 62.63% increase in human population nationally while the district of Toledo experienced a 61.94% increase. Although the increase in human population of the Toledo distinct appears substantial, it is the fourth slowest growth rate among the six districts of Belize

(Table 4). Additionally, the Toledo district is the third largest district in Belize (4,410/km2) but is the least densely populated district (7.9/km2). This information provides context that stresses the relatively rural nature and low economic status of southern Belize in relation to other areas of

Belize. It can be inferred that lower population density is linked to less human activity, resulting in less human pressure exerted on the environment and natural resources in southern Belize. This

information aligns with the relatively stable water quality results of PHMR during the study period and identifies human population growth as a low threat to water quality at present.

Human population growth is inevitable worldwide and Toledo may not remain the least densely populated district if growth continues at its current rate, especially as immigration rates from Guatemala and Honduras continue to rise (SIB 2017). When population growth increases at an unsustainable rate in a short time period there are unavoidable environmental consequences

(Vitousek et al. 1997; BTB 2011). Moreover, human population density has been noted as one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to the loss of biodiversity globally (Forester and Machlist

1996). Belize must be mindful of unsustainable population growth and the subsequent ecological impacts.

4.3 Water Quality Field Observations

Field observations of PHMR, the Rio Grande River and several conversations with local community members were integrated to better understand the region’s water resources. The Rio

Grande watershed is utilized by a diverse group of communities including Mayan villagers,

Mennonite and Amish communities, Creole tour guides, and non-Belizean tour guides, among others. The Xucaneb group, a group of Mayan villagers based in the upland community San

Pedro de Columbia, focuses on reforesting the Rio Grande riparian buffer zone and promoting sustainable agricultural practices with minimal fertilizer use. These efforts can reduce runoff and preserve natural vegetation in erosion-prone areas. The Mayan communities of San Pedro de

Columbia and San Miguel use the Rio Grande on a daily basis for cooking and washing as visible by the frequent domestic use stations of flat stones located along the banks of the river

(Fig. 6). Many villagers prefer to use the river than the potable water in their homes because it is a free and open access resource. Although the Mayan residents use detergents and soaps with

non-biodegradable components that could negatively impact downstream water quality, in general, they value the river as evidenced through two conversations with community members.

One San Miguel resident stated, “People here love the river. It is part of their home.” A second

Mayan community member stated, “The River is part of the community. I bathe in it and wash clothes in it every day. The river is life here.”

Figure 6. Photo of flat stones used for domestic use along the Rio Grande River by the San Pedro de Colombia Mayan village.

Unfortunately, the Rio Grande watershed is also undergoing substantial changes from anthropogenic activity downstream closer to PHMR and the town of Punta Gorda. Of high concern is the “dump,” an unregulated, land-based municipal waste site located less than 1 km

from the Rio Grande River (Fig. 7). A local Punta Gorda tour guide who frequently boats tourists up the Rio Grande River to spot wildlife stated, “the Rio Grande River is nasty.” He speculated that the dump site had already contributed to increased pollution of the Rio Grande River. High precipitation, especially during the rainy season, can lead to substantial runoff increasing the risk of contaminants from the dumpsite flowing overland or subsurface directly into the Rio Grande

River and PHMR. The Rio Grande River plume can extend 4-6 km off the coast during the wet season, further highlighting the connectivity of marine-terrestrial interactions and the potential negative impacts on offshore marine habitat and species (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999).

The importance of appropriate management of upland terrestrial areas is critical to preserving water quality of marine and coastal ecosystems. The sensitivity of marine water quality to terrestrial land use land cover changes has been highlighted in many studies (Rogers

1990; Fabricius 2005; Burke et al. 2011; Maina et al. 2013; Ramos-Scharrón and LaFevor 2016).

Globally, coral reef ecosystems, such as those in PHMR, are highly sensitive to changes in water quality with changes in sediment loads and water temperature known to damage or kill coral species (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007). A decline in water quality from land-based runoff has been linked to degradation of the coastal ecosystems of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia (Brodie et al. 2012; Schaeffelke et al. 2012; McCulloch et al. 2013). In addition to impacts on coral reef species, degradation of marine water quality from human stressors is one of the leading causes of the decline of coastal fish species (Sprague 1994; Gilliers et al. 2004; Lotze et al. 2006). PHMR is the receiving area of all the human activities occurring in the upland areas. The easterly flowing currents that characterize PHMR during the wet season have the potential to carry terrestrial-based sediments and contaminants west to the offshore coral reef ecosystems. Overall,

it’s vital to recognize that actions need to address the connections between land, rivers, estuaries and marine environments to protect the marine ecosystems of PHMR.

Figure 7. Photo of the Punta Gorda unregulated municipal waste site, “the dump,” located less than 1 km from the Rio Grande River.

4.4 Current and Future Water Quality Threats

Current and future threats to the water quality of PHMR from land-based and marine- based sources were identified through field observations and research. Terrestrial threats include the municipal waste site, coastal development, and agricultural runoff. A study evaluating sediment and nutrient delivery from human activities to the entire Gulf of Honduras estimated

that 80% of sediment and over half of all nitrogen and phosphorous originate in Honduras, with relatively minor contributions from Belize (Burke and Sugg 2006). Expanding agricultural activities in Belize as well as Honduras and Guatemala will increase the influx of sediment, nutrients and pollutants from freshwater sources entering the marine systems (Thattai et al.

2003). Land-use modeling scenarios incorporating lax regulation predicted a 10% increase in nutrient delivery and a 13% increase in sediment delivery by 2025 for the Gulf; whereas scenarios with favorable environmental policies and sustainable development predicted a 5% reduction in nutrient and sediment delivery (Burke and Sugg 2006). This information is promising if environmental regulations are enforced and development proceeds sustainably. In addition, the construction and upgrading of the Southern Highway to the south of Belize that occurred in the last two decades has been both an opportunity and a challenge. There is the potential to increase economic development and create a greater influx of tourists to southern

Belize. However, although the surrounding terrestrial and coastal region is not used intensively by humans at present, human activities related to increased tourism infrastructure and agricultural expansion should be monitored to prevent unsustainable development.

A review of literature provided a more in-depth awareness of marine-based water quality threats including proposed tourism infrastructure development on West Snake Caye, shrimp farming, offshore oil development, and cruise ship tourism A proposed development plan for

West Snake Caye, a relatively untouched caye centrally located in the Conservation Zone of

PHMR, threatens the future success of adjacent fisheries habitat (Fig. 8) (TIDE 2016). West

Snake Caye, and the flats around it, are popular destinations for sport fisherman and guides from

Punta Gorda. Development plans for West Snake Caye should be cautious moving forward as changes could potentially result in complex and catastrophic water quality issues. Another

potential threat to water quality in the region is aquaculture. Shrimp farming is an activity that occurs directly north of PHMR near the Town of Monkey River and a recent study in the

Placencia Lagoon revealed negative ecological impacts on coastal water quality (Ledwin 2010).

Increased nutrient loading combined with coastal development resulted in substantial decreases in seagrass distribution and overall water quality degradation in the region (Ledwin 2010).

Figure 8. Photo of waters surrounding West Snake Caye, the location of proposed tourism infrastructure in PHMR.

Industrial pressure to establish offshore oil drilling and increased cruise ship tourism are challenges Belizean authorities have faced for several years (Gould 2017). Although these economic opportunities appear more financially lucrative, they threaten the long-term sustainability of Belize’s ecotourism industry (Gould 2017). Belizean authorities should proceed with caution to ensure that PHMR and other areas of Belize remain healthy for continued ecotourism opportunities.

The primary objectives of the MPAs of Belize are to conserve biodiversity, protect commercially valuable species and manage tourism and recreation (Cho 2005). Marine and coastal tourism activities in PHMR are essential for the economic and social well-being of the local communities as they represent a major source of livelihood. The challenge faced by southern Belize and many ecotourism destinations internationally, is adequately managing tourism activities while also preserving ecological processes that sustain healthy ecosystems

(McMinn 1997). Belize has been rooted in ecotourism practice since the inception of tourism in the 1980s and 1990s. Whereas other areas of Belize have experienced environmental consequences from uncontrolled development, ineffective management and improperly enforced regulation of natural resources, PHMR can persist as a highly valuable economic resource for southern Belize (Burford et al. 2003; Cherrington et al. 2010; Steinberg 2015).

4.5 Limitations

This study provides a baseline analysis of the water quality field parameters DO, pH, temperature and salinity of PHMR but is by no means a comprehensive analysis of the region’s water resources and the results should be interpreted with caution. There are several important limitations of this study and gaps in the dataset that important critical to discuss for improved future research. First, data collection over the 17-year study period was completed by various organizations and individuals including community research assistants, or citizen scientists. The likelihood of human error and inconsistencies with data collection and measurements is increased, leading to uncertainty regarding the quality of data collected. Additionally, there are several large gaps in the span of data collection from 2001-2003, 2003-2004, and 2006-2007 clearly visible in the time series graphs (Fig. 2, Fig. 3, Fig. 4, Fig.5). These holes in time limit statistical confidence of the results. For example, data collection did not document water quality

changes pre- and post- Hurricane Iris, a natural event that struck southern Belize in late 2001. It’s possible other natural or anthropogenic events occurred during these gaps in the dataset and water quality changes were not monitored. Lastly, it’s possible that the spatial extent of the study sites excluded important areas of changing water quality such as the northern limits of the MPA closer to the shrimp farms and intensively-used agricultural lands or closer to the Rio Grande

River mouth.

4.6 Recommendations

This study analyzed the surface water field parameters of temperature, DO, salinity and pH fairly consistently over a 17-year period with results showing general stability. Future studies monitoring these same parameters would verify and extend information relevant to this study.

The scope of this study was surface water, however, integrating data from multiple depths would provide more detailed information on the oceanographic processes of the entire water column.

MPAs are unique economically, ecologically, socially and politically, making it difficult to share lessons between them. However, several water quality parameters not included in this study are frequently incorporated in other tropical marine water quality studies.

Karydis and Kitsioiu state the mandatory variables for background information in a coastal water quality monitoring program are temperature, salinity, water transparency, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, silicate, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, nitrite and phytoplankton (2013). Other coastal studies in tropical environments

+ focus specifically on measuring dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO3 , NO2 , NH4 and SRP) and chlorophyll-a as strong indicators of eutrophication (Singh et al. 2004; Herrera-Silveira et al.

2009; Sebastia et al. 2013). Coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to eutrophication from nutrient-rich freshwater inputs and nutrient concentration is a frequently monitored parameter.

The Great Barrier Reef System, an area risk of degradation from pesticide contaminants and runoff, has a well-established water quality monitoring program that measures water temperature, salinity, turbidity, and nutrient, carbon, chlorophyll and suspended sediment concentrations. Currently, the Australian government is working on a Reef 2050 Long-Term

Sustainability Plan, a 35-year action plan for managing the reef with improving water quality as a key theme to increase resiliency to climate change impacts (Reef 2050). The plan will focus heavily on improving upland management practices as a strategy to meet water quality targets, specifically reducing dissolved inorganic nitrogen, sediments, phosphorous and nitrogen.

For PHMR, although upland Mayan subsistence farmers use few nutrient fertilizers on their lands, citrus and banana plantations in the Monkey River watershed operate at a much larger scale and use greater quantities of fertilizers. Consequently, the risk of negative impacts on downstream nutrient concentration is increased. TIDE previously measured nutrient concentrations of PHMR but these data were collected inconsistently. Monitoring nutrient concentrations of phosphorous and nitrogen would greatly enhance the understanding of the potential risk of excess nutrients on water quality of PHMR. Further understanding of the agricultural practices of the upland region, specifically the Monkey River watershed, is needed to determine the urgency and locations of monitoring nutrients in PHMR. Preliminary assessments of water quality near intensively used agricultural lands and shrimp farms would help determine principle sources of nutrients and assist in developing future nutrient monitoring sites.

In addition to nutrient monitoring near Monkey River, close monitoring of water quality for hazardous constituents such as heavy metals and volatile organic compounds, near the Rio

Grande dump site would be valuable to understand if water quality has been impacted by this unregulated landfill. A 2014 study assessed the impact of contaminants from the Punta Gorda

dump site on the Rio Grande River using stable isotope and trace elemental analysis of aquatic species (Halvorson and Foley 2014). A follow-up assessment of this study would be valuable because the dump site’s spatial extent has expanded substantially since 2014. Improving municipal waste management and preventing contamination of the PHMR waters should be a priority for local authorities to sustain the health of the ecosystems of PHMR.

In situ data collection can be limited spatially and temporally and remote sensing analyses are an increasingly common approach for water quality studies (De Jonge et al. 2002;

Goetz et al. 2008). Remote sensing techniques can provide greater spatial coverage at a fine resolution with high temporal frequency compared to measuring water quality field parameters.

Coastal water quality evaluations have used imagery from the satellite MODIS to measure chlorophyll-a and imagery from Landsat TM and ETM+ to measure turbidity and sea surface temperature with fairly high accuracy (Vargas et al. 2003; Erkkilä and Kalliola 2004; Venegas et al. 2008; Devlin et al. 2015). The use of satellite imagery for marine water quality is likely to become more common as the application of remote sensing grows. Utilizing this approach for

PHMR would provide insight on sediment loads during wet and dry season for the easterly flowing currents as well as more detailed information on chlorophyll-a, a variable directly associated with algal growth and excess nutrients. Remote sensing analyses could also provide valuable information on the land use land cover change of the surrounding watersheds.

In addition to remote sensing, modeling river discharge is also a cost-effective method of analysis. Several studies have evaluated discharge of southern Belize including the ICRAN-

MAR into the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (Heyman and Kjerfve 1999, Thattai et al.

2003, Ezer et al. 2005; Burke and Sugg 2006). Future water quality studies would benefit from incorporating annual flux models from previous studies to provide additional information on

freshwater inputs, frequency of sediment and nutrient loads and the spatial extent of currents.

Tropical marine environments have complex hydrological processes and more information is needed to increase the understanding of the area’s water resources and understand measurements this study failed to examine. Overall, remote sensing and modeling analyses minimize the need for standardized in situ data collection protocols and have the potential to evaluate water quality changes and land use land cover changes of a large spatial extent.

4.7 Challenges and Opportunities

In general, the goals of MPAs are to spatially organize management for biodiversity conservation, fisheries management, habitat restoration and tourism development (Agardy 1994).

Although these objectives offer opportunities for PHMR, there are many challenges to achieving them. Uncertain and limited funding is a common long-term challenge for all of the MPAs in

Belize, which are often funded by grants and international private donors (Cho 2005). Water quality monitoring of PHMR by TIDE ceased in 2015 as a result of inadequate funding. Many of

TIDE’s research and outreach programs are now inactive as the organization shifts to focus more on restoring finances through their “Ridge to Reef” ecotourism activities. The securing of sustainable financing for PHMR management is one of the next major obstacles.

In addition to a lack of financial resources, there is also the issue of a lack of strong governance of PHMR. If co-management is not achieved with TIDE, all responsibility will fall to the Belize Fisheries Department, an entity already strained by minimal resources. The issue of governance and legislation enforcement is a common struggle of MPAs in tropical developing countries worldwide (Christie and White 2007; Wilkinson and Salvat 2012). Various models of governance for MPAs exist including top-down, bottom-up, co-management, and traditional management approaches (Christie and White 2007). Whereas MPAs in the U.S. are typically

implemented through a top-down approach by the higher-level government authorities, Belize typically incorporates a bottom-up community approach to marine resource management

(Wilkinson and Salvat 2012). Through this approach, managers engage local communities to raise awareness about conservation goals and ultimately promote a connection between community members and the MPA. Bottom-up, also known as community-based management, frequently evolves into co-management with resource users and decision makers. This scenario occurred with PHMR, when TIDE grew and evolved to co-manage PHMR with the Belize

Fisheries Department. Co-management creates a network of governance and is argued by several authors as the ideal strategy to complex marine management because it shares power between both government and local resource users (Rudd et al. 2003; Wilkinson and Salvat 2012; Gray

2016). This network of governance approach leverages partnerships and also cultivates trust between fishers, scientists and policy makers (Gray 2016). Combining local knowledge and scientific knowledge through cross-disciplinary collaboration has been argued as the key to the success of MPAs regardless of the number of fish in the MPA or the number of fishermen who support it (Christie and White 2007; Gray 2016).

Engaging community members in upland areas is also part of Belize’s Integrated Coastal

Zone Management Authority Institute (CZMAI). This national entity was established in 1998 and emphasizes the marine-terrestrial connectivity for marine and coastal preservation efforts.

CZMAI aims to engage governments for proper resource management but does not include any regulatory activity. Previously, TIDE focused heavily on engaging upland community members to promote stewardship of the marine resources through their “ridge to reef” management approach. However, the cutbacks in their funding have also limited their community engagement, education and outreach efforts. A gap now exists in the community for education of

marine resource conservation, sustainable land management and overall land-sea connectivity.

The human dimension of marine conservation is a key component. Understanding what motivates individuals to engage in water quality actions and adapt their behavior for the protection of water quality is vital for long-term water quality protection. MPAs in Belize have been associated with increased economic benefits from increases in commercially valuable species as well as ecotourism revenue (Cho 2005). Continuing to emphasize the high economic value of PHMR will be one of the most effective techniques for continued support from and engagement with community members and government officials.

The issue of human impacts is further complicated because the extent of human impact extends beyond Belize’s authority to include the neighboring countries of Guatemala and

Honduras (Foley 2012). Therefore, the success of Belize’s efforts to continue to protect and preserve PHMR is also reliant on international collaboration among these nations.

Cultural tensions between Central American immigrants and Belizeans is an issue and attention to social dynamics is important to prevent conflicts. Illegal fishing in PHMR by Guatemalan and

Honduran fishers is one such issue of high concern (Foley 2012). These fishermen typically sell

Belizean marine products outside of Belize, producing no benefit for Belizean communities and generating resentful sentiments (Foley 2012). This conflict returns to the tragedy of the commons and the issue of resource competition and degradation in marine common areas. Concern over this controversy resulted in a managed access fisheries program, piloted in PHMR in 2011.

Managed access limits access to the marine commons to the General Use Zone with licenses required for “traditional” Belizean fishermen only and recordings of catch limits (McDonald et al. 2017). In 2017 this program was adopted at a national scale and now requires 2,800 fishermen

to obtain licenses and accurately record their catches (McDonald et al. 2017). Belize is one of the first countries to pioneer this innovative approach to fisheries management.

The degradation of tropical coastal resources is a combined result of human activities, increasing population, globalization and economic pressures (Wilkinson and Salvat 2012).

PHMR like other MPAs, is an important tool, and if the tool is used wisely, will continue to generate benefits for marine ecosystems and human communities. The goal of MPAs in Belize are to support the allocation, sustainable use and development of resources for the benefit of all.

However, tradeoffs between conservation performance and economic welfare performance of

MPAs is common (Hargreaves-Allen et al. 2017; Gill et al. 2017). Belize strives to be a leader in marine resource management, promoting integrated and adaptive management approaches that seek to identify and respond to changes to maximize outcomes. Planning for overall long-term ecological, economic and social resilience can involve conflicting interests and the interplay of social and ecological goals will continue to create both challenges and opportunities for Belize.

The preservation of water quality of PHMR represents a unique opportunity for the Belizean government and local organizations to continue conservation efforts of a highly valuable MPA.

There are several major challenges which must be confronted for long-term success of PHMR and important questions for Belize to consider continuing to be strong advocates of their natural resources. Belizean authorities need to think about ways to engage the community, seek alternative funding for conservation and management efforts, increase partnerships at multiple levels and heed caution with regards to unsustainable development and population growth to prevent degradation of water quality of PHMR.

A new PHMR management plan is currently underway to update the 2011–2016 management plan to conserve habitat, coastal and marine resources, human communities and the

economy. The information from this study highlights attainable goals that would benefit the new management plan. The recommended priority research goals for water quality monitoring of

PHMR should be cost-effective remote sensing analyses of surrounding watersheds and PHMR coastal waters and in situ nutrient and contaminant monitoring near areas of high risk such as sites within the Monkey River watershed drainage area, sites near shrimp farming aquaculture and sites near the Punta Gorda municipal waste site. Additionally, Belizean authorities need to think about establishing new, or leveraging existing, partnerships at local and international levels as a way seek alternative sources of funding for monitoring efforts and continue stakeholder community engagement and that will ultimately benefit conservation and economic objectives that protect water quality of PHMR.

5. CONCLUSION

The purpose of this study was to understand seasonal and long-term trends in water quality of PHMR coupled with human population dynamics at the local, regional and national level. Very few studies documenting long-term changes in water quality of MPAs exist, particularly in tropical, developing countries such as Belize. The results of the water quality investigation represent a baseline of the physico-chemical parameters of temperature, salinity,

DO and pH of surface water quality of ten sites of PHMR, Belize (1998–2015). Measurements of these water quality variables facilitate a broad understanding of mechanisms that can potentially impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Results of the temporal analysis showed strong seasonal patterns for all of the water quality variables, with correlations between salinity, temperature, and precipitation. Long-term increasing trends in DO were evident at eight sites and increasing trends in salinity were evident at six sites, demonstrating overall stable water quality conditions of

PHMR. The analysis of human population changes for Belize (1998–2017) at the local, regional and national scales showed a substantial increase in the Toledo district’s population but relatively low population density in comparison to other more populated districts of Belize. As a result, human population growth cannot be considered a critical threat to water quality of PHMR at present. Moreover, other threats to water quality were identified from both marine- and land- based sources including impacts from offshore oil development, cruise ship tourism, West Snake

Caye tourism infrastructure, shrimp farming, agricultural runoff, the unregulated municipal waste site, and coastal development.

Changes in water quality on a temporal scale are natural and essential components of complex marine ecosystems, however, human impacts threaten the long-term sustainability of water resources in the region. This study provides useful baseline information for certain water quality variables but does not include other potentially valuable parameters that might provide a more comprehensive analysis. Future research would greatly benefit from integrating cost- efficient remote sensing analyses linking terrestrial and marine environments as well as site specific in situ nutrient and contaminant data collection. Preventing the degradation of PHMR’s water resources will also require strengthened partnerships across local and international scales combined with increased community engagement to create a strong network of stewardship, governance and ultimately management. These recommendations have the potential to facilitate more effective management of PHMR with limited resources. Additionally, marine managers need to continue to communicate the economic value of water resources to policy makers to generate strong conservation-oriented legislation. In Belize, the value of the coastal and marine environments is tremendous and the interdependence of the economy, tourism industry and biologically rich natural resources is complex. However, there is no simple solution to address the needs of the economy, communities and ecosystems. Belize strives to achieve conservation objectives through their Integrated Coastal Zone Management Institute, the managed fisheries access program and other natural resource-focused efforts more than many other countries in

Central America but will continue to face evolving obstacles related to sustainable financing and inadequate resources for environmental management. The success of PHMR is strongly linked to the support of the local community and Belizean authorities to continue to protect the ecological and economic integrity of PHMR.

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