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Master‘s thesis in International Affairs Who Are the Populists in Iceland? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Icelandic Voters Jimena Klauer Morales February 2020 Who Are the Populists in Iceland? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Icelandic Voters Jimena Klauer Morales Final thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of a MA degree in International Affairs Instructor(s): Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson Faculty of Political Science School of Social Sciences, University of Iceland February 2020 Who Are the Populists in Iceland? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Icelandic Voters This final thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment of a MA degree in International Affairs. The thesis may not be copied in any form without the author’s permission. © Jimena Klauer Morales, 2020 ID number (110588-5189). Reykjavik, Iceland, 2020 Abstract Populism has become a buzz word, as everyone, from politicians to the media, throw the term around without much regard to what it truly means. The great majority of the research on populism has been focused on radical right-wing populist movements across Europe, and less attention has been given to left or center populist movements. Additionally, most research focuses on the causes of populism, and less so on the characteristics of the individuals who display populist attitudes. For this reason, the purpose of this research is to identify the individual-level attributes and party preferences of populist supporters in Iceland. To do this, the thesis analyzes the repercussions of the 2008 economic crisis and assesses whether the political events that followed the “crash” were the catalyst for the rise of center-left populism. Through the interpretation of the post-crisis election results, the study postulates who are the individuals who are most likely to display populist attitudes. To substantiate the hypotheses, the study builds a theoretically-consistent and empirically-sound mechanism to measure populist attitudes, through the creation of a “populism scale”. Using the populism scale, the research then assesses whether there exists a relationship between populist attitudes and individual- level characteristics and party preferences. 3 Útdráttur Lýðhyggja, eða pópúlismi (e. populism), virðist vera orðið ákveðið tískuorð í umræðunni og er reglulega notað m.a. af stjórnmálamönnum og fjölmiðlum án þess að taka tillits til réttrar merkingar hugtaksins. Mikill meirihluti rannsókna á lýðhyggju hafa beinst að öfgahægrisinnuðum lýðhyggju hreyfingum í Evrópu á meðan stefnur til vinstri og til miðju hafa verið töluvert minna rannsakaðar. Þar að auki hefur meirihluti rannsóknarefnisins snúið að orsökum og upptökum lýðhyggju en síður að persónueinkennum þeirra einstaklinga sem aðhyllast eða sýna fram á lýðhyggju viðhorf. Af þessum sökum er markmið þessarar ritgerðar að rannsaka og bera kennsl á persónubundin einkenni og flokksstuðning þeirra einstaklinga sem aðhyllast lýðhyggju á Íslandi. Til að ná markmiðum rannsóknarinnar eru afleiðingar efnahagshrunsins 2008 skoðaðar og greindar og metið hvort að pólitísk atburðarás í kjölfar hrunsins hafi lagt grunninn að uppgangi mið-vinstri lýðhyggju á Íslandi. Á grundvelli þessara upplýsinga eru lagðar fram tilgátur í þessari ritgerð um hvaða einstaklingar eru líklegastir til þess að sýna fram á lýðhyggju viðhorf með túlkun kosninganiðurstaðna í kjölfar hrunsins. Til stuðnings er notaður og þróaður svokallaður lýðhyggju mælikvarði (e. populism scale). Mælikvarðinn er notaður til þess að meta hvort það sé samband á milli lýðhyggju viðhorfa og persónueinkenna og stuðning við stjórnmálaflokka. 4 Preface When I was growing up in Peru in the 1990s, the term populism was particularly prevalent, first being used to describe Alberto Fujimori, and later many other Latin American figures, like Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales. As I grew up and developed a passion for politics and international relations, I understood that populism was “bad”, but never fully understood why. After much research for this thesis, I understand that populism poses a challenge to liberal democracy, and that there can be many negative, both national and international, implications to the existence of populist movements, as it is being proven by the case of the Venezuelan crisis. However, it is important to add that populism is also a manifestation of the short-comings of our current political system, as it demonstrates how it is not truly fulfilling the demands of all its citizens. We currently live in a partly democratic society, and though populism is not the answer, it is not worth dismissing as an act of ignorance carried on my the educated and poor. Populism is an incredibly complex subject that must be studied and understood in an effort to tackle the “populist zeitgeist” that exists today. This thesis accounts for 30 ECTS credits towards a Masters of the Arts degree in International Affairs from the University of Iceland. The writing of this thesis required the assistance of my colleagues, my “International Crew”, Lindsey, Stefan and Vittorio. Additionally, a big thank you goes out to my sister Ale, brother-in-law, niece, and little Rocko, who physically and emotionally took care of me while writing part of this thesis. Lastly, I could not have done this without the constant emotional support of my whole family, including my mother, grandmother, sister Marisol and, of course, my father, to whom I dedicate this thesis. My father inspired my love (and sometimes hatred) for politics and helped me understand that in order to ameliorate this crazy world we must first understand it. Finally, I would like to thank my thesis adviser, Gunnar H. Kristinsson, for his comments and advice during the writing of this thesis. I would also like to thank all my professors, who guided me and inspired me through the past 3 years. 5 6 Table of contents Abstract ................................................................................................................... 3 Útdráttur .................................................................................................................. 4 Preface ..................................................................................................................... 5 List of Tables ............................................................................................................ 9 List of Figures ........................................................................................................... 9 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Purpose of the Thesis and Research Questions...................................................11 1.2 Presentation of the Study and Structure of Thesis ..............................................13 2 Theoretical Perspective and Definitions .............................................................. 15 2.1 Populism ..............................................................................................................15 2.1.1 The People ..................................................................................................18 2.1.2 The Elite ......................................................................................................19 2.1.3 Elitism .........................................................................................................20 2.1.4 Pluralism .....................................................................................................21 2.2 The Role of Populism in a Liberal Democracy .....................................................22 2.3 Political Trust and Populism ................................................................................24 2.4 The Rise of Populism in Europe ...........................................................................25 2.5 Setting the Stage: The Economic Crisis ................................................................27 2.6 Three Phases for the Rise of Left and Center-Left Populist Parties .....................28 2.7 Expectations and Hypotheses ..............................................................................29 3 Methodology ..................................................................................................... 34 3.1 Research Design ...................................................................................................34 3.2 The Dependent Variable: The Populism Scale .....................................................36 3.2.1 Assessing the Accuracy of the Populism Scale ...........................................36 3.2.2 Interpreting the Populism Questions .........................................................37 3.2.3 Creating the Populism Scale .......................................................................38 3.3 The Independent Variables and Coding...............................................................39 3.4 Data Analysis ........................................................................................................40 3.5 Notes on Language and Possible Limitations ......................................................41 4 Iceland as a Case Study ....................................................................................... 42 4.1 Iceland and the Economic Crisis ..........................................................................43 4.2 Three Phases for the Rise of Center-Left Populism .............................................44 4.2.1 Phase One ...................................................................................................44

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