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Download Original Attachment Subject to assurance Great Eastern Man Line Upgrade Programme (SOBC) Executive Summary This Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) is presented to obtain the commitment and approval for the development of the Great Eastern Main Line (GEML) Upgrade Programme, which proposes the application of Digital Technologies as part of a system-wide upgrade. Conclusions and Recommendations There is a case for Traffic Management and Connected Driver Advisory Systems (C-DAS) on the Anglia Route, independent of ETCS, delivering route-wide performance benefits. The costs and benefits of this option should be investigated further for implementation in CP6 (2019 - 2024). This aligns to Anglia Operating Strategy and Route Study and performance targets. The development of Traffic Management and the decision support tools (such as C-DAS, stock and crew, Incident Management and Customer Information Systems) build on the skills and experience already developed as part of the Romford Traffic Management 1st Deployment on Essex Thameside. There is a strategic fit with this deployment team’s knowledge being retained and their learning being used to support the next phase of deployment. The deployments of Thameslink, Cardiff and Romford Traffic Management Systems should be used to validate estimated performance benefits and capture lessons learnt. The package of conventional infrastructure and ETCS without signals is good value for money if rolling stock fitment costs are shared as part of a wider programme and if timing is aligned more closely to renewals in CP7 (2024 - 2029). The package delivers capacity to increase the train service on the GEML. The conventional alternative to deliver the same output, including an additional track between Chelmsford and Stratford, does not provide value for money. To deliver ETCS in CP7 development of the ETCS components would be required in CP6, and the rolling stock would need to be fitted. Developing an integrated programme between the conventional enhancements, digital enhancements and train operator investment is recommended. Capacity enhancements on the GEML could be phased to provide incremental benefits: o CP6: Bow Junction remodelling, dependency to unlocking additional peak paths, and enables an additional 3 peak paths; o CP7: Package of conventional and ETCS enhancements to provide capacity to enable a further 4 peak paths. To develop the Anglia Digital Programme towards OBC will require £10 to 20 million. This does not represent a full commitment to deployment, but rather the start of the next stage of development. Following the completion of the SOBC for the Anglia Route, the Digital candidate projects across the network will be reviewed together to understand linkages and priorities. Elements of this business case may also be prioritised for earlier delivery and therefore development tranches. Strategic Case The East of England has seen the fastest growth in employment outside of London in recent years and contributes significantly to the UK economy. For this reason, the GEML on the Version 1.0 Page 3 of 112 Issued: 28 April 2017 00SOBC-NWR-REP-MPM-000300 Great Eastern Man Line Upgrade Programme (SOBC) Anglia Route is of vital economic importance. Due to its strategic location, passenger growth is expected to rise by 75% from 2011 to 20431 . The new Greater Anglia Franchise is introducing higher capacity rolling stock which will increase peak seating capacity by 9%. However, demand is forecast to grow during CP6 and CP7 and crowding will continue without additional train services. Providing capacity to meet the demand forecast is constrained by current infrastructure. Bow Junction remodelling is a deferred CP5 scheme. Despite the additional capacity provided by the Greater Anglia Franchise, the Bow Junction remodelling scheme is still required to meet forecast growth and is a key dependency to running additional peak paths proposed in this SOBC. Increasing the train service robustly above 26 tph is limited by the signalling headway between Chelmsford and London Liverpool Street. ETCS would reduce the headway and would avoid the need for additional track, the delivery of which would be disruptive and expensive. ETCS in combination with a package of conventional infrastructure enhancements would provide capacity for 27 tph peak services, meeting demand growth to the late 2020s. Providing an all-day London to Norwich in 90 minutes and Ipswich in 60 minutes service is a key aspiration for the Route. The proposed package of ETCS with conventional infrastructure enhancements would provide capacity in the off peak for these fast services to operate with stopping and freight services. The Anglia Route is a mixed traffic railway with much of the Route two-track. During disruption it is easy for delays to be quickly transferred between services with few regulation points available to for signallers to manage the service. Traffic Management systems automate tasks that would otherwise have to be carried out manually by the signaller, and makes communicating changes to the plan more straightforward between the controllers and the signaller. Traffic Management gives greater visibility of regulating decisions over a wide area of control, which reduces reactionary delays, and improves passenger and freight customers’ experiences. The real time information provided by the Traffic Management system can be linked to other decision support tools which when combined could provide further benefits. Economic Analysis: Delivery of Traffic Management and C-DAS on the Anglia Route offers medium value for money: o A benefit cost ratio of 1.5-2; o Net Present Value of £50-£100 million. Options to deliver ETCS without signals offer better value for money than with signals. The package of conventional enhancements and ETCS without signals with the rolling stock fitment shared across a programme offers high value for money: o A benefit cost ratio between two to four; 1 Network Rail (2016) “Anglia Route Study” p4 Version 1.0 Page 4 of 112 Issued: 28 April 2017 00SOBC-NWR-REP-MPM-000300 Great Eastern Man Line Upgrade Programme (SOBC) o Net Present Value of £600-£700 million. The case strengthens if the timing if pushed back to align with renewals. The conclusions of the value of money of ETCS options are very sensitive to whole life cost assumptions. The whole life costs of the option will need to be explored in detail at the next stage of development to address this uncertainty. Commercial Case: There is high appetite for Digital Railway amongst the rail supply chain. Close and collaborative work with the supply chain is essential to the success of the Digital Railway Programme. Financial Case: There are opportunities which need to be explored at the next stage to introduce new private finance sources into the rail industry, to bring down the overall financial requirement. Management Case A delivery model (“thin client”) has been identified for the route to adopt and progress with the support of the Digital Railway team. This model will manage risks going forward, particularly the development of Digital Railway applications (ETCS and Traffic Management), which will need to be delivered at the same time as the current plans for conventional signalling renewals. Further developments at OBC stage: C-DAS, stock & crew systems, the interface with Customer Information Systems and Incident Management Systems should all be developed as part of Traffic Management. These form the complete suite of support tools to collectively improve the operational of the railway and will provide additional benefits not quantified in this SOBC. Explore options to connect the Traffic Management and C-DAS deployments on Essex Thameside and Cross-London Routes, and the radial Route from London, due to the benefits for freight services. Explore options around fitment of the ETCS in-cab equipment for the passenger trains and also to share costs of freight train fitment with other deployments (e.g. the East Coast Main Line South). Explore opportunities to focus the train service specification assumptions for additional services with a view to reduce operating costs yet maintain benefits. This approach may further improve the value for money of the package of ETCS and conventional works and should therefore be explored. Automatic Train Operation needs to be tested to understand if it is required, feasible and whether there is a value for money case. Further work to assess the option benefits including capacity assessment based on the new franchise proposals, development of train service specification as well as assessment of wider benefits. Version 1.0 Page 5 of 112 Issued: 28 April 2017 00SOBC-NWR-REP-MPM-000300 Subject to assurance Great Eastern Man Line Upgrade Programme (SOBC) 1. Strategic Case .............................................................................................................. 9 1. Strategic Case .............................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Introduction and context .................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Business Strategy .............................................................................................................10 1.3 Drivers for Change............................................................................................................13 1.4 Baseline ............................................................................................................................17
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