Declarer Play: NT contracts Ducking the Opening Lead (Part 2)

When the opposition is holding seven cards in a suit the most likely split is 4:3 (62%). This week’s tip shows how it is possible to use hold-up play to guard against the unlikely (30%) but potentially ruinous 5:2 split. Even experienced players can get this wrong. To understand this week’s tip you need to know what is meant by the term finesse. The Rule of 11 and Rule of 7 are explained again.

The Bidding You (south) are playing 3NT. The auction was not contested (the opposition just passed).

Opening lead = 6 This is what you see when dummy goes down: North  8 5  A 4 2  7 5 3 . A Q J 9 2 6 South (You)  A K Q 4  K Q 9  K Q 8 . 10 8 3

First rule of good card technique, count your tricks (winners) in each suit. The tricks you can be sure of are:

 A K Q 3 tricks  A K Q 3 tricks  (K and/or Q) 1 or 2 tricks . A 1 trick

….so you can be sure of 8/9 tricks. You obviously have no alternative but to play a low rag from dummy, but before you do…

Second rule of good card technique: make a plan.

Let’s start with the opening lead and what you can see in dummy.

1. What does the lead 6mean? Can you deduce anything from it? Assuming it was the 4th highest*, it means there are 5 cards higher than the 6 in the remaining hands (11-6=5). Since you have four of them ( K, Q, 8, 7), so the player on your right (E) must have just one** higher than the 6, ie one of the following: A or J or 10 or 9.

2. If E has the A (and plays it!), you are home and dry, since you will make all 9 tricks shown in the above box (plus - with this particular hand - overtricks in clubs).

*The Rule of 11 states that if the lead is the 4th highest card in a suit, you can subtract whatever value that card is from 11, and it will tell you the number of cards higher than that one in the remaining 3 hands. The rule of 11 is a mathematical certainty. The 4th highest is often a good card to lead in NT so it’s reasonable to assume that this is what W played here in the opening lead. **The Rule of 11 doesn’t guarantee that E (in this example) only holds one card in. It means that even if E has more than one, only one will be higher than the 6.

3. But if E only has the J (or 10 or 9) - a very much more likely possibility - you need to plan carefully for reasons explained in the box below.

There are only two possibilities: (i) Either you take the trick with the K or Q….. So now you have only guaranteed 8 tricks because the opposition are ready to pounce on your remaining Q(or K) with their A. You thus have no alternative but to try, either now or later, to finesse the K.So, you play a low . from your hand and the Q.(or J or 9) from dummy. If it loses to the K. from E, you risk going down*.  (ii) …or you don’t. (i.e. you duck the trick)….. Now you will win the contract whatever happens. If E returns a diamond you certainly lose your K(or Q) to the A, but you will win the next diamond trick with your Q/K. If you now try for the club finesse and it works, terrific - you make the contract! But if it doesn’t, equally terrific - you still make the contract. Why? Because if E is out of diamonds so they can’t be led back to W. Consequently W will be stuck with a lot of completely unusable potential winners.*

Trying to reason all this out at the bridge table is not easy, so here is a summary of the main points:

Summary  You’re declarer in 3NT  W makes an opening lead in your weakest suit in which you have only one definite stop.  Take any necessary finesse while you still have at least one certain winner in every suit so that you will be able to regain the lead if the finesse fails. To achieve this, duck the first round if necessary (and, if you have to, the second round as well).  If you can’t work out how many times to hold-up, be guided by the Rule of 7**.

* For those who like the detail: On this deal, if the  suit splits 4-3 you will make the contract under all circumstances. However, if your club finesse fails you will go down if the suit has split 5(W)-2(E) and you failed to duck the first trick. ** How many times is it necessary to hold-up? If in doubt try using The Rule of 7: add together all the cards which you have in the suit and subtract the total from 7. The result indicates the number of times you s should hold up. So in today’s example, once. It should only be used in NT contracts. It is not guaranteed to work every time so if you can work out a plan, like the one here, It’s probably safer than the Rule of 7