New Jersey Auto Outlook TM Used Vehicle Market Edition

Volume 3, Number 4 Released December, 2009

RESULTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY RETAIL USED LIGHT VEHICLE MARKET Results in Used Vehicle Market in Line With Expectations; Increase Likely Again in 2010

Without question, 2009 was a tumultuous year for NEW JERSEY RETAIL USED LIGHT VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS the auto industry. Few could have foreseen the YTD THRU OCTOBER multitude of events that unfolded during the year. Registrations % Change Market Share As the severe recession took hold at the end of 2008 2009 '08 TO '09 2008 2009 2008, however, one trend did become plainly evi- dent: the New Jersey used vehicle market would TOTAL 697,746 692,669 -0.7% represent a relative bright spot. And indeed it has Cars 425,518 418,413 -1.7% 61.0% 60.4% been. As shown on the table to the right, retail Light Trucks 272,228 274,256 0.7% 39.0% 39.6% used light vehicle registrations in New Jersey were essentially unchanged during the first ten Big Three 359,564 347,883 -3.2% 51.5% 50.2% months of 2009 versus the same period a year Japanese 246,847 242,662 -1.7% 35.4% 35.0% earlier, while the state’s new vehicle market fell European 72,802 80,049 10.0% 10.4% 11.6% 19.7% during the same period. Korean 18,533 22,075 19.1% 2.7% 3.2%

In 2010, however, it is practically guaranteed that on a percentage change basis, the new vehicle QUARTERLY LIGHT TRUCK SHARE OF USED VEHICLE MARKET market will out-perform the used vehicle market. Given the depths that new vehicle sales sank to in 2009, a sizable percentage increase in sales is 45.0% almost a sure thing. While New Jersey retail used 43.0% vehicle sales are likely to increase by about 5% in 41.0% 39.0% 2010, new vehicle sales could increase by more 37.0% than 10%. 35.0% 33.0% The forces that supported used vehicle sales in 31.0% 2009 should remain in place for at least the next 29.0% 12 months. High unemployment rates, tight credit 27.0% markets, excessive household debt, and de- 25.0% pressed home values will continue to make a used vehicle purchase the only option for a sig- 5.4 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.3 nificant number of vehicle shoppers.

NEW JERSEY RETAIL USED VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS-THREE MONTH MOVING AVERAGE (NOV ’07 THRU OCT ’09)

90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

Jul-08 Jul-09 Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08 Apr-08May-08Jun-08 Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09 Apr-09May-09Jun-09 Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09 Page 2 New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition

MARKET SHARE SCOREBOARD Honda Just Behind Chevrolet as Second Best Selling Brand in New Jersey Used Market

The graph below presents a comparison of brand sales performance in the New Jersey retail new and used vehicle markets for the top 15 selling used vehicle brands. For each brand, the graph presents retail used and new vehicle market share during the first ten months of 2009. Brands are ranked from top to bottom based on used vehicle market share. Ford’s used vehicle market share was 14.5%, compared to 7.3% for new vehicles. Largely as a result of recent gains in the new vehicle market, Honda, Toyota/Scion, and Nissan new vehicle market shares are well above their respective levels in the used vehicle market. Honda’s used vehicle market share, for instance, was 9.4% versus 15.2% on the new vehicle side.

NEW JERSEY USED AND NEW VEHICLE MARKET SHARE-YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER

Ford Chevrolet Honda Toyota/Scion Nissan Dodge Jeep Used BMW New Chrysler Volkswagen Hyundai Mercedes Acura Mercury Mazda

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

MARKET TRENDS Used Vehicle Market Holds Up Better During Recession

As discussed on page one, the New Jersey used vehicle market held up much better during the recession than the new ve- hicle market. But as depicted on the graph below, the new vehicle market stabilized in the first two quarters of 2009, and started to recover from depressed sales levels in the Third Quarter. Aided by the CARS program, new vehicle registrations increased 29% from the Second to the Third Quarter of 2009, while used vehicle registrations were up 3%.

STATE QUARTERLY NEW AND USED VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS

250000

200000

150000 Used New 8EJN

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09 Released December 2009 Page 3

IDENTIFYING HOT POCKETS OF NEW JERSEY USED VEHICLE MARKET Three Year Old Vehicles Represent Strongest Age Class in New Jersey Market

The graphs on this page pro- CHANGE IN NEW JERSEY USED VEHICLE SEGMENT MARKET SHARE vide a view of the changing YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER VS. YTD 2008 composition of the New Jersey used vehicle market. The graph Compact SUV on the right shows the change in market share for 18 primary Mid Size Luxury SUV segments during the first 10 Near months of 2009 versus the Mid Size SUV same period a year earlier. For segments at the top of the Full Size graph, used vehicle market Luxury Car share increased. Although the Entry Car increases were relatively small, the Compact and Mid Size Lux- Full Size Luxury SUV ury SUV segments had the Mini Van largest market share gains. Full Size SUV Three year old vehicle market Sports Car share posted the highest in- Standard Mid Size Car crease during the first ten Compact Pickup months of 2009, increasing from 17.7% in 2008 to 20.1%, an Sub increase of 2.4 market share Full Size Pickup points. Sport Compact Car

Source: AutoCount data from Large Mid Size Car Experian Automotive. Mid Size SUV

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

NEW JERSEY USED VEHICLE MARKET SHARE BY AGE OF VEHICLE, YTD ’08 AND ’09 THRU OCTOBER ONLY INCLUDES VEHICLES 8 YEARS OLD OR NEWER

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% Current 8 years old 7 years old 6 years old 5 years old 4 years old 3 years old 2 years old 1 year old Model Year YTD '08 11.9% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 13.6% 17.7% 12.2% 9.2% 4.0% YTD '09 10.9% 10.7% 9.9% 9.8% 12.4% 20.1% 12.7% 9.9% 3.6% Page 4 New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition

TOP SELLING MODELS IN STATE USED VEHICLE MARKET (VEHICLES NEWER THAN FIVE YEARS OLD) 2006 Honda Accord Best Selling Vehicle in State Market; 2006 Nissan Altima Ranks Second

The graph below shows the top 20 selling car and light truck models (with specific model years) during the first ten months of 2009. (Note: only includes vehicles newer than five years old.) The best seller was the 2006 Honda Accord, followed by the 2006 Nissan Altima, and 2006 BMW 3-Series.

Source: AutoCount, an Experian Company.

TOP 20 SELLING MODELS IN NEW JERSEY USED RETAIL LIGHT VEHICLE MARKET (YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER)

2006 Honda Accord 3209

2006 Nissan Altima 2461

2006 BMW 3-Series 2202

2007 Toyota Camry 2159

2006 Honda Civic 1714

2006 Jeep Grand Cherokee 1712

2007 Honda Accord 1552

2005 Honda Accord 1344

2006 Honda Pilot 1338

2006 Ford Explorer 1197

2006 Ford F-Series 1193

2005 Nissan Altima 1180

2004 Ford F-Series 1167

2007 Honda Civic 1146

2005 Jeep Grand Cherokee 1139

2007 BMW 3-Series 1136

2004 Honda Accord 1106

2006 Toyota Camry 1103

2006 1102

2005 Honda Civic 1094

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Released December 2009 Page 5

TOP SELLING MODELS IN USED VEHICLE MARKET (VEHICLES NEWER THAN FIVE YEARS OLD) Accord Best Seller in Used Vehicle Market; Jeep Wrangler Leads Compact SUV Segment

The two tables below rank the best Honda Accord was the best selling Bottom Line: Dealers should not ignore selling used vehicles in New Jersey for vehicle in the five year old or newer opportunities that clearly exist in the all vehicles less than five years old category, followed by Honda Civic, used vehicle market for vehicles strug- during the first ten months of 2009. Toyota Camry, and Ford F-Series. To- gling in the new vehicle market, i.e., The first table shows the top sellers tals include previous generation Jeep Grand Cherokee, Ford Explorer, broken down by primary market seg- vehicles replaced by a new model. For and Dodge Caravan. ment. The second table shows the top example, Chevrolet Cobalt includes 30 sellers across all segments. Cavalier.

Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Jersey, Vehicles Less Than Five Years Old Used Retail Registrations, YTD 2009 thru October and Market Share of Segment Cars Entry Sub Compact Sporty Compact Standard Mid Size Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share 2096 26.8 Honda Civic 23779 22.1 Ford Mustang 6098 25.6 Honda Accord 26963 24.7 Toyota Echo 1413 18.0 Toyota Corolla 13630 12.7 Acura RSX 3839 16.1 Toyota Camry 20825 19.0 Toyota Yaris 688 8.8 Ford Focus 8999 8.4 Mitsubishi Eclipse 2697 11.3 Nissan Altima 13865 12.7 Sephia 651 8.3 Volkswagen Jetta 7867 7.3 Chevrolet Camaro 1510 6.3 Chevrolet Malibu 5226 4.8 583 7.4 Chevrolet Cobalt 7798 7.3 Mercury Cougar 1394 5.9 Pontiac G6 5027 4.6 Large Mid Size Near Luxury Luxury Sports Car Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Ford Taurus 10513 15.3 BMW 3-Series 9475 22.2 4338 10.9 Chevrolet Corvette 1647 25.9 Nissan Maxima 9294 13.5 Audi A4 4321 10.1 BMW 5-Series 4293 10.8 Nissan 350 ZX 944 14.8 4466 6.5 Acura TL 4263 10.0 DTS 4108 10.3 Porsche 911 700 11.0 Mercury Gr. Marquis 3479 5.1 Lexus ES 3732 8.7 Mercedes E-Class 3417 8.6 Mazda MX5 643 10.1 Mercury Sable 3434 5.0 Mercedes C-Class 3305 7.7 Acura RL 1951 4.9 BMW Z4 488 7.7 Light Trucks Compact Pickup Full Size Pick Up Mini Van Full Size Van Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Ford Ranger 5056 29.1 Ford F-Series 17951 48.7 Dodge Caravan 9333 22.2 Ford E-Series 10373 54.2 Dodge Dakota 3495 20.1 Dodge Ram 7064 19.2 Ford Freestar 7015 16.7 Chevrolet Express 4366 22.8 Chevrolet Colorado 3488 20.1 Chevrolet Silverado 6683 18.1 Chrysler T & C 4949 11.8 Dodge Ram Van 2560 13.4 Toyota Tacoma 2400 13.8 GMC Sierra 3030 8.2 Honda Odyssey 4456 10.6 Nissan Frontier 1280 7.4 Toyota Tundra 1158 3.1 Toyota Sienna 4195 10.0 Compact SUV Mid Size SUV/Crossover SUV Full Size SUV Mid & Full Size Luxury SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Jeep Wrangler 4875 14.1 Jeep Grand Cherokee 17858 22.7 Ford Expedition 3773 25.5 Lexus RX 3234 14.1 Honda CRV 4076 11.8 Ford Explorer 15490 19.7 Chevrolet Tahoe 2501 16.9 Acura MDX 2404 10.5 Jeep Liberty 3795 11.0 Chevrolet Blazer 5047 6.4 Chevrolet Suburban 2039 13.8 Mercedes M-Class 2271 9.9 Ford Escape 3383 9.8 Nissan Pathfinder 4657 5.9 GMC Yukon 1138 7.7 BMW X5 2013 8.8 Toyota RAV4 3185 9.2 Dodge Durango 3552 4.5 Mitsubishi Montero 935 6.3 BMW X3 1985 8.7

Top 30 Selling Models in New Jersey, Vehicles Five Years Old or Newer Used Retail Registrations, YTD 2009 thru October Rank Model Registrations Rank Model Registrations Rank Model Registrations 1 Honda Accord 26963 11 BMW 3-Series 9475 21 Chevrolet Silverado 6683 2 Honda Civic 23779 12 Dodge Caravan 9333 22 Ford Mustang 6098 3 Toyota Camry 20825 13 Nissan Maxima 9294 23 Chevrolet Malibu 5226 4 Ford F-Series 17951 14 Ford Focus 8999 24 Ford Ranger 5056 5 Jeep Grand Cherokee 17858 15 Volkswagen Jetta 7867 25 Chevrolet Blazer 5047 6 Ford Explorer 15490 16 Chevrolet Cobalt 7798 26 Pontiac G6 5027 7 Nissan Altima 13865 17 Saturn Ion 7384 27 Mazda 6 5019 8 Toyota Corolla 13630 18 Dodge Ram 7064 28 Chrysler T & C 4949 9 Ford Taurus 10513 19 Ford Freestar 7015 29 Jeep Wrangler 4875 10 Ford E-Series 10373 20 Nissan Sentra 6722 30 Hyundai Sonata 4834 Page 6 New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition

MARKET SCOREBOARD Kia and Hyundai Post Largest Increases in New Jersey Used Vehicle Market The graph below shows the percent change in used retail light vehicle registrations during the first ten months of 2009 versus the same period a year earlier for the top 30 selling brands. Kia registrations increased 22.3%. Hyundai, Subaru, Mercedes, Lexus, and BMW each increased more than 10%. Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive PERCENT CHANGE IN USED LIGHT VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER VS. YTD 2008

Kia 22.3% Hyundai 18.8% Subaru 17.2% Mercedes 16.4% Lexus 12.6% BMW 12.3% Volkswagen 9.9% Cadillac 7.0% Acura 6.9% Volvo 6.6% Audi 5.8% Jeep 5.8% Infiniti 5.7% Lincoln 4.9% Toyota/Scion 3.8% Honda 3.0% Saab 3.0% Mazda 2.4% Chrysler 2.1% Chevrolet 1.5% Nissan 0.7% Ford -0.3% Dodge -0.5% Pontiac -0.5% Buick -1.1% Saturn -1.3% GMC -2.2% Land Rover -2.7% Mitsubishi -3.2% Mercury -3.9%

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Released December 2009 Page 7

ANALYSIS OF COUNTY USED VEHICLE MARKETS Used Registrations Increase 10% in Hunterdon County

The graph below shows the percent counties. Retail used registrations in- counties had the largest percentage change in used retail light vehicle reg- creased by more than 5% in Hunter- declines. istrations during the first ten months of don, Somerset, Monmouth, and Morris 2009 versus the same period a year Counties. Four Southern New Jersey earlier in each of New Jersey’s 21

PERCENT CHANGE IN RETAIL USED VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS - YTD ’09 THRU OCTOBER VS. YTD ’08

Hunterdon 10.0%

Somerset 8.8%

Monmouth 8.5%

Morris 5.7%

Bergen 4.9%

Warren 3.4%

Middlesex 2.7%

Passaic 2.4%

Mercer 1.0%

Sussex 0.3%

Union 0.3%

Burlington -0.6%

Ocean -0.8%

Hudson -0.9%

Gloucester -2.6%

Cape May -3.4%

Essex -6.0%

Camden -7.8%

Atlantic -7.9%

Salem -15.6%

Cumberland -17.1%

-25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Page 8 New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition

BRAND USED VEHICLE MARKET SHARE Honda Top Selling Brand in Three to Five Year Old Age Class

The graph shows used vehicle market share in New Jersey during the first ten months of 2009. Two data points are presented for each brand: market share in the newer than two year old category, and market share in the three to five year old category. Brands are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on market share in the newer than two year old class, with Ford and Toyota ranked first and second, respectively.

NEW JERSEY USED VEHICLE MARKET SHARE BY AGE OF VEHICLE, YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER

10.9 Ford 9.0 10.7 Toyota 8.9 9.0 Chevrolet 8.0 6.5 Nissan 8.1 6.3 Honda 9.9 6.1 Dodge 4.0 5.1 BMW 5.5 4.7 Less than 2 yrs. Hyundai 2.4 Old 3 to 5 yrs. Old 4.0 Chrysler 3.2 3.7 Jeep 5.1 3.6 Mercedes 3.2 2.7 Lexus 3.0 2.6 Mazda 1.7 2.1 Cadillac 2.9 2.0 Pontiac 1.7

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition is Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. printed, sponsored, and distributed by NJCAR, and is 5 Great Valley Parkway, Suite 234 Malvern, PA 19355 provided free of charge to all members as an added Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: [email protected] Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz benefit of Association membership. The Association is Any material quoted must be attributed to New Jersey Auto Outlook proud to provide this valuable and practical information Used Vehicle Market Edition, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on to members. behalf of NJCAR. Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projec- tions presented. Consequently, Auto Outlook, Inc. is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition. Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., December, 2009