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I INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS for ASIAN PEACE in the NEW

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I INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS for ASIAN PEACE in the NEW INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS FOR ASIAN PEACE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM. BY OGUADINMA JOSHUA JONES PG/M.Sc./13/66659 A PROJECT REPORT PRESENTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (M.Sc.) DEGREE IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA, NUSUKKA SUPERVISOR: PROF. OBASI IGWE OCTOBER, 2014. i TITLE PAGE INDIA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS FOR ASIAN PEACE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM BY OGUADINMA JOSHUA JONES PG/M.Sc./13/66659 ii APPROVAL PAGE This project has been approved for the award of Master of Science degree (M.Sc) in political science By ---------------------- ----------------------- Prof. Jonah Onuoha Prof. Obasi Igwe (Head of Department) (Project Supervisor) ----------------------------------- (External Examiner) iii DEDICATION To my lovely wife, Rita, and a great Teacher, Obasi Igwe. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First, I give glory to almighty God for all his mercies in keeping me in good health throughout the period of research project. Second, I immensely owe a huge gratitude to my wife, my lover and best friend for all her encouragement and assistance to make this work possible. I equally appreciate my beautiful daughters, Ugochi and Kasie who have not relented in pushing me ahead. I equally wish to thank all my lecturers for their sound academic guidance and drilling. Most of all, my profound gratitude goes to Prof. Obasi Igwe for his mentorship and inspiration towards academic excellence. I cannot forget my typists for their enduring patience in making this huge task a reality. May God bless you all. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page - - - - - - - - - - i Approval Page - - - - - - - - ii Dedication - - - - - - - - - - iii Acknowledgements - - - - - - - - - iv Table of Contents - - - - - - - - v List of Tables - - - - - - - - - - vii List of Figures - - - - - - - - - - viii Abbreviations - - - - - - - - - - ix Abstact - - - - - - - - - - xi CHAPTER ONE (INTRODUCTION) - - - - - - 1 1.1 Background of the Study - - - - - - - 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem - - - - - - - - 6 1.3 Objectives of the Study - - - - - - - - 18 1.4 Significance of the Study - - - - - - - - 18 CHAPTER TWO (LITERATURE REVIEW) - - - - - 39 2.1 Empirical Literature - - - - - - - - - 39 2.2 Theoretical Literature - - - - - - - - 67 2.3 Gaps in Literature -- - - - - - - - - 87 CHAPTER THREE (METHODOLOGY) - - - - - 88 3.1 Theoretical Framework - - - - - - - 88 3.2 Hypotheses - - - - - - - - 90 3.3 Research Design - - - - - - - - - 90 3.4 Method of Data Collection - - - - - - - 91 3.5 Method of Data Analysis - - - - - - - - 91 3.6 Logical Data Framework - - - - - - - - 122 vi CHAPTER FOUR - - - - - - - - 125 4.1 Scenarios of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan - - - 125 CHAPTER FIVE - - - - - - - - - - 146 5.1 Consequences of Nuclear War between India and Pakistan - - - 146 CHAPTER SIX - - - - - - - - - - 167 6.1 Measures to restore peaceful India-Pakistani Relations - - - - 167 CHAPTER SEVEN - - - - - - - - - 228 7.1 Summary - - - - - - - - - - 228 7.2 Recommendations - - - - - - - - 234 7.3 Conclusion - - - - - - - - - 235 Bibliography - - - - - - - - - - 237 Appendices vii LIST OF TABLES • Estimated nuclear casualties for attacks in 10 large Indian and Pakistani cities • 15 Indian and Pakistani cities attacked with 24 nuclear warheads. viii LIST OF FIGURES • Interactive Maps of Kashmir ix ABBREVIATIONS LOC - Line of Control WMD – Weapons of Mass Destruction LET – Lakshar –E-Taiba INDO – India PAK – Pakistan C.I.A – Central Intelligence Agency PTI – Press Trust of India NPT – Nuclear-Non Proliferation Treaty. JKLF – Joint Kashmir Liberation Force NH – National Highway TNT – Trinitrotoluene (Explosive Toxic Compound) NRDC – Natural Resources Defence Council MAD – Mutual Assured Destruction PSR – Physicians for Social Responsibility MTCR – Missile Technology Control Regime CBM – Confidence Building Measures x MRBM – Medium Range Ballistic Missile MIND – Movement in India for Nuclear Disarmament UNSC – United Nations Security Council IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency CTBT – Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSG – Nuclear Supplies Group START – Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ABM – Anti-Ballistic Missile NWS – Nuclear Weapon States FMCT – Fissile Material Cut off Treaty GICNT – The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. PSI – Proliferation Security Initiative HEU – Highly Enriched Uranium xi ABSTRACT The India-Pakistani perennial conflicts over the past six decades, in the struggle to possess Kashmir, have been posing serious problems to the international community. This anomaly in their relations has raised some crucial questions by this study such as: Does the continuing dispute between India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, carry the risk of nuclear war in Asia? Furthermore, would the resolution of the India-Pakistani dispute create the opportunity for the settlement of other boundary problems in Asia? In this context, this study was undertaken to determine whether the continuing dispute between India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, carries the risk of nuclear war in Asia. It will also establish if the resolution of the India-Pakistani dispute would create an opportunity for the settlement of other boundary problems in Asia. A literature review of books and articles in respect of the various wars were used to unveil the critical facts. To achieve this, the qualitative method of data collection and analysis was used. Afterwards, the study found out that religious fundamentalism had eroded peaceful relations between India and Pakistan. In a bid to describe the tenets of the study, the balance of power theory was employed as analytical framework. In line with these, it hypothetically held that the continuing dispute between India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, carries the risk of nuclear war in Asia. Again, that the resolution of the India-Pakistani dispute would create an opportunity for the settlement of other boundary problems in Asia. Finally, the study recommended that under a multilateral declaration, the withdrawn sovereignty and independence of the princely state of Kashmir and Jammu be restored by the UN, forcing India and Pakistan to withdraw their controls. Alternatively, the UN should permanently station their peace-keeping forces in the Line of Control to check the incessant infiltrations and resultant conflicts between them. xii xiii CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study The hope that the end of the Cold War would usher in a new world order in the form of international peace and security as well as economic prosperity to many parts of the world has not been realized following persistent and intractable disputes, which seem to have become a permanent feature in international relations up to this new millennium. The India-Pakistani dispute over the Kashmir region for the past six decades is one of the strong indications as regards the escalating erosion of peace and security in the global arena, especially in the South Asian subcontinent. As posited by Effendi, M.S (2010:3) “Many lives have been lost since the inception of these conflicts and the Kargil conflict of 1999 highlighted how perilously close the region could be to nuclear war, which would be devastating not only for both countries but also for the whole region. In this light, the normalization of relations between the two countries as well as the reduction of the mounting human and financial costs of the conflicts is highly needed and this, therefore, necessitates a speedy and sustainable resolution of the Kashmir issue.” This study, invariably, was undertaken to examine the impact of these conflicts on Asia and strategies for possible resolution. Historically, India and Pakistan have a long complicated relation with each other. When the British-India became independent, it was divided into two parts; areas consisting up to 75% of Muslims became Pakistan and the rest of the territory, India. This arrangement did not include the Princely States, one of which is Kashmir. The Princely States were at liberty to determine their own future; they could either join India or xiv Pakistan, or remain a separate state. The Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh Dogra, decided not to join India or Pakistan. The first war that broke out between these two countries in 1947, over Kashmir, a few weeks after the granting of independence, was caused by the action that Pakistan claimed to have sent emissaries to talk to Kashmir about their decision of autonomy. When this happened, the Indians were suspicious that Pakistan could try to invade Kashmir and sent their troops to help defend the state of Kashmir; though this claim was later discovered to be unfounded. The result of this first war involving Kashmir left Pakistan controlling 37%, while India controlled 63% of Kashmir. (Prasad and Dharm, 1987: 418). Since then, there have been other wars and conflicts of various kinds between these two neighbours which have generated so much tension and discord among their neighbouring countries such as China, Nepal, Bangladesh, (formerly East-Pakistan) Afghanistan, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The subsequent wars came in 1965, 1971 and 1999, respectively has made this study to be organized to look into the reasons why India and Pakistan have failed all strategies towards the settlement of perennial conflicts between them. The various wars of 1947 1965, 1971 and 1999 have become pointers to this fact and have, therefore, raised fears of more devastating wars that may ensue between them despite
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