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Earth-Science Reviews Earth-Science Reviews Predicting shoreline depositional process regimes using insights from palaeotidal modelling --Manuscript Draft-- Manuscript Number: Article Type: Review Article Keywords: Numerical Modelling; Wave; Tide; Fluvial; Palaeotidal; Mixed process; Shoreline; Deltaic; Shelf; Sedimentary Preservation Corresponding Author: Daniel Collins Shell International Ltd London, London UNITED KINGDOM First Author: Daniel Collins Order of Authors: Daniel Collins Alexandros Avdis Martin H. Wells Andrew J. Mitchell Peter A. Allison Howard D. Johnson Gary J. Hampson Jon Hill Christopher D. Dean Matthew D. Piggott Abstract: Tides are a fundamental element of predictive depositional models of ancient shoreline process regimes. These models principally relate ancient tidal potential to shelf width (c. 10–100 km) and shoreline geometry (c. 1–10 km) but rarely consider larger-scale basin physiography (100–1000 km) or variability related to changing shoreline geometry. A refined predictive decision tree for ancient shoreline process regimes is developed based on a review of modern shoreline processes, supported by new insight from numerical palaeotidal modeling studies. Modern depositional shorelines are overwhelmingly wave dominated, suggesting a first-order control of wave fetch and wave-generating wind conditions on shoreline processes. Several numerical palaeotidal modeling studies highlight the following controls on tidal processes: (1) 100–1000 km-scale basin physiography on tidal inflow versus outflow; (2) 10–100 km- scale shelf physiography on shelf tidal resonance potential; (3) tidal amplification (funnelling and shoaling) versus frictional effects in shoreline embayments (1–10 km scale); and (4) palaeogeographic uncertainty, which affects prediction of these latter three controls. The predictive decision tree considers the effects of basin physiography, shelf width and shoreline morphology on wave, tide and fluvial processes separately. The two-tier classification of process regime in the decision tree (limited to primary and secondary processes) reflects uncertainty and ambiguity in applying three-tier process classification schemes to modern shorelines and, especially, to ancient shoreline deposits. This review demonstrates the benefit of numerical tidal modeling, calibrated by integrated comparison to the preserved stratigraphic record, and offers a refined classification and prediction of shoreline process regimes. Wider and consistent utilisation of these concepts, and numerical simulations of other depositional processes, will further improve process-based classifications and predictions of modern and ancient shoreline systems. Suggested Reviewers: Valentina Marzia Rossi [email protected] Mixed-process shoreline-shelf systems Shahin Dashtgard Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation Simon Fraser University - Surrey [email protected] Mixed-process shoreline-shelf systems Bruce Ainsworth Chevron Corp [email protected] Mixed-process shoreline-shelf systems Robert Dalrymple [email protected] Mixed-process shoreline systems with focus on tidal systems Chris Paola [email protected] Numerical modelling of sedimentary systems Opposed Reviewers: Powered by Editorial Manager® and ProduXion Manager® from Aries Systems Corporation Cover Letter Daniel S. Collins Shell International Ltd Shell Centre, London SE1 7NA 14th July 2020 [email protected] Dear Editor, We are pleased to submit our manuscript entitled ‘Predicting shoreline depositional process regimes using insights from palaeotidal modelling’ for your consideration as an original research article. The submitted manuscript is a timely review of three intersecting facets of recent shoreline– shelf sedimentological and stratigraphic research: 1. Classification and prediction of modern and ancient shorelines in terms of mixed process (fluvial, wave, tide) dynamics; 2. Calibration of numerical simulations of shoreline processes by process-based interpretations of the preserved facies and stratigraphic record; and 3. Understanding the sensitivity of tides to physiographic controls. Through a review of three palaeotidal modelling case studies, the overall aim is to demonstrate the benefit of numerical simulations of ancient shoreline processes, calibrated by integrated comparison to the preserved stratigraphic record, in improving and refining classification and prediction of process regimes of modern and ancient shoreline systems. The three case studies investigated ancient tides in strongly contrasting geological settings and on various spatial and temporal scales: (1) the Oligocene–Miocene South China Sea (SCS); (2) the Early Cretaceous Lower Greensand Seaway, NW Europe; and (3) the Late Cretaceous Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, Central Europe. The comparison between palaeotidal model results and sedimentological and stratigraphic data in the rock record establishes the strengths, limitations and potential biases of the numerical simulation approach. Last, the implications of palaeotidal model simulations provide an updated framework for classification and prediction of shoreline depositional process regime to test against future modelling approaches for assessing ancient tidal, wave and additional shoreline sedimentary processes. The paper is widely applicable to understanding modern shoreline processes, especially tides, and interpreting ancient mixed-process shoreline systems. This has applied significance on multiple fronts, for example: understanding modern shoreline dynamics, with implications for shoreline stability during climate and sea level change; and petroleum exploration and production, where predicting and characterising ancient shoreline–shelf depositional processes is vital to reconstructing depositional models, including reservoir, seal and source rock facies distribution. The authors have no conflict of interests to declare. We look forward to hearing the outcome of your assessment in due course. Yours sincerely, Daniel S. Collins (corresponding author and on behalf of all co-authors) Information on submission: Number of words in main text and captions: 25,864 Number of figures: 31 Number of tables: 4 Number of Supplementary figures: 1 Highlights HIGHLIGHTS Rivers, waves and tides impact sediment dynamics along shorelines Modern shoreline dynamics are overwhelmingly wave dominated Tides are controlled by basin, shelf and shoreline physiography Paleotidal models can be calibrated to preserved facies and stratigraphy Numerical models refine classifications and prediction of shoreline process regimes Abstract ABSTRACT Tides are a fundamental element of predictive depositional models of ancient shoreline process regimes. These models principally relate ancient tidal potential to shelf width (c. 10– 100 km) and shoreline geometry (c. 1–10 km) but rarely consider larger-scale basin physiography (100–1000 km) or variability related to changing shoreline geometry. A refined predictive decision tree for ancient shoreline process regimes is developed based on a review of modern shoreline processes, supported by new insight from numerical palaeotidal modelling studies. Modern depositional shorelines are overwhelmingly wave dominated, suggesting a first-order control of wave fetch and wave-generating wind conditions on shoreline processes. Several numerical palaeotidal modelling studies highlight the following controls on tidal processes: (1) 100–1000 km-scale basin physiography on tidal inflow versus outflow; (2) 10–100 km-scale shelf physiography on shelf tidal resonance potential; (3) tidal amplification (funnelling and shoaling) versus frictional effects in shoreline embayments (1– 10 km scale); and (4) palaeogeographic uncertainty, which affects prediction of these latter three controls. The predictive decision tree considers the effects of basin physiography, shelf width and shoreline morphology on wave, tide and fluvial processes separately. The two-tier classification of process regime in the decision tree (limited to primary and secondary processes) reflects uncertainty and ambiguity in applying three-tier process classification schemes to modern shorelines and, especially, to ancient shoreline deposits. This review demonstrates the benefit of numerical tidal modelling, calibrated by integrated comparison to the preserved stratigraphic record, and offers a refined classification and prediction of shoreline process regimes. Wider and consistent utilisation of these concepts, and numerical simulations of other depositional processes, will further improve process-based classifications and predictions of modern and ancient shoreline systems. Manuscript File Click here to view linked References 1 2 3 4 5 1 Predicting shoreline depositional process regimes using insights 6 7 8 2 9 from palaeotidal modelling 10 11 1,2 2 3 2 12 3 Daniel S. Collins , Alexandros Avdis , Martin H. Wells , Andrew J. Mitchell , Peter A. 13 14 4 Allison2, Howard D. Johnson2, Gary J. Hampson2, Jon Hill4, Christopher D. Dean5, and 15 16 5 Matthew D. Piggott2 17 18 19 6 1 Shell International Ltd, London, SE1 7NA, UK 20 21 7 2 Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington 22 23 24 8 Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK 25 26 9 3 BP plc, Chertsey Road, Sunbury-on-Thames, Middlesex TW16 7LN, UK 27 28 4 29 10 Environment Department, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK 30 31 11 5School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, 32 33 34 12 Birmingham,
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