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Defence Forces Review 2020 Defence Forces Review 2020 Defence Forces Review 2020 Defence Forces Review 2020 ISSN 1649-7066 DISCLAIMER The material and views expressed in these papers are those of the authors, which have been subject to academic peer review, and do not indicate official approval of the Defence Forces or the Department of Defence. Published for the Military Authorities by the Public Relations Section at the Chief of Staff’s Branch, and printed at the Defence Forces Printing Press, Infirmary Road, Dublin 7. © Copyright in accordance with Section 56 of the Copyright Act, 1963, Section 7 of the University of Limerick Act, 1989 and Section 6 of the Dublin University Act, 1989. 1 Launch of the Defence Forces Review In conjunction with an Academic Seminar Dublin City University, 3rd December, 2020 Defence Forces Review 2020 Preface “Not all readers are leaders, but all leaders are readers.” (Harry Truman, US President 1945 – ‘53) Building on the success of last year’s Review, launch and positive reaction 2020’s Review is themed ‘The global island: Strategic implications for Irish defence planning in the evolving geopolitical landscape.’ This is a pertinent topic in light of the Defence Commission proposed in the 2020 Programme for Government, which is set to look at “the medium- and longer term defence requirements of the State…” The Defence Forces Review provides a forum in which contributors can present their research and facilitate discussion on a wide range of defence-related matters for the benefit of the wider Defence Community in Ireland and beyond. Sadly, due to Covid 19 restrictions we will be unable to have a normal launch of the Review. My thanks to the Editor of the Defence Forces Review for 2020, Lieutenant Commander Paul Hegarty. Despite a very heavy schedule working on the staff of the Command and Staff School, he continued this editorial burden with energy and commitment, displaying a commendable level of ambition for this project. For this year’s edition, he has had the pleasure of working in academic collaboration with the Dublin City University School of Law and Government. A special word of gratitude to his fellow editor, Assistant Professor Caitriona Dowd (Security Studies, DCU) for her expert insights and invaluable contributions in making this collaborative effort a success. Additionally, a team of expert academics from DCU contributed to the peer review process, thus enhancing the academic quality of the publication. Again, many thanks to all our contributors without whose commitment and generosity the production and publication of this year’s review would not be possible. Further copies of the Review are available from the Defence Forces Public Relations Branch at [email protected] or online at http://www.military.ie/info-centre/publications/defence- forces-review. Gavin Young Lieutenant Colonel Officer in Charge Public Relations Branch 3 Defence Forces Review 2020 Editor's Notes Resolving the tension between foresight and inherent uncertainty is the holy grail of sound strategy. Dr Frank Hoffman As Ireland seeks to expand its role in global affairs, the emergence of complex and challenging issues, coupled with the re-emergence of threats previously believed to have ceased, presents unique challenges. Evolving global trends require countries to stop focussing solely on continuity, as this provided an unrealistically linear and predictable view of the future and risks, missing weak signals of potentially major change. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic highlights the need for astute and adaptive planning, as disruptive events are becoming more prevalent and will have shared international consequences, thus necessitating collective and coordinated action. Ireland, as a global island, will continue to become more interconnected with the global commons, but inherent in such evolution is risk. A multi-polar world presents significant challenges and opportunities, as the balance of power shifts and states reposition themselves in an as yet uncertain international order. Key trends include accelerating urbanisation and resources in ever- higher demand, set against the backdrop of climate crisis and its associated impact. Concurrently, changes in the patterns and dynamics of violence, and in particular, the targeting and protection of civilians in conflict, present major obstacles to effective and coordinated responses to some of the world’s gravest crises. Failure to look beyond our internal bias and self-assured perception of safety must be factored into our future-oriented decision-making processes. The rise of far-right extremism presents an additional and complex challenge, as governments will have to contend with issues surrounding their credibility, legitimacy and accountability. Coupled with this, is the threat of growing criminalisation and corruption, in a world where the increased trafficking of drugs, weapons and people across porous borders will remain a global security problem. Technology will continue to be a driver of change though developments such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and robotics, and will challenge society and the rules that govern it, particularly as digitisation fundamentally transforms how people interact. Simultaneously, there is increasing awareness internationally, and nationally, of the important role Ireland can play in peace mediation, fostering dialogue and building consensus in the face of these uncertainties. So too, is there greater appreciation of the vital contribution and leadership that historically more marginalised constituencies, such as women and youth, can make to international peace and security. Therefore, navigating the resulting threats and opportunities will require adaptation and action. The utility of the military instrument in supporting national foreign policy will be important in the coming decades. Last year’s edition of the Defence Forces Review explored some of the themes modern militaries are now considering as they prepare themselves for supporting and contributing to their respective nations shared prosperity and stability through the application of hard and soft power. The global Irish diaspora allows Ireland to have strong cultural and social links across the globe and contributes to the use of soft power as a force multiplier for achieving influence worldwide. International institutions such as the United Nations and European Union will be critical, not least because of Ireland’s commitment to multilateralism and to supporting 4 Defence Forces Review 2020 and building peace globally. So too will the role of the Defence Forces in supporting this national approach through defence engagement and deployment on multi-national operations. However, military soft power will only be effective if it is underpinned by credibility. The upcoming commission on the Defence Forces must acknowledge the innate need for a state to have a functioning and modern military force. Moreover, the balance of investment needed for each function will inevitably evolve to meet future challenges as the military instrument is likely to change, necessitating new approaches and capabilities. Never in our history has the need for a ‘whole of government’ approach been so necessary and warranted. This year’s edition of the Defence Forces Review is published in academic collaboration with Dublin City University School of Law and Government. It reflects on the myriad of challenges and opportunities facing Ireland at the national and international level, and their impact on how defence policy and planning is, and will be, conducted in Ireland over the coming decades. This year’s review invited a broad, yet comprehensive critical analysis underpinned by an aspiration to contribute to the national discourse on enhancing our ability to improve foresight on the strategies required for navigating a world that is becoming ever more complex and volatile. The review concludes with short biographical details of the authors who kindly contributed to this year’s edition. The Editorial team would like to thank the contributors for their enthusiasm and willingness to prepare papers for submission, thereby participating in the important dialogue on what challenges and opportunities exist for a Global Island, domestically, in the EU, and at the UN. We are greatly indebted to our panel of expert external reviewers who took the time to analyse each paper, and the Defence Forces Printing Press (DFPP), in particular, Capt. James Mulderrig, and Pte Shane Curran, for their time, patience and professionalism in delivering a high quality finished product. Editorial Team Lt Cdr Paul Hegarty Dr Caitriona Dowd Command &Staff School School of Law and Government, DCU 5 Defence Forces Review 2020 Editor's Biographical Statement Lt Cdr Paul Hegarty PhD joined the Defence Forces in 2000 as a member of the 40th Naval Cadet Class and currently works as an instructor in the Command and Staff School. He has held several sea- going appointments, and has served in a variety of command, staff and training appointments. He has completed the Royal Navy International Long Navigation Course at HMS Collingwood, holds a BSc in Nautical Science (CIT), a Masters in Project Management (UL) and an H-Dip in Geographical Information Systems (UCC). He is a graduate of the UK Joint Services Command and Staff College and completed the Advanced Command and Staff Course in2018 while completing an MA in Defence Studies from King’s College London. Paul recently completed his PhD research, which focused on Change Management in military organisations and examined
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