Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival Report

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

Introduction

A very warm welcome to the Cleeve Racing’s 2016 Cheltenham Yankee… we hope it provides you with plenty of excitement and a great return on any investment you make! Every season we have tilt at winning a big pot for a very small outlay, last season we got close with Cole Harden winning at 33/1… Arctic Fire came second in the Champion Hurdle and although we gave Coneygree at 33/1 for the Gold Cup antepost, unfortunately we didn’t put him in the Yankee…. still we got back double what we invested and can’t complain. This year we have placed our Cheltenham Yankee and we think every selection has a great chance of at least placing and if the all win… well the return to a £1 perm is a massive £15,390.25. Every year we get a few emails from people wanting to know what a Yankee is so before we look at the selections here’s a brief description of what a Yankee is for those who don’t know... A Yankee consists of 4 selections (a, b, c and d) taking part in different events, that are permed to produce 11 bets, comprising… 1 x Accumulator - a x b x c x d 4 x trebles - a x b x c, a x b x d, b x c x d and a x c x d 6 x doubles - a x b, a x c, a x d, b x c, b x d and c x d.

You may choose to place a Lucky 15 that includes 4 singles ie. 15 bets but has a return with a single winner. The total stake for the bet is the multiple of the stake for each perm… so a 50p yankee is 11 x 0.50p = £5.50, a 50p ew yankee is 11 x 0.50p ew = £11.00. N.B. We are advising this as an each way Yankee.

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

Now on to the selections analysis…. For each selection we have given our top rated horses for the race based on our unique algorithm and then our in depth analysis of why we have chosen the particular selection.

Selection 1 Tuesday 15th March 2016 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1 Class 3) (4yo+) Selection: Altior @ 5/1 general My ratings are as follows: 1. Altior 2. Buveur d’Air 3. Min 4. Moon Racer The opening race of the festival and I can almost hear the deafening roar and shouts of “dere dey go!” as the tapes go up on four days of the very best jump racing in the world gets underway. Will this be another Willie Mullins’ masterclass as it has been in the last two years’ a la Vautour and Douvan with the stables hot pot this year being Min who is a very, very short priced favourite (saying that Cleeve’s NH Ten to Follow flagged him up at the start of the season at a tasty 33/1). The burning question is…. is Min a worthy favourite? His position at the head of the market (7/4 biggest, only evens with BetVictor) is all about his potential and what he has shown at home, combined with the record of connections in the race and bookmakers running scared of massive antepost liabilities as a result of multiples placed Mullins hotpots. He is no value based on track form although has been impressive in two runs this season winning both with ease; however with the exception of Gurteen who won

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

a decent race next time out he hasn’t beaten that much and pretty much won as a short priced favourite should do. Yanworth was very impressive last time out at Cheltenham, but he looks certain to dodge Min in favour of a crack at the Neptune and I think that is the right choice as he looks like he will improve for the longer trip. Moon Racer, last years’ Champion Bumper winner has not been seen this season and it is difficult to win the Supreme on hurdling debut. Unless David Pipe can fit a run in in the next couple of weeks we might not see Moon Racer at Cheltenham, which is a shame as he is potentially top class. Nicky Henderson has two of the leading fancies here Buveur d’Air and Altior. Buveur d’Air who was backward last year won impressively first time up at Newbury and also won at Huntingdon, which has traditionally proven a kiss of death come Cheltenham (0-101 at the Festival) and this will be a massive, massive step up for him, he’ll do well just to hit the frame and looks poor value. In stark contrast Altior has been very impressive and beat subsequent easy winner Open Eagle by an easy thirteen lengths when last seen running at Kempton on Boxing Day, posting a time a second faster than Faugheen did later in the day! Visually he was mightily impressive after having to be asked a question coming into the straight and looking in trouble. But he found plenty for Nico de Boinville and in the end won hands and heels by an ever increasing margin. A couple of things that will also hold him in good stead here are his slick hurdling and as importantly he has already shown he handles the course when he won here back in November in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle. His current price gives us the luxury of playing each way just in case Min does happen to be Champion the Wonder Horse in disguise! If he isn’t the biggest danger to Altior it may actually come from what would at first glance appear to be the Mullin’s second string Yorkhill who runs in the colours of Graham and Andrea Wylie. He was a top bumper has run very well and remains unbeaten in 4, he stepped up impressively from his maiden to take the Grade one Tolworth Hurdle although it is worth noting that winners of that race have a very poor record in this. His price (12/1 biggest, 6/1 shortest) reflects

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

doubts on which race he lines up for but I’m pretty sure he goes here and he won’t be 12/1 on the day for sure!

Selection 2

Tuesday 15th March 2016 - The Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f Selection: The Young Master @ 16/1 general My ratings are as follows: 1. Wakanda 2. The Young Master 3. Annacotty 4. Kings Palace

Although we do not have a complete list of entries for this race yet I am only really interested in two runners Wakanda and The Young Master who have been confirmed as definite runners by connections. The tough Wakanda has been a good horse for Cleeve members this season; out battling the opposition and winning twice. That toughness will stand him in good stead here and the only thing that puts me off selecting him ahead of The Young Master is the fact that he has gone up 16 lbs since the start of the season although undoubtedly tough I’m also concerned that he has had some very tough races this season and may not be fresh enough to win at the Festival. The favourite in the current market is Minella Foru, trained by Edward Harty and he won nicely at Leopardstown at Christmas on terrible ground. As a result he has gone up 12 lbs and I think that coupled with the Cheltenham hill may just find him out in the final stages. His jumping can also be a bit iffy which is not what you need in a tough big field handicap with the race run at Festival pace as it will definitely expose any weaknesses.

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

The Young Master was one of the successes of last season winning 8 races on the spin and improving almost 50 lbs in the process. He ran in the Grade One RSA last year going off a well fancied second favourite, but the occasion seemed to get to him and he went off far too fast… eventually finishing tailed off behind Don Poli. However he is a more mature horse now so should handle all the razzmatazz with more aplomb, and it was good to see Neil Mulholland run him in the Cleeve Hurdle as a final prep for this to protect his chase mark. Neil Mulholland has already won this race with The Druid’s Nephew and curiously he also ran in the Cleeve Hurdle prior to winning at the Festival. I rate Mulholland highly as a trainer and he will be at the top of the tree before long as he seems to get the best out of his horses and knows how to get them to peak. I definitely see The Young Master as a graded chaser in a handicap, and last years experience is to his advantage. I am hoping that Barry Geraghty is booked to ride him on the day as he has a great record on the horse with 3/3 wins and with 4 places and a quarter odds 16/1 looks great value.

Selection 3 Wednesday 17th March 2016 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2 miles Selection: Dodging Bullets @ 12/1 general My ratings are as follows: 1. Sprinter Sacre 2. Dodging Bullets 3. Vautour 4. Special Tiara

Un de Sceaux is the best priced 8/11 favourite and is a horse of immense talent; however he has fallen twice in seven chases which makes his odds on quotes poor value in my view. Saying that he did win last season’s Arkle in a fast time (didn’t

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

look the best Arkle ever) so proves that he definitely handles the course and his jumping looked much more assured at Ascot last time. Sprinter Sacre has the top rating mainly due to his extraordinary exploits of two to three seasons ago. I think he is now about a stone below his top level and although he is still Grade 1 quality I don’t think he will win this – age and regression against him. Vautour looks very unlikely to run in this unless something goes amiss with the favourite. Special Tiara is just below the very top class and has failed to win at Cheltenham in three attempts now managing to place third in this last year. I do not see him placing this time round as the opposition is stronger. Although on the face of it disappointing when 10 lengths behind Top Gamble at the weekend, Dodging Bullets is said by connections to have really come on for the run and expect him to go close. He has had an interrupted preparation and looked well short of race fitness so it was too be expected really .He won this last season and although it is a tougher race this time round he has won in the last three chases he has contested at Grade 1 level so his quality is there for all to see. He is still improving according to my ratings and recent noises from the stable. He is proven at this level and odds of 12/1 against 8/11 for a horse who can make jumping errors is very attractive. My big worry is the form of the Nichols stable which is very in and out.

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

Selection 4

Friday 18th March 2016 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1 CLASS 1) (4yo) 2 miles

Selection: Gibralfaro @ 10/1 general My ratings are as follows: 1. Sceau Royal 2. Footpad 3. Gibralfaro 4. Fixe le Kap

TiaraIvanovich Gorbatov the favourite trained by Joseph O’Brien blotted his copybook in the Spring Hurdle at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago after winning impressively on his hurdling bow. The fact that he finished behind horses he had already brushed aside and has been remarkably firm in the market since suggest connections feel he didn’t give his true running that day and will be back to his best for this. Winning a maiden race comfortably is not the same as winning a race run at the pace of the Triumph Hurdle on a very stiff course and he is certainly no value at all at his current price of 4/1. Next in the market is Fixe le Kap trained by Nicky Henderson who trained the first three home last season. Fixe le Kap has had five hurdle runs winning his last two and was especially impressive winning his last race at Newbury by 28 lengths when eased down. I am unsure as to what he really beat that day and how good he really is, I also think he still looks a bit green so for me he is best left alone. Sceau Royal is trained like our selection by Alan King, who has a good record in the race. Sceau Royal has had seven hurdle runs which is quite a lot statistically for a Triumph Hurdle winner. His last run was at Huntingdon and that as mentioned earlier is usually a kiss of death at the Festival.

Cleeve Racing Cheltenham Festival report

I much prefer stablemate Gibralfaro who has won his only two hurdles to date and showing real stamina which juveniles need for this (despite running a bit free). He has been strongly supported in the last few days (he was 16/1 when I started framing this bet. I am hoping that he will settle better off a fast pace in a big field and can tuck in behind the front three or four prior to making his move coming down the hill. I like his cruising speed between obstacles and if he gets into a rhythm early he will not be far off winning at the end of this race. I am hoping that the strength in the market means Wayne Hutchinson is leaning towards choosing him ahead of Sceau Royal as I think he is one of the best at getting a young horse to perform to it’s best.