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Zoomlion Heavy Industry Zoomlion Heavy Industry 1157.HK 1157 HK EQUITY: CAPITAL GOODS Weaker than expected cash generation Global Markets Research Worrying findings from a deep dive 15 April 2016 Rating Down from Buy Neutral Target Price Action/ Valuation: Downgrade to Neutral; cut earnings and TP Reduced from 3.88 HKD 3.26 We downgrade the stock to Neutral and cut our EPS estimates for FY16F/17F Closing price by 30%/22% mainly by raising our finance costs assumptions, with gearing 14 April 2016 HKD 3.26 remaining higher than our initial forecasts. As a result, we cut our DCF-derived TP by 16% to HKD3.26, implying a target FCFE yield of 6.6% for FY16F. We Potential downside 0% find the stock fairly valued at 0.5x FY16F P/B against our 3.1% projected ROE for FY17F. We prefer CRRC (1766 HK, Buy, TP: HKD10.20) for its much Anchor themes stronger cash flows. Given the rally in machinery Our deep-dive analysis reveals two key findings as follows: stocks, we think the risk-return of machinery stocks are getting less Weak cash flow generation compelling. We prefer CRRC Though the stock has rallied 72% from the trough in Jan 2016, driven by (1766 HK) for stable long-term strong industry stats in 1Q16, we find it hard to argue for a higher valuation of demand growth in the domestic the stock as we are concerned about the company’s very poor working capital market, significant overseas cash flows. The company lost another CNY6.9bn in working capital in FY15, potential and attractive valuation. despite a fall in sales where usually there should have been working capital inflow as fewer new receivables were generated. Nomura vs consensus This, we think, reflects the company’s very weak capability to turn its sales into Our FY16F/17F EPS estimates real cash. We think this also reflects the company’s fairly weak bargaining are 21%/35% higher than Bloomberg consensus. power against its distributors and suppliers. Financial leverage higher than it appears Research analysts The company’s net debt-to-equity was moderate at 59% in FY15. However, the company also provides guarantees to banks and leasing companies China Industrials lending to its customers. Hence, if customers default, the company is obliged Patrick Xu, CFA - NIHK to service the debt. Accounting for such contingent liabilities, the company’s [email protected] adjusted net debt-to-equity remained high at 84% vs peers like Weichai (2338 +852 2252 1425 HK, Buy) and CRRC, both of which are in a net cash position. Zhuoran Wang - NIHK [email protected] +852 2252 2157 Year-end 31 Dec FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F Currency (CNY) Actual Old New Old New Old New Revenue (mn) 20,753 23,364 22,603 27,451 25,114 27,945 Reported net profit (mn) 89 630 438 1,605 1,262 1,978 Normalised net profit (mn) 89 630 438 1,605 1,262 1,978 FD normalised EPS 1.16c 8.18c 5.70c 20.83c 16.41c 25.73c FD norm. EPS growth (%) -85.0 na 392.2 154.7 188.0 56.8 FD normalised P/E (x) 232.6 N/A 47.6 N/A 16.5 N/A 10.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.9 N/A 10.2 N/A 7.8 N/A 6.0 Price/book (x) 0.5 N/A 0.5 N/A 0.5 N/A 0.5 Dividend yield (%) 5.6 N/A 0.7 N/A 1.8 N/A 2.9 ROE (%) 0.2 1.5 1.1 3.8 3.2 4.8 Net debt/equity (%) 59.3 6.5 59.7 net cash 55.4 49.0 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See next page for company data and detailed price/index chart. See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Nomura | Zoomlion Heavy Industry 15 April 2016 Key data on Zoomlion Heavy Industry Relative performance chart Cashflow statement (CNYmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F EBITDA 2,193 2,019 2,740 3,463 4,191 Change in working capital -11,901 -6,765 -121 -705 -417 Other operating cashflow 1,297 734 -795 -752 -731 Cashflow from operations -8,411 -4,012 1,824 2,006 3,042 Capital expenditure -534 -386 -486 -586 -686 Free cashflow -8,945 -4,398 1,338 1,420 2,356 Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Dec in other LT assets Inc in other LT liabilities Adjustments -1,357 3,456 33 -247 -305 CF after investing acts -10,302 -942 1,371 1,173 2,051 Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Cash dividends -1,156 -378 -1,150 -154 -384 Equity issue Notes: Debt issue 8,9910000 Convertible debt issue Others 293 -1,676 34 84 110 CF from financial acts 8,128 -2,054 -1,116 -70 -275 Performance Net cashflow -2,174 -2,996 255 1,103 1,776 (%) 1M 3M 12M Beginning cash 16,657 14,483 11,487 11,742 12,845 Absolute (HKD) 7.6 34.2 -47.6 M cap (USDmn) 583.4 Ending cash 14,483 11,487 11,742 12,845 14,622 Absolute (USD) 7.6 34.4 -47.6 Free float (%) 100.0 Ending net debt 17,129 23,667 23,412 22,309 20,532 Rel to MSCI HK 5.6 31.0 -29.9 3-mth ADT (USDmn) 4.5 Balance sheet (CNYmn) Income statement (CNYmn) As at 31 Dec FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F Year-end 31 Dec FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F Cash & equivalents 14,483 11,487 11,742 12,845 14,622 Revenue 25,851 20,753 22,603 25,114 27,945 Marketable securities Cost of goods sold -18,642 -15,146 -16,432 -17,979 -19,835 Accounts receivable 42,841 43,137 45,408 48,750 52,367 Gross profit 7,209 5,607 6,171 7,135 8,110 Inventories 10,376 14,083 13,078 12,020 10,580 SG&A -5,826 -5,093 -5,268 -5,554 -5,861 Other current assets 2,171 2,309 2,475 2,700 2,954 Employee share expense 164 676 776 876 976 Total current assets 69,871 71,016 72,702 76,315 80,522 Operating profit 1,547 1,190 1,679 2,457 3,225 LT investments 228 208 208 208 208 EBITDA 2,193 2,019 2,740 3,463 4,191 Fixed assets 6,781 8,520 8,301 8,193 8,185 Depreciation -512 -625 -705 -695 -694 Goodwill 1,661 1,993 1,993 1,993 1,993 Amortisation -134 -204 -357 -311 -272 Other intangible assets 1,347 2,358 2,052 1,794 1,575 EBIT 1,547 1,190 1,679 2,457 3,225 Other LT assets 13,830 9,588 9,114 8,940 8,760 Net interest expense -692 -1,182 -1,153 -903 -797 Total assets 93,718 93,683 94,371 97,442 101,244 Associates & JCEs 1 1 1 1 1 Short-term debt 5,687 13,273 13,273 13,273 13,273 Other income 7 30 29 28 27 Accounts payable 19,494 16,813 18,123 19,928 21,941 Earnings before tax 863 39 556 1,583 2,456 Other current liabilities 30 87 87 87 87 Income tax -235 58 -83 -237 -368 Total current liabilities 25,211 30,173 31,483 33,288 35,301 Net profit after tax 628 97 472 1,346 2,088 Long-term debt 25,925 21,881 21,881 21,881 21,881 Minority interests -34 -8 -34 -84 -110 Convertible debt Other items 0 0 0 0 0 Other LT liabilities 1,374 1,060 1,115 1,191 1,275 Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0 Total liabilities 52,510 53,114 54,479 56,359 58,457 Normalised NPAT 594 89 438 1,262 1,978 Minority interest 417 673 707 791 901 Extraordinary items Preferred stock Reported NPAT 594 89 438 1,262 1,978 Common stock 40,791 39,896 39,184 40,292 41,886 Dividends -385 -1,150 -154 -384 -615 Retained earnings Transfer to reserves 209 -1,061 284 877 1,363 Proposed dividends Valuations and ratios Other equity and reserves Reported P/E (x) 33.8 232.6 47.6 16.5 10.5 Total shareholders' equity 40,791 39,896 39,184 40,292 41,886 Normalised P/E (x) 33.8 232.6 47.6 16.5 10.5 Total equity & liabilities 93,718 93,683 94,371 97,442 101,244 FD normalised P/E (x) 33.8 232.6 47.6 16.5 10.5 Dividend yield (%) 1.9 5.6 0.7 1.8 2.9 Liquidity (x) Price/cashflow (x) na na 11.4 10.4 6.9 Current ratio 2.77 2.35 2.31 2.29 2.28 Price/book (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Interest cover 2.2 1.0 1.5 2.7 4.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 13.9 10.2 7.8 6.0 Leverage EV/EBIT (x) 13.7 23.6 16.6 10.9 7.8 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 7.81 11.72 8.54 6.44 4.90 Gross margin (%) 27.9 27.0 27.3 28.4 29.0 Net debt/equity (%) 42.0 59.3 59.7 55.4 49.0 EBITDA margin (%) 8.5 9.7 12.1 13.8 15.0 EBIT margin (%) 6.0 5.7 7.4 9.8 11.5 Per share Net margin (%) 2.3 0.4 1.9 5.0 7.1 Reported EPS (CNY) 7.73c 1.16c 5.70c 16.41c 25.73c Effective tax rate (%) 27.2 -148.7 15.0 15.0 15.0 Norm EPS (CNY) 7.73c 1.16c 5.70c 16.41c 25.73c Dividend payout (%) 64.8 1,292.1 35.1 30.5 31.1 FD norm EPS (CNY) 7.73c 1.16c 5.70c 16.41c 25.73c ROE (%) 1.4 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.8 BVPS (CNY) 5.29 5.19 5.10 5.24 5.45 ROA (pretax %) 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.9 3.8 DPS (CNY) 0.05 0.15 0.02 0.05 0.08 Growth (%) Activity (days) Revenue -32.9 -19.7 8.9 11.1 11.3 Days receivable 562.2 756.1 716.9 684.2 660.4 EBITDA -53.8 -7.9 35.7 26.4 21.0 Days inventory 187.2 294.7 302.5 254.8 207.9 Normalised EPS -84.5 -85.0 392.2 188.0 56.8 Days payable 424.7 437.5 389.1 386.2 385.2 Normalised FDEPS -84.5 -85.0 392.2 188.0 56.8 Cash cycle 324.7 613.3 630.3 552.7 483.1 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 2 Nomura | Zoomlion Heavy Industry 15 April 2016 Earnings revisions We cut our revenue forecasts for FY16F/17F by 3%/9%, as we lower our expectations on the magnitude of a rebound in revenue from concrete machinery and construction cranes, based on management’s guidance (provided at the earnings call after market close on 31 March).
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