THE ARAB-ISRAELI MILITARY BALANCE Conventional Realities and Asymmetric Challenges Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy And Aram Nerguizian
[email protected] Revised June 29, 2010 Please note that this document is a working draft and will be revised regularly. To comment, or to provide suggestions and corrections, please email the authors at
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[email protected]. Cordesman & Nerguizian: The Arab-Israeli Military Balance 6/29/10 Page 2 Introduction The Arab-Israeli military balance has steadily evolved in recent years to put more and more emphasis on irregular or asymmetric warfare, and the use of military force for political and ideological leverage – both inside the countries involved and in dealing with their neighbors. Most of this focus is driven by the steady strengthening of Hezbollah, and Hamas in Gaza, but it also includes a nascent nuclear arms race between Israel and Iran in which Israel seems to be strengthening both its long-range nuclear and conventional attack capabilities and is clearly strengthening its missile defense capabilities. At the same time, the conventional arms race has continued to narrow down to two countries. While Egyptian, Jordanian and Lebanese military development should not be ignored, the overall balance continues to center on evolving Israeli-Syrian confrontation and brinksmanship in the region. These shifts do not mean the conventional balance has lost its importance. The fact that Israel is at peace with Egypt and Jordan, and has a significant conventional superiority over Syria, has both been a major factor in stabilizing the peace process and deterring conventional clashes and wars.