Implications of farmland expansion for species abundance, richness and mean body mass in 2 African raptor communities 4 Phil Shaw1,2*, Micheal Kibuule3, Dianah Nalwanga4, George Kaphu5, Michael Opige4,6, Derek Pomeroy3* 6 1 School of Biology, Sir Harold Mitchell Building, University of St Andrews, Fife, KY16 9TH, United Kingdom 8 2 Institute of Tropical Forest Conservation, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, PO Box 44, Kabale, Uganda 10 3 Department of Zoology, Makerere University, PO Box 7298 Kampala, Uganda 4 NatureUganda, PO Box 27034, Kampala, Uganda 12 5 Uganda Wildlife Authority, PO Box 3530, Kampala, Uganda 6 Ecological Trends Alliance, PO Box 36839, Kampala, Uganda 14 *Corresponding authors 16 E-mail addresses:
[email protected] (P. Shaw),
[email protected] (D. Pomeroy) 18 Abstract 20 Globally, conversion of natural habitats to farmland poses the greatest extinction risk to birds, its consequences being especially pervasive in the case of large predators and scavengers, whose 22 declines may trigger extensive cascading effects. Human population growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to drive a vast expansion in agricultural land by 2050, largely at the expense of pastoral 24 land and savanna. In East Africa, the greatest expanse of suitable land yet to be converted to agriculture lies mainly in South Sudan, DRC and Tanzania. To gauge the effects of land conversion 26 on raptor populations in this region we used road survey data from neighbouring Uganda, from which we determined linear encounter rates (birds seen 100 km-1; n = 33 species), and species 28 richness (53 species). Encounter rates were much lower in pastoral land than in protected savanna (median difference: -41%; 23 species), and lower still in agricultural land (-90%; 24 species).