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Conference Proceedings Edited by Marcus Reckermann and Silke Köppen 7th Study Conference on BALTEX 10 - 14 June 2013 Borgholm, Island of Öland, Sweden Conference Proceedings Edited by Marcus Reckermann and Silke Köppen BALTEX is a Regional Hydroclimate Project within GEWEX, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges Project and WCRP, the World Climate Research Programme. Organisers and Sponsors Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping, Sweden University of Gothenburg, Sweden Swedish Institute for the Environment, Gothenburg, Sweden Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Linnæus University Kalmar, Sweden Finnish Meteorological Institute Helsinki, Finland Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia Gesellschaft zur Förderung des Helmholtz-Zentrums Geesthacht e.V., Germany Scientific Conference Committee - Andris Andrušaitis, Latvia - Mikko Alestalo, Finland - Berit Arheimer, Sweden - Franz Berger, Germany - Ryhor Chekan, Belarus - Jüri Elken, Estonia - Sven-Erik Gryning, Denmark - Sirje Keevallik, Estonia (Co-Chair) - Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Poland - Maria Lamaanen, Finland - Michael Lautenschlager, Germany - Andreas Lehmann, Germany - Kai Myrberg, Finland - Anders Omstedt, Sweden (Co-Chair) - Janusz Pempkowiak, Poland - Bernd Schneider, Germany - Benjamin Smith, Sweden - Martin Stendel, Denmark - Tapani Stipa, Finland - Hans von Storch, Germany (Co-Chair) - Valery Vuglinsky, Russia Organising Committee - Joakim Langner, Sweden (Chair) - Anders Omstedt, Sweden - Marie-Jose Gaillard, Sweden - Marcus Reckermann, Germany - Silke Köppen, Germany - Hans-Jörg Isemer, Germany More than twenty years ago … … the idea of BALTEX was born and soon brought into life. The intention was to install a European research programme within the newly designed Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), with the Baltic Sea drainage basin as a challenging region to investigate the water and energy cycles in a major continental-scale catchment. Since then, a lot has happened. Projects were designed and executed, data were collected and analysed, papers were written, networks and friendships were formed. With time, merited people left the programme for new challenges, and new people came, bringing in new ideas and networks. After about 10 years, Phase II was launched, extending the scope to climate variability and change, provision of tools for water management and coping with extreme events, biogeochemical changes, and more applied and societal topics like education and outreach. Now, after 20 years of successful research and scientific networking, BALTEX will be terminated at this conference. We will look back at the early days, and we are pleased to have some of the founding fathers at the conference. At the same time, the conference will be the start of a new programme to succeed BALTEX. The new programme will have a new name and a new logo (which will be unveiled at this conference), but it will stand firmly in the BALTEX tradition of fostering the free collaboration between research groups from different countries and scientific disciplines in response to common research questions. The first Study Conference on BALTEX took place in Visby, Gotland, in August 1995. With this 7th and final Study Conference on BALTEX, we are returning to the country with the longest Baltic Sea coastline and an exceptionally strong Baltic Sea research infrastructure. From the very beginning, Sweden has been an important country for the international research network BALTEX. Thus, keeping up the tradition to hold the conferences on Baltic Sea islands, Öland was chosen as the venue for this final BALTEX Study conference. In this respect, we are especially happy and proud that our conference is honoured by the presence of H.M. King Carl XVI Gustaf, King of Sweden. The conference topics reflect the BALTEX Phase II objectives and goals: Topic A: Improved understanding of energy and water cycles under changing conditions Topic B: Analysis of climate variability and change, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century Topic C: Provision of improved tools for water management, with an emphasis on extreme hydrological events and long-term changes Topic D: Biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea basin and transport processes within the regional Earth system under anthropogenic influence We received 110 contributions for oral and poster presentations, and the allocation to one of the above topics was often difficult. Again, this demonstrates the interdisciplinary nature of the BALTEX programme, and regional Earth system research in general. In a special session, some finalised BONUS+ projects will present their results. We are happy to welcome high-ranking representatives of the global programmes GEWEX and Future Earth, who will present the programme´s prospects for the coming years. They may potentially provide a global embedment for the new, regionally focussed programme. Also, two sister GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Projects will be presented. A dedicated session will focus on the scope of the new programme, with ample time for an open discussion. This proceedings volume contains all extended abstracts accepted for presentation at the conference, sorted alphabetically within each topic or session (except for the Opening Session, which is sorted chronologically). As usual at BALTEX conferences, no distinction is made between oral and poster presentations in this volume. We would like to thank all the sponsors and everybody who has helped in the preparation and execution of the conference. Marcus Reckermann and the Conference Organisers June 2013 I Contents BALTEX – 20 years of international and interdisciplinary research for the Baltic Sea region Anders Omstedt ............................................................................................................................ 1 Bringing together the East and the West: Joining ideas, people, datasets Sirje Keevallik ................................................................................................................................ 3 Challenges for the Baltic Sea region from the HELCOM perspective Mikhail Durkin .............................................................................................................................. 4 Climate Change in the Baltic Sea region - The BACC assessments Hans von Storch............................................................................................................................. 5 A new science and outreach programme for the Baltic Sea region H.E. Markus Meier ........................................................................................................................ 6 Topic A: Improved understanding of energy and water cycles under changing conditions Contributions of BALTEX towards the understanding of the Earth`s water and energy cycle (solicited) Lennart Bengtsson ........................................................................................................................ 9 Different tracks of Mediterranean cyclones towards Europe and their associated precipitation fields in Poland Jan Degirmendžić ....................................................................................................................... 10 Ground-based GPS networks for remote sensing of the atmospheric water vapour content: A review (solicited) Gunnar Elgered ........................................................................................................................... 12 GNSS for global Earth observation: An update from the European coordination action Gfg² Gunnar Elgered, J. Wickert, C. Arras, M. Caparrini, A. Puig-Centelles, A. Egido, S. Fuller, M. Gauss, R. Haas, R. Jongman, J. Johansson, P. Monks and S. Zolotikova .................................... 14 Long term measurements of the energy balance at urban area in Łódź, central Poland Krzysztof Fortuniak, W. Pawlak and M. Siedlecki ...................................................................... 16 Surface energy balance and exchange of greenhouse gases in Eastern Poland wetland – A new EC site in Biebrza National Park Krzysztof Fortuniak, W. Pawlak, M. Siedlecki, and M. Zieliński ................................................. 18 Sea ice thickness variability in the Baltic Sea Jari Haapala, M. Lensu, B.W. An, J. Lehtiranta and I. Ronkainen ............................................... 20 II Freshwater outflow of the Baltic Sea and transport in the Norwegian Current: A statistical correlation analysis based on a numerical experiment Robinson Hordoir, C. Dieterich, C. Basu, H. Dietze and H.E.M. Meier ....................................... 21 What do we know about the human impact on aerosol cloud-mediated climate processes in the Baltic Region? Olaf Krüger ................................................................................................................................. 23 Upwelling dynamics in the Baltic Sea studied by a combined SAR/infrared satellite data and circulation model analysis Andreas Lehmann, E. Gurova and A. Ivanov .............................................................................. 25 A statistical approach to coastal upwelling in the Baltic Sea based on the analysis of satellite data for 1990–2009 Kai Myrberg, A. Lehmann and K. Höflich.................................................................................... 27 Snow cover impact on ground freeze-thaw in northern Sweden Maria Nilsson .............................................................................................................................
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