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Statistical Forecasts of the Economic Potential of Industry of The The American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations IMPACT FACTOR – (ISSN 2693-0811) 2020: 5. 307 Published: November 30, 2020 | Pages: 1-15 Doi: https://doi.org/10.37547/tajmei/Volume02Issue11-01 Statistical Forecasts Of The Economic Potential Of Industry Of The Surkhandarya Region And The Prospects Of Its Further Development Azamat Abdukarimovich Qosimov PhD Student, Termez State University, Republic Of Uzbekistan Journal Website: http://usajournalshub.c om/index,php/tajmei Copyright: Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the creative commons attributes 4.0 licence. ABSTRACT This article examines the economic potential of the industrial sector of Surkhandarya region and analyzes it using statistical, economic-mathematical and econometric methods. Also, the medium- term forecast values of indicators representing the economic potential of the regional industry (2020- 2025) were developed and the directions for its further development were highlighted. KEYWORDS Industry, modernization, investment, export, labor potential, economic potential, model. INTRODUCTION In order to ensure the efficient use of available industrial zones in Surkhandarya region", 9 natural and labor resources, socio-economic unused state-owned facilities and small development of the region, sustainable industrial zones were established in the region. economic growth, large-scale reforms are Of course, this is important as it will create new being carried out in Surkhandarya region to jobs in the region's industrial production, further increase the regional industrial increase employment and welfare. potential, ultimately provide employment and welfare. In particular, by the Decree of the As a result of practical work carried out in President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated recent years to modernize and diversify March 29, 2018 "On measures to establish small industrial enterprises in the region and the creation of new industrial enterprises, in The USA Journals Volume 02 Issue 11-2020 1 The American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations IMPACT FACTOR – (ISSN 2693-0811) 2020: 5. 307 Published: November 30, 2020 | Pages: 1-15 Doi: https://doi.org/10.37547/tajmei/Volume02Issue11-01 particular, in 2019 the volume of industrial implementation of tasks such as ensuring output in the region amounted to 4402.8 regional stability and economic growth, deep billion. soums, which is 16.0% of the gross structural changes in the regions and achieving regional product. Compared to 2018, the the intended regional forecast parameters volume of industrial production increased by (Mahmudov and et al., 2018). 109.3%. However, these figures are 3-4 times lower than the national level. Also, although An important feature of the industrial complex the region exports electricity, textiles and is that in all its branches are created means of other industrial products, it accounts for only 1- labor and consumer goods, a large part of 2% of the region's exports (2019, $ 240.6 national income, scientific and technological million). progress is achieved (Botirova, 2019). However, due to the natural location and In general, the production potential of the fertile lands of the region, it has a large base of region means the ability to ensure long-term cheap, high-quality agricultural products. This sustainable development through the efficient will allow the supply of industrially processed and rational use of available resources and the agricultural products to domestic and foreign formation, identification and satisfaction of markets. However, due to the geographical consumer demand for industrial products in location of the region, inconvenient transport the interaction with the external environment (Mahmudov, 2019). infrastructure, the logistics costs associated with the transportation of goods are high. It is important to analyze the volume of Therefore, statistical, economic-mathematical, industrial output in the regions by comparing econometric analysis and forecasting of interregional and regional indicators with the indicators such as the volume of industrial country's indicators, analyzing the dynamics of production, the volume of investments in industrial output per capita and setting priorities and growth points in the regions industrial sectors, labor productivity in (Salimov, 2018). industry, as well as the development of promising strategies to increase the economic Industrial development will depend on a efficiency of regional industry is one of the number of opportunities, geographical and most pressing issues of the day. economic factors (Artikov, 2009). Therefore, statistical analysis of the economic potential of this sector has always aroused great practical LITERATURE REVIEW interest (Glushko et al., 2017). In the early twentieth century, many RESEARCH METHODOLOGY economists noted that industrialization was a key direction of economic development Economic, statistical, comparative analysis, economic-mathematical, econometric (Lavopa and Szirmai, 2012). That is, industry methods were used in the research process. began to be seen as a key mechanism of economic growth, economic development, Also used the published scientific works of and social development. local and foreign scientists on this topic, as well as official statistics of the Statistics Committee Sustainable industrial development has always of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Statistics been of great economic importance to Department of Surkhandarya region and the countries. Because development is in many Main Department of Employment. ways directly related to the development of regional industry, the effective use of the potential of the region's industry in the The USA Journals Volume 02 Issue 10-2020 2 The American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations IMPACT FACTOR – (ISSN 2693-0811) 2020: 5. 307 Published: November 30, 2020 | Pages: 1-15 Doi: https://doi.org/10.37547/tajmei/Volume02Issue11-01 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS resources. Therefore, today in the system of economic and social relations, labor resources In the context of rapid economic change, there are considered as the main force. Labor is no practice of forming targets (indicators) productivity in industry is determined as based on socio-economic development of follows. Surkhandarya region, as well as identifying new sources of economic growth, taking into account existing internal and external factors 푴푼 = ∑ 푸 / ∑ 푳 and strategic priorities of reforms. In addition, (1) the effective use of research in the organization and development of productive forces to ensure sustainable economic growth through the development of regional Here: economies, including industrial capacity, and 푴푼 – labor productivity in industry; the development of socio-economic development prospects based on statistical 푸 – volume of industrial production; analysis and forecasting methods are not 푳 – the number of people employed in satisfactory. the industry. In recent years, economists (Korobeynikov et al., 2003) have been conducting research in this area, emphasizing that labor productivity is Today, more than 71.1 thousand people work in another factor in the development of the the industrial sector of the region. Labor industrial sector. productivity in the sector, ie an average of 56.9 million people per person employed in the This study also showed that one of the regional industrial enterprises. UZS important factors in the development of corresponds to industrial products (Figure 1). regional industries is the productivity of labor 218.82 71.90 76.81 52.67 49.98 56.55 61.82 44.53 34.80 41.69 39.53 36.54 21.55 31.09 Figure 1. Labor productivity in the industry of Surkhandarya region1 (million soums / person) 1 Data of Surkhandarya region Statistics Department and General Employment Department. The USA Journals Volume 02 Issue 10-2020 3 The American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations IMPACT FACTOR – (ISSN 2693-0811) 2020: 5. 307 Published: November 30, 2020 | Pages: 1-15 Doi: https://doi.org/10.37547/tajmei/Volume02Issue11-01 According to the analysis, the regions with the effective effect on capital growth and the highest labor productivity in industry are productive capacity of the economy (as a long- Jarkurgan district (218.82 million soums), term supply). Shurchi district (76.81 million soums), Sariosiya district (71.90 million soums) and In general, investments are financed by current Termez city (61, Oltinsoy (21.55 million savings or borrowed funds. According to the soums), Boysun (31.09 million soums), analysis, a total of 12,232.4 billion soums will be Muzrabot (34.80 million soums), Uzun (36.54 invested in fixed assets in Surkhandarya region million soums). ) and Qizirik (39.53 million in 2019. UZS, of which centralized investments soums) districts. Of course, it depends on the by sources of financing amounted to 1397.5 specialization, development and a number of bln. soums (including 662.4 billion soums of other aspects of the enterprises in these areas budget funds, 134.0 billion soums of state trust by industry. funds, 601.1 billion soums of loans guaranteed by the Republic of Uzbekistan) and In general, one of the main directions of high- decentralized investments of 10,834.9 billion income employment of the population of the soums. soums (including 1338.3 billion soums region is the development of regional of enterprise funds, 1002.0 billion soums of industries. In turn, this requires investment population funds, 6956.5 billion soums of (capital, technology, innovative projects,
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