Newsletter 2021 Season “Dartmouth” by Grace. THE SHADE OAK NEWSLETTER: 2021 SEASON When Emma announced I was going into ‘Lockdown’ at the end of March I must admit I thought it was a little extreme, as I’m not normally locked away to produce the annual Shade Oak Newsletter until late November. However, I was swiftly made aware that this was a different kind of lockdown that has changed all our lives to a greater or lesser extent. Even when the eagerly- anticipated vaccines and improved treatments are available, its effects on the economy will be significant, as will its impact on the fortunes of horse breeders of all nations. So, much though I would like to pen my usual few words about stallions, mares, foals and the joys of breeding NH horses, before rushing outside to leap on my trusty steed, Sir Francis, to charge across huge hedges and daunting ditches, it just can’t be that easy this year. Instead, I must give whatever insights I can conjure up (sometimes I really don’t know how I do it!) into the implications of several new factors on NH breeding in this country - namely Covid, Brexit and the Great British Bonus. In doing this I will weave an ingenious thread of storyline, so I’m told, that brings them all together such that you will surely recognise not only the wisdom of continuing to produce NH horses but also of using British-based stallions located at - yes, you’re on the ball today - Shade Oak Stud! Here we go… THE EFFECTS OF COVID ON THOROUGHBRED BREEDING: WHY KEEP GOING? Covid almost had a drastic effect on the 2020 covering season falls was not hard to see… when the veterinary authorities initially decreed that vets could pay only emergency visits to studs; and routine scanning of From 2007 to 2009 the aggregate at Tattersalls November Foal mares for covering, post-cover washouts and pregnancy scans Sale fell by 64%, meaning a reduction of almost 10 million did not constitute emergencies. Fortunately for the entire euros entering the bank accounts of NH breeders. From British breeding industry the TBA used its excellent contacts Tattersalls Derby Sale in 2007 to the same sale in 2009 the with DEFRA to gain approval for the continuation of veterinary corresponding fall was 62%, with again a near 10 million euro visits for these purposes, and due to the protocols that were drop in revenues. It was no wonder that breeders began to swiftly introduced by the TBA the authorities withdrew their panic and immediately reduce foal production. initial instructions. “But were they right to do so and would it be right to panic Without this intervention British breeding would have been now?” I hear you ask. in dire straights, whilst nearby countries where no such stance With the benefit of hindsight we can see that the ones that was taken continued merrily on their way. The immediate trusted in their stock after the price crashes of 2008/09, and impact of the TBA’s actions here at home was that Recharge continued to breed NH foals, came out in a better position was not required to step in as a teaser and I did not have to than they were before. By 2010 the median for the Foal Sale employ the fiendishly cunning plan I had devised to cope with had recovered to around 20% above that for the ‘crash year’ the situation - a plan so cunning that even Baldric might not of 2008; and four years later it reached higher levels than ever have come up with it! For all these reasons we owe immense before. The Derby Sale median also recovered rapidly in 2010, gratitude to the TBA. increasing by 33% over its low level of the previous year. Here However, the longer-term effects of Covid on thoroughbred too the recovery continued, again yielding a new record four breeding will be economic rather than of breeding protocols years later – for horses conceived the very next year after the and practicalities. Some businesses have thrived during 2020 ‘Derby Sale Disaster’ of 2009! but many others have suffered serious setbacks, affecting the So the moral is that, whilst there have been falls in breeders’ ability of their owners and managers to buy and race horses. At incomes this year and could well be next, the economy will present, the numbers of horses in training have held up well and recover and demand for foals and stores will recover with it. In big prices continue to be paid for animals regarded as excellent the meantime many breeders will have reduced the number of future prospects, but this does not tell the full story. Medians foals they produce, particularly in Ireland where foal production and averages at 2020 Store Sales fell significantly, particularly is much higher in any case; so the increased demand will be at the less prestigious sales, as owners understandably cut back focussed on considerably fewer foals and this will drive their their investments. This will inevitably feed through into the prices upwards. It happened before and it will happen again; so foal / early yearling sales on which many NH breeders rely my entirely unbiased advice is to stick with breeding so long as for income. Recovery in demand is unlikely to come until the you have a mare worth breeding from in the first place. general economy and businesses affected by Covid restrictions have themselves recovered from the damage done to them. There is another reason why the recovery from whatever lows we encounter should be stronger this time. I mentioned earlier “All very incisive, Hockenhull,” as my old schoolmaster used to that a gradual recovery in foal crop sizes occurred from 2010 say, “and just what I would expect from one of your immense onwards. However, NH crop sizes prior to the 2008 crisis had intellectual abilities. But what exactly does it mean for British ballooned, reaching an all-time high in 2007 (IRE) and 2008 NH breeders, namely your readers, boy?” (GB). Despite the subsequent recovery in prices the number To try to answer that question, let’s look at the last time there of NH/DP foals born in Ireland is still 40% below peak levels, was what economists call an ‘economic correction’ or those of with British production 33% down, in spite of the demands us actually affected by such things a ‘financial crash’, that of of racecourses and bookmakers for an ever-increasing racing 2008. Whileing away the lockdown hours on my computer, as programme. So if those breeders that are either unaware of or I like to do as a relaxing break from re-laying concrete paths, disregard my yuletide words of wisdom decide not to cover trimming hedges and harrowing my canter track, I looked at their mares next year, you could eventually find yourself foal crop sizes and sales prices before and after the 2008 crash. selling or racing your produce against reduced competition in a growing market, which my intensive studies of the law of Initially the story they told gave cause for concern. The number supply and demand tell me is a good place to be. of foals registered as NH or Dual Purpose in Ireland (which typically produces three to four times as many such foals as As a very wise man once said (I think it was one of The Mamas we do) fell by a staggering 52% from 2008 to 2010, thereafter and The Papas): “The darkest hour is just before dawn” - and beginning a gradual recovery. In Great Britain the reduct ion for a variety of reasons it may be a brighter dawn than we dare over this same period was a ‘mere’ 21%. The reason for these to imagine right now. 2021 Season THE EFFECTS OF BREXIT ON THOROUGHBRED BREEDING: WHY GO ABROAD? As you may all be aware, I do like to keep myself thoroughly completed, but won’t be if they haven’t.. abreast of current affairs; and as Brexit is approaching as surely (11) Offer up a silent prayer (or ritual sacrifice if this is as another Government U-turn I thought I owed it to our demanded by your religion) that you’ve got everything clients to inform them of the implications for the movement of right so that somewhere down the line your mare horses to and from Ireland or France, be these foals or stores for doesn’t get held up by some jobsworth (sorry, dedicated Sales or even mares whose owners have for some bizarre reason employee of the EU or UK Government committed to decided to send them to visit stallions in these countries. the enforcement of protocols and regulations for the Accordingly I took a brief break from my domestic duties to harmonisation of international transport of equidiae and participate in something called a ‘webinar’. (These are quite other animals), and worse still forced to leave the lorry the thing at the moment, seminars via the internet in which with her foal for inspection and examination. you can receive helpful instruction on various topics without These measures will be required whether or not we agree leaving the comfort of your own lockdown). This one was a Free Trade Deal (although the prayer bit is optional), entitled ‘Exporting Horses to the EU after Brexit’ or some such since they apply to all movements between the EU and any catchy title, and went through the various simple steps that are ‘third country’. As some EU bureaucrats may rather like to necessary.