bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.21.440774; this version posted April 26, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-ND 4.0 International license. Leveraging probability concepts for genotype by environment recommendation Kaio O.G. Dias†1; Jhonathan P.R. dos Santos†1; Matheus D. Krause2; Hans-Peter Piepho3; Lauro J.M. Guimarães4; Maria M. Pastina4; Antonio A.F. Garcia 1* 1 Department of Genetics, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, SP, Brazil 2 Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA 3 Biostatistics Unit, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany 4 Embrapa Maize and Sorghum, Sete Lagoas, MG, Brazil †These authors contributed equally to this work: Kaio Dias and Jhonathan dos Santos *Corresponding author: Antonio Garcia -
[email protected] We would like to dedicate this article to the memory of Dr. Márcio Balestre. He was a young and brilliant scientist who made an outstanding contribution to statistical genetics. Abstract Statistical models that capture the phenotypic plasticity of a genotype across environments are crucial in plant breeding programs to potentially identify parents, generate offspring, and obtain highly productive genotypes for distinct environments. In this study, our aim is to leverage concepts of Bayesian models and probability methods of stability analysis to untangle genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI). The proposed method employs the posterior distribution obtained with the No-U-Turn sampler algorithm to get Monte Carlo estimates of adaptation and stability probabilities.