Grainwise At Market Master Be Grainwise! A Farmer’s Perspective … by John Stewart, Galahad, (780) 583-2453 By Shelley Wetmore week does not a trend make. Look for Soy Complex September 17, 2010 ……………… volatile trade again next week. Well … it looks like most of Soybeans rocketed higher Friday the province received bouts of frost following strong gains in overnight Wheat the last few days, some areas hit trade. There are rumours that Credit DEC CBOT wheat inched 2½ cents harder than others. Just north of Suisse pumped a billion dollars into the higher to $7.39¼/bu while KCBT wheat , the temperatures market and today’s trade led credence to climbed 9 cents to $7.68¼/bu. DEC dropped down to –7 degrees for a that speculation (see Strategies). MGE wheat fared best of all closing number of hours while just north of Season-ending frost in many parts 16¼ cents higher at $7.73¼/bu. some escaped scraping ice of Western may impact canola The stronger performance in the off windshields. Up in the Peace quality and quantity and was cited as KCBT and MGE markets probably Country, the combines are on a roll. another reason for Friday’s sharp gains. reflects that premium being offered for I don’t think we’re out of the woods Forecasts for a similar frost event in higher quality wheat following yet as weather forecasts continue to Northern China’s soybean producing widespread frost on the Canadian predict rainy periods with lows areas were also supportive and dryness prairies. Ongoing drought in Russia and below zero still forthcoming in in South America fueled the fire. Early other wheat growing areas around the some parts. The central, eastern part yields in Southern US bean growing Black Sea is causing concern that fewer of the province looks like it may areas have been disappointing due to wheat acres may be seeded this fall for have the warmest weather coming drought but the overall crop is thought the 2011 crop. Overhanging the market, up—so far. But, as you know, in to be in excellent condition. however, is the knowledge that global Alberta the weather changes Weekly exports of 668,600 mt were ending stocks, while diminished, are everytime you check on it. Let’s on the low side of expectations. Keep in still more than adequate to meet the just hope for the best. mind, however, just 443,700 mt is world’s needs. needed on a weekly basis to meet The commodity that has Canola current USDA annual sales projections. increased the most thus far has been It appears that canola traders have NOV beans fired 38 cents higher to good quality oats. Throughout the finally realized something that farmers $10.69/bu while OCT meal sailed week, the price has gone up as high have known all along—this crop is late $13.50 higher to $304.70/t. OCT oil as $3.00/bu delivered to either the and very vulnerable to frost. That frost settled .55 cents higher at 41.91/lb. Camrose or Barrhead for later fall hit with a vengeance this morning, deliveries and even as high as Corn ending the growing season in many $3.30/bu for April, delivered to The corn market, which has the areas, leaving canola quality in question. Saskatoon. The thought remains, most bullish fundaments, soared 35 Another frost is expected again tonight. though, “Will there be any good cents/bu higher in the DEC to $5.13/bu, The fact that very little of that canola oats out there?” setting new contract highs. has been harvested is a concern to The actual results of recent Concern that yields are falling well market players (not to mention farmers.) frosts may push off-board feed below even the USDA’s recently Spillover support from soybeans wheat prices down, depending upon revised estimate of 162.5 bu/ac has and a lack of producer selling also the actual damage incurred on gripped the market. Farmer reports from helped push NOV futures a full $22.00 current crops. Many buyers have Illinois (where corn typically produces higher to $480.10/MT. pulled their bids to see what the from 200 to 240 bu/ac) indicate yields Solid Japanese interest and steady results may be. If you’ve signed as low as 100 bu/ac. Although crusher demand were also supportive FPC contracts through the board, production in the Northern corn but a strong Canadian dollar limited you may wish to enquire as to what producing states is expected to improve, further gains. your deductions may be for feed ... there’s no way it can make up for lost Feedgrain production in the heart of the US Cash barley bids remain under cornbelt. Many analysts are now pressure despite a strong corn market. predicting an average yield in the 158 While bids for deferred months are bu/ac area. However, ideas that stronger, early harvest pressure and the rationing due to higher prices is already prospect of high levels of feed wheat are taking place kept the market from keeping a lid on the market. The wild surging even higher. card in all of this is the CWB. It remains 8543 - 75 Avenue This week’s sales figure lend some to be seen just how active they’ll be in Edmonton, Alberta T6C 0G9 credence to that theory, coming in at what is currently a very strong export www.grainwatchdog.com (800) 440-8390 just 584,600 mt versus expectations in This publication may be not be reproduced with- market. DEC barley climbed $2.00 the 800,000 mt area. However, one out the permission of Market Master Ltd. higher to $182.00/MT. Grainwise Week Ending September 17, 2010

Strategies Classifieds A Farmer’s Perspective … by John Stewart, Galahad, Alberta 1999 Hagie High Clearance Sprayer: 1900 hours, front There was a time when agricultural commodity trading mount boom, one owner, loads of extras. Call Rudy was largely the domain of producers and endusers with a Warawa, Mundare, (780) 764-3092. sprinkling of speculators thrown into the mix—those days are Superior T4: 3-drum indent cleaner without scalper, gone. $2,200 OBO. Call Lorne Metz, Edgerton, (780) 755-3745. Today, we have commodity and index funds playing a huge role in the price determination of grains and oilseeds. 2002 For Explorer Sport: 4x4, loaded, 183,000 km, These agricultural commodities are now being treated much $5,300 OBO. Call Lorne Metz, Edgerton, (780)755-3745. like gold in that they are bought strictly as an investment Driven by a little old lady! 2008 Honda CRV, silver, vehicle or as a hedge against inflation. While this trend has leather interior, loaded, 6,000 km, stored in garage, been in the making for sometime, the recent economic $27,000 OBO. Call Stella Chorney, , recession has taken the top off of a lot of baby boomer’s (780) 998-4642. pension funds. These same investors are now looking for ways to recoup those losses in a relatively short period of 6 foot bales: peas or barley or wheat, JD 568 baler, 15,000 to 20,000 bales total. $20 picked up. Call Paul time. And since the stock market is in the doldrums, these Hofer, Ferintosh, (780) 878-4655. funds are out scouring the landscape in search of better returns. Their search has lead them to grains and oilseeds. Stolen! JD 6410 tractor in the Redwater area. If you see They look for the commodity with the greatest profit anything suspicious, please contact Ed Trenchie at (780) potential and jump on board. A short while ago it was wheat, 942-3296. Your assistance would be greatly appreciated! now corn is the flavour of the month. It’s not that there are no fundamentals to back up their investment decisions, after all, we had the Russian drought problems that first stirred the wheat market and now we having extremely disappointing Grants Available corn yields in the US corn-belt. What’s different is how or Alberta’s agriculture producers are encouraged to take should I say the extent to which these markets react to these advantage of the Growing Forward Business Opportunity legitimate concerns. Their actions have made for program to help transform existing operations or pursue new exceptionally volatile trade. ventures to capitalize on changes in the marketplace and There was a time when a 20 cent move in any commodity consumer demands. was big news—now, it’s commonplace and hardly rates a The grant program contributes to a more competitive and mention on the daily closing commentary. Currently, sustainable agriculture industry by helping producers access commodity funds are said to hold a record long position in the expertise to make informed and calculated business decisions corn market, higher even than during the market surge in to achieve strategic new directions. Examples of eligible 2008. There’s also a spillover effect. expenses include market research, opportunity assessments, Higher corn prices tend to drag soybeans and wheat and business and marketing plans for new endeavours. higher in an effort to be competitive when producers begin to Business Opportunity projects are supported on a cost- plan next year’s planting intentions. While it’s a little early in shared basis. Grants cover 75% of eligible expenses for North America to be talking about an acreage battle, there are approved activities and applicants cover 25%; with grants subtle signs of that right now—particularly with beans. If you awarded up to a maximum of $30,000 per applicant. Producer look at the potential bean crop out there and the projected groups may apply to have their project cost-shared at 90% of carryout stocks, it would be hard to make the case for beans in eligible expenses for approved activities and the producer double digits—and yet here we are. groups cover 10% on projects that demonstrate a sector-wide We can debate endlessly whether these mutual funds are benefit and project results are shared with industry. a good thing for grain markets but one thing is for sure— Business Opportunity grants are issued on a first-come, they’re here and probably here to stay—so it’s one more first-served basis, as per program terms and conditions and market reality producers have to contend with. One could limited funding. Producers are encouraged to apply soon to make the case that it’s as important for farmers to keep up on take advantage of the program. what is happening on Wall Street in New York as it is on For more information on Growing Forward and the LaSalle Street in Chicago. Business Opportunity program, including Growing Forward registrations, program terms, conditions, and application Need a Hedging Account? forms, visit www.growingforward.alberta.ca or call the Ag- Info Centre at 310-FARM (3276). Producers will be directed Allen Wigelsworth to an Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development new- Commodity Futures Group / RBC Dominion Securities Inc. (780) 493-7707, Edmonton venture specialist for further application support. [email protected] www.haugwigelsworth.com Grainwise Week Ending September 17

At The Bin Bid Board Prices booked this week (net to the producer) Buyers looking for grain (after brokerage) Grain Price When Producer Grain When Location Barley, 46 lb $2.60 FOB September High Prairie Barley September $3.25 del Labombe Barley, 48 lb $2.60 FOB September Manning Barley September $3.40 del Red Deer Barley, 50 lb $3.01 FOB September Boyle Barley September $3.31 del Olds Barley, 50 lb $3.40 del Red Deer September Ponoka Barley September $3.47 del Barley, 50 lb $2.97 FOB September Boyle Barley Sep-Oct $3.21 del Czar Peas, green $6.00 del Innisfail September St. Albert Barley October $3.45 del Brooks Rye, feed $4.13 del Calgary October Lethbridge Barley Oct-Nov $3.29 del Falher Wheat, milling $4.78 FOB September Canola September $10.74 del Wheat, milling $4.81 FOB September Fort Saskatchewan Canola October $10.54 del Edmonton Wheat, milling $5.11 FOB November Canola October $10.66 del Joffre Wheat, milling $5.06 FOB October Morinville Canola November $10.58 del Sexsmith Wheat, feed $4.84 del Edmonton October Canola February 11 $10.72 del Edmonton Wheat, feed $4.84 del Edmonton October Onoway Canola October 11 $9.85 del Fort Saskatchewan Wheat, feed $4.84 del Edmonton Oct-Nov Flax, milling Oct-Nov $11.00 del Wheat, feed $4.35 FOB September Hanna Oats, feed September $2.25 Edmonton Oats, feed Sep-Oct $2.10 del Lethbridge Oats, #2 CW Sep-Oct $2.41 del Linden Oats, #2 CW October $3.01 del Saskatoon Oats, #2 CW November $2.85 del Camrose Oats, #2 CW January 11 $2.93 del Camrose Oats, #2 CW April 11 $3.29 del Saskatoon Oats, #2 CW October 11 $2.39 del Camrose Peas, feed Sep-Mar 11 $4.50 del Falher Peas, green 5% bleach Oct-Nov $5.94 del Gibbons Peas, yellow Oct-Nov $5.24 del Gibbons Peas, green 5% bleach Oct-Nov $6.00 del Innisfail Peas, green Oct-Nov $6.00 del High Prairie Peas, yellow Oct-Nov $5.15 del Innisfail Rye, #2 CW Nov-Dec $4.18 del Calgary Rye, #2 CW January 11 $4.21 del Calgary Triticale, feed Nov-Dec $3.88 del Calgary Wheat, feed September $4.29 del Irma Wheat, feed 12.5% prt Sep-Oct $4.70 del Lethbridge Wheat, feed 12.5 % prt Oct-Dec $5.94 del Red Deer

Fall Cash Advances Provide Cash Flow and Marketing Flexibility

The CCGA (Canadian Canola Gowers Under the Advance Payment Program, Producers can apply for a Post Harvest Association) is now accepting applications farmers are eligible for a cash advance of Advance through the convenient on-line for the 2010 fall cash advance program. up to $400,000 – $100,000 interest-free system at www.ccga.ca. For those who “The Post Harvest Advance Payment and the remaining $300,000 at competitive prefer to complete their application with Program provides farmers with a cost- interest rates. Post harvest advances for the assistance of a customer service effective source of cash flow to cover fall this crop year are available from the representative, contact the CCGA at 1-866- expenses,” says Rick White, General CCGA until March 1, 2011. 745-2256 to complete a telephone Manager of the CCGA. “It also enhances application. Applications are also be your marketing program because it gives available at many local elevators. farmers greater flexibility to time their oilseed and non-Board grain sales.”