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Afreecatv (067160 KQ) Platform Offers Same Explosive Potential As LINE and Kakaotalk

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Afreecatv (067160 KQ) Platform Offers Same Explosive Potential As LINE and Kakaotalk AfreecaTV (067160 KQ) Platform offers same explosive potential as LINE and KakaoTalk IT S/W & SVC User-generated live content broadcast service continues to attract viewers AfreecaTV, a video streaming service, has been gaining rapid popularity. The site Company Report primarily retransmits TV channels, and allows users (Broadcast Jockeys – BJ) to upload January 28, 2014 their own videos or shows. The range of live content is broadening (music, sports, current affairs, education and games), as viewership is expanding and the average age group of viewers is widening from 10s-20s to 30s-40s. Not Rated We attribute the company’s ongoing growth of traffic to its unique business ecosystem, which enourages BJs to continuously develop content that attracts more viewers. We Target Price (12M, W) - expect the increase in traffic to boost sales of Star Balloons (virtual currency), which viewers gift to BJs as a form of gratitude, and further drive ad revenue growth. Already, Share Price (01/27/14, W) 9,730 the share of ad revenue is seeing a pickup, with item-to-ad sales ratio estimated to have changed from 7/3 in 2012 to 6/4 in 2013 (roughly 5/5 in 2015F). Expected Return - Another popular feature offered by AfreecaTV is its unique game platform. As game channels are accessible via its own game center (like mobile messenger KakaoTalk Game OP (13F, Wbn) 4 Center), where BJs partner with other BJs (the “clan”) to engage in combat games, it is Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 4 attracting combat game developers that want to use its platform. Given the game EPS Growth (13F, %) - center’s huge popularity (more than half of the broadcast channels and viewers are Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 4.4 dedicated to games), we believe the clan-based games community will further drive P/E (13F, x) 158.1 success of AfreecaTV’s game platform. Market P/E (13F, x) 12.4 KOSDAQ 507.51 Game unit likely to pose short-term risk AfreecaTV’s online game Tales Runner has been a steady source of revenue for the Market Cap (Wbn) 96 company, but it has recently seen a visible decline. Nevertheless, it continues to serve as Shares Outstanding (mn) 10 a cash cow for the company. As the company in recent years invested aggressively in Free Float (%) 75.4 mobile game development, we may, in the short term, see earnings volatility. While the Foreign Ownership (%) 6.3 contraction in game revenues is likely to slow thanks to its core users, it should affect Beta (12M) 1.24 52-Week Low 6,390 the company’s earnings visibility for now. 52-Week High 13,200 Deeply undervalued to peers (%) 1M 6M 12M Trading at 2014F P/E of 17.0x, AfreecaTV appears deeply undervalued compared to its Absolute 7.0 -26.3 35.1 peers (video sharing/streaming service providers). Indeed, Netflix is trading at a 2014F Relative 4.8 -20.8 35.0 P/E of 66.3x. Given that the company’s operating expenses are mostly fixed costs (high 190 AfreecaTV KOSDAQ operating leverage), we expect top-line growth to improve profitability. 170 150 130 110 90 70 1.13 5.13 9.13 1.14 Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (12) 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 48 49 49 63 77 [Small Cap] OP (Wbn) 4 4 4 10 19 Daewoo Lee OP Margin (%) 8.3 8.2 8.2 15.9 24.7 +822-768-4132 NP (Wbn) 1 1 1 6 16 [email protected] EPS (W) 87 58 58 573 1,335 ROE (%) 2.7 1.6 1.6 15.5 30.9 P/E (x) 90.5 158.1 158.1 17.0 7.3 P/B (x) 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. January 28, 2014 AfreecaTV Overview AfreecaTV is Korea’s largest live broadcast TV platform with practically no rivals. The company was initially a collection of many businesses, including web hard, P2P, and content delivery network (CDN). However, it now leverages its knowhow in traffic management/distribution to live broadcasting and games. After the sale of its web hard and CDN businesses in 2012, the company took a 20% stake in Rhaon Entertainment, the developer of the company’s cash cow game, Tales Runner, and gained control of BLUEWIND, a mobile game developer. Recent drastic changes in the company’s overall businesses (except for Tales Runner) have caused a rise in non-operating one-offs, which will likely persist for the time being. The company’s operations are mainly divided into the platform and game businesses. The platform business generates revenues from 1) sales of Star Balloons (virtual currency that is exchangeable for real cash), a gift that viewers give BJs in the form of gratitude, 2) ads, and 3) fees from gaming companies (which account for only a minimal portion). The game business is driven by domestic and overseas revenues from its own online game Tales Runner. In addition, the company has recently invested in developing mobile games and offers its mobile games on the highly popular mobile messenger KakaoTalk Game Center. Figure 1. Shareholding structure Figure 2. Business model Platform Game Mobile gamesMobile Saint Items International 21% Treasury Advertisement shares Onlinegames 3% s Other 76% commissionsGame Source: AfreecaTV, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: AfreecaTV, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Platform business Broadcast platform AfreecaTV started its live broadcast platform business in 2005. The company attributes the successful launch of the live broadcast business model in Korea to 1) its traffic distribution/management knowhow and 2) Korea’s widespread access to low-cost broadband internet. The broadcast platform business division has recently started to cover its fixed costs amid steady traffic growth. In addition, we expect traffic to continue to increase in the near term, given 1) its growing reputation as a source of quality live broadcasts and 2) upcoming major sporting events. Internet companies that rely on traffic without a profit model need to endure the burden of heavy marketing expenditures, until traffic reaches significant levels. As such, those with a weak capital base will likely struggle to stabilize their business. However, AfreecaTV was able to weather the cost burden during its early stage, backed by 1) stable cash flow from online gaming, webhard, P2P and CDN services, and 2) Star Balloon sales. A Star Balloon, valued at W100 each, are gifted to BJs in the form of gratitude. Popular Star BJs can earn several hundred million won annually. When BJs decide to exchange the Star Balloons for real cash, AfreecaTV takes a cut of 30-40%, depending on the BJs sales volume. Recently, applications to become BJs have soared amid the rising public recognition of BJs. This has fueled competitiveness among BJs, leading to qualitative/quantitative improvement in live broadcast content and the emergence of new live broadcast genres. KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 January 28, 2014 AfreecaTV AfreecaTV appears to have attracted new viewers in their 30s and 40s, by securing broadcast rights to major league Korean baseball players in the US in 2013. Furthermore, we expect viewer traffic to get a boost as major sporting events are slated to be held this year, including the Winter Olympics, the World Cup finals, and Asian Games. We also note the steady expansion of AfreecaTV’s viewing age group, which is leading to greater diversification of broadcast content AfreecaTV has made great strides to improve its reputation and legitimacy as a provider of quality content for the general public. The company does not permit adult or non-licensed content, and has the ability to block such content within five to ten minutes. Given the company’s strong monitoring capability, which is even superior to YouTube, we believe AfreecaTV’s valuation should not receive a discount for concerns of adult or non-licensed content distribution. Noteworthy is that the broadcasting platform’s revenue driver is shifting from Star Balloon sales to advertising sales. The percentage of advertising sales in total broadcasting platform revenue is estimated to rise from 30% in 2012 and 40% in 2013 to 50% in 2015. We believe further growth in advertising sales will require 1) steady traffic growth and 2) greater public trust in the company’s content. We are optimistic about the company’s traffic growth this year on the back of major sporting events scheduled for 2014, and rising popularity of its services. The company’s concurrent unique visitors (UV), which currently stands at under 3mn, are projected to increase to over 4mn this year. The reputation of AfreecaTV’s broadcasting services are also improving with its viewer base expanding to people in their 30s and 40s. Furthermore, its recent partnership with YouTube should further lift the reputation of its services, and boost traffic. Figure 3. Online and mobile traffic trends ('000 persons) 3,000 Peak mobile daily UV Peak PC daily UV 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 5/13 7/13 9/13 11/13 Source: AfreecaTV, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Considering the nature of user-created (personal) content, the company is likely to see limitations in domestic traffic growth peak.
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