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Predicting Mobile Game Success Using Data Analytics اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ ﺑﻧﺟﺎح اﻟﻌﺎب

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Predicting Mobile Game Success Using Data Analytics اﻟﺗﻧﺑؤ ﺑﻧﺟﺎح اﻟﻌﺎب Predicting Mobile Game Success Using Data Analytics التنبؤ بنجاح العاب المحمول باستخدام تحليل البيانات by KHALED MOHAMMAD ALOMARI A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY COMPUTER SCIENCE at The British University in Dubai Professor Cornelius Ncube November 2017 Predicting Mobile Game Success Using Data Analytics التنبؤ بنجاح العاب المحمول باستخدام تحليل البيانات By KHALED MOHAMMAD ALOMARI A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Engineering & Information Technology in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY COMPUTER SCIENCE at The British University in Dubai November 2017 Thesis Supervisor Professor Cornelius Ncube Approved for award: ____________________________ ________________________ Name Name Designation Designation __________________________ ________________________ Name Name Designation Designation Date: ____________ DECLARATION I warrant that the content of this research is the direct result of my own work and that any use made in it of published or unpublished copyright material falls within the limits permitted by international copyright conventions. I understand that a copy of my research will be deposited in the University Library for permanent retention. I hereby agree that the material mentioned above for which I am author and copyright holder may be copied and distributed by The British University in Dubai for the purposes of research, private study or education and that The British University in Dubai may recover from purchasers the costs incurred in such copying and distribution, where appropriate. I understand that The British University in Dubai may make a digital copy available in the institutional repository. I understand that I may apply to the University to retain the right to withhold or to restrict access to my thesis for a period which shall not normally exceed four calendar years from the congregation at which the degree is conferred, the length of the period to be specified in the application, together with the precise reasons for making that application. _______________________ Signature of the student COPYRIGHT AND INFORMATION TO USERS The author whose copyright is declared on the title page of the work has granted to the British University in Dubai the right to lend his/her research work to users of its library and to make partial or single copies for educational and research use. The author has also granted permission to the University to keep or make a digital copy for similar use and for the purpose of preservation of the work digitally. Multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by either the author, the Registrar or the Dean of Education only. Copying for financial gain shall only be allowed with the author’s express permission. Any use of this work in whole or in part shall respect the moral rights of the author to be acknowledged and to reflect in good faith and without detriment the meaning of the content, and the original authorship. ABSTRACT Since the advent of arcade games and the development of the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) at the close of the millennium, the mobile game app industry has exploded; and subsequently has transformed the ideologies of mobile technology and software developers to forward thinking within the dimension of innovative mobile game development. After the first decade of the new millennium has passed, and even though billions of dollars in revenue have been realized from mobile game apps, there is still a gap in literature with regard to mobile game user behavior and methodologies for predicting the likely success of mobile game apps during the development phase. Game features and ARM strategies are analyzed and discussed as primary drivers of mobile game app success. This study addresses these challenges through data driven research of the mobile gaming application market, mobile gaming application features, user acquisition and retention trends, and monetization strategies using the CRISP-DM model for data mining in order to prove a successful method for predictions of mobile game application success. The attainment of the prediction of one mobile game app from a sample of 50 was accomplished by running a batch prediction for the game features dataset, and a separate batch prediction for the user behavior dataset. The lists were then integrated, a final list of games which appeared in both lists was generated for further comparison. According to the prediction model results for the dual datasets, the most successful mobile game app from the 50 game sample was Game of War-Fire Age; the most successful genre was Puzzles, and the most successful developer was EA Sports. Where success is described based on the best match with the results of the study. The most successful game predictions were extracted and compared to the predominating user behaviors for further analysis and implications. Significant outcomes for the comparisons included the predominance of the Social Networking features, Offers, and IAP 90% to 100% of the sample. A model of mobile game app success prediction based upon the game features values that are created proposed. Key Terms: mobile game application, monetization, location-based mobile apps, predictive analysis, CRISP-DM منذ ظهور ألعاب الورق وتطوير بروتوكول التطبيقات الﻻسلكية )WAP( في نهاية اﻷلفية، انفجرت صناعة تطبيقات لعبة المحمول. بعد ذلك بدأت أيديولوجيات تكنولوجيا الهاتف النقال ومطوري البرمجيات إلى التفكير في تطوير العاب المحمول المبتكرة. بعد مرور العقد اﻷول من اﻷلفية الجديدة، وجني عشرات مليارات الدوﻻرات التي تحققت من عائدات العاب المحمول، ﻻ تزال هناك فجوة في اﻷدب فيما يتعلق سلوكيات لعبة المحمول والمنهجيات الكمية للتنبؤ بنجاح لعبة المحمول. وقد تم تحليل مزايت اﻻلعاب واستراتيجيات (ARM) باعتبارها المحركات الرئيسية للنجاح لعبة المحمول. وتتناول هذه الدراسة هذه التحديات من خﻻل البحوث القائمة على البيانات من سوق تطبيقات اﻷلعاب المحمولة وميزات اﻷلعاب المحمولة واستراتيجيات اكتساب المستخدم والمحافظة عليه وتحقيق الدخل باستخدام نموذج (CRISP-DM) ﻻستخراج البيانات من أجل إثبات طريقة ناجحة للتنبؤ بنجاح لعبة المحمول. وذلك خﻻل التحقيق في عينة من 50 لعبة محمول باستخدام تشغيل التنبؤ دفعة لمجموعة لكل من ميزات اللعبة وسلوك المستخدم كﻻ على حدا. ثم دمج القوائم، تم إنشاء قائمة نهائية من اﻷلعاب التي ظهرت في كل من القوائم لمزيد من المقارنة. وفقا لنتائج نموذج التنبؤ لمجموعات البيانات المزدوجة كان اﻷكثر نجاحا من العينة لعبة "Game of War-Fire Age "؛ أنجح فئة كان اﻷلغاز "Puzzles"، وكان المطور اﻷكثر نجاحا "EA Sports ". وتم استخراج أكثر التنبؤات نجاحا للعبة ومقارنتها مع سلوكيات المستخدم السائدة لمزيد من التحليل واﻵثار. وشملت بعض النتائج الهامة للمقارنات غلبة ميزات الشبكات اﻻجتماعية، والعروض، بنسبة 90٪ إلى 100٪ من العينة. واقتراح نموذج للتنبؤ بنجاح لعبة المحمول على أساس قيم ميزات اللعبة التي تم دراستها. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Prof. Cornelius Ncube for the continuous support of my Ph.D. study and related research, for his patience, motivation, and immense knowledge. His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my Ph.D. study. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the second supervisor of my thesis: Prof. Khaled Shaalan, for the insightful comments and encouragement, but also for the hard question which incented me to widen my research from various perspectives. I thank my colleagues at the British University in Dubai for the stimulating discussions, for the sleepless nights we were working together before deadlines. Also, I thank my colleagues at Abu Dhabi University for the stimulating discussions and support. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my parents and to my brothers and sister for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis and my life in general. And especially to my wife for understanding my situation in this stage. Also, I thank my children and apologize to them for not giving them enough time during my studies. Thanks for all your encouragement! Table of Contents Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 1 1.1 Problem Statement ...................................................................................... 2 1.2 Significance of the Study ............................................................................ 4 1.3 Conceptual Framework ............................................................................... 7 1.4 Research Aims and Objectives .................................................................... 7 1.5 Research Questions ..................................................................................... 8 1.6 Organization of Dissertation ....................................................................... 9 Chapter 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE ............................................................ 10 2.1 Background ............................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 The Evolution of the Mobile Game Market ....................................... 11 2.1.2 The Evolution of Data Art and Mobile Game Apps .......................... 13 2.1.3 The Evolution of Locative Art and Mobile Game Apps .................... 15 2.2 Mobile Game Apps - Acquisition, Monetization and Retention (ARM) .. 17 2.2.1 Mobile App Acquisition Objective .................................................... 18 2.2.2 Mobile App Retention Objective ....................................................... 19 2.2.3 Mobile App Monetization
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