Biology 2012, 1, 736-765; doi:10.3390/biology1030736 OPEN ACCESS biology ISSN 2079-7737 www.mdpi.com/journal/biology Article Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic? Catherine Laura Simmons 1, Tony D. Auld 2, Ian Hutton 3, William J. Baker 4 and Alison Shapcott 1,* 1 Faculty of Science Health, Education and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, QLD 4558, Australia; E-Mail:
[email protected] 2 Office of Environment and Heritage (NSW), P.O. Box 1967 Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia; E-Mail:
[email protected] 3 P.O. Box 157, Lord Howe Island, NSW 2898, Australia; E-Mail:
[email protected] 4 Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 3AB, UK; E-Mail:
[email protected] * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail:
[email protected]; Tel.: +61-7-5430-1211; Fax: +61-7-5430-2881. Received: 3 September 2012; in revised form: 29 October 2012 / Accepted: 16 November 2012 / Published: 23 November 2012 Abstract: Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species) along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus) is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient.