Lucas Issacharoff Innovations for Successful Societies KEEPING THE PEACE IN A TENSE ELECTION: GHANA, 2008 SYNOPSIS In 2008, Ghana held a peaceful run-off in a hotly contested presidential race, breaking the pattern of violence that had afflicted elections in Nigeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe and several other African countries during the same period. Since the advent of multi-party democracy in 1992, Ghana had held three consecutive elections that observers regarded as relatively free and fair. However, the 2008 presidential race generated concern. Previous elections had revealed substantial ethnic block voting, raising allegations of misbehavior by the two major parties both during the campaign and on polling day. Tensions were increased further in 2008 by the closeness of the initial ballot, which forced the country’s first run-off in which the outcome was genuinely uncertain. This case study analyzes the measures taken by the Electoral Commission and other bodies to reduce the likelihood of violence, including an emphasis on transparency as a way to build trust. With the help of other groups, the commission also organized a system for identifying potential trouble spots, mediating, and building cooperation. In large part because of these efforts, Ghanaians experienced a peaceful transfer of power. Lucas Issacharoff drafted this case study with the help of Daniel Scher on the basis of interviews conducted in Accra, Ghana, in January 2010 and using interviews conducted by Ashley McCants and Jennifer Burnett in August 2008. INTRODUCTION these things getting out of hand.” Reflecting Vincent Crabbe, a former justice of on the outcome of the election, he commented, Ghana’s Supreme Court and co-chairman of “If things had gone badly, it would be to the the Coalition of Domestic Election Observers, discredit of the country as a whole. … It was a clearly recalled the tension that he and his question of saving the integrity of the country.” colleagues experienced in 2008 as his country During the preceding decade and a half, headed toward its fourth democratic election. Ghana had acquired a reputation as one of “The possibility of violence was not ruled out,” Africa’s better economic and political he observed. “We knew what was going on performers, but the instability of its early years [and] had to take care about the possibility of still cast a shadow. After gaining © 2010, Trustees of Princeton University 1 Terms of use and citation format appear at the end of this document and at http://www.princeton.edu/successfulsocieties. Lucas Issacharoff Innovations for Successful Societies independence from Britain in 1957, the international observers worried that the fierce country endured three rocky decades marked competition might escalate and shatter the by a series of military coups and counter- country’s recent record of peace. The recent coups. Then-Flight Lieutenant Jerry Rawlings history of close elections on the African led a coup in 1979, briefly returned the continent did not bode well. In 2007, country to civilian rule, and then seized power presidential and parliamentary contests in from the civilian government in 1981, marking Nigeria and Kenya had erupted in violence. A the country’s fifth successful military coup close and disputed outcome in the Kenyan since independence. The economy had presidential election at the end of 2007 had contracted through much of the 1970s, and led to roughly 1,000 deaths. In Zimbabwe in Rawlings adopted substantial elements of a March 2008, the incumbent president and his conventional structural-adjustment program, main challenger ran a very tight race and faced cutting the budget, selling public companies a run-off. Clashes between parties, as well as and liberalizing markets. Ghana’s average between opposition campaigners and the annual growth in gross domestic product per police, plagued the campaign. In Zimbabwe, capita increased in the late 1980s and 1990s, as in Kenya, disputes about the outcome hit a plateau, and then rose again, more prompted international concern and the sharply, between 2005 and 2008. dispatch of mediators. Not surprisingly, In 1992, bowing to domestic and tension gripped Ghana as the campaign period international pressure, Rawlings helped to dawned. create the basis for a multi-party system, The discovery of potentially vast offshore legalizing opposition parties and announcing a oil reserves increased the political stakes. date for elections. Although international Revenues would begin to flow during the next observers deemed the resulting vote free and presidential term, creating opportunities for fair, Rawlings’ victory in the presidential race enrichment and patronage. Many worried caused opposition parties to cry foul and that the “resource curse” that plagued other boycott the parliamentary polls. The end countries would soon strike Ghana. Daniel result, after a voter turnout of only 28%, was a Armah-Attoh of the Center for Democratic Parliament in which Rawlings’ National Development (CDD), one of the country’s Democratic Congress (NDC) held nearly every most respected think tanks, characterized the seat. Thereafter, the political climate elections as a fight “for who takes control of the gradually improved. Four years later the nation’s resources.” While such a view was opposition participated fully in competitive unusually stark, the frequency with which elections that international observers and observers pointed to the still-untapped oil opposition parties deemed fair even though reserves indicated that Armah-Attoh was Rawlings and the NDC were returned to hardly alone in his concerns. Emmanuel power. In 2000, Rawlings surprised many by Gyimah-Boadi, director of the CDD, agreed peacefully ceding power to John Kufuor of the that “the allure of ‘state capture’ via the New Patriotic Party (NPP), after Rawlings’ presidency has now been enhanced by the NDC lost the election. Kufuor and the NPP recent discovery of oil reserves off Ghana’s went on to win the 2004 elections. western shores.” As the 2008 elections drew near, opinion Within the ranks for the incumbent party, surveys showed the NDC and the NPP were the NPP, rhetoric had escalated early in the running neck and neck. With the presidential primary period. Seventeen NPP politicians candidates locked in a tight race, domestic and had competed for the chance to be the party’s © 2010, Trustees of Princeton University 2 Terms of use and citation format appear at the end of this document and at http://www.princeton.edu/successfulsocieties. Lucas Issacharoff Innovations for Successful Societies presidential candidate, shelving their official under the incumbent president, Kufuor. John duties and spending heavily on gifts for Atta Mills, vice president under Rawlings and constituents. Newspaper editorials and letters the NDC standard-bearer in the 2000 and to the editor expressed concern. The record 2004 elections, returned as the NDC did not augur well for the campaign itself. candidate. The prospect of victory by either With Kenya and Zimbabwe as vivid side raised serious concerns. An NPP win warnings of the perils of closely contested would give the impression that the incumbent elections, the Electoral Commission, civil party had entrenched itself and a “winner take society groups, non-governmental organizations all” system prevailed. The NDC, out of office and the international community took action for eight years, might not have been willing to to guarantee the fairness and peacefulness of tolerate another term in the opposition. But the elections. The Electoral Commission an NDC victory meant that the incumbent placed enormous emphasis on transparency, NPP would have to give up office, with a seeking to minimize the potential for challenge probable loss of jobs for its supporters. wherever possible. An important non- In the first round, neither presidential governmental group, the Coalition of Domestic candidate won a majority, ensuring a run-off, Election Observers (CODEO), conducted a while parliamentary elections delivered 115 parallel vote survey by tallying the vote in out of 230 seats to the NDC and 107 to the 1,000 polling stations across the country to NPP. Seven seats went mostly to independent check the Electoral Commission’s stated candidates, with the People’s National results. Convention winning two and the Convention Attention also focused on parties and the People’s Party picking up one. One seat public. Because party leaders and activists remained unfilled amid concerns about had often been behind violence that had irregularities. disrupted elections in other countries, the Although it gained only one seat in Electoral Commission created channels for Parliament, the Convention People’s Party—a interparty dialogue, established a code of socialist party once led by the country’s first conduct that was signed by the major parties, president, Kwame Nkrumah—picked up and created a National Peace Council to help enough of the presidential vote in the first mediate disputes. Voter education also had a round to prevent either major party from high priority. Although the country endured gaining an outright majority. some tense moments during the campaign The political parties began to use some of period, the elections concluded without the tactics that had precipitated large-scale disruption and peace prevailed in the period violence in other African countries, including after results were announced. ethnic appeals, fear mongering and payoffs to voters. Gyimah-Boadi noted that “members of THE CHALLENGE