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New Jersey Auto Outlook TM Used Vehicle Market Edition

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New Jersey Auto Outlook TM Used Vehicle Market Edition New Jersey Auto Outlook TM Used Vehicle Market Edition Volume 3, Number 4 Released December, 2009 RESULTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY RETAIL USED LIGHT VEHICLE MARKET Results in Used Vehicle Market in Line With Expectations; Increase Likely Again in 2010 Without question, 2009 was a tumultuous year for NEW JERSEY RETAIL USED LIGHT VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS the auto industry. Few could have foreseen the YTD THRU OCTOBER multitude of events that unfolded during the year. Registrations % Change Market Share As the severe recession took hold at the end of 2008 2009 '08 TO '09 2008 2009 2008, however, one trend did become plainly evi- dent: the New Jersey used vehicle market would TOTAL 697,746 692,669 -0.7% represent a relative bright spot. And indeed it has Cars 425,518 418,413 -1.7% 61.0% 60.4% been. As shown on the table to the right, retail Light Trucks 272,228 274,256 0.7% 39.0% 39.6% used light vehicle registrations in New Jersey were essentially unchanged during the first ten Big Three 359,564 347,883 -3.2% 51.5% 50.2% months of 2009 versus the same period a year Japanese 246,847 242,662 -1.7% 35.4% 35.0% earlier, while the state’s new vehicle market fell European 72,802 80,049 10.0% 10.4% 11.6% 19.7% during the same period. Korean 18,533 22,075 19.1% 2.7% 3.2% In 2010, however, it is practically guaranteed that on a percentage change basis, the new vehicle QUARTERLY LIGHT TRUCK SHARE OF USED VEHICLE MARKET market will out-perform the used vehicle market. Given the depths that new vehicle sales sank to in 2009, a sizable percentage increase in sales is 45.0% almost a sure thing. While New Jersey retail used 43.0% vehicle sales are likely to increase by about 5% in 41.0% 39.0% 2010, new vehicle sales could increase by more 37.0% than 10%. 35.0% 33.0% The forces that supported used vehicle sales in 31.0% 2009 should remain in place for at least the next 29.0% 12 months. High unemployment rates, tight credit 27.0% markets, excessive household debt, and de- 25.0% pressed home values will continue to make a used vehicle purchase the only option for a sig- 5.4 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.3 nificant number of vehicle shoppers. NEW JERSEY RETAIL USED VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS-THREE MONTH MOVING AVERAGE (NOV ’07 THRU OCT ’09) 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Jul-08 Jul-09 Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08 Apr-08May-08Jun-08 Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09 Apr-09May-09Jun-09 Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09 Page 2 New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition MARKET SHARE SCOREBOARD Honda Just Behind Chevrolet as Second Best Selling Brand in New Jersey Used Market The graph below presents a comparison of brand sales performance in the New Jersey retail new and used vehicle markets for the top 15 selling used vehicle brands. For each brand, the graph presents retail used and new vehicle market share during the first ten months of 2009. Brands are ranked from top to bottom based on used vehicle market share. Ford’s used vehicle market share was 14.5%, compared to 7.3% for new vehicles. Largely as a result of recent gains in the new vehicle market, Honda, Toyota/Scion, and Nissan new vehicle market shares are well above their respective levels in the used vehicle market. Honda’s used vehicle market share, for instance, was 9.4% versus 15.2% on the new vehicle side. NEW JERSEY USED AND NEW VEHICLE MARKET SHARE-YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER Ford Chevrolet Honda Toyota/Scion Nissan Dodge Jeep Used BMW New Chrysler Volkswagen Hyundai Mercedes Acura Mercury Mazda 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% MARKET TRENDS Used Vehicle Market Holds Up Better During Recession As discussed on page one, the New Jersey used vehicle market held up much better during the recession than the new ve- hicle market. But as depicted on the graph below, the new vehicle market stabilized in the first two quarters of 2009, and started to recover from depressed sales levels in the Third Quarter. Aided by the CARS program, new vehicle registrations increased 29% from the Second to the Third Quarter of 2009, while used vehicle registrations were up 3%. STATE QUARTERLY NEW AND USED VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS 250000 200000 150000 Used New 8EJN<IJ;I@M<I<JLCKJ% 100000 You need insights into your marketplace to make the best decisions to maximize prots. The AutoCount® Dealer Report analyzes full details on new and used competitive 50000 dealer market share, down to specic areas you dene. You bring the questions. We’ll bring the answers. 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 '09 '09 '09 Released December 2009 Page 3 IDENTIFYING HOT POCKETS OF NEW JERSEY USED VEHICLE MARKET Three Year Old Vehicles Represent Strongest Age Class in New Jersey Market The graphs on this page pro- CHANGE IN NEW JERSEY USED VEHICLE SEGMENT MARKET SHARE vide a view of the changing YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER VS. YTD 2008 composition of the New Jersey used vehicle market. The graph Compact SUV on the right shows the change in market share for 18 primary Mid Size Luxury SUV segments during the first 10 Near Luxury Car months of 2009 versus the Mid Size Crossover SUV same period a year earlier. For segments at the top of the Full Size Van graph, used vehicle market Luxury Car share increased. Although the Entry Car increases were relatively small, the Compact and Mid Size Lux- Full Size Luxury SUV ury SUV segments had the Mini Van largest market share gains. Full Size SUV Three year old vehicle market Sports Car share posted the highest in- Standard Mid Size Car crease during the first ten Compact Pickup months of 2009, increasing from 17.7% in 2008 to 20.1%, an Sub Compact Car increase of 2.4 market share Full Size Pickup points. Sport Compact Car Source: AutoCount data from Large Mid Size Car Experian Automotive. Mid Size SUV -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 NEW JERSEY USED VEHICLE MARKET SHARE BY AGE OF VEHICLE, YTD ’08 AND ’09 THRU OCTOBER ONLY INCLUDES VEHICLES 8 YEARS OLD OR NEWER 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Current 8 years old 7 years old 6 years old 5 years old 4 years old 3 years old 2 years old 1 year old Model Year YTD '08 11.9% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 13.6% 17.7% 12.2% 9.2% 4.0% YTD '09 10.9% 10.7% 9.9% 9.8% 12.4% 20.1% 12.7% 9.9% 3.6% Page 4 New Jersey Auto Outlook Used Vehicle Market Edition TOP SELLING MODELS IN STATE USED VEHICLE MARKET (VEHICLES NEWER THAN FIVE YEARS OLD) 2006 Honda Accord Best Selling Vehicle in State Market; 2006 Nissan Altima Ranks Second The graph below shows the top 20 selling car and light truck models (with specific model years) during the first ten months of 2009. (Note: only includes vehicles newer than five years old.) The best seller was the 2006 Honda Accord, followed by the 2006 Nissan Altima, and 2006 BMW 3-Series. Source: AutoCount, an Experian Company. TOP 20 SELLING MODELS IN NEW JERSEY USED RETAIL LIGHT VEHICLE MARKET (YTD 2009 THRU OCTOBER) 2006 Honda Accord 3209 2006 Nissan Altima 2461 2006 BMW 3-Series 2202 2007 Toyota Camry 2159 2006 Honda Civic 1714 2006 Jeep Grand Cherokee 1712 2007 Honda Accord 1552 2005 Honda Accord 1344 2006 Honda Pilot 1338 2006 Ford Explorer 1197 2006 Ford F-Series 1193 2005 Nissan Altima 1180 2004 Ford F-Series 1167 2007 Honda Civic 1146 2005 Jeep Grand Cherokee 1139 2007 BMW 3-Series 1136 2004 Honda Accord 1106 2006 Toyota Camry 1103 2006 Toyota Corolla 1102 2005 Honda Civic 1094 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Released December 2009 Page 5 TOP SELLING MODELS IN USED VEHICLE MARKET (VEHICLES NEWER THAN FIVE YEARS OLD) Accord Best Seller in Used Vehicle Market; Jeep Wrangler Leads Compact SUV Segment The two tables below rank the best Honda Accord was the best selling Bottom Line: Dealers should not ignore selling used vehicles in New Jersey for vehicle in the five year old or newer opportunities that clearly exist in the all vehicles less than five years old category, followed by Honda Civic, used vehicle market for vehicles strug- during the first ten months of 2009. Toyota Camry, and Ford F-Series. To- gling in the new vehicle market, i.e., The first table shows the top sellers tals include previous generation Jeep Grand Cherokee, Ford Explorer, broken down by primary market seg- vehicles replaced by a new model. For and Dodge Caravan. ment. The second table shows the top example, Chevrolet Cobalt includes 30 sellers across all segments. Cavalier. Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Jersey, Vehicles Less Than Five Years Old Used Retail Registrations, YTD 2009 thru October and Market Share of Segment Cars Entry Sub Compact Sporty Compact Standard Mid Size Model Regs.
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