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The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford

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The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford April 2021 The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 Introduction This study presents a business case for two improvements, estimated to cost up to $3 billion, proposed rail improvements in the Connecticut would boost speed, reliability, and access. Valley region: the completion of the bi-state The East-West Rail project in Massachusetts Hartford Line and implementation of the East- would connect Springfield to Worcester and West Rail project in Massachusetts. These Boston, and potentially westward to Pittsfield. improvements, which intersect at the traditional These services nominally exist today, but regional crossroads of Springfield Union Station, with only one train in each direction (Amtrak’s would connect to other current and future rail Lakeshore Limited), unreliable performance, and improvements in New England. The analysis uncompetitively slow speeds—about an hour presented here examines the economic potential of the Hartford-Springfield region and the ability of Figure 1: Metro Hartford-Springfield enhanced passenger rail service to help achieve and the Northeast that potential. NY Worcester This report presents the study’s background Boston and key findings in a narrative format. A longer Springfield and more detailed analysis, including the documentation of all assumptions, methods, Hartford and results, is available in the accompanying New Haven Technical Appendix. The Hartford Line, a regional rail service New York connecting New Haven, Hartford, and Springfield, NJJ opened in 2018, following a significant investment in the corridor’s rail infrastructure and rollingMD KEY stock.1 The work remaining to be done includes Northeast Mega Region electrification, additional rolling stock, a replacement of the Connecticut RiverVA Bridge at Northeast Corridor (NEC) Counties Windsor Locks, double-tracking of key segments, Metro Hartford-Springfield five new or relocated stations, and upgrading the downtown Hartford rail viaduct. These Northeast Corridor (NEC) Rail Line 21st century Inland Route The analysis presented here examines the economic potential of the Hartford-Springfield region and the ability of enhanced passenger rail service to help achieve that potential. Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 1 The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 longer than driving in mid-day conditions. While to the Northeast Corridor and other US metro several alternatives remain in play, an investment areas, Hartford-Springfield has undergone in the $4 billion range would cut nearly an hour a prolonged period of low rail use and low off the Springfield-Boston trip, enable at least overall rail/transit use--both in general and 10 round trips per day, and provide comfort and among those who work in information, finance, reliability. In Boston, the train would stop not only and professional services jobs. These are the at South Station, with its instant connections to jobs that are particularly attracted to rail/transit the Red and Silver Lines and much of downtown connectivity elsewhere in the Northeast. accessible on foot, but at the key destinations 3. A structural shortfall. Since 1990, annual of Back Bay, the Longwood Medical Area job growth in Metro Hartford-Springfield (Lansdowne Station), and the future multimodal has lagged far behind that of the Northeast hub at West Station.2 Corridor as a whole, representing about Together, the East-West Line and the completed 130,000 jobs not created. Job growth has Hartford Line would reconstitute a 21st century been particularly weak in the key sectors version of the old Inland Route—regular train of information, finance, and professional service from Boston to New York via Worcester, services, accompanied by aging housing Springfield, Hartford, and New Haven—which the stock, slow housing construction, and slow region has lacked for decades. It would create a population and wage growth. In short, Metro regional network of great versatility and economic Hartford-Springfield has fallen structurally potential, combining intercity service all along the behind the rest of the Northeast Corridor. corridor with high-frequency, transit-like. service in the Hartford-Springfield core.3 The key findings of The Economic Opportunity this study may be summarized as follows. 4. Missing growth sector jobs. Conservatively, some 20,000 to 40,000 jobs in information, Decades of Disinvestment finance, and professional services are 1. A distinct and consequential region. “missing” from Metro Hartford-Springfield Metro Hartford-Springfield is a distinct and due to the lack of regional and intercity rail consequential economic region, with a connectivity. With rail connectivity restored, population of 1.6 million, a GDP of $120 billion, these jobs, which have fueled growth 20 colleges and universities, two historic elsewhere in the Northeast, can be attracted downtowns, and New England’s second over time. largest airport. As a metro area, it would 5. Transit-oriented development. Between rank among the 40 largest in the US. Nearby New Haven and Worcester, the Inland Route Worcester and New Haven have combined rail improvements would serve 16 existing metro populations of 1.8 million. Yet the and future stations. Recent and planned Hartford-Springfield economy is isolated and development in these station areas suggests lagging. a strong market of interconnected residential 2. A gap in the rail/transit network. Metro communities, employment centers, and public Hartford-Springfield lost most of its intercity destinations. A capacity analysis reveals an rail service, starting in the 1970s. Compared aggregate station area potential of about 20 Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 2 The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 million square feet of commercial development economy in response to climate change, and a and 30,000 housing units gravitation to smaller, well-connected cities in response to COVID-19—would reinforce and 6. Economic benefits far in excess of costs. amplify the outcomes projected in this report.4 Together, these two outcomes—the gradual attraction of 20,000-40,000 “missing” Context: A Region Structurally professional service jobs and the construction Behind of station-area development—account for an estimated $47 to $84 billion in directly This study defines Metro Hartford-Springfield as generated regional GDP over 30 years, a region of three contiguous counties: Hartford including $27 to $48 billion in wages. An County in Connecticut, and Hampden and additional $15 to $21 billion of indirect and Hampshire Counties in Massachusetts.5 As shown induced GDP is estimated as well in Figure 1, Metro Hartford-Springfield is part of the Northeast Corridor (NEC) served by Amtrak The compactness of Southern New England and several regional rail providers, as well as creates a natural market for regional and intercity the larger northeast mega-region stretching from rail. Two emerging trends--a decarbonizing FIGURE 1 Total jobs index Figure(1980 =2: 100, Total percent Jobs Index growth (1980 over = baseline)100), Percent Growth Over Baseline 160 150 Corridor excluding Boston, D.C., N.Y.C. counties Northeast Corridor 140 Hartford, Hampden, Hampshire 130 120 110 100 90 80 ‘80 ‘82 ‘84 ‘86 ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘18 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2020 SOURCE: BEA, 2020 Figure 3: Growth Comparison (Compound Annual growth Rate, 2010-2019) Region GRP Population Jobs Wages Metro Hartford-Springfield 2.9% 0.04% 0.83% 2.08% Northeast Corridor 4.0% 0.38% 1.43% 2.34% Northeast Megaregion 3.8% 0.42% 1.29% 2.29% Source: EMSI, 2020 Prepared for the Capitol Region Council of Governments (CRCOG) by AECOM 3 The Economic Benefits of Regional Rail Investment in Metro Hartford-Springfield April 2021 metropolitan Boston to metropolitan Washington oriented development as a strategy for new DC with over 50 million residents. A core finding is infill housing. that, when compared to the rest of the Northeast • As shown in Figure 3, the net result is low Corridor, Metro Hartford-Springfield has fallen growth, not only in jobs but in Gross Regional significantly behind in economic performance. Product, population, and wages—a structurally • Compared to job growth in the Northeast lagging regional economy compared to the Corridor as a whole (1.1% annually) since larger Northeast. 1990, Metro Hartford-Springfield has followed a slower growth trajectory (0.6% annual job Connectivity: Transit, Regional growth); representing about 130,000 jobs not Rail, Intercity Rail created across Metro Hartford-Springfield Is the gap in economic performance and since 1990. This gap is illustrated in Figure 2. trajectory related to rail service? A majority of • In contrast with peer metro regions (NEC and key NEC regional markets benefit economically nationally), and despite established strength from a combination of traditional public transit in insurance and related service industries, (buses and, in major metropolitan centers, rapid Metro Hartford-Springfield is defined by weak transit); commuter rail (or as it is increasingly job creation across information, finance, and called, regional rail) in the Boston, New York, professional services (including insurance, in Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington which
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