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05.11.11Hearingtranscript THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA’S MILITARY AND CIVIL SPACE PROGRAM HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION _________ MAY 11, 2011 _________ Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON : 2011 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Hon. WILLIAM A. REINSCH, Chairman DANIEL M. SLANE, Vice Chairman Commissioners: CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW JEFFREY L. FIEDLER DANIEL A. BLUMENTHAL Hon. PATRICK A. MULLOY PETER T.R. BROOKES Hon. DENNIS C. SHEA ROBIN CLEVELAND MICHAEL R. WESSEL Hon. C. RICHARD D’AMATO LARRY M.WORTZEL MICHAEL R. DANIS, Executive Director KATHLEEN J. MICHELS, Associate Director The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C.§ 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the "Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003," Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109-108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law No. 110- 161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. ii June 2, 2011 The Honorable Daniel Inouye President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Washington, D.C. 20510 The Honorable John A. Boehner Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. 20515 DEAR SENATOR INOUYE AND SPEAKER BOEHNER: We are pleased to notify you of the Commission’s May 11, 2011 public hearing on “The Implications of China’s Military and Civil Space Programs.” The Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act (amended by Pub. L. No. 109-108, section 635(a)) provides the basis for this hearing. At the hearing, the Commissioners heard from the following witnesses: Bruce MacDonald of the U.S. Institute of Peace; Barry Watts of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; Mark Stokes of the Project 2049 Institute; Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation; Alanna Krolikowski and Dr. Scott Pace of the George Washington University Space Policy Institute; and Dr. Clay Moltz of the Naval Postgraduate School. The subjects covered included China’s military space and counterspace activities and developments in China’s commercial and civil space capabilities. The hearing reviewed these issues in the context of their implications for the United States. We note that prepared statements for the hearing and supporting documents submitted by the witnesses are available on the Commission’s website at www.uscc.gov. The hearing transcript will also be available soon and will be posted to the Commission’s website. Members and the staff of the Commission are available to provide more detailed briefings. We hope these materials will be helpful to the Congress as it continues its assessment of U.S.-China relations and their impact on U.S. security. The Commission will examine in greater depth these issues, and the other issues enumerated in its statutory mandate, in its 2011 Annual Report that will be submitted to Congress in November 2011. Should you have any questions regarding this hearing or any other issue related to China, please do not hesitate to have your staff contact our Congressional Liaison, Jonathan Weston, 202-624-1487 or via email at [email protected]. Sincerely yours, William A. Reinsch Daniel M. Slane Chairman Vice Chairman iii CONTENTS _____ WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2011 IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA’S MILITARY AND CIVIL SPACE PROGRAM Opening remarks of Commissioner Daniel A. Blumenthal (Hearing Co-Chair)…………………….1 Opening remarks of Commissioner Michael R. Wessel (Hearing Co-Chair)…………………………2 PANEL I: ADMINISTRATION PERSPECTIVES Statement of Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, Department of Defense…………………………………………………………………………….4 Prepared statement……………………………………………………………………………………………………………8 Panel I: Discussion, Questions and Answers……………………………………………………………………….10 PANEL II: CONGRESSIONAL PERSPECTIVES Statement of Frank Wolf, a U.S. Representative from the State of Virginia…………………….25 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………31 PANEL III: CHINA’S MILITARY SPACE PROGRAM Statement of Mr. Mark Stokes, Executive Director, Project 2049 Institute, Washington, DC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………34 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………..36 Statement of Bruce W. MacDonald, Senior Director, United States Institute of Peace, Washington, DC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………40 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………..43 Statement of Mr. Barry Watts, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), Washington, DC………………………………………………………………………………..49 Prepared statement…………………………………………………………………………………………………………52 Panel III: Discussion, Questions and Answers…………………………………………………………………….58 PANEL IV: CHINA’S CIVIL SPACE PROGRAM Statement of Dr. Scott Pace, Director, Space Policy Institute, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, DC…………………………79 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………….82 Dr. James Clay Moltz, Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterrey, California……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………88 iv Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………….90 Statement of Ms. Alanna Krolikowski, Visiting Scholar, The George Washington University Space Policy Institute, Washington, DC, and PhD candidate, University of Toronto………………………97 Prepared statement………………………………………………………………………………………………………….100 Panel IV: Discussion, Questions and Answers……………………………………………………………………..112 ADDITIONAL MATERIAL SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Statement of Dr. Dean Cheng, Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation, Washington, DC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….133 v VSM THE IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA'S MILITARY AND CIVIL SPACE PROGRAMS WEDNESDAY, May 11, 2011 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION The Commission met in Room H-309, The Capitol Building, Washington, D.C. at 9:00 a.m., Chairman William A. Reinsch and Commissioners Daniel A . Blumenthal and Michael R. Wesse l (Hearing Co-Chairs), presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF COMMISSONER DANIEL A. BLUMENTAL HEARING CO-CHAIR HEARING CO-CHAIR BLUMENTHAL: Our hearing will come to order. I am Commissioner Dan Blumenthal, and I'm co -chairing this with my colleague, Commissioner Michael Wessel. I'd like to welcome everybody to the seventh hearing of the U.S. -China Economic and Security Review Commission for our 2011 Annual Report cycle. We're going to examine China's military and civil space programs and the implications for the United States. We've assembled excellent panelists to evaluate these issues, and I'd like to thank Ambassador Schulte first for being here. The United States has friends and allies throughout the Asia -Pacific. Some of our most important bilateral relations are in the Pacific, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and others. Our ties with these nations are based on shared economic interests, often sha red values, as well, but each has important military and security dimensions. Each military aspect of these relationships has maintained regional peace and stability over the past several decades and also helped promote economic and political development in the region. 1 VSM China's rapid and comprehensive military modernization challenges, I think, affect this very stable status quo. If nations come to doubt the U.S. abilities to fulfill its various treaty and legal obligations, regional actors could increasingly turn their intentions inward or engage in a kind of arms race that we don't really want to see. Some evidence suggests that the latter is actually underway. Fundamentally, this does relate to space, which is what we're going to talk about here today. The U.S. relies so heavily on space assets to carry out all of its military missions, particularly in distant theaters like the Pacific. Communications, reconnaissance and a host of other types of capabilities require satellite platforms and other types of space inputs. Defense planners view space itself increasingly as another domain of warfare just as they do land, air, sea and cyberspace. Satellites are now facing a range of potentially devastating threats, mostly from China's very sophisticated anti-satellite weapons programs and other means of interfering with space assets. They present the first -ever real challenge to the U.S. ability to use space since the Soviet Union. China is also beginning to effectively leverage its own space assets to enhance their own military capabilities, including precision strike weapons and other types of weaponry and capabilities that the U.S. has always had dominance in. I look forward to hearing more details about these developments today, and I'm confident
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