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November 9, 2015 November 9, 2015 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) CJ CheilJedang (097950/Buy/TP: W530,000) KOSPI 2,025.70 -15.37 -0.75 Four key variables in 2016 KOSPI 200 249.21 -1.04 -0.42 KOSDAQ 671.84 -22.37 -3.22 CJ CGV (079160/Buy/TP: W150,000) New growth story to begin in 2016 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Lotte Himart (071840/Buy/TP: W100,000) KOSPI 435,389 6,058 Bet on earnings in the near term, and qualitative changes in the long term KOSPI 200 75,324 4,023 KOSDAQ 715,399 3,955 BNK Financial Group (138930/Buy/TP: W21,000) Market Cap (Wbn) In-line results Value KOSPI 1,283,556 DGB Financial Group (139130/Buy/TP: W17,400) KOSDAQ 192,050 Recovery of non-interest income is key KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Wonik IPS (030530/Buy/TP: W16,000) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,049 1,046 3 Semiconductor and OLED investment prospects are improving Institutional 758 946 -189 Retail 4,060 3,987 73 JB Financial Group (175330/Buy/TP: W8,500) Stabilizing earnings KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Jeju Air (089590/Buy/TP: W45,000) Initiate coverage Foreign 181 232 -51 Ready for takeoff Institutional 106 160 -54 Retail 3,639 3,536 104 Sector News & Analysis Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Airlines (Overweight) KOSPI 773 816 -42 October IIA data: Coming out of the MERS tunnel KOSDAQ 41 48 -7 Advances & Declines Economy & Strategy Update Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 138 698 37 Fixed Income Weekly KOSDAQ 135 940 31 Focus more on liquidity than on the Fed decision KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Hanmi Pharm 824,000 113,000 1,267 Hanmi Science 175,000 -3,000 613 Samsung Electronics 1,344,000 6,000 248 KODEX LEVERAGE 10,425 -80 117 Hynix 31,250 50 110 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value New Pride 15,700 3,600 255 Timo Technology 5,050 1,160 154 SHINHOO 7,730 -270 136 Kolon Life Science 190,600 -37,200 125 SEJONG TELECOM 2,520 100 120 Note: As of November 9, 2015 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. CJ CheilJedang (097950 KS) Four key variables in 2016 3Q15 review Food & Beverage For 3Q, CJ CheilJedang (CJCJ) reported a 13.2% YoY increase in revenue, a 30% YoY rise in operating profit , and a 248% YoY jump in net profit. Operating profit was in line with the consensus, but net profit fell short due to currency-related losses (W30.1bn). For Results Comment the company’s mainstay businesses (foodstuff, processed food, feed, biotech , and November 6, 2015 pharma), revenue and operating profit grew 14.6% and 29.5% YoY, respectively. The foodstuff and processed food units performed better than expected, but the biotech unit lagged behind. It is worth noting that the company’s net debt fell to W3.7tr ( or W5tr including CJ Korea Express), from W3.9tr (W5.3tr) at end-2014. (Maintain) Buy Foodstuff operating profit expanded 69.1% YoY, benefiting from lower grain prices . Target Price (12M, W) 530,000 Processed food revenue and operating profit increased 15.3% and 7.5% YoY , respectively, boosted by robust sales of new products (Bibigo, canned salmon, premium Dashida, pudding, etc.) and Chuseok holiday gift sets. Biotech operating profit grew Share Price (11/6/15, W) 362,000 124% YoY, but contracted 51.2% QoQ, as lysine, t ryptophan and threonine margins worsened due to price declines, offsetting the solid performance of methionine Expected Return 46% (utilization rose to the 80% level). Four key variables in 2016 OP (15F, Wbn) 823 Looking forward to 2016, we believe CJCJ’s share performance will largely hinge on 1) Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 845 lysine and methionine prices, 2) fluctuations in F/X rates and grain prices, 3) processed food margins, and 4) M&A activities. EPS Growth (15F, %) 147.0 Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 21.6 We think lysine prices could slightly pick up in 2016 (from US$1,250/tonne in 3Q15), P/E (15F, x) 23.0 given capacity cuts by China’s GBT and Eppen, and CJCJ’s price hike efforts (15% Market P/E (15F, x) 11.7 increase in July). We expect the lysine business to break even in 2016. As for methionine, we see ASP remaining similar to 2015 levels at US$5/kg. The company’s KOSPI 2,041.07 methionine plant should run at full capacity from 4Q15. For 2016, we forecast Market Cap (Wbn) 4,763 methionine revenue at around W400bn (assuming 80,000 tonnes at US$5/kg) and OP Shares Outstanding (mn) 14 margin at 25%. Free Float (%) 59.0 We expect the average US$/W rate to slightly rise YoY to 1,200 in 2016. Grain prices Foreign Ownership (%) 20.4 should also move marginally higher in 2016. But given the limited extent of the Beta (12M) 0.96 increases, we think any negative impact on shares will be short-lived. 52-Week Low 303,000 Looking at processed food, we anticipate r evenue growth to decelerate to 6.8% YoY, 52-Week High 458,500 but operating profit should outpace revenue, expanding 11.9 % YoY on the effects of (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M marketing initiatives executed in 2015 and the stable footing of new products. Absolute -10.4 -14.1 -3.1 Another important factor will be M&A activities. As the CJ Group seeks M&A deals (e.g. Relative -12.6 -11.4 -8.0 Coway) domestically and overseas, there will be much interest in who the buyer will be and the specifics of deal financing. 130 CJ CheilJedang KOSPI 120 Maintain Buy and TP of W530,000 110 CJCJ’s key earnings determinants are biotech prices, F/X rates, and processed food 100 profits. 1) Biotech profit is expected to grow in 2016 on stronger methionine sales, 2) 90 the US$/W rate has been stabilizing since October, and 3) processed food sales are 80 better than ever. And with an attractive valuation relative to other processed food 70 11.14 3.15 7.15 11.15 names (Ottogi, Dongwon F&B, Pulmuone, etc.), we think CJCJ offers good long-term investment potential. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 9,878 10,848 11,702 12,981 14,067 14,982 [F&B/Tobacco] OP (Wbn) 616 345 580 823 893 979 Woon-mok Baek OP margin (%) 6.2 3.2 5.0 6.3 6.3 6.5 +822-768-4158 NP (Wbn) 255 117 92 228 293 390 [email protected] EPS (W) 17,691 8,089 6,369 15,728 20,203 26,904 ROE (%) 9.0 4.0 3.1 7.4 8.9 10.8 P/E (x) 20.1 34.2 48.1 23.0 17.9 13.5 P/B (x) 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. CJ CGV (079160 KS) New growth story to begin in 2016 Entertainment 3Q15 review: CGV China remains in the black For 3Q, CJ CGV announced consolidated revenue of W358bn (+16.3% YoY ) and Results Comment operating profit of W38.9bn (+15% YoY). CGV China posted a profit (W2.3bn) for the November 9, 2015 second straight quarter, while subsidiary CJ 4DPLEX also recorded a profit (W1.6bn). Based on a simple sum of all local sites, CGV China’s 3Q revenue jumped 84% YoY. The company currently has a total of 56 sites in China and is expected to open eight more by (Maintain) Buy year-end. Non-consolidated domestic revenue grew 4% YoY, but operating profit fell 1% YoY, weighed down by MERS-related sterilization expenses and higher marketing spend. Target Price (12M, W) 150,000 Indonesia- and 4DPLEX-driven growth story to begin in 2016 Share Price (11/6/15, W) 107,000 CJ CGV acquired a stake in Indonesia’s Blitzmegaplex (renamed CGV Blitz) in 2014, with the option to buy additional shares through 2017.
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