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Uloga Vojske U Arapskim Režimima I Tranzicijama

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Uloga Vojske U Arapskim Režimima I Tranzicijama 12/13/2018 Similarity Report ULOGA VOJSKE U ARAPSKIM REŽIMIMA I TRANZICIJAMA... Similarity Index By: Jelisaveta Blagojević As of: Dec 13, 2018 9:53:16 PM 18% 96,830 words - 679 matches - 254 sources Mode: Similarity Report paper text: UNIVERZITET CRNE GORE FAKULTET POLITIČKIH NAUKA Jelisaveta Blagojević ULOGA VOJSKE U ARAPSKIM REŽIMIMA I TRANZICIJAMA STUDIJA SLUČAJEVA: TUNIS, 9 EGIPAT, BAHREIN, SIRIJA, LIBIJA I JEMEN DOKTORSKA DISERTACIJA Podgorica, 2018 UNIVERZITET CRNE GORE FAKULTET POLITIČKIH NAUKA Jelisaveta Blagojević ULOGA VOJSKE U ARAPSKIM REŽIMIMA I TRANZICIJAMA STUDIJA SLUČAJEVA: TUNIS, 9 EGIPAT, BAHREIN, SIRIJA, LIBIJA I JEMEN DOKTORSKA DISERTACIJA Podgorica, 2018 UNIVERSITY OF MONTENEGRO FACULTY OF 236 POLITICAL SCIENCE Jelisaveta Blagojević THE ROLE OF MILITARY IN ARAB REGIMES AND TRANSITIONS CASE STUDIES: TUNISIA, EGYPT, BAHRAIN, SYRIA, LIBYA AND YEMEN DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Podgorica, 2018 PODACI I INFORMACIJE O DOKTORANDU Ime i prezime Jelisaveta Blagojević Datum i mjesto 95 rođenja 01.01.1987. godine, Niksic, Crna Gora Naziv završenog postdiplomskog studijskog programa i godina završetka Univerzitet Crne Gore, Fakultet političkih nauka, Evropske studije, diploma Master of Science – magistarske studije; novembar 2010. godine, Podgorica. PODACI O MENTORU Titula, ime, prezime, zvanje Prof. dr Srđan Darmanović Naziv univerziteta i organizacione jedinice Univerzitet Crne Gore, Fakultet političkih nauka, Međunarodni odnosi https://app.ithenticate.com/en_us/report/42361456/similarity 1/238 12/13/2018 Similarity Report OCJENA I ODBRANA DOKTORSKE DISERTACIJE Datum prijave teze 15.05.2012. Datum 41 sjednice Senata Univerziteta na kojoj je prihvaćena teza 29.11.2012. Komisija za ocjenu podobnosti teze i kandidata Prof. dr Srđan Darmanović, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Fakultet političkih nauka Podgorica Prof. dr Predrag Simić, Univerzitet u Beogradu, 134 Fakultet političkih nauka Prof. dr Saša Knežević, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Fakultet političkih nauka Podgorica Komisija za ocjenu doktorske disertacije Komisija za odbranu doktorske disertacije Datum odbrane 41 Datum promocije Naziv doktorskih studija: Međunarodni odnosi Naziv disertacije: Uloga vojske u arapskim režimima i tranzicijama. Studija slučajeva: Tunis, Egipat, Bahrein, 9 Sirija, Libija i Jemen REZIME Nemiri, sukobi, rat - negacija normalnih međuljudskih, unutar i vandržavnih odnosa zasnovanih na stabilnosti i miru – postale su ključne riječi za deskripciju razvoja situacija i događaja u zemljama Bliskog istoka i Sjeverne Afrike od kraja 2010. i početka 2011. godine do danas. Politički potresi koji su doveli do zbacivanja režima u Tunisu, Egiptu, Jemenu i Libiji eskalirali su u građanski rat u Siriji koji traje do danas, dok je režim u Bahreinu opstao na vlasti zahvaljujući stranoj vojnoj intervenciji. Početak, tok i rezultat ovih promjena je, u velikoj mjeri, određen pozicijom i ulogom vojske u ovim procesima. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je ispitati koji faktori su determinisali poziciju koju je vojska zauzela u ovim zemljama i to: u Tunisu neutralnu, u Egiptu je stala na stranu protestanata, u Libiji i Jemenu se podijelila na prorežimske i antirežimske snage, u Siriji i Bahreinu ostala lojalna režimu. Primjenom istoriografskog metoda, metoda analiza dostupne literature i dokumentacije, studija slučaja i komparativnog metoda u sklopu denisanog analitičkog okvira, odnosno određivanja nezavisnih varijabli promotivne ili opstruktivne uloge vojske u tranziciji, a time i rezultata tranzicije došli smo do zaključka da ulogu vojske u ovom procesu determiniše njena institucionalna, socijalna, ekonomska i edukativna dimenzija, kao i (ne)intervencija vanjskih sila i karakter protesta. Istraživanje je pokazalo da je promotivna uloga vojske, odnosno slom režima u Tunisu i Egiptu određen visokim nivom institucionalizacije vojske, činjenicom da režim nije uživao legitimitet u očima vojnika, generala, javnosti, bliskim vezama vojske sa društvom, privilegovanom pozicijom paralelnih bezbjednosnih službi, te činjenicom da opstanak institucionalnih interesa vojske https://app.ithenticate.com/en_us/report/42361456/similarity 2/238 12/13/2018 Similarity Report nije zavisio od opstanka režima. Opstruktivna uloga vojske u Bahreinu i Siriji, tj. opstanak režima je određen patrimonijalanim karakterom vojske, etnički određenom strukturom vojske, činjenicom da je očuvanje njenih institucionalnih interesa zavisilo od opstanka režima, te stranom intervencijom u cilju očuvanja režima. Ishod tranzicije u Jemenu i Libiji nije zavisio od uloge vojske budući da se podijelila na snage odane režimu i antirežimske snage i to usljed intervencije vanjskih sila u formi vojne intervencije ili političkog pritiska u cilju pružanja podrške protestantima. Ključne riječi: arapski režimi, tranzicija, vojska, Tunis, Egipat, Bahrein, Sirija, Libija, Jemen Naučna oblast: Političke nauke. Uža naučna oblast: Komparativna politika; Međunarodni odnosi; Civilno-vojni odnosi; Tranzitologija UDK broj: Name of the PhD program: International Relations Title of the PhD dissertation: The Role of Military in Arab Regimes and Transition. Case Studies: Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya and Yemen SUMMARY Riot, conict, war – the denial of normal interpersonal, internal and international state relations based on stability and peace - have become key words to describe the development of the situations and events in Middle Eastern and North African countries from late 2010/early 2011 251 until today. The political earthquake that led to the fall of the regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya escalated into a 192 civil war in Syria, which continues to this day, while the regime in Bahrain has remained in power due to foreign military intervention. The beginning, ow, and outcome of these changes are, largely determined by the position and role of the military in these processes. The main goal of this paper is to examine the factors that inuenced the position of 208 the military in these countries: in Tunisia the military took a neutral position; in Egypt it gave support to protesters; in Libya and Yemen it divided into pro and anti-regime forces; and in Syria and Bahrain it remained loyal to the regime. Applying the historiographic method, the method of analyzing the available literature and documentation, case studies, and comparative methods within the dened analytical framework, i.e. determining the independent variables of the promotional or obstructive role of the military in transition, and consequently the result of transition, we came to the conclusion that the role of the military in this process is determined by its institutional, social, economic and educational dimensions, as well as foreign (non)intervention and scope of protests. The research showed that the promotional role of the military, i.e. the collapse of the regime in Tunisia and Egypt, is determined by the high level of institutionalization of the military; the fact that the regime did not enjoy legitimacy in https://app.ithenticate.com/en_us/report/42361456/similarity 3/238 12/13/2018 Similarity Report the eyes of soldiers and the general public; the close ties between the military 253 and society; the privileged position of the parallel security services; and the fact that the survival of the institutional interests of the military did not depend on the survival of the regime. The obstructive role of the military in Bahrain and Syria, i.e. the survival of the 234 regime, is determined by the patrimonial character of the military; the ethnic-determined structure of 232 the military; the fact that the protection of the institutional interests of the military depended on the survival of the regime; as well as foreign intervention with the aim to protect 227 the regime. The outcome of the transition in Yemen and Libya was not dependent on the role of the military, taking into account that it split into pro and anti-regime forces due to the intervention of external forces, in the form of military intervention or political pressure in order to provide support to protesters. Keywords: Arab regimes, transition, military, Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, Yemen Scientic eld: Political Sciences. Special topics: Comparative Politics, International Relations, Civil-Military Relations, Transitology UDC No: PREDGOVOR Opredjeljenje za pripremu doktorske disertacije, na temu „Uloga vojske u arapskim režimima i tranzicijama. Studija slučajeva: Egipat, Tunis, Libija, Sirija, Jemen i Bahrein“, proisteklo je, inter alia, iz bavljenja problematikom posljedica angažovanja vojske u političkim promjenama u okviru magistarskog rada pod nazivom „Vojska kao faktor demokratske tranzicije: slučajevi Portugala i Filipina“. Faktor koji je determinisao odabir ove teme jeste i aktuelnost i dinamika političkih promjena u regionu Bliskog istoka i Sjeverne Afrike pokrenutih krajem 2010. i početkom 2011. godine, te potreba za razumijevanjem uloge i pozicije vojske u ovim procesima i to u zemljama gdje je vojska često ili povremno bila involvirana u konstituisanje i funkcionisanje civilne komponente političkog sistema. Proces izrade doktorske disertacije predstavlja proces ukupnog zrijevanja doktoranda u ličnom, akademskom i profesionalnom pogledu. Način pristupanja, prvo idejno a zatim praktično, realizaciji doktorskog projekta određuje ukupno življanje doktoranda znatan vremenski period koji donosi ljepotu otkrivanja novih područja razmišljanja, rada i kontakata, ali i frustraciju prilikom suočavanja sa problematikom rješavanja brojnih doktorskih dilema. Prepreke ali i niz mogućnosti
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