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Successful Climate Protection Via Rapid Coal Phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia

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Successful Climate Protection Via Rapid Coal Phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Göke, Leonard et al. Article Successful climate protection via rapid coal phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia DIW Weekly Report Provided in Cooperation with: German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) Suggested Citation: Göke, Leonard et al. (2018) : Successful climate protection via rapid coal phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia, DIW Weekly Report, ISSN 2568-7697, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin, Vol. 8, Iss. 33, pp. 301-311 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/182111 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu 8 1 DIW Weekly Report 33 20 AT A GLANCE Successful climate protection via rapid coal phaseout in Germany and North Rhine- Westphalia By Leonard Göke, Martin Kittel, Claudia Kemfert, Casimir Lorenz, Pao-Yu Oei, and Christian von Hirschhausen • Energy economic model calculations on alternative paths for a coal phaseout up to 2030 • Only a rapid coal phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia will satisfy the climate targets for 2030 advancing the decarbonization of Europe at the same time • An adequate contribution to 2020 climate targets can only be achieved by an additional limit on annual operating of coal plants • In the traditional energy state North Rhine-Westphalia, a coal phaseout will make a positive contri- bution to environmental protection in lignite regions • Policymakers should create the conditions for a coal phaseout and transition to a flexible, renewa- ble electricity system Possible paths for an accelerated coal phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia and their effect on the fulfillment of the German climate targets in the electricity sector in 2030 Capacities of coal power plants ... and North Rhine-Westphalia CO2 emissions in the electricity sector in 2030 under the different in Germany… phaseout paths (in million tons CO2) (in gigawatts) 250 2020 2030 2020 2030 200 40 15 150 30 10 20 100 5 10 50 0 0 0 Reference Moderate … with limitation Rapid phaseout on annual phaseout Lignite Reference operating time Hard coal Moderate phaseout Natural gas Hard coal Lignite Rapid phaseout Miscanellous (oil, waste, other) Emission target Source: Authors' own depiction, authors' own calculations © DIW Berlin 2018 FROM THE AUTHORS MEDIATHEK “The coal phaseout in Germany is necessary for climate protection and makes sense for the energy sector.” — Claudia Kemfert, survey author — Audio interview with Claudia Kemfert (in German) www.diw.de/mediathek COAL PHASEOUT IN GERMANY Successful climate protection via rapid coal phaseout in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia By Leonard Göke, Martin Kittel, Claudia Kemfert, Casimir Lorenz, Pao-Yu Oei, and Christian von Hirschhausen According to its climate protection targets, by 2020 the ABSTRACT German government aspires to reduce greenhouse gas emis- sions in Germany by 40 percent, using 1990 as the base year.1 Power generation from lignite and hard coal was responsible There should be a 55 percent reduction by 2030.2 The energy for more than a quarter of German greenhouse gas emissions industry is slated to make a major contribution to the effort in 2016. Of all federal states, North Rhine-Westphalia is by far by switching to renewable energy.3 Greenhouse gas emis- the largest carbon emitter. The Growth, Structural Change sions are targeted to fall by slightly more than 60 percent as compared to 1990.4 Currently, the likelihood of meeting and Regional Development Commission (also known as “Coal the targets is bleak: without any extra measures, Germany Commission”) among others are currently debating alterna- can expect a total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of tive pathways toward a coal phaseout to achieve the national only 35.5 percent by 2020. One reason is that great quanti- climate targets. The Coal Commission has been tasked with ties of lignite and hard coal continue to be used in generat- ing electricity.5 submitting specific recommendations by the end of 2018. Supported by detailed model calculations, the present study Formed by the federal government to respond to the cir- shows that a rapid reduction in coal-fired power generation cumstances, the Growth, Structural Change and Regional nationwide and in North Rhine-Westphalia is necessary to Development Commission (more generally referred to as the “Coal Commission”) has been working on its coal phaseout meet the climate targets in 2030. According to the German proposal since June 2018. The goal is a phaseout that reduces government’s climate protection plan, emissions in the energy the climate target shortfall for 2020 and meets the target for sector must fall by about 60 percent as compared to 1990. 2030, while at the same time creating opportunities for future- The analysis also shows that a German phaseout promotes proof jobs in the affected regions. By the end of this year, the commission is expected to present concrete policies. decarbonization and the expansion of renewable energies throughout Europe. And in North Rhine-Westphalia, a rapid The federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) plays coal phaseout will be necessary to meet the climate protection a special part in these developments. On the one hand, the targets. All lignite power plants and many plants that run on state parliament adopted a climate protection law in 2013 that prescribes a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by hard coal could be shut down by 2030. The phaseout of lignite 2020 of at least 25 percent and by 2050, at least 80 percent mining in NRW could be designed such that surface mine Garzweiler II would no longer engulf any villages; the forest 1 Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, “Klimaschutz in the Hambach surface mine that is worth conserving would in Zahlen – Fakten, Trends und Impulse deutsche Klimapolitik,” (2018) (in German; available online, ac- also be saved. cessed: July 23, 2018; this applies to all other online sources in this report unless stated otherwise). 2 Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, “Kli- maschutzplan 2050 – Klimaschutzpolitische Grundsätze und Ziele der Bundesregierung,” (2016) (in Ger- man; available online). 3 In total, the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy industry was 86 percent of total emissions in 2016. See Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, “Zahlen und Fakten. Energiedat- en – Nationale und Internationale Entwicklung,” (2018) (in German; available online). 4 Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, “Kli- maschutzplan 2050.” In the German government’s climate protection targets for 2050, Klimaschutzplan 2050, electricity and heat generation are combined as the energy industry. The present study only tackles the power supply. 5 German Federal Environmental Agency, “Coal-fired power generation and climate protection until 2030,” (2017) (available online). 302 DIW Weekly Report 33/2018 COAL PHASEOUT IN GERMANY compared to the base year 1990.6 This positions the state as Table 1 one of the pioneers of climate protection policy – at least on Possible paths for a coal phaseout in Germany paper. On the other hand, of all German federal states NRW Power plant capacities in gigawatts is currently the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Part of the reason is that at ten gigawatts and eight gigawatts respec- Path Technology 2015 2020 2030 tively, half of the capacity of Germany’s lignite power plants Reference Hard coal 24.7 19.1 16.5 and almost one-third of power plants that run on hard coal Lignite 21.0 18.2 10.2 are located in the state. The lignite power plants in NRW Moderate phaseout Hard coal 24.7 19.1 16.5 alone were responsible for ten percent of Germany’s total Lignite 21.0 15.2 0.6 carbon emissions in 2014.7 And the proportion of renewable Rapid phaseout Hard coal 24.7 19.1 8.6 energy in the power generation mix is currently 12.5 percent Lignite 21.0 11.2 0.0 there – far below the nationwide average of 36 percent.8 For Source: Authors’ own depiction. this reason, NRW is key to the successful implementation of the energy transition in Germany.9 © DIW Berlin 2018 Emission-intensive lignite power plants will be almost completely shut down by 2030; The present study identifies three possible paths to the lig- in a rapid phaseout, capacities of hard coal power plants are also significantly reduced. nite and hard coal phaseout in Germany within the context of the European electricity system. For each path, a model calculation of the European electricity system analyzes the The two accelerated paths follow proposals for the early shut- effect on carbon emissions for 2020 and 2030, describing down of coal-fired power plants by 2020 that were discussed the resulting mixture of generation technologies. Next, the during the coalition talks in November 2017.13 The paths are study examines the impact of each path on NRW.
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