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Ogbonna Nkiru DN : CN = Webmaster’S Name O= University of Nigeria, Nsukka OU = Innovation Centre OGUADINMA JOSHUA JONES PG/M.Sc./13/66659 INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS FOR ASIAN PEACE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Digitally Signed by: Content manager’s Name Ogbonna Nkiru DN : CN = Webmaster’s name O= University of Nigeria, Nsukka OU = Innovation Centre 1 INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS FOR ASIAN PEACE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM. BY OGUADINMA JOSHUA JONES PG/M.Sc./13/66659 A PROJECT REPORT PRESENTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (M.Sc.) DEGREE IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NUSUKKA SUPERVISOR: PROF. OBASI IGWE OCTOBER, 2014. 2 TITLE PAGE INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS FOR ASIAN PEACE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM BY OGUADINMA JOSHUA JONES PG/M.Sc./13/66659 3 APPROVAL PAGE This project has been approved for the award of Master of Science degree (M.Sc) in political science By ---------------------- ----------------------- Prof. Jonah Onuoha Prof. Obasi Igwe (Head of Department) (Project Supervisor) ----------------------------------- (External Examiner) 4 DEDICATION To my lovely wife, Rita, and a great Teacher, Obasi Igwe. 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First, I give glory to almighty God for all his mercies in keeping me in good health throughout the period of research project. Second, I immensely owe a huge gratitude to my wife, my lover and best friend for all her encouragement and assistance to make this work possible. I equally appreciate my beautiful daughters, Ugochi and Kasie who have not relented in pushing me ahead. I equally wish to thank all my lecturers for their sound academic guidance and drilling. Most of all, my profound gratitude goes to Prof. Obasi Igwe for his mentorship and inspiration towards academic excellence. I cannot forget my typists for their enduring patience in making this huge task a reality. May God bless you all. TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 Title Page - - - - - - - - - - i Approval Page - - - - - - - - ii Dedication - - - - - - - - - - iii Acknowledgements - - - - - - - - - iv Table of Contents - - - - - - - - v List of Tables - - - - - - - - - - vii List of Figures - - - - - - - - - - viii Abbreviations - - - - - - - - - - ix Abstact - - - - - - - - - - xi CHAPTER ONE (INTRODUCTION) - - - - - - 1 1.1 Background of the Study - - - - - - - 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem - - - - - - - - 6 1.3 Objectives of the Study - - - - - - - - 18 1.4 Significance of the Study - - - - - - - - 18 CHAPTER TWO (LITERATURE REVIEW) - - - - - 39 2.1 Empirical Literature - - - - - - - - - 39 2.2 Theoretical Literature - - - - - - - - 67 2.3 Gaps in Literature -- - - - - - - - - 87 CHAPTER THREE (METHODOLOGY) - - - - - 88 3.1 Theoretical Framework - - - - - - - 88 3.2 Hypotheses - - - - - - - - 90 3.3 Research Design - - - - - - - - - 90 3.4 Method of Data Collection - - - - - - - 91 3.5 Method of Data Analysis - - - - - - - - 91 3.6 Logical Data Framework - - - - - - - - 122 CHAPTER FOUR - - - - - - - - 125 7 4.1 Scenarios of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan - - - 125 CHAPTER FIVE - - - - - - - - - - 146 5.1 Consequences of Nuclear War between India and Pakistan - - - 146 CHAPTER SIX - - - - - - - - - - 167 6.1 Measures to restore peaceful India-Pakistani Relations - - - - 167 CHAPTER SEVEN - - - - - - - - - 228 7.1 Summary - - - - - - - - - - 228 7.2 Recommendations - - - - - - - - 234 7.3 Conclusion - - - - - - - - - 235 Bibliography - - - - - - - - - - 237 Appendices 8 LIST OF TABLES • Estimated nuclear casualties for attacks in 10 large Indian and Pakistani cities • 15 Indian and Pakistani cities attacked with 24 nuclear warheads. 9 LIST OF FIGURES • Interactive Maps of Kashmir 10 ABBREVIATIONS LOC - Line of Control WMD – Weapons of Mass Destruction LET – Lakshar –E-Taiba INDO – India PAK – Pakistan C.I.A – Central Intelligence Agency PTI – Press Trust of India NPT – Nuclear-Non Proliferation Treaty. JKLF – Joint Kashmir Liberation Force NH – National Highway TNT – Trinitrotoluene (Explosive Toxic Compound) NRDC – Natural Resources Defence Council MAD – Mutual Assured Destruction PSR – Physicians for Social Responsibility MTCR – Missile Technology Control Regime CBM – Confidence Building Measures 11 MRBM – Medium Range Ballistic Missile MIND – Movement in India for Nuclear Disarmament UNSC – United Nations Security Council IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency CTBT – Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSG – Nuclear Supplies Group START – Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ABM – Anti-Ballistic Missile NWS – Nuclear Weapon States FMCT – Fissile Material Cut off Treaty GICNT – The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. PSI – Proliferation Security Initiative HEU – Highly Enriched Uranium 12 ABSTRACT The India-Pakistani perennial conflicts over the past six decades, in the struggle to possess Kashmir, have been posing serious problems to the international community. This anomaly in their relations has raised some crucial questions by this study such as: Does the continuing dispute between India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, carry the risk of nuclear war in Asia? Furthermore, would the resolution of the India-Pakistani dispute create the opportunity for the settlement of other boundary problems in Asia? In this context, this study was undertaken to determine whether the continuing dispute between India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, carries the risk of nuclear war in Asia. It will also establish if the resolution of the India-Pakistani dispute would create an opportunity for the settlement of other boundary problems in Asia. A literature review of books and articles in respect of the various wars were used to unveil the critical facts. To achieve this, the qualitative method of data collection and analysis was used. Afterwards, the study found out that religious fundamentalism had eroded peaceful relations between India and Pakistan. In a bid to describe the tenets of the study, the balance of power theory was employed as analytical framework. In line with these, it hypothetically held that the continuing dispute between India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, carries the risk of nuclear war in Asia. Again, that the resolution of the India-Pakistani dispute would create an opportunity for the settlement of other boundary problems in Asia. Finally, the study recommended that under a multilateral declaration, the withdrawn sovereignty and independence of the princely state of Kashmir and Jammu be restored by the UN, forcing India and Pakistan to withdraw their controls. Alternatively, the UN should permanently station their peace-keeping forces in the Line of Control to check the incessant infiltrations and resultant conflicts between them. 13 INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS FOR ASIAN PEACE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM. BY OGUADINMA JOSHUA JONES PG/M.Sc./13/66659 A PROJECT REPORT PRESENTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (M.Sc.) DEGREE IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NUSUKKA SUPERVISOR: PROF. OBASI IGWE 14 OCTOBER, 2014. TITLE PAGE INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS FOR ASIAN PEACE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM BY OGUADINMA JOSHUA JONES PG/M.Sc./13/66659 15 APPROVAL PAGE This project has been approved for the award of Master of Science degree (M.Sc) in political science By ---------------------- ----------------------- Prof. Jonah Onuoha Prof. Obasi Igwe (Head of Department) (Project Supervisor) ----------------------------------- (External Examiner) 16 DEDICATION To my lovely wife, Rita, and a great Teacher, Obasi Igwe. 17 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First, I give glory to almighty God for all his mercies in keeping me in good health throughout the period of research project. Second, I immensely owe a huge gratitude to my wife, my lover and best friend for all her encouragement and assistance to make this work possible. I equally appreciate my beautiful daughters, Ugochi and Kasie who have not relented in pushing me ahead. I equally wish to thank all my lecturers for their sound academic guidance and drilling. Most of all, my profound gratitude goes to Prof. Obasi Igwe for his mentorship and inspiration towards academic excellence. I cannot forget my typists for their enduring patience in making this huge task a reality. May God bless you all. TABLE OF CONTENTS 18 Title Page - - - - - - - - - - i Approval Page - - - - - - - - ii Dedication - - - - - - - - - - iii Acknowledgements - - - - - - - - - iv Table of Contents - - - - - - - - v List of Tables - - - - - - - - - - vii List of Figures - - - - - - - - - - viii Abbreviations - - - - - - - - - - ix Abstact - - - - - - - - - - xi CHAPTER ONE (INTRODUCTION) - - - - - - 1 1.1 Background of the Study - - - - - - - 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem - - - - - - - - 6 1.3 Objectives of the Study - - - - - - - - 18 1.4 Significance of the Study - - - - - - - - 18 CHAPTER TWO (LITERATURE REVIEW) - - - - - 39 2.1 Empirical Literature - - - - - - - - - 39 2.2 Theoretical Literature - - - - - - - - 67 2.3 Gaps in Literature -- - - - - - - - - 87 CHAPTER THREE (METHODOLOGY) - - - - - 88 3.1 Theoretical Framework - - - - - - - 88 3.2 Hypotheses - - - - - - - - 90 3.3 Research Design - - - - - - - - - 90 3.4 Method of Data Collection - - - - - - - 91 3.5 Method of Data Analysis - - - - - - - - 91 3.6 Logical Data Framework - - - - - - - - 122 CHAPTER FOUR - - - - - - - - 125 19 4.1 Scenarios of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan - - - 125 CHAPTER FIVE - - - - - - - - - - 146 5.1 Consequences of Nuclear War between India and Pakistan
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